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![]() | Calendars for market moving eventsPlease note that different events have varying degrees of importance to the market. These calendars all contain the most important events -- which one you decide to use is a personal preference.Investing.com Forex Factory MarketWatch Newsfeed for active news traders (paid)TradeXchange Affiliate Link ($99/3 months) News sourcesBloomberg newsletter subscriptions - few people have recommended "Five Things to Start Your Day"https://www.marketwatch.com/ https://finance.yahoo.com/ https://finviz.com/ - if you type in the symbol, you'll find relevant news articles and StockTwit comments at the bottom of the page News sources (Twitter, misc.)Community member post: A free method to find news fast using TweetDeckWalter Bloomberg Discord - click on the Discord icon About the FOMCDaytraders need to know that the FOMC statement and conference causes volatility in the market. Please reference the 5-minute chart on past FOMC days to get an idea of what kind of volatility one can expect. March 15, 2017 FOMC statement November 2, 2022 FOMC statement Investopedia article on the FOMC Please read the Investopedia article if you are unfamiliar with the FOMC. Official CME FedWatch Tool This is the website gives a countdown to the next FOMC, as well as the projected target rates according to the rates futures market. While the FOMC meeting actually begins on Tuesday, the statement is released on Wednesday at 14:00, and the press conference is held at 14:30. Traders should be concerned with market volatility surrounding the statement release, which occurs on FOMC Wednesday at 14:00, and once again at 14:30 when the press conference is held. This is unrelated to the release of FOMC minutes, which is also a market moving event (albeit less significant than the FOMC statement). Official Federal Reserve Calendar This is the official website of the Federal Reserve, and it contains download links for FOMC statements and minutes for your reading pleasure. About the CPIDaytraders need to know that when the market is concerned about inflation, the CPI release can be market moving.June 10, 2022 CPI (market is very concerned about inflation) July 11, 2019 CPI (market is less concerned with inflation) Investopedia article on the CPI Official release schedule of the CPI The CPI number is always released at 8:30 AM during pre-market hours. You must use your Calendar of market moving events (see the first section of this post) to verify the day it's released each month. |
![]() | PARTs summary: (will add links as these posts go live). submitted by Elegant-Remote6667 to Superstonk [link] [comments] part 1- january part 2 - february Part 3 - march +list of great apes and the DD they brought (from jan 2021 to current) part 4 - april part 5 -may part 6 -june 2021 part 7 july 2021 part 8 august 2021 part 9 september 2021 (DRS REALLY STARTS OFF HERE) part 10 October -2021 part 11- november part 12 - December (2021) Part 13- January 2022 (the wise ape is here) part 14- February 2022 Part 15- March 2022 Part 16- APril to June 2022 part 17 -summary Hello everyone, Ape historian here with the biggest fricking post to date. the way i wrote this post out was to use my dashboard that i hope everyone now knows about. For those nee a backstory - i am ape historian - i have been archiving the gme subs on my site and via my setup (reached 90tb total usable space a few days ago! massive milestone) and I am backing everything up. i am now going back in tiem to recreate the events from the sneeze to now, and this post is FEB/ MARCH time. END OF FEBRUARYthe deletions continue for those who havent seen my previous two posts - if you dont have a permalink to a delted post you cannot get it from wayback machine or any backup - AND ITS NOT SEARCHABLE. thats the important point - its not searchable. Now posts get deleted for various reasons and I am not saying that all delted posts are suspicious . but int he aggregate i find it strange that a lot of POPcorn posts and silver posts stayed up on the original uusb sub - and you can freely check out my dashboard and doouble check me on this. but the dd for gme was "deleted"- or so they thought. here is what this dude had to say: POST START Disclaimer: This is not financial advice, and much of this information is not my own, sourced from other DD’s, many that have been removed. As many of you know, on the 17th of this month, Interactive Brokers Chairman Thomas Peterffy had a CNBC interview (Automod won't let me link it?) where he goes on to explain the fundamentals of the short squeeze. However, this whole ordeal might be a whole lot bigger than we had ever imagined. Tom (or should we go with Tommy?) goes on to illustrate the idea that they had to regulate the stock, as if they had not it would have caused a collapse of the entire market. While Tom might very well be simply lying to us to give an excuse, let’s play his game, and ponder this idea for a second. Tom states without the regulation, brokers would have been obligated to deliver 270 million shares, while only 50 million shares existed. 540% of shares. Vlad, CEO of RobinHood, also told us that on the day of the halt they had an order volume of 3 Billion, that they could not fulfill. Tom continues the interview, admitting that without the regulation, GameStop stock would have surged into the thousands, yes plural. Maybe the reason all of this has truly become such a battle, is because of how seriously scared the other side of the trade really is. Finra’s latest short interest update gives us a value of 78.46%. However, there are many reasons why this could be falsely construed. For one, Finra had announced new ways of calculating short interest, letting the synthetic longs drive this down. Another reason this may be low is this data is not fully up-to-date and does not take into account the fall from 100 to where we are now. So, what is the true short interest then? Well, let’s take breakdown GME share ownership alongside the findings of corrode1024 DD- Insider Ownership: 23,704,787 Institutions: 151,000,000 Funds: 40,000,000 Retail: 38,595,000 Total Owned: 253,299,787 Total Outstanding: 69,746,960 Percentage of ownership to outstanding: 363.17% Estimated Synthetic Shares: 183,552,827 FINRA Short % of Float: 78.46% Finviz Float: 50,650,000 Reported Shares Shorted: 35,538,624 Total Estimated Short (Synthetic + Reported) 219,091,451 Percentage of Shorts to the Float: 432.56% If you would like a deeper breakdown of corrode1024’s data, check out his DD. But yes, the short interest may be a whopping ~432.56%. Last week, u/thabat (yes -the thabat you know who Now, I know, lol. Let’s not get ahead of ourselves. That is a completely crazy fucking number. I mean, right? It has to be? But I mean, if this whole thing really is bigger than we thought, and it really could cause an entire collapse of the markets. This could be one of the biggest exchanges of wealth in the history of the world. If SI really is ~400%, shorts covering at infinitely higher and higher prices certainly could drive it up to astronomical heights. the image from that post - courtesy of wayback machine. If this is what our models show, imagine the models and algorithms these big firms have. This may very well be why they are so frightened. They have dug themselves into a hole below bedrock. All of this seems to line up with what Vlad and Tom have now told us. Without regulation, this squeeze will be the Mother of all Short Squeezes. So now, alongside our Dogfather Cohen, we shall wait patiently for a catalyst. Just like on the last squeeze to $483, we required a catalyst to get us there. Don’t forget the information we knew in November and December. Board spots are opening up in July which Cohen will take advantage of, Cohen could up his stake. Earnings in March. Who knows what could happen. It is important to remember the gaming industry is the largest industry in the world, and we are still in its infancy. Older generations continue to laugh down the importance of gaming, but as our generation grows up gaming is only going to evolve and get bigger. GameStop is the only retailer dedicated to gaming and has a surplus of centers that big competitors like Amazon do not. We are basically right back where we were in NovembeDecember. The stock price does not matter. If short interest is at 400%, or if short interest is at 80%. Both are insanely high SI values, and a squeeze is inevitable, one that sends us to 500 or one that sends us to 50,000. With high short interest, a squeeze is inevitable. NEVER forget that. So, continue to hold fellow apes. May your hands turn to diamonds and your balls to steel. 💎🙌 Edit: Also don't forget the other CNBC interview with our boy Tommy where he also admitted that they halted to save themselves. Or the CNBC interview with Vlad where he said it multiple times assuredly that it WAS NOT a liquidity issue, but that is his reasoning now. (You can find these 2 interviews on youtube, AutoMod wont let me link youtube) Ape historian superfind 10: this video shows up again - https://youtu.be/RfEuNHVPc_k?t=5419 remember the hearing - well here is the point where they tried to setup DFV to say something. and DFV wasnt taking it. from \"Why GameStop was going to cause a collapse of the entire market, and why it is still going to:\" the above post mentioned corrode1024 didnt it - lets have a look - i need more wrinkles than i have to understand this all. corrode mentions aah_soy whom we did see in our previous part 2 of the post where he accurately figured out synthetic shortselling - a FUCKING YEAR before most of the apes figured out what that meant. but somehow his account got deleted. nevermind. u/jeepers_sheepers finds at the early start of feb 2021 that XRT, you know - THAT XRT has an SI of 800%. post title - "XRT is being used to hide GME shorts. XRT currently sits at 190% SHORT FLOAT. Peaking on 2/1 at over 800% SHORT FLOAT!!" somehow also deleted and we saw this post in part 2. strange. huh what could it possibly be? but if you search on my dashboard you will have the post. the post also mentions that there already was an archive before my time - on stonking.info - but that got taken down. or did it? heh not from me. you see how this shit gets hard to pindown once "deleted" is on the menu? you can se how if i didnt have access to all the subs, full search, and wayback machine there is NO FUCKING WAY i would find this. ever.https://web.archive.org/web/2021*/stonking.infothe site is dead but here is what was posted: https://web.archive.org/web/20210220162502/https://www.stonking.info/post/evidence-that-gme-shorts-are-not-covering part1 \"the first mention of synthetic shares that i can find\". and before sec decides to wipe that 2013 paper off here is the link to it- https://www.sec.gov/about/offices/ocie/options-trading-risk-alert.pdf https://web.archive.org/web/20210215001445/https://www.sec.gov/about/offices/ocie/options-trading-risk-alert.pdf and here is another article from tradesmith daily -https://web.archive.org/web/20210225044538/https://tradesmithdaily.com/investing-strategies/the-drop-in-gamestop-short-interest-could-be-real-or-deceptive-market-manipulation/ \"the hedge funds can use tricks to make it look like they have covered their shorts- even if they havent\" - this is from the sec document. Fun huh? so we have in feb of 2021 already some understanding about how hedgies are manipulating THE PERCIEVED SHORT INTERESST IN GME WITH XRT SHORTING AND SYNTHETIC LONGS. remember this prhase it will come in usefull later. in march stonking will come back with more points around synthetic shares, counterfeight shares and phantom shares. fuck i have read some of this but never sat down to read it all.just reminding everyone that all this is available on this dashboard - free to access, no license, no tracking. full post search on the left, title and author search on the right. subreddit and date dropdowns. MARCH - the day of runups and the birth of the stonk and AMAs!for this one you need to remember phantom shares,and a few other keywords.u/atobitt publishes the everything short and citadel has no clothes: but actually they dont make it to superstonk until a little later as a repost. go read both of those posts, its required reading. in short - "The EVERYTHING Short" "TL;DR- Citadel and friends have shorted the treasury bond market to oblivion using the repo market. Citadel owns a company called Palafox Trading and uses them to EXCLUSIVELY short & trade treasury securities. Palafox manages one fund for Citadel - the Citadel Global Fixed Income Master Fund LTD. Total assets over $123 BILLION and 80% are owned by offshore investors in the Cayman Islands. Their reverse repo agreements are ENTIRELY rehypothecated and they CANNOT pay off their own repo agreements until someone pays them, first. The ENTIRE global financial economy is modeled after a fractional reserve system that is beginning to experience THE MOTHER OF ALL MARGIN CALLS. THIS is why the DTC and FICC are requiring an increase in SLR deposits. The madness has officially come full circle." "Citadel Has No Clothes" TL;DR - Citadel Securities has been fined 58 times for violating FINRA, REGSHO & SEC regulations. Several instances are documented as 'willful' naked shorting. In Dec 2020 they reported an increase in their short position of 127.57% YOY, and I'm calling bullsh*t on their shenanigans. Ape historian superfind 11: CITADEL basically does whatever it wants and isnt afraid to show it - more than a year later. and -einfachman- did a stellar piece of DD https://www.reddit.com/Superstonk/comments/v0zrni/burning_cash/ -and all the DD's here. and of course this one: https://www.reddit.com/Superstonk/comments/v4wxkb/i_spoke_with_a_former_citadel_client_heres_what/ but i digress lets get back to march shall we - Wed Mar 17 2021 16:32:47 GMT+0000 (Greenwich Mean Time) Post title "THIS IS HUGE: RobinHood NEVER OWNED YOUR GME SHARES, they got margin called $3B to cover the shares they needed to buy!" - you can always search for post titles in my dashboard to find the OG post and all the backup links. funny how this keep getting deleted. why? are people really deleting their dd with 40k upvotes? here is the wayback link: hehe you thought it was lost. \"THIS IS HUGE: RobinHood NEVER OWNED YOUR GME SHARES, they got margin called $3B to cover the shares they needed to buy!\" There is a post that this post links- "the post is titled "robinhood the missing link" on the 17th march 2021- and its in my dashboard as well. \"In this scenario, RobinHood continuously sends order flow buy and sell orders to Citadel (I'm just using Citadel as a name, it could be any market maker). When a trader enters a buy order, that order is sent to the MM, and the price is set for the trade and the trader is given access to their shares at the current price. RobinHood has fulfilled their agreement to best-price, and the MM paid for the order, and the customer has access to their shares.\" this was posted by u/theguyonthereddits the main point here is this: But that doesn't mean that the MM actually went through with purchasing or selling those share orders yet. They paid for the order, but they only need to execute it "in a reasonable time". https://financialservices.house.gov/uploadedfiles/hhrg-117-ba00-wstate-arnuks-20210317.pdf "2) They recently changed their PFOF method from one giving them a set payment per share to one giving them a percentage of the spread instead. Think about this: A Robinhood trader wants the spread in the stocks he/she is trading to be as narrow as possible. The HFT market maker buying those orders benefit most when that spread is as wide as possible. And now Robinhood benefits most when the spread is as wide as possible as well! This is an amazing misalignment of interests. " "While PFOF is legal, we have long wondered how it possibly could be. How can a broker, charged with the duty of getting its clients the best available prices, possibly do so by selling that client’s orders to amazingly sophisticated HFT firms, who in turn will make billions of dollars trading against these orders?" Forex brokers and MMs are well-known to take inverse positions to retail trades. I think RobinHood was as well. CFD brokers have to delta hedge their actual holdings as their clients positions become profitable. As long as the clients are losing money, there is no reason to ever buy the securities, as the position is just going to lose money anyways. CFD brokers will only buy the security you own if that security starts becoming profitable and it will cost RobinHood more money to buy the share later. They are basically shorting your shares on their books. "While retail brokers and market making firms, claim that price improvement (PI) accrues to retail investor orders, such price improvement is a flawed calculation:
"It should surprise no one that investor orders do not dominate these races; HFT Market makers do. Investors’ orders typically find themselves further back in the queue. As a result, investors miss opportunities at buying cheaper stock, and when they do get filled they are subject to outsized adverse selection. Despite this, brokers representing investors still route largely to these exchanges for that rebate." Once RobinHood sells your orders to Citadel, Citadel can buy or sell the needed shares on any exchange they want to, to get themselves the best spread on the price difference. WHEN YOU BUY SHARES ON ROBINHOOD, YOU ARE NOT AFFECTING THE ACTUAL MARKET ORDERS. Your shares that you are buying/selling get collected by Citadel, and they can then buy/sell as they see fit with those orders. Citadel can collect a large batch of buy orders, and then BUY those shares on a dark pool exchange that DOES NOT DRIVE UP THE ACTIVE MARKET PRICE. And they can also collect large sell orders into one large batch, and then SELL those shares on the ACTUAL MARKET WHICH ACTUALLY DOES DRIVE THE ACTIVE PRICE DOWN. That is why you can see huge dumps on days with the SSR active and no large selling volume. Citadel/MM are capable of keeping ALL of the buying pressure OFF of the open exchanges, while simultaneously loading up sell orders to dump at once ON the open exchanges. "• In January 2021, a record 47.19% of US stock-market volume traded “off-exchange and on February 9th we hit an all-time record of 50.47%, with retail representing 1/3rd of total US ADV" Over 50% of all trading activity is done off-exchange. And retail is 1/3 of the total daily volume. They can literally keep 100% of retail buy orders routed through these MM off of the open exchanges, to avoid YOUR buy orders from driving the price up in real-time. I will stop doing the copy pasta here but that post is definitely worth a read. Ape historian superfind 12: hmm it might be that robinhood never owned the shares- this would explain the PCO. but lets continue in the next part of the series end of march - coourtesy of u/broccaaa - welcome to synthetic shares writeup. post title -"The naked shorting scam update: selling nude like its 2021"from u/broccaaa: "This post updates the possibility of a naked shorting scam with massive hidden FTDs and short interest in 2021. By looking at SEC rules and academic papers I show that rule changes do not stop the potential abuses of naked short selling in a material way. Rather they slightly modify how it could be done and optimized. The changes also make the scheme less sustainable on the short side and over time pressure might "coil the spring" and lead to an unprecedented FTD squeeze.With current rules:
Note: this is not financial advice. I am not a cat. I read some papers and made some interpretations. Any number of these could be flawed and wrong. Make your own mind up. Introduction The post I wrote yesterday was based on an economics paper looking at naked short practices that abused options market maker privileges. The paper was written in 2007 and took Overstock shares as an example of of a stock with massive short share fuckery. Here is a great Rolling Stone article showing court documents confirming the illegal short seller activity in Overstock. Despite the clear similarities with GME in 2021certain SEC rules have changed since the paper was written. Which short selling rules have changed and could a modified version of the scam be happening in 2021? With some help from other apes in the comments and a little extra research I'd like to clarify this and provide some thoughts on what might be going on today. SEC rules on short selling and the changes made up until 2006 ( amendments to Regulation SHO under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 ) Regulation SHO, which became fully effective on January 3, 2005, set forth a regulatory framework governing short sales. One of the goals of this was to target potentially abusive “naked” short selling practices in certain equity securities. Additional regulation was put in place to limit the selling of securities without first finding a valid share to borrow. The 2005 implementation failed miserably. A fantastic letter was written in December 2003 by former Undersecretary of Commerce Robert Shapiro and forwarded to the SEC. In the letter Shapiro detailed findings from his own research and his doubts that the proposed changes in the SEC rules would have any material impact on the abusive practices: Ape historian superfind 13: and we get our first introduction to "phantom shares" - https://web.archive.org/web/20190623164454/http://rgmcom.com/articles/PhantomShares.pdfperhaps the most interesting part of that pdf i just posted is the TREND FOR FTDs is going up while clearly the advancement in technology is also going up from 2005 to 2007- so the question is - WHY? why is it going up? is it profiable? and yes every post mentioned here is backed up. In part 5 i will introduce the ipfs archives. its taking a whileApe historian superfind 14: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2867383 "(Naked) Short Selling Around Earnings AnnouncementAND THIS Ape historian superfind 15: https://www.proquest.com/openview/b7759a0d7c621f67d82668197d99c379/1?pq-origsite=gscholar&cbl=18750&diss=y Ape historian superfind 16: AND ANOTHER POST - "Naked Short Selling: The Truth Is Much Worse Than You Have Been Told" \"Naked Short Selling: The Truth Is Much Worse Than You Have Been Told\"-exceprt. so to sum up- this shows in a simple way that actually - apes were right. a few months after this date AMAs from Lucy and Wes and Dr Trimbath will start to unravel this shitstorm. and of course the smithonstocks linksSuperstonk by end of march 2021 had 63 posts. April is where the real shit hides.Ape historian. in comes the first mention of DRS -by Austins-Reddit on 01/Mar /2021. post title "GME Paper Stock Certificates through "ComputerShare" after transferring from TDA"The post below is what i wanted to reach out to you about: "Buy & Hold 2.0 - A theory on how locating REAL shares may trigger a domino effect."oh- \"Buy & Hold 2.0 - A theory on how locating REAL shares may trigger a domino effect.\" -deleted again. funny that. that post from the archives - well the excerpt is below: computershare was postulated by at least one ape in march 2021. TLDR- this entire research peice is fully available - just use my dashbaord and start searching for yourself - this is NOT the only things that happened. this is the main things that I feel accoring to me were most important. standby for part 4. ape historian-destroyer of free disk space |
Sluggish economic and earnings growth will be a theme in markets in the week ahead, as investors await a Fed interest rate cut at the end of the month.
More than a quarter of the S&P 500 companies report earnings in the coming week, the second big week of the second quarter reporting season. FAANG names, like Alphabet and Amazon, and blue chips from McDonald’s to Boeingand United Technologies are among the more than 130 companies reporting.
There is also some key economic data, including Friday’s second quarter GDP, which should show a slowing to 1.8% from the first quarter’s 3.1% pace, according to Refinitiv. On Thursday, durable goods are reported and will include an update on businesses investment. There are also existing home sales Tuesday, new home sales Wednesday and advance economic indicators Thursday.
But there will be no Fed speakers, after a parade of central bank officials in the past week, including Fed Chair Jerome Powell. The most impactful comments, however, came Thursday from New York Fed President John Williams, who set off a debate about how much the Fed could cut rates at its July 30-31 meeting — 25 or 50 basis points.
Even as the New York Fed later said Williams comments were not about current policy, market pros took heed of his words about how central bankers should “act quickly.”
Fed dominates Fed officials do not speak publicly in the days ahead of policy meetings, but market pros will find plenty to debate. Fed funds futures were predicting a 43% chance of a 50 basis point cut in July, after shooting as high as 70% Thursday afternoon.
“For sure, the Fed is going to dominate for next week. I think we’ll get at least a 25 basis point cut. I’m thinking we’re not going to get 50 basis point cut...The Fed has been burned when it’s been bold,” said Tony Roth, chief investment officer at Wilmington Trust.
Roth said he believes the market is already pricing in a quarter-point cut, and he does not see the Fed’s rate cut as much of a longer-term catalyst for stocks. If it trims by a half percentage point, he expects just a short-term pop.
Economists believe the Fed will cut interest rates even though recent data has improved. That’s in part because Powell has stressed the Fed is focused on the global economic slowdown, trade wars and low inflation, and that it will do what it takes to keep the economy expanding.
“The only real catalyst that would really help the market would be if there was a trade deal with China,” Roth said. “I think the likelihood of that is less than > 10%. We’re very pessimistic on the possibility of a real deal with China prior to the [2020 presidential] election.”
So, in the void ahead of the Fed’s meeting, the market will be watching earnings. As earnings rolled out this past week, stocks took a rest from their record-setting streak, as some companies lowered forecasts and most beat earnings and revenue estimates.
As of Friday morning, 77% of the roughly 80 companies reporting had beaten earnings estimates, and 65% topped revenue forecasts, according to Refinitiv. Based on actual reports and forecasts, earnings per share for the S&P companies are expected to be up 1% in the second quarter. That is up from expectations that the profit growth would be slightly negative this quarter.
“If you look at the numbers, we’re above the averages for top and bottom line beats, but at the same time when you look at revisions, every day we’re getting revisions for third and fourth quarter, and they’re coming down.There’s a real worry of an earnings recession, when you get out into the third and fourth quarter and out to next year,” Roth said.
Roth said he’s currently neutral on risk assets, and he sees a slowdown brewing in the smallest U.S. companies that could spread up the food chain.
“We do see those fundamental cracks in the economy in small business and the small business labor market, and on top of that you have these big macro risks out there,” such as trade and the upcoming election, Roth said.
Slower economy As earnings growth was muted in the second quarter, so was the pace of economic gains. If growth comes in as expected, it would be the first quarter where growth was under 2% since the first quarter of 2017. Economists are watching to see how consumer spending fared in the quarter, after a recent pickup and also whether business inventories are declining.
“The data we need is not Q2. What’s at risk is the growth and magnitude of the Fed rate cut. I don’t think Q2 is going to have much impact on the Fed’s thinking,” said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex. “It’s really how Q3 is progressing. It seems to me the economy softened in April and May and picked up in June with jobs data, retail sales and manufacturing sector.”
Chandler said investors will also be focused on the European Central Bank, which some economists believe could cut its overnight deposit rate to negative 0.5% from negative 0.4% currently when it meets Thursday. Chandler said odds are about 50% for the rate cut, which many also expect in September.
“While we’re waiting for the Fed to figure out whether it’s 25 or 50 basis points, and we’re waiting for the ECB to get all its forms sorted out ... the emerging markets are pushing ahead,” said Chandler, noting Russia and Turkey could cut rates in the next several days, after similar moves in the past week by South Africa, South Korea and Indonesia.
“It just makes the story more global. You’re seeing the trade numbers from China, Japan, Singapore and South Korea weaken. You’re seeing exports form China suffer. Exports from all of Asia are suffering,” he said. “The big surprise for China and Japan has also been on the import side. The declines in their imports is really someone else’s [drop in] exports.”
Rate cuts and currency wars Dollar strength has been a consequence of the trade war, and Fed action could help turn it around.
“If the Fed fails to move, you’re going to end up with an increasingly stronger dollar,” which impacts corporate earnings, Roth said.
“The dollar is quite strong and is increasingly going to be a headwind for U.S. companies. It hasn’t appreciated that much in 12 months, but if we see a divergence in monetary policy between the U.S. and the rest of the world, you would see a carry trade develop where people would want to buy assets in the U.S.,” he said.
The dollar index was slightly higher on the week, but Wall Street has been focused on President Donald Trump’s negative comments on the currency’s strength. As Trump has criticized the Fed, he also complains that other central banks manipulate their currencies to give them an edge in trade. Trump has said the Fed should already be cutting rates, something it hasn’t done since December 2008.
A number of Wall Street strategists have said they now believe it is possible that the U.S. government could intervene to weaken the dollar, but that would be unlikely.
Small-caps measured by the performance of the Russell 2000 have been lagging since mid-March with the gap in performance widening in June and continuing into July. At yesterday’s close the Russell 2000 was up 15.35% year-to-date compared to a gain of 19.87% for the Russell 1000. Based upon historical trends this is not unusual for this time of the year nor during times when U.S. economic data is mixed.
In the following chart the one-year seasonal pattern of the Russell 2000/Russell 1000 has been plotted (solid black line with grey fill) along with 2019 year-to-date (blue line). This chart is similar to the chart found on page 110 of the 2019 Stock Trader’s Almanac. When the lines are rising small-caps are outperforming, when the lines are falling small-caps are lagging. Small-caps exhibited typical seasonal strength during the first quarter but have been fading ever since. In some years, small-cap strength can last until mid-June however, that is not the case this year. Going forward, small-cap underperformance is likely to persist until early in the fourth quarter with possible a hint of strength at the end of August.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
It’s usually about this time of the year, when trading volumes begin to slump and markets meander that we begin to hear talk of the infamous “Summer Rally” featured on page 74 of the Stock Trader’s Almanac 2019. The “Summer Rally” is usually the weakest seasonal rally of them all.
We looked at the current Summer Rally and found it to be above average already, up 10.2% from the Spring low on May 31, and that does portend well for the Summer and Fall Corrections. We lined up the Summer Rallies ranked from weakest to strongest since 1964. Over the past 55 years prior to this year DJIA has rallied and average of 9.1% from its May/June low until its Q3 high. The Fall Rally averages 10.9% and the Summer and Fall Corrections average a loss of just under 9% for a net average gain of a few percentage points over the summer and fall.
As shown in the table below, when the Summer Rally is greater than or equal to the 55-year 9.1% average, the summer and fall correction tend to be bit milder, -6.2% and -8.2%, respectively. Summer Rally gains beyond 12.5% historically had the smallest summer and fall corrections. One prominent exception being 1987.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Once again today, DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ closed at new all-time highs. With today’s modest gains, DJIA is up 17.3% year-to-date. S&P 500 is even better at 20.2% while NASDAQ is still best at 24.5%. Compared to historical average performance in pre-election years at this time of the year, DJIA and S&P 500 are comfortably above average. NASDAQ’s impressive 24.5% gain is just average (since 1971). NASDAQ’s Midyear Rally delivered again, but officially ended last Friday. The seasonal pattern charts, above and below, along with July’s typical performance over the last 21 years suggest further gains during the balance of July and the third quarter could be limited. For the market to make meaningful gains in the near-term earnings will need to decent and forward guidance will also need to be firm.
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Yesterday was another one of those days that makes you scratch your head. In a relatively busy day for economic data, Initial Jobless Claims came in within 25K of a 50-year low, and the Philly Fed Manufacturing report saw its largest m/m increase in a decade. That follows other data last week where Retail Sales were very strong and CPI and PPI both came in ahead of consensus forecasts. The trend of better than expected data since the June employment report on July 5th is reflected in recent moves of the Citi Economic Surprise Index which has rallied from -68.3 up to -41.5. Granted, it’s still negative, but what was looking like a real dismal backdrop for the economy just three weeks ago seems to be showing signs of improvement.
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On top of the economic data, two notable interviews from FOMC officials Williams from New York and Vice Chair Clarida moved markets. Given the strong tone of economic data, one would expect both officials to try and tone down rising market expectations regarding any aggressive policy moves at the July meeting. Well, markets don’t always make sense.
In their respective interviews, both Williams and Clarida not only didn’t tone down expectations, but they added fuel to the fire. Williams noted that “it pays to act quickly to lower rates" and "vaccinate” the economy "against further ills." Clarida was even more direct when he said that “Research shows you act preemptively when you can.” In other words, the data-dependent Fed is casting the data aside and ready to move anyway. In his interview on Fox Business, Clarida almost got a chuckle when asked whether there was any chance the Fed wouldn’t cut rates in July.
The dovish turn from the Fed was immediately reflected in market expectations for rate policy at the July meeting. Back in June, market expectations for a 50 basis points (bps) cut at the next meeting peaked out at under 50%. Then, in the days following the June employment report, expectations dropped all the way down to 3%. In the last ten days, though, the trend has completely reversed, and as of yesterday’s close topped out at 71% versus just a 29% chance for a 25 bps cut. Probabilities for a 50 bps cut came in a bit overnight but are still at about 50/50. Yesterday alone, though, expectations for a 25 bps cut and a 50 bps cut more than completely reversed from the prior day, and remember, that’s after what was a good day of economic data! Can you imagine what expectations would be like if the data was actually bad?
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The Bloomberg World index is a cap-weighted index made up of nearly 5,000 stocks from around the world (including US stocks). While the S&P 500 has been hitting new all-time highs over the last week, the Bloomberg World index remains 7% below highs that it last made back in January 2018.
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Below is a chart showing the ratio of the S&P 500 to the Bloomberg World index since the World index's inception back in August 2003. While the World index outperformed the US for five years in the mid-2000s, the US has been outperforming since the end of 2007, which includes both the Financial Crisis and the bull market that has been in place since the 2009 lows.
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Along with the relative strength chart between the two indices above, below we show the price change of the S&P 500 versus the Bloomberg World index since August 2003. Through today, the S&P was up 203% versus a gain of 142% for the Bloomberg World index.
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Since the November 2016 election, the S&P 500 is up 40% versus a gain of 26% for the Bloomberg World index. Notably, the World index kept up with the S&P through early 2018, but weakness for the World index in mid-2018 and a failure to bounce back as much as the US this year has left the World index well behind.
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The S&P 500 is up over 20% YTD, but over the last 12 months, it is up just under 10% on a total return basis. And within the S&P 1500, there are only 44 stocks that are up more than 50% on a total return basis over the last 12 months. These 44 stocks are listed below.
Innovative Industrials (IIPR) -- a cannabis REIT -- has been the best performing stock in the S&P 1500 over the last year with a total return of 302%. In second place is eHealth (EHTH) with a gain of 269%, followed by Avon Products (AVP) at +174.8% and Coca-Cola Bottling (COKE) at +128.58%. Coca-Cola Bottling is probably one of the last names you would have guessed as a top five performer over the last year! Other notables on the list of biggest winners include Advanced Micro (AMD), LendingTree (TREE), Starbucks (SBUX), AutoZone (AZO), Chipotle (CMG), Hershey (HSY), and Procter & Gamble (PG).
Some names that aren't on the list that you may have expected to see? AMZN, NFLX, MSFT? Nope. None of the mega-cap Tech companies are on the list of biggest winners due to serious weakness from this group in Q4 2018.
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Although the last two trading days have seen exceptionally narrow daily ranges, today we wanted to take a quick look at the S&P 500's frequency of 2% daily moves (either up or down) in the post-WWII period. The chart below breaks out the frequency of 2% days by year, and years with more than 25 one-day moves of 2% are notated accordingly.
Overall, there have been an average of 11 daily 2% moves in a given year. After five straight years from 2007 to 2011 where we saw an above-average number of 2% days, the last seven years have only seen one year with an above-average number of occurrences (2018, 21). Remember, in 2017 there wasn't one single trading day that saw the S&P move up or down 2%!
So far this year, there have only been four 2% days, but with the most volatile part of the year on tap, we are likely to see that number increase in the months ahead. Don't expect the relative calm that we have seen in the last few trading days to last forever. Volatility is unpredictable and usually comes up and surprises you when you least expect it!
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- $FB
- $AMZN
- $TSLA
- $BA
- $T
- $SNAP
- $PIXY
- $HAL
- $TWTR
- $KO
- $F
- $V
- $LMT
- $GOOGL
- $INTC
- $CAT
- $PYPL
- $BIIB
- $UTX
- $IRBT
- $XLNX
- $UPS
- $ABBV
- $CNC
- $NOK
- $CMG
- $MMM
- $RPM
- $SBUX
- $JBLU
- $BMY
- $GNC
- $MCD
- $CDNS
- $CADE
- $NOW
- $AMTD
- $HAS
- $HOG
- $ANTM
- $WM
- $CMCSA
- $FCX
Monday 7.22.19 Before Market Open:
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Monday 7.22.19 After Market Close:
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Tuesday 7.23.19 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Tuesday 7.23.19 After Market Close:
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Wednesday 7.24.19 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!)
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Wednesday 7.24.19 After Market Close:
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Thursday 7.25.19 Before Market Open:
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Thursday 7.25.19 After Market Close:
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Friday 7.26.19 Before Market Open:
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Friday 7.26.19 After Market Close:
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NONE.
Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Thursday, July 25, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $5.29 per share on revenue of $62.51 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $5.70 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 78% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 4.34% with revenue increasing by 18.20%. Short interest has increased by 14.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 1.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 13.0% above its 200 day moving average of $1,737.93. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, July 11, 2019 there was some notable buying of 3,494 contracts of the $2,000.00 call expiring on Friday, August 16, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 4.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.0% move in recent quarters.
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Facebook Inc. (FB) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Wednesday, July 24, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.90 per share on revenue of $16.45 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.01 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 82% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 9.20% with revenue increasing by 24.33%. Short interest has increased by 21.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 0.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 20.8% above its 200 day moving average of $164.17. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, July 17, 2019 there was some notable buying of 16,697 contracts of the $290.00 call expiring on Friday, September 20, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 6.5% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 8.6% move in recent quarters.
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Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 5:15 PM ET on Wednesday, July 24, 2019. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.52 per share on revenue of $6.38 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.44) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 33% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 84.80% with revenue increasing by 59.41%. Short interest has increased by 26.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 1.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 8.1% below its 200 day moving average of $280.96. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, July 16, 2019 there was some notable buying of 30,445 contracts of the $50.00 put expiring on Friday, August 16, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 7.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.4% move in recent quarters.
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Boeing Co. (BA) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:30 AM ET on Wednesday, July 24, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.89 per share on revenue of $20.27 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.91 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 17% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 43.24% with revenue decreasing by 16.44%. Short interest has increased by 11.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 0.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 4.0% above its 200 day moving average of $362.82. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, July 8, 2019 there was some notable buying of 6,176 contracts of the $325.00 put expiring on Friday, August 16, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 3.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.0% move in recent quarters.
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AT&T Corp. (T) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:50 AM ET on Wednesday, July 24, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.89 per share on revenue of $45.02 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.90 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 66% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 2.20% with revenue increasing by 15.48%. Short interest has increased by 16.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 5.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 4.5% above its 200 day moving average of $31.37. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, July 8, 2019 there was some notable buying of 144,398 contracts of the $28.00 call expiring on Friday, January 17, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 4.1% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.5% move in recent quarters.
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Snap Inc. (SNAP) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:10 PM ET on Tuesday, July 23, 2019. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.10 per share on revenue of $358.48 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.08) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 61% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of $335.00 million to $360.00 million. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 9.09% with revenue increasing by 36.69%. Short interest has decreased by 3.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 13.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 36.9% above its 200 day moving average of $10.24. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, July 5, 2019 there was some notable buying of 7,449 contracts of the $19.00 call expiring on Friday, July 26, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 13.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 19.1% move in recent quarters.
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ShiftPixy, Inc. (PIXY) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 8:00 AM ET on Monday, July 22, 2019. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.08 per share on revenue of $14.39 million. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 44% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 33.33% with revenue increasing by 53.48%. Short interest has decreased by 8.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 50.9% from its open following the earnings release to be 63.8% below its 200 day moving average of $1.74. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 16.9% move on earnings in recent quarters.
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Halliburton Company (HAL) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:45 AM ET on Monday, July 22, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.30 per share on revenue of $5.97 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.29 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 60% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 48.28% with revenue decreasing by 2.88%. Short interest has increased by 39.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 31.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 25.7% below its 200 day moving average of $29.27. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, July 16, 2019 there was some notable buying of 9,264 contracts of the $20.00 put expiring on Friday, August 16, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 5.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.5% move in recent quarters.
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Twitter, Inc. (TWTR) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Friday, July 26, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.19 per share on revenue of $828.49 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.24 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 75% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of $770.00 million to $830.00 million. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 0.00% with revenue increasing by 16.60%. Short interest has increased by 9.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 0.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 10.1% above its 200 day moving average of $33.39. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, July 15, 2019 there was some notable buying of 7,151 contracts of the $60.00 call expiring on Friday, January 15, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 10.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 12.7% move in recent quarters.
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Visa Inc (V) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Tuesday, July 23, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.33 per share on revenue of $5.70 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.37 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 79% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 10.83% with revenue increasing by 8.78%. Short interest has decreased by 6.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 11.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 19.5% above its 200 day moving average of $150.03. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, July 16, 2019 there was some notable buying of 4,839 contracts of the $165.00 put expiring on Friday, August 16, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 3.1% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.6% move in recent quarters.
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1. Dow set to add to Wednesday’s record high close
- Dow futures rose Thursday, one day after the 30-stock average hit an intraday all-time high in a volatile session and closed at a record. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq on Wednesday were unable to hold on to their all-time intraday highs and closed slightly lower.
- The Labor Department is out at 8:30 a.m. ET with its weekly report on new jobless claims. Economists expect 760,000 filings for new unemployment benefits for last week. That would be down 19,000 from the prior week, which at 779,000 was the lowest initial claims reading since late November.
- Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday monetary policy needs to stay “patiently accommodative” to support the economy that still faces challenges in the labor market. The employment picture is “a long way” from where it needs to be, the central bank chief told the Economic Club of New York.
2. PepsiCo beats expectations; Uber delivers mixed results
- Earnings were once again a focus for investors. Disney leads the list of major companies reporting quarterly results after Thursday’s closing bell. Before the market opening, PepsiCo reported a fourth-quarter profit of $1.47 per share, a penny better than estimates. Revenue rose 8.8% to $22.46 billion, also exceeding expectations. PepsiCo shares fell slightly in the premarket.
- Uber shares dropped 4% in Thursday’s premarket, the morning after the company reported a smaller-than-expected loss of 54 cents per share in the fourth quarter. However, revenue fell 16% to a lower-than-expected $3.17 billion. Uber’s ride-hailing business slowly recovered, while its delivery business boomed.
3. Cannabis stocks jump in a Reddit-fueled trade reminiscent of GameStop
- Cannabis stocks were soaring as the Reddit crowd that spiked GameStop jumped in. Tilray shares surged nearly 51% on Wednesday, pushing the stock to a year-to-date gain of more than 670%. Not nearly as bet-against as GameStop, Tilray’s short interest was still equal to 22.5% of the shares available for trading, according to FactSet as of the end of January. Tilary added another 10% in Thursday’s premarket. Tilray is no stranger to a short-squeeze rally. The stock spiked more than 1,400% between July and September 2018, but those gains did not last.
4. Dating app firm Bumble set to begin trading after pricing IPO
- When 31-year-old Bumble CEO Whitney Wolfe Herd takes her dating app company public Thursday, she’ll be noted not only for her youth but also as one of the few female founders to lead her firm to an IPO. Bumble, whose board comprises 73% women, priced its offering Wednesday evening at $43 per share, raising $2.2 billion and valuing Bumble at around $8 billion. The stock market response will act as a litmus test for companies founded by women, who account for just 7.4% of Fortune 500 CEOs. That’s an all-time high but still a staggeringly low.
PepsiCo (PEP) – The beverage and snack giant beat estimates by a penny with adjusted quarterly earnings of $1.47 per share, and revenue was above estimates as well. The company said it expects to see organic revenue and adjusted profit growth this year, and also announced a 5% dividend increase.
STOCK SYMBOL: PEP
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Generac (GNRC) – Generac shares rose 3% in pre-market trading after the maker of backup generators beat estimates on the top and bottom lines for its latest quarter, and said it expected net sales growth of 25 to 30 percent this year.
STOCK SYMBOL: GNRC
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Restaurant Brands (QSR) – The parent of Popeyes, Burger King and Tim Hortons missed estimates by 12 cents with adjusted quarterly earnings of 53 cents per share, while revenue was slightly above forecasts. Shares fell about 2% pre-market as comparable restaurant sales fell more than expected.
STOCK SYMBOL: QSR
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Tempur Sealy (TPX) – Shares of the mattress maker surged 12% pre-market after it beat forecasts by 15 cents with adjusted quarterly earnings of 67 cents per share. Revenue beat estimates as well, and Tempur Sealy said it expected 2021 sales growth of 15% to 20%.
STOCK SYMBOL: TPX
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LabCorp (LH) – The medical-laboratory operator reported adjusted quarterly earnings of $10.56 per share, well above the $8.11 consensus estimate, and revenue was above forecasts as well. Its results were boosted by Covid-19 testing, and shares were up 3.6% pre-market.
STOCK SYMBOL: LH
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Molson Coors (TAP) – The beer brewer’s shares were down 4.5 % pre-market as it reported adjusted quarterly earnings of 40 cents per share, well below the 77-cent consensus estimate. Its results were hurt by ongoing Covid-19 restrictions for restaurants and bars.
STOCK SYMBOL: TAP
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Kraft Heinz (KHC) – Kraft Heinz shares rose 1.7% pre-market, as it beat estimates on the top and bottom lines for its latest quarter, and also announced the sale of its Planters snacks business to Hormel (HRL) for $3.35 billion in cash.
STOCK SYMBOL: KHC
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Uber Technologies (UBER) – Uber reported a quarterly loss of 54 cents per share, 2 cents less than anticipated, with revenue slightly below estimates. Uber’s results were helped by an expansion in its food delivery business as well as cost reductions. Uber shares were down 3.8% pre-market.
STOCK SYMBOL: UBER
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Bumble (BMBL) – Bumble makes its Wall Street debut today after pricing its initial public offering at $43 per share, above the already raised expected range of $37 to $39 per share. The dating service raised $2.2 billion in the IPO, giving it an overall value of more than $7 billion.
STOCK SYMBOL: BMBL
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Sonos (SONO) – Sonos shares jumped 17% in pre-market trading, after the maker of high-end smart speakers beat estimates on both the top and bottom lines in its latest quarter. Sonos was helped by stronger margins as no promotions were held during the quarter. It also raised its full-year revenue guidance.
STOCK SYMBOL: SONO
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iRobot (IRBT) – iRobot earned an adjusted 84 cents per share for the fourth quarter, well above the consensus estimate of 84 cents, with revenue also comfortably topping Wall Street predictions. The maker of the Roomba robotic vacuum cleaner also gave strong full-year revenue and profit guidance. Shares rose 7.3% in pre-market trading.
STOCK SYMBOL: IRBT
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Zillow Group (ZG) – Zillow beat estimates by 14 cents with adjusted quarterly earnings of 41 cents per share, with the operator of real estate websites also scoring a revenue beat. It also gave upbeat revenue guidance, and announced the acquisition of online home-viewing-scheduling platform ShowingTime.com for $500 million in cash. Zillow shares rose 12% in pre-market trading.
STOCK SYMBOL: ZG
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Zynga (ZNGA) - Zynga CEO Frank Gibeau told Barron’s that the mobile game developer is open to an acquisition offer, although it is not actively looking to sell the company. Zynga also reported a 61% jump in the key metric of net bookings during its latest quarter, more than analysts had anticipated.
STOCK SYMBOL: ZNGA
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XPO Logistics (XPO) – XPO earned an adjusted $1.19 per share for the fourth quarter, well above the 67-cent consensus estimate. The logistics company also saw revenue above forecasts and gave strong full-year earnings guidance. XPO is benefiting from a pandemic-induced acceleration in shipping activity due to an explosion in online shopping.
STOCK SYMBOL: XPO
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Merck (MRK) - Merck is in talks with both governments and other drugmakers to help produce already approved Covid-19 vaccines. The drugmaker did not specify which governments or other companies were involved in those talks.
STOCK SYMBOL: MRK
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Pinterest (PINS) – Pinterest was approached by Microsoft (MSFT) about a possible takeover in recent months, according to people brief on the matter who spoke to the Financial Times. However, the report added that negotiations about a buyout of the image-sharing company were not currently active.
STOCK SYMBOL: PINS
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Time | Release | For | Actual | Expected | Prior |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
7:00:00 AM | MBA Mortgage Applications Index | 43,134.00 | 0.01 | NA | -0.03 |
10:30:00 AM | Crude Inventories | 43,134.00 | - | NA | NA |
3:00:00 PM | Consumer Credit | Dec | - | $18.0B | $20.0B |
AMG | Affiliated Manag Rg | $0.30 | 0.42% |
---|---|---|---|
AROC | Archrock | $0.12 | 0.00% |
BCO | Brinks Rg | $0.15 | 0.71% |
CVCY | Central Valley B Rg | $0.07 | 1.25% |
EBTC | Enterprise Banco Rg | $0.15 | 0.00% |
ETR | Entergy Rg | $0.89 | 4.80% |
FII | FED INVESTORS-B | $0.25 | 3.00% |
GHC | Graham Hldg Rg | $1.33 | 0.87% |
GNL | Glbl Net Lease - Registered | $0.18 | 11.90% |
HTBK | Heritage Commerc Rg | $0.11 | 2.61% |
KBH | KB Home Rg | $0.03 | 0.28% |
MATX | Matson Rg | $0.20 | 2.18% |
MBTF | MBT Finl Rg | $0.66 | 8.64% |
OFED | Oconee Fed Finl Rg | $0.10 | 1.40% |
PGC | Peapack Gladston Rg | $0.05 | 0.00% |
RGA | Reinsurnce Gr Am Rg | $0.50 | 1.32% |
RMD | Resmed Rg | $0.35 | 1.43% |
SBUX | Starbucks Rg | $0.30 | 1.90% |
STBA | S & T Bancorp Rg | $0.22 | 2.10% |
SXI | Standex Intl Rg | $0.18 | 0.62% |
TBNK | Territorial Bnc Rg | $0.20 | 3.94% |
WSFS | WSFS Financial Rg | $0.09 | 0.58% |
WTFC | Wintrust Financi Rg | $0.19 | 0.68% |
Company | Release | Est. EPS | Company | Release | Est. EPS |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
A10 Networks (ATEN) | Afternoon | 0.01 | Jones Lang LaSalle (JLL) | Morning | 4.22 |
Activision Blizzard (ATVI) | Afternoon | N/A | Kamada (KMDA) | Morning | 0.06 |
Advanced Drainage Systems (WMS) | Morning | N/A | KapStone Paper and Packaging (KS) | Afternoon | 0.42 |
Aerohive Networks (HIVE) | Afternoon | N/A | Keryx Biopharmaceuticals (KERX) | Morning | -0.18 |
Allegion (ALLE) | Morning | 0.95 | Knowles (KN) | Afternoon | 0.36 |
Allstate (ALL) | Afternoon | 2.03 | Lannett (LCI) | Afternoon | 0.85 |
Alpha and Omega Semiconductor (AOSL) | Afternoon | 0.16 | LifeVantage (LFVN) | Afternoon | N/A |
AMERCO (UHAL) | Afternoon | 9.20 | Manning and Napier (MN) | Afternoon | 0.09 |
American Equity Investment Life (AEL) | Afternoon | 0.67 | Manulife Financial (MFC) | Afternoon | 0.45 |
Anavex Life Sciences (AVXL) | Morning | N/A | Matrix Service (MTRX) | Morning | 0.16 |
Apollo Investment (AINV) | Morning | 0.16 | MAXIMUS (MMS) | N/A | 0.77 |
AppFolio (APPF) | Afternoon | N/A | MDU Resources Group (MDU) | Morning | 0.32 |
Ardmore Shipping (ASC) | Morning | -0.15 | Medical Properties Trust (MPW) | Morning | N/A |
Aspen Insurance (AHL) | Afternoon | 0.89 | Medidata Solutions (MDSO) | Morning | 0.35 |
Astrotech (ASTC) | Morning | N/A | Michael Kors (KORS) | Morning | 1.29 |
AU Optronics (AUO) | Morning | 0.14 | Moelis & Co (MC) | Afternoon | 0.59 |
Axis Capital (AXS) | Afternoon | 1.11 | Mohawk Industries (MHK) | Afternoon | 3.31 |
Aytu Bioscience (AYTU) | N/A | N/A | Monmouth R.E. Inv. (MNR) | Afternoon | 0.11 |
Ball (BLL) | Morning | 0.52 | Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR) | Afternoon | 0.79 |
Beazer Homes USA (BZH) | Afternoon | 0.00 | Natus Medical (BABY) | Morning | 0.62 |
Berry Global Group (BERY) | Morning | 0.65 | Navios Maritime Acquisition (NNA) | Morning | -0.04 |
Brink's (BCO) | Morning | 1.06 | Noble (NE) | Afternoon | N/A |
Brookfield Renewable Partners (BEP) | Morning | 0.01 | NuVasive (NUVA) | Afternoon | 0.67 |
BSB Bancorp (BLMT) | Afternoon | N/A | NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) | Afternoon | 1.79 |
Caesarstone (CSTE) | Morning | 0.28 | Organovo (ONVO) | Morning | N/A |
Callaway Golf (ELY) | Afternoon | -0.17 | Owens-Illinois (OI) | Morning | 0.54 |
Camtek (CAMT) | Morning | 0.10 | Pandora Media (P) | Afternoon | N/A |
Carbonite (CARB) | Afternoon | N/A | Patterson-UTI Energy (PTEN) | Morning | -0.12 |
Cardiovascular Systems (CSII) | Afternoon | -0.04 | Peabody Energy (BTU) | Morning | 1.30 |
Care.com (CRCM) | N/A | N/A | PennantPark Investment (PNNT) | Afternoon | 0.18 |
CDW (CDW) | Morning | 0.93 | Performance Food Group (PFGC) | Morning | 0.37 |
Central Garden & Pet (CENT) | Afternoon | 0.15 | PJT Partners (PJT) | Morning | 0.67 |
Central Garden & Pet (CENTA) | Afternoon | N/A | Pro-Dex (PDEX) | N/A | N/A |
Cincinnati Financial (CINF) | Afternoon | 0.91 | Prospect Capital (PSEC) | Afternoon | 0.18 |
Civitas Solutions (CIVI) | Afternoon | 0.17 | Prudential Financial (PRU) | Afternoon | 2.64 |
CM Finance (CMFN) | Afternoon | 0.25 | pSivida (PSDV) | Morning | -0.15 |
Cognizant Technology Solutions (CTSH) | Morning | 0.88 | RadiSys (RSYS) | Afternoon | -0.06 |
Computer Programs & Systems (CPSI) | Afternoon | N/A | Radware (RDWR) | Morning | 0.07 |
Cousins Properties (CUZ) | Afternoon | 0.02 | Rapid7 (RPD) | Afternoon | N/A |
CSG Systems International (CSGS) | Afternoon | 0.65 | Rayonier (RYN) | Afternoon | 0.09 |
CSRA (CSRA) | Afternoon | 0.47 | RealNetworks (RNWK) | Afternoon | N/A |
DHI Group (DHX) | Morning | 0.04 | Regal Entertainment Group (RGC) | Afternoon | 0.42 |
Diodes (DIOD) | Afternoon | 0.38 | Rent-A-Center (RCII) | Afternoon | 0.07 |
DTE Energy (DTE) | Morning | 1.00 | Rio Tinto (RIO) | Morning | N/A |
Ellie Mae (ELLI) | Afternoon | 0.32 | Sanofi (SNY) | Morning | 0.68 |
EnerSys (ENS) | Afternoon | 1.14 | Statoil ASA (STO) | Morning | 0.34 |
ePlus (PLUS) | Afternoon | 0.84 | Steris (STE) | Morning | 1.07 |
Exelon (EXC) | Morning | 0.60 | Suncor Energy (SU) | Afternoon | 0.44 |
FBL Financial Group (FFG) | Afternoon | N/A | Synaptics (SYNA) | Afternoon | 1.09 |
First Solar (FSLR) | Afternoon | 0.48 | Taro Pharmaceutical Industries (TARO) | Afternoon | N/A |
FirstService (FSV) | Morning | 0.48 | Taubman Centers (TCO) | Afternoon | N/A |
Fonar (FONR) | Morning | N/A | Taylor Morrison Home (TMHC) | Morning | 0.70 |
Forward Air (FWRD) | Afternoon | 0.62 | Tesla (TSLA) | Afternoon | -3.75 |
GGP (GGP) | Morning | 0.20 | The Carlyle Group (CG) | Morning | 0.62 |
GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) | Afternoon | 0.65 | Timken (TKR) | Morning | 0.67 |
Granite Point Mortgage Trust (GPMT) | Afternoon | 0.36 | Torchmark (TMK) | Afternoon | 1.23 |
Green Plains Partners (GPP) | Afternoon | 0.47 | TriNet Group (TNET) | Afternoon | N/A |
Hain Celestial Group (HAIN) | Morning | 0.42 | Trivago (TRVG) | Morning | -0.02 |
Hasbro (HAS) | Morning | 2.04 | Twitter (TWTR) | Morning | 0.10 |
Hennessy Capital Acquisition (BLBD) | Morning | 0.02 | U.S. Global Investors (GROW) | Morning | N/A |
Hornbeck Offshore Services (HOS) | Afternoon | -0.73 | Ubiquiti Networks (UBNT) | Morning | N/A |
Hortonworks (HDP) | Afternoon | N/A | Usa Compression Partners (USAC) | Morning | N/A |
Humana (HUM) | Morning | 2.00 | Valvoline (VVV) | Afternoon | 0.28 |
IAC/InterActiveCorp (IAC) | Afternoon | 0.92 | Verisign (VRSN) | Afternoon | 0.99 |
Infinera (INFN) | Afternoon | -0.21 | ViaSat (VSAT) | Afternoon | N/A |
Innoviva (INVA) | Afternoon | 0.38 | Walker & Dunlop (WD) | Morning | 1.02 |
Inphi (IPHI) | Afternoon | 0.08 | Watts Water Technologies (WTS) | Afternoon | N/A |
Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) | Morning | 0.72 | Web.com Group (WEB) | Afternoon | N/A |
Intermolecular (IMI) | Afternoon | N/A | Workiva (WK) | Afternoon | N/A |
INTL Fcstone (INTL) | Afternoon | N/A | World Wrestling Entertainment (WWE) | Morning | 0.18 |
Invacare (IVC) | Afternoon | -0.44 | Xcel Energy (XEL) | Morning | 0.43 |
Investors Title (ITIC) | Morning | N/A | Xplore Technologies (XPLR) | Afternoon | 0.02 |
iPass (IPAS) | Afternoon | N/A | XPO Logistics (XPO) | Afternoon | 0.43 |
iRobot (IRBT) | Afternoon | 0.25 | Yelp (YELP) | Afternoon | 0.05 |
J2 Global (JCOM) | Afternoon | 1.70 | Yum China (YUMC) | Afternoon | 0.18 |
Jacobs Engineering Group (JEC) | Morning | 0.67 | Zayo Group (ZAYO) | Morning | 0.12 |
Jones Lang LaSalle (JLL) | Morning | 4.22 | Zynga (ZNGA) | Afternoon | 0.01 |
Sluggish economic and earnings growth will be a theme in markets in the week ahead, as investors await a Fed interest rate cut at the end of the month.
More than a quarter of the S&P 500 companies report earnings in the coming week, the second big week of the second quarter reporting season. FAANG names, like Alphabet and Amazon, and blue chips from McDonald’s to Boeingand United Technologies are among the more than 130 companies reporting.
There is also some key economic data, including Friday’s second quarter GDP, which should show a slowing to 1.8% from the first quarter’s 3.1% pace, according to Refinitiv. On Thursday, durable goods are reported and will include an update on businesses investment. There are also existing home sales Tuesday, new home sales Wednesday and advance economic indicators Thursday.
But there will be no Fed speakers, after a parade of central bank officials in the past week, including Fed Chair Jerome Powell. The most impactful comments, however, came Thursday from New York Fed President John Williams, who set off a debate about how much the Fed could cut rates at its July 30-31 meeting — 25 or 50 basis points.
Even as the New York Fed later said Williams comments were not about current policy, market pros took heed of his words about how central bankers should “act quickly.”
Fed dominates Fed officials do not speak publicly in the days ahead of policy meetings, but market pros will find plenty to debate. Fed funds futures were predicting a 43% chance of a 50 basis point cut in July, after shooting as high as 70% Thursday afternoon.
“For sure, the Fed is going to dominate for next week. I think we’ll get at least a 25 basis point cut. I’m thinking we’re not going to get 50 basis point cut...The Fed has been burned when it’s been bold,” said Tony Roth, chief investment officer at Wilmington Trust.
Roth said he believes the market is already pricing in a quarter-point cut, and he does not see the Fed’s rate cut as much of a longer-term catalyst for stocks. If it trims by a half percentage point, he expects just a short-term pop.
Economists believe the Fed will cut interest rates even though recent data has improved. That’s in part because Powell has stressed the Fed is focused on the global economic slowdown, trade wars and low inflation, and that it will do what it takes to keep the economy expanding.
“The only real catalyst that would really help the market would be if there was a trade deal with China,” Roth said. “I think the likelihood of that is less than > 10%. We’re very pessimistic on the possibility of a real deal with China prior to the [2020 presidential] election.”
So, in the void ahead of the Fed’s meeting, the market will be watching earnings. As earnings rolled out this past week, stocks took a rest from their record-setting streak, as some companies lowered forecasts and most beat earnings and revenue estimates.
As of Friday morning, 77% of the roughly 80 companies reporting had beaten earnings estimates, and 65% topped revenue forecasts, according to Refinitiv. Based on actual reports and forecasts, earnings per share for the S&P companies are expected to be up 1% in the second quarter. That is up from expectations that the profit growth would be slightly negative this quarter.
“If you look at the numbers, we’re above the averages for top and bottom line beats, but at the same time when you look at revisions, every day we’re getting revisions for third and fourth quarter, and they’re coming down.There’s a real worry of an earnings recession, when you get out into the third and fourth quarter and out to next year,” Roth said.
Roth said he’s currently neutral on risk assets, and he sees a slowdown brewing in the smallest U.S. companies that could spread up the food chain.
“We do see those fundamental cracks in the economy in small business and the small business labor market, and on top of that you have these big macro risks out there,” such as trade and the upcoming election, Roth said.
Slower economy As earnings growth was muted in the second quarter, so was the pace of economic gains. If growth comes in as expected, it would be the first quarter where growth was under 2% since the first quarter of 2017. Economists are watching to see how consumer spending fared in the quarter, after a recent pickup and also whether business inventories are declining.
“The data we need is not Q2. What’s at risk is the growth and magnitude of the Fed rate cut. I don’t think Q2 is going to have much impact on the Fed’s thinking,” said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex. “It’s really how Q3 is progressing. It seems to me the economy softened in April and May and picked up in June with jobs data, retail sales and manufacturing sector.”
Chandler said investors will also be focused on the European Central Bank, which some economists believe could cut its overnight deposit rate to negative 0.5% from negative 0.4% currently when it meets Thursday. Chandler said odds are about 50% for the rate cut, which many also expect in September.
“While we’re waiting for the Fed to figure out whether it’s 25 or 50 basis points, and we’re waiting for the ECB to get all its forms sorted out ... the emerging markets are pushing ahead,” said Chandler, noting Russia and Turkey could cut rates in the next several days, after similar moves in the past week by South Africa, South Korea and Indonesia.
“It just makes the story more global. You’re seeing the trade numbers from China, Japan, Singapore and South Korea weaken. You’re seeing exports form China suffer. Exports from all of Asia are suffering,” he said. “The big surprise for China and Japan has also been on the import side. The declines in their imports is really someone else’s [drop in] exports.”
Rate cuts and currency wars Dollar strength has been a consequence of the trade war, and Fed action could help turn it around.
“If the Fed fails to move, you’re going to end up with an increasingly stronger dollar,” which impacts corporate earnings, Roth said.
“The dollar is quite strong and is increasingly going to be a headwind for U.S. companies. It hasn’t appreciated that much in 12 months, but if we see a divergence in monetary policy between the U.S. and the rest of the world, you would see a carry trade develop where people would want to buy assets in the U.S.,” he said.
The dollar index was slightly higher on the week, but Wall Street has been focused on President Donald Trump’s negative comments on the currency’s strength. As Trump has criticized the Fed, he also complains that other central banks manipulate their currencies to give them an edge in trade. Trump has said the Fed should already be cutting rates, something it hasn’t done since December 2008.
A number of Wall Street strategists have said they now believe it is possible that the U.S. government could intervene to weaken the dollar, but that would be unlikely.
Small-caps measured by the performance of the Russell 2000 have been lagging since mid-March with the gap in performance widening in June and continuing into July. At yesterday’s close the Russell 2000 was up 15.35% year-to-date compared to a gain of 19.87% for the Russell 1000. Based upon historical trends this is not unusual for this time of the year nor during times when U.S. economic data is mixed.
In the following chart the one-year seasonal pattern of the Russell 2000/Russell 1000 has been plotted (solid black line with grey fill) along with 2019 year-to-date (blue line). This chart is similar to the chart found on page 110 of the 2019 Stock Trader’s Almanac. When the lines are rising small-caps are outperforming, when the lines are falling small-caps are lagging. Small-caps exhibited typical seasonal strength during the first quarter but have been fading ever since. In some years, small-cap strength can last until mid-June however, that is not the case this year. Going forward, small-cap underperformance is likely to persist until early in the fourth quarter with possible a hint of strength at the end of August.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
It’s usually about this time of the year, when trading volumes begin to slump and markets meander that we begin to hear talk of the infamous “Summer Rally” featured on page 74 of the Stock Trader’s Almanac 2019. The “Summer Rally” is usually the weakest seasonal rally of them all.
We looked at the current Summer Rally and found it to be above average already, up 10.2% from the Spring low on May 31, and that does portend well for the Summer and Fall Corrections. We lined up the Summer Rallies ranked from weakest to strongest since 1964. Over the past 55 years prior to this year DJIA has rallied and average of 9.1% from its May/June low until its Q3 high. The Fall Rally averages 10.9% and the Summer and Fall Corrections average a loss of just under 9% for a net average gain of a few percentage points over the summer and fall.
As shown in the table below, when the Summer Rally is greater than or equal to the 55-year 9.1% average, the summer and fall correction tend to be bit milder, -6.2% and -8.2%, respectively. Summer Rally gains beyond 12.5% historically had the smallest summer and fall corrections. One prominent exception being 1987.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Once again today, DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ closed at new all-time highs. With today’s modest gains, DJIA is up 17.3% year-to-date. S&P 500 is even better at 20.2% while NASDAQ is still best at 24.5%. Compared to historical average performance in pre-election years at this time of the year, DJIA and S&P 500 are comfortably above average. NASDAQ’s impressive 24.5% gain is just average (since 1971). NASDAQ’s Midyear Rally delivered again, but officially ended last Friday. The seasonal pattern charts, above and below, along with July’s typical performance over the last 21 years suggest further gains during the balance of July and the third quarter could be limited. For the market to make meaningful gains in the near-term earnings will need to decent and forward guidance will also need to be firm.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Yesterday was another one of those days that makes you scratch your head. In a relatively busy day for economic data, Initial Jobless Claims came in within 25K of a 50-year low, and the Philly Fed Manufacturing report saw its largest m/m increase in a decade. That follows other data last week where Retail Sales were very strong and CPI and PPI both came in ahead of consensus forecasts. The trend of better than expected data since the June employment report on July 5th is reflected in recent moves of the Citi Economic Surprise Index which has rallied from -68.3 up to -41.5. Granted, it’s still negative, but what was looking like a real dismal backdrop for the economy just three weeks ago seems to be showing signs of improvement.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
On top of the economic data, two notable interviews from FOMC officials Williams from New York and Vice Chair Clarida moved markets. Given the strong tone of economic data, one would expect both officials to try and tone down rising market expectations regarding any aggressive policy moves at the July meeting. Well, markets don’t always make sense.
In their respective interviews, both Williams and Clarida not only didn’t tone down expectations, but they added fuel to the fire. Williams noted that “it pays to act quickly to lower rates" and "vaccinate” the economy "against further ills." Clarida was even more direct when he said that “Research shows you act preemptively when you can.” In other words, the data-dependent Fed is casting the data aside and ready to move anyway. In his interview on Fox Business, Clarida almost got a chuckle when asked whether there was any chance the Fed wouldn’t cut rates in July.
The dovish turn from the Fed was immediately reflected in market expectations for rate policy at the July meeting. Back in June, market expectations for a 50 basis points (bps) cut at the next meeting peaked out at under 50%. Then, in the days following the June employment report, expectations dropped all the way down to 3%. In the last ten days, though, the trend has completely reversed, and as of yesterday’s close topped out at 71% versus just a 29% chance for a 25 bps cut. Probabilities for a 50 bps cut came in a bit overnight but are still at about 50/50. Yesterday alone, though, expectations for a 25 bps cut and a 50 bps cut more than completely reversed from the prior day, and remember, that’s after what was a good day of economic data! Can you imagine what expectations would be like if the data was actually bad?
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The Bloomberg World index is a cap-weighted index made up of nearly 5,000 stocks from around the world (including US stocks). While the S&P 500 has been hitting new all-time highs over the last week, the Bloomberg World index remains 7% below highs that it last made back in January 2018.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Below is a chart showing the ratio of the S&P 500 to the Bloomberg World index since the World index's inception back in August 2003. While the World index outperformed the US for five years in the mid-2000s, the US has been outperforming since the end of 2007, which includes both the Financial Crisis and the bull market that has been in place since the 2009 lows.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Along with the relative strength chart between the two indices above, below we show the price change of the S&P 500 versus the Bloomberg World index since August 2003. Through today, the S&P was up 203% versus a gain of 142% for the Bloomberg World index.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Since the November 2016 election, the S&P 500 is up 40% versus a gain of 26% for the Bloomberg World index. Notably, the World index kept up with the S&P through early 2018, but weakness for the World index in mid-2018 and a failure to bounce back as much as the US this year has left the World index well behind.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The S&P 500 is up over 20% YTD, but over the last 12 months, it is up just under 10% on a total return basis. And within the S&P 1500, there are only 44 stocks that are up more than 50% on a total return basis over the last 12 months. These 44 stocks are listed below.
Innovative Industrials (IIPR) -- a cannabis REIT -- has been the best performing stock in the S&P 1500 over the last year with a total return of 302%. In second place is eHealth (EHTH) with a gain of 269%, followed by Avon Products (AVP) at +174.8% and Coca-Cola Bottling (COKE) at +128.58%. Coca-Cola Bottling is probably one of the last names you would have guessed as a top five performer over the last year! Other notables on the list of biggest winners include Advanced Micro (AMD), LendingTree (TREE), Starbucks (SBUX), AutoZone (AZO), Chipotle (CMG), Hershey (HSY), and Procter & Gamble (PG).
Some names that aren't on the list that you may have expected to see? AMZN, NFLX, MSFT? Nope. None of the mega-cap Tech companies are on the list of biggest winners due to serious weakness from this group in Q4 2018.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Although the last two trading days have seen exceptionally narrow daily ranges, today we wanted to take a quick look at the S&P 500's frequency of 2% daily moves (either up or down) in the post-WWII period. The chart below breaks out the frequency of 2% days by year, and years with more than 25 one-day moves of 2% are notated accordingly.
Overall, there have been an average of 11 daily 2% moves in a given year. After five straight years from 2007 to 2011 where we saw an above-average number of 2% days, the last seven years have only seen one year with an above-average number of occurrences (2018, 21). Remember, in 2017 there wasn't one single trading day that saw the S&P move up or down 2%!
So far this year, there have only been four 2% days, but with the most volatile part of the year on tap, we are likely to see that number increase in the months ahead. Don't expect the relative calm that we have seen in the last few trading days to last forever. Volatility is unpredictable and usually comes up and surprises you when you least expect it!
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
- $FB
- $AMZN
- $TSLA
- $BA
- $T
- $SNAP
- $PIXY
- $HAL
- $TWTR
- $KO
- $F
- $V
- $LMT
- $GOOGL
- $INTC
- $CAT
- $PYPL
- $BIIB
- $UTX
- $IRBT
- $XLNX
- $UPS
- $ABBV
- $CNC
- $NOK
- $CMG
- $MMM
- $RPM
- $SBUX
- $JBLU
- $BMY
- $GNC
- $MCD
- $CDNS
- $CADE
- $NOW
- $AMTD
- $HAS
- $HOG
- $ANTM
- $WM
- $CMCSA
- $FCX
Monday 7.22.19 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Monday 7.22.19 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Tuesday 7.23.19 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Tuesday 7.23.19 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Wednesday 7.24.19 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #2!)
Wednesday 7.24.19 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #2!)
Thursday 7.25.19 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #2!)
Thursday 7.25.19 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #2!)
Friday 7.26.19 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Friday 7.26.19 After Market Close:
([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
NONE.
Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Thursday, July 25, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $5.29 per share on revenue of $62.51 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $5.70 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 78% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 4.34% with revenue increasing by 18.20%. Short interest has increased by 14.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 1.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 13.0% above its 200 day moving average of $1,737.93. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, July 11, 2019 there was some notable buying of 3,494 contracts of the $2,000.00 call expiring on Friday, August 16, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 4.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.0% move in recent quarters.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Facebook Inc. (FB) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Wednesday, July 24, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.90 per share on revenue of $16.45 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.01 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 82% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 9.20% with revenue increasing by 24.33%. Short interest has increased by 21.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 0.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 20.8% above its 200 day moving average of $164.17. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, July 17, 2019 there was some notable buying of 16,697 contracts of the $290.00 call expiring on Friday, September 20, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 6.5% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 8.6% move in recent quarters.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 5:15 PM ET on Wednesday, July 24, 2019. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.52 per share on revenue of $6.38 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.44) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 33% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 84.80% with revenue increasing by 59.41%. Short interest has increased by 26.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 1.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 8.1% below its 200 day moving average of $280.96. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, July 16, 2019 there was some notable buying of 30,445 contracts of the $50.00 put expiring on Friday, August 16, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 7.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.4% move in recent quarters.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Boeing Co. (BA) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:30 AM ET on Wednesday, July 24, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.89 per share on revenue of $20.27 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.91 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 17% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 43.24% with revenue decreasing by 16.44%. Short interest has increased by 11.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 0.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 4.0% above its 200 day moving average of $362.82. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, July 8, 2019 there was some notable buying of 6,176 contracts of the $325.00 put expiring on Friday, August 16, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 3.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.0% move in recent quarters.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
AT&T Corp. (T) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:50 AM ET on Wednesday, July 24, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.89 per share on revenue of $45.02 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.90 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 66% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 2.20% with revenue increasing by 15.48%. Short interest has increased by 16.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 5.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 4.5% above its 200 day moving average of $31.37. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, July 8, 2019 there was some notable buying of 144,398 contracts of the $28.00 call expiring on Friday, January 17, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 4.1% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.5% move in recent quarters.
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Snap Inc. (SNAP) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:10 PM ET on Tuesday, July 23, 2019. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.10 per share on revenue of $358.48 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.08) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 61% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of $335.00 million to $360.00 million. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 9.09% with revenue increasing by 36.69%. Short interest has decreased by 3.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 13.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 36.9% above its 200 day moving average of $10.24. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, July 5, 2019 there was some notable buying of 7,449 contracts of the $19.00 call expiring on Friday, July 26, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 13.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 19.1% move in recent quarters.
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ShiftPixy, Inc. (PIXY) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 8:00 AM ET on Monday, July 22, 2019. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.08 per share on revenue of $14.39 million. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 44% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 33.33% with revenue increasing by 53.48%. Short interest has decreased by 8.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 50.9% from its open following the earnings release to be 63.8% below its 200 day moving average of $1.74. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 16.9% move on earnings in recent quarters.
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Halliburton Company (HAL) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:45 AM ET on Monday, July 22, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.30 per share on revenue of $5.97 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.29 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 60% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 48.28% with revenue decreasing by 2.88%. Short interest has increased by 39.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 31.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 25.7% below its 200 day moving average of $29.27. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, July 16, 2019 there was some notable buying of 9,264 contracts of the $20.00 put expiring on Friday, August 16, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 5.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.5% move in recent quarters.
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Twitter, Inc. (TWTR) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Friday, July 26, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.19 per share on revenue of $828.49 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.24 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 75% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of $770.00 million to $830.00 million. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 0.00% with revenue increasing by 16.60%. Short interest has increased by 9.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 0.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 10.1% above its 200 day moving average of $33.39. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, July 15, 2019 there was some notable buying of 7,151 contracts of the $60.00 call expiring on Friday, January 15, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 10.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 12.7% move in recent quarters.
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Visa Inc (V) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Tuesday, July 23, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.33 per share on revenue of $5.70 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.37 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 79% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 10.83% with revenue increasing by 8.78%. Short interest has decreased by 6.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 11.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 19.5% above its 200 day moving average of $150.03. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, July 16, 2019 there was some notable buying of 4,839 contracts of the $165.00 put expiring on Friday, August 16, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 3.1% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.6% move in recent quarters.
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Forex and Company news; News and opinion on finance; Central banks news; Market Reviews . How to trade profitably; Fundamental analysis of Forex market ; Technical analysis of Forex market; Market Overviews; Trade ideas; Tools . Economic calendar; Contact us; Home » Finance news » After-hours buzz: IRBT, T & more. After-hours buzz: IRBT, T & more. 25.07.2018 Admin 0 Finance news, Check out Get today's iRobot Corporation stock price and latest IRBT news as well as iRobot real-time stock quotes, technical analysis, full financials and more. iRobot Aktie (IRBT) mit Realtime-Aktienkurs, Chart, Bilanzinformationen, Dividenden, historischen Daten, aktuellen News und Analysen. View live IROBOT CORP chart to track its stock's price action. Find market predictions, IRBT financials and market news. IROBOT CORPORATION : Veränderung des Consensus und Kursziel der Analysten der Aktie IROBOT CORPORATION | IRBT | Nasdaq IRBT wurde in den letzten Wochen und Monaten ja mächtig gescholten. Ich bin long und überlege wie ich mit der Position weiter verfahren werde. Nach dem Abverkauf in der letzten Woche deuten nach meinem Verständnis PercentR auf einen überverkauften Markt und ADX auf eine Trendwende hin. Deute ich die Indikatoren korrekt, oder muss ich noch einmal das "Schulbuch"... Avertissement sur les risques: Le Trading Forex (Foreign Exchange) et CFD (Contrats sur la Différence) sur marge comporte un niveau important de risque et n`est pas adapté à tous les types d`investisseurs. La perte potentielle peut être égale ou supérieure au montant investi. Vous ne devriez pas investir ou risquer de l`argent que vous ne pouvez pas vous permettre de perdre. Avant d iRobot Corporation (NASDAQ: IRBT) stock research, profile, news, analyst ratings, key statistics, fundamentals, stock price, charts, earnings, guidance and peers on #IRBT Symbole - l'acronyme de l'instrument sur la plateforme de trading. Spread Minimal, Pips: 3 Spread Minimal - la valeur minimale du spread variable, exprimée en pips. Pip - pour les instruments Forex cotés avec 5 décimales (ex: EURGBP - 1.32451), 1 pip est égal à 0.00010; pour les instruments Forex cotés avec 3 décimales (ex: EURJPY- 101.522, 1 pip est égal à 0.010. Pour les All IRBT Stock Technical Studies are available in different time frames. 1 min. 5 mins; 15 mins; 30 mins ; Hourly; 5 Hours; Daily; Weekly; Monthly; Summary: Strong Buy. Moving Averages: Buy Buy
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