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Hyperinflation is Coming- The Dollar Endgame: PART 5.1- "Enter the Dragon" (SECOND HALF OF FINALE)

Hyperinflation is Coming- The Dollar Endgame: PART 5.1-

(Hey everyone, this is the SECOND half of the Finale, you can find the first half here)

The Dollar Endgame

True monetary collapses are hard to grasp for many in the West who have not experienced extreme inflation. The ever increasing money printing seems strange, alien even. Why must money supply grow exponentially? Why did the Reichsbank continue printing even as hyperinflation took hold in Germany?
What is not understood well are the hidden feedback loops that dwell under the surface of the economy.
The Dragon of Inflation, once awoken, is near impossible to tame.
It all begins with a country walking itself into a situation of severe fiscal mismanagement- this could be the Roman Empire of the early 300s, or the German Empire in 1916, or America in the 1980s- 2020s.
The State, fighting a war, promoting a welfare state, or combating an economic downturn, loads itself with debt burdens too heavy for it to bear.
This might even create temporary illusions of wealth and prosperity. The immediate results are not felt. But the trap is laid.
Over the next few years and even decades, the debt continues to grow. The government programs and spending set up during an emergency are almost impossible to shut down. Politicians are distracted with the issues of the day, and concerns about a borrowing binge take the backseat.
The debt loads begin to reach a critical mass, almost always just as a political upheaval unfolds. Murphy’s Law comes into effect.
Next comes a crisis.
This could be Visigoth tribesmen attacking the border posts in the North, making incursions into Roman lands. Or it could be the Assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand in Sarajevo, kicking off a chain of events causing the onset of World War 1.
Or it could be a global pandemic, shutting down 30% of GDP overnight.
Politicians respond as they always had- mass government mobilization, both in the real and financial sense, to address the issue. Promising that their solutions will remedy the problem, a push begins for massive government spending to “solve” economic woes.
They go to fundraise debt to finance the Treasury. But this time is different.
Very few, if any, investors bid. Now they are faced with a difficult question- how to make up for the deficit between the Treasury’s income and its massive projected expenditure. Who’s going to buy the bonds?
With few or no legitimate buyers for their debt, they turn to their only other option- the printing press. Whatever the manner, new money is created and enters the supply.
This time is different. Due to the flood of new liquidity entering the system, widespread inflation occurs. Confounded, the politicians blame everyone and everything BUT the printing as the cause.
Bonds begin to sell off, which causes interest rates to rise. With rates suppressed so low for so long, trillions of dollars of leverage has built up in the system.
No one wants to hold fixed income instruments yielding 1% when inflation is soaring above 8%. It's a guaranteed losing trade. As more and more investors run for the exits in the bond markets, liquidity dries up and volatility spikes.
The MOVE index, a measure of bond market volatility, begins climbing to levels not seen since the 2008 Financial Crisis.

MOVE Index
Sovereign bond market liquidity begins to evaporate. Weak links in the system, overleveraged several times on government debt, such as the UK’s pension funds, begin to implode.
The banks and Treasury itself will not survive true deflation- in the US, Yellen is already getting so antsy that she just asked major banks if Treasury should buy back their bonds to “ensure liquidity”!
As yields rise, government borrowing costs spike and their ability to roll their debt becomes extremely impaired. Overleveraged speculators in housing, equity and bond markets begin to liquidate positions and a full blown deleveraging event emerges.
True deflation in a macro environment as indebted as ours would mean rates soaring well above 15-20%, and a collapse in money market funds, equities, bonds, and worst of all, a certain Treasury default as federal tax receipts decline and deficits rise.
A run on the banks would ensue. Without the Fed printing, the major banks, (which have a 0% capital reserve requirement since 3/15/20), would quickly be drained. Insolvency is not the issue here- liquidity is; and without cash reserves a freezing of the interbank credit and repo markets would quickly ensue.
For those who don’t think this is possible, Tim Geitner, NY Fed President during the 2008 Crisis, stated that in the aftermath of Lehman Brothers’ bankruptcy, we were “We were a few days away from the ATMs not working” (start video at 46:07).
As inflation rips higher, the $24T Treasury market, and the $15.5T Corporate bond markets selloff hard. Soon they enter freefall as forced liquidations wipe leverage out of the system. Similar to 2008, credit markets begin to freeze up. Thousands of “zombie corporations”, firms held together only with razor thin margins and huge amounts of near zero yielding debt, begin to default. One study by a Deutsche analyst puts the figure at 25% of companies in the S&P 500.
The Central Banks respond to the crisis as they always have- coming to the rescue with the money printer, like the Bank of England did when they restarted QE, or how the Bank of Japan began “emergency bond buying operations”.
But this time is massive. They have to print more than ever before as the ENTIRE DEBT BASED FINANCIAL SYSTEM UNWINDS.
QE Infinity begins. Trillions of Treasuries, MBS, Corporate bonds, and Bond ETFs are bought up. The only manner in which to prevent the bubble from imploding is by overwhelming the system with freshly printed cash. Everything is no-limit bid.
The tsunami of new money floods into the system and a face ripping rally begins in every major asset class. This is the beginning of the melt-up phase.
The Federal Reserve, within a few months, goes from owning 30% of the Treasury market, to 70% or more. The Bank of Japan is already at 70% ownership of certain JGB issuances, and some bonds haven’t traded for a record number of days in an active market!
The Central Banks EAT the bond market. The “Lender of Last Resort” becomes “The Lender of Only Resort”.
Another step towards hyperinflation. The Dragon crawls out of his lair.

QE Process
Now the majority or even entirety of the new bond issuances from the Treasury are bought with printed money. Money supply must increase in tandem with federal deficits, fueling further inflation as more new money floods into the system.
The Fed’s liquidity hose is now directly plugged into the veins of the real economy. The heroin of free money now flows in ever increasing amounts towards Main Street.
The same face-ripping rise seen in equities in 2020 and 2021 is now mirrored in the markets for goods and services.
Prices for Food, gas, housing, computers, cars, healthcare, travel, and more explode higher. This sets off several feedback loops- the first of which is the wage-price spiral. As the prices of everything rise, real disposable income falls.
Massive strikes and turnover ensues. Workers refuse to labor for wages that are not keeping up with their expenses. After much consternation, firms are forced to raise wages or see large scale work stoppages.

Wage-Price Spiral
These higher wages now mean the firm has higher costs, and thus must charge higher prices for goods. This repeats ad infinitum.
The next feedback loop is monetary velocity- the number of times one dollar is spent to buy goods and services per unit of time. If the velocity of money is increasing, then more transactions are occurring between individuals in an economy.
The faster the dollar turns over, the more items it can bid for- and thus the more prices rise. Money velocity increasing is a key feature of a currency beginning to inflate away. In nations experiencing hyperinflation like Venezuela, where money velocity was purported to be over 7,000 annually- or more than 20 times a DAY.
As prices rise steadily, people begin to increase their inflation expectations, which leads to them going out and preemptively buying before the goods become even more expensive. This leads to hoarding and shortages as select items get bought out quickly, and whatever is left is marked up even more. ANOTHER feedback loop.
Inflation now soars to 25%. Treasury deficits increase further as the government is forced to spend more to hire and retain workers, and government subsidies are demanded by every corner of the populace as a way to alleviate the price pressures.
The government budget increases. Any hope of worker’s pensions or banks buying the new debt is dashed as the interest rates remain well below the rate of inflation, and real wages continue to fall. They thus must borrow more as the entire system unwinds.
The Hyperinflationary Feedback loop kicks in, with exponentially increasing borrowing from the Treasury matched by new money supply as the Printer whirrs away.
The Dragon begins his fiery assault.

Hyperinflationary Feedback Loop
As the dollar devalues, other central banks continue printing furiously. This phenomenon of being trapped in a debt spiral is not unique to the United States- virtually every major economy is drowning under excessive credit loads, as the average G7 debt load is 135% of GDP.
As the central banks print at different speeds, massive dislocations begin to occur in currency markets. Nations who print faster and with greater debt monetization fall faster than others, but all fiats fall together in unison in real terms.
Global trade becomes extremely difficult. Trade invoices, which usually can take several weeks or even months to settle as the item is shipped across the world, go haywire as currencies move 20% or more against each other in short timeframes. Hedging becomes extremely difficult, as vol premiums rise and illiquidity is widespread.
Amidst the chaos, a group of nations comes together to decide to use a new monetary media- this could be the Special Drawing Right (SDR), a neutral global reserve currency created by the IMF.
It could be a new commodity based money, similar to the old US Dollar pegged to Gold.
Or it could be a peer-to-peer decentralized cryptocurrency with a hard supply limit and secure payment channels.
Whatever the case- it doesn't really matter. The dollar will begin to lose dominance as the World Reserve Currency as the new one arises.
As the old system begins to die, ironically the dollar soars higher on foreign exchange- as there is a $20T global short position on the USD, in the form of leveraged loans, sovereign debt, corporate bonds, and interbank repo agreements.
All this dollar debt creates dollar DEMAND, and if the US is not printing fast enough or importing enough to push dollars out to satisfy demand, banks and institutions will rush to the Forex market to dump their local currency in exchange for dollars.
This drives DXY up even higher, and then forces more firms to dump local currency to cover dollar debt as the debt becomes more expensive, in a vicious feedback loop. This is called the Dollar Milkshake Theory, posited by Brent Johnson of Santiago Capital.
The global Eurodollar Market IS leverage- and as all leverage works, it must be fed with new dollars or risk bankrupting those who owe the debt. The fundamental issue is that this time, it is not banks, hedge funds, or even insurance giants- this is entire countries like Argentina, Vietnam, and Indonesia.

The Dollar Milkshake
If the Fed does not print to satisfy the demand needed for this Eurodollar market, the Dollar Milkshake will suck almost all global liquidity and capital into the United States, which is a net importer and has largely lost it’s manufacturing base- meanwhile dozens of developing countries and manufacturing firms will go bankrupt and be liquidated, causing a collapse in global supply chains not seen since the Second World War.
This would force inflation to rip above 50% as supply of goods collapses.
Worse yet, what will the Fed do? ALL their choices now make the situation worse.

The Fed's Triple Dilemma
Many pundits will retort- “Even if we have to print the entire unfunded liability of the US, $160T, that’s 8 times current M2 Money Supply. So we’d see 700% inflation over two years and then it would be over!”
This is a grave misunderstanding of the problem; as the Fed expands money supply and finances Treasury spending, inflation rips higher, forcing the AMOUNT THE TREASURY BORROWS, AND THUS THE AMOUNT THE FED PRINTS in the next fiscal quarter to INCREASE. Thus a 100% increase in money supply can cause a 150% increase in inflation, and on again, and again, ad infinitum.
M2 Money Supply increased 41% since March 5th, 2020 and we saw an 18% realized increase in inflation (not CPI, which is manipulated) and a 58% increase in SPY (at the top). This was with the majority of printed money really going into the financial markets, and only stimulus checks and transfer payments flowing into the real economy.
Now Federal Deficits are increasing, and in the next easing cycle, the Fed will be buying the majority of Treasury bonds.
The next $10T they print, therefore, could cause additional inflation requiring another $15T of printing. This could cause another $25T in money printing; this cycle continues forever, like Weimar Germany discovered.
The $200T or so they need to print can easily multiply into the quadrillions by the time we get there.
The Inflation Dragon consumes all in his path.
Federal Net Outlays are currently around 30% of GDP. Of course, the government has tax receipts that it could use to pay for services, but as prices roar higher, the real value of government tax revenue falls. At the end of the Weimar hyperinflation, tax receipts represented less than 1% of all government spending.
This means that without Treasury spending, literally a third of all economic output would cease.
The holders of dollar debt begin dumping them en masse for assets with real world utility and value- even simple things such as food and gas.
People will be forced to ask themselves- what matters more; the amount of Apple shares they hold or their ability to buy food next month? The option will be clear- and as they sell, massive flows of money will move out of the financial economy and into the real.
This begins the final cascade of money into the marketplace which causes the prices of everything to soar higher. The demand for money grows even larger as prices spike, which causes more Treasury spending, which must be financed by new borrowing, which is printed by the Fed. The final doom loop begins, and money supply explodes exponentially.

German Hyperinflation
Monetary velocity rips higher and eventually pushes inflation into the thousands of percent. Goods begin being re-priced by the day, and then by the hour, as the value of the currency becomes meaningless.
A new money, most likely a cryptocurrency such as Bitcoin, gains widespread adoption- becoming the preferred method and eventually the default payment mechanism. The State continues attempting to force the citizens to use their currency- but by now all trust in the money has broken down. The only thing that works is force, but even the police, military and legal system by now have completely lost confidence.
The Simulacrum breaks down as the masses begin to realize that the entire financial system, and the very currency that underpins it is a lie- an illusion, propped up via complex derivatives, unsustainable debt loads, and easy money financed by the Central Banks.
Similar to Weimar Germany, confidence in the currency finally collapses as the public awakens to a long forgotten truth-
There is no supply cap on fiat currency.

QE Infinity

When asked in 1982 what was the one word that could be used to define the Dollar, Fed Chairman Paul Volcker responded with one word-
All fiat money systems, unmoored from the tethers of hard money, are now adrift in a sea of illusion, of make-believe. The only fundamental props to support it are the trust and network effects of the participants.
These are powerful forces, no doubt- and have made it so no fiat currency dies without severe pain inflicted on the masses, most of which are uneducated about the true nature of economics and money.
But the Ships of State have wandered into a maelstrom from which there is no return. Currently, total worldwide debt stands at a gargantuan $300 Trillion, equivalent to 356% of global GDP.
This means that even at low interest rates, interest expense will be higher than GDP- we can never grow our way out of this trap, as many economists hope.
Fiat systems demand ever increasing debt, and ever increasing money printing, until the illusion breaks and the flood of liquidity is finally released into the real economy. Financial and Real economies merge in one final crescendo that dooms the currency to die, as all fiats must.
Day by day, hour by hour, the interest accrues.
The Debt grows larger.
And the Dollar Endgame Approaches.

Nothing on this Post constitutes investment advice, performance data or any recommendation that any security, portfolio of securities, investment product, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. From reading my Post I cannot assess anything about your personal circumstances, your finances, or your goals and objectives, all of which are unique to you, so any opinions or information contained on this Post are just that – an opinion or information. Please consult a financial professional if you seek advice.
*If you would like to learn more, check out my recommended reading list here. This is a dummy google account, so feel free to share with friends- none of my personal information is attached. You can also check out a Google docs version of my Endgame Series here.
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Online Poker Strategy School -

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ULTIMATE Guide to Selling Options Profitably (PART 3) : The 6 Characteristics of an Option

ULTIMATE Guide to Selling Options Profitably (PART 3) : The 6 Characteristics of an Option

This post will teach you the basics of how to properly conceptualize options in your mind.

It will then teach you how to translate the idea of what an option is into what you see in your brokerage.

I say this because if you want to trade options, you need to firstly understand and be able to conceptualize what an option is. As traders we are trying to create a sustainable way to generate returns on our time and capital. Just like any other business, we need to first understand the product we are working with. This post goes over the basics.

Simply put, options are a financial instrument.

They are not a strategy. They are not inherently better than stocks, or futures, or forex, or bonds.
They serve a particular purpose in the market, just like each of the others.
The reason many smart retail traders are attracted to options is because of what they give you exposure to.
Or more simply put*: the different ways you can make money trading them.*
As you dive deeper into the product, you will come to realize that they are an extremely versatile product that can let you express almost any view or idea you have in the market. They are pretty cool.
But in order to dive deep into options, you first need to be able to conceptualize what an option is. Let's get started.

There are 6 characteristics of an option.

Regardless of what option you are trading, they all have the same 6 characteristics that define them.
These characteristics are:
  1. An option is a contract
  2. Created between two people
  3. That gives the purchaser the right to buy or sell a stock
  4. At a set price
  5. In a set time frame
  6. For a premium
These 6 characteristics will help you conceptualize what an option is and how it works. Let's break them down!

1) An option is a contract..

When you buy or sell an option, you are not trading the stock itself. The options market is actually separate from the stock market. When you trade in the stock market, you are actually exchanging a piece of the company with others. But in the options market, when you make a trade, you are creating a contract.

2) Created between two people..

Most people think about option trading as "them VS the market". They aren't really wrong when saying that, because the market determines the prices of the options you see, but I do think people internalize that wrong.
When a we say it's "you VS the market", it's not the same as "you VS the house" at a casino.
You see, trading is not like blackjack, where all the players sit down and play against the casino.
Rather, it is more like poker, where all the players are playing against each other at the same table, betting on the events that will be unfolding.
So whenever you are placing a trade, if you break a market down to it's micro transactions, there is actually someone on the other side of that trade.
In the options market, there are two players in every transaction: The person who writes/creates the contract (seller) and the person who purchases the contract (buyer).
Whether you are the buyer or the seller, there are many different players that could be on the other side of your option contract, but we will save that for another post.

3) That gives the purchaser the right to buy or sell a stock..

The contract that the option buyer purchases gives them the right to buy or sell a stock.
This also means that by selling an option, you have an obligation to fill the order if the buyer chooses to exercise the contract.

4) At a set price..

In the options world, this is called the strike price. So for example, you might buy an option contract from someone that gives you the right to buy Apple stock at $160.
This is written into the contract. Different contracts will have different strike prices.
Now let's stop and think about this for a second. Would it make sense for an option contract to go on forever? If they did, it wouldn't really make sense to sell them (you'd have a lifetime of risk, for one time pay!).
So that brings us to the next characteristic of an option.

5) In a set time frame..

Options don't last forever. The contracts have a deadline, at which time they expire. Going back to our Apple example, you might buy an option contract that gives you the right to buy Apple at $160 in the next 30 days.
But there is one more thing we need to take into consideration. We know why someone would buy an option now. It gives them the right to buy or sell stock, at a set price, within some timeframe..
But why would anyone sell an option? Why would someone give you that right?

6) For a premium!

Purchasing options is not free. The reason someone would sell an option is because they get paid to do it.
So if we revisit our (hypothetical) Apple example, this is what the full picture would look like:
You could buy an option contract from someone that gives you the right to buy Apple at $160 in the next 30 days for a price of $10.

Now that we can visualize what an option looks like, let's learn some industry lingo.

Let's turn the picture we created into what it actually looks like when you are looking at the options market.

1. Contract = option chain.

You go into your brokerage to see it. It is literally a list of all the different contracts you can trade for a stock. When you want to buy or sell a contract, you come here and you pick the one you want to buy or sell.

2. Two people = bid/ask.

The way you can really understand that there is someone on the other side of you trade is the bid and ask. these are the prices that someone is willing to either buy a contract at (bid) or sell a contract at (ask). Every contract has a bid and an ask price.
Think of it like you are standing in a market, and someone is standing there saying "ill buy an apple contract for 1 dollar" and someone else is there saying "ill sell an apple contract for $2".
If you want to buy an option, you engage with the person on the ask side. If you want to sell an option, you engage with the person on the bid side. And sometimes, someone might actually meet you in the middle if you try to buy or sell somewhere in between those two price!
The buyers and sellers act as supply and demand for the contract, and depending on the buying and selling pressure, that's how we get the "market price" for the contract!

3. Right to buy, right to sell = calls and puts.

A call is what we call an option contract that gives the buyer the right to buy a stock.
A put is what we call an option contract that gives the buyer the right to sell a stock.
On most brokerage set ups, the left side of the option chain will be the calls and the right side will be the puts.

4. A given price = strike price

When you look at an option chain, each row is different contract that is listed. Each of these contracts that you see will have a number in the middle of the chain. $115, $120, $125... etc.
These are the prices that the contract gives the buyer the right to get the stock at! Each contract has a different stock price that the contract is based on.
Each strike price is the price you have the right to buy/sell the stock at for the options on that row.

5. Time frame = expiration date

Not all option contracts expire at the same time. Depending on the stock, you could have options that expire in 1 day, 7 days, 30 days... 2 years.. the list goes on.
When you look at the option chain, you will see that there are a bunch of different contracts listed under different dates. The date you see are the expirations for those contracts!
When you select the expiration you want to look at, it will open up the list of all the options expiring on that date.

6. Premium = Price

For each contract, there is a price associated with them. The price what someone is either willing to buy or sell the contracts for! Where do you see the price on the option chain? Well, it's the bid and the ask! You can see how much someone is willing to pay for a contract, or how much someone is willing to sell it for, right on your brokerage.
There is a lot that goes into pricing options, but for now, all you need to remember is that options are not free. There is a price associated with them.
Imagine you are standing in a marketplace. The bid is like someone else standing there looking to buy a call option for (as in the below picture) $11.90.
The ask is someone else in the marketplace saying that they will sell that same option for $12.60.
There is a gap between what the buyer wants to pay and what the seller will accept. You can sometimes purchase or sell in the middle of these two by making an offer in the middle! Trying to get something for the best price is what we call "working your order".


So let's recap the 6 characteristics of what an option is by writing out a sentence for our Apple example.
You want to buy a call on Apple's option chain that lets you buy Apple at a strike price of $160. The contract will expire in December 2021. There is someone willing to sell it to you at the "ask" price for that contract, for a premium of $15.
I hope this post makes it clear what an option contract is. With this as a basic understanding of how the product functions, we can move forward into some of the intricacies related to the product and the opportunities that they create.
Happy trading,
~ A.G.
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PokerStars School: Add these eight healthy habits to your game, and learn betting strategy with PS School on Discord

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PokerStars School: What poker style should you be using? And put these simple strategy tips to use in this month's Bankroll Challenge

PokerStars School: What poker style should you be using? And put these simple strategy tips to use in this month's Bankroll Challenge submitted by Stopthemadness42 to PokerstarsPCA [link] [comments]

Strange Things Volume II: Triffin's Dilemma and The Dollar Milkshake

Strange Things Volume II: Triffin's Dilemma and The Dollar Milkshake
As the Fed begins their journey into a deflationary blizzard, they are beginning to break markets across the globe. As the World Reserve Currency, over 60% of all international trade is done in Dollars, and USDs are the largest Foreign Exchange (Forex) holdings by far for global central banks. Now all foreign currencies are crashing against the Dollar as the vicious feedback loops of Triffin’s Dilemma come home to roost. The Dollar Milkshake has begun.
The Fed, knowingly or unknowingly, has walked into this trap- and now they find themselves caught underneath the Sword of Damocles, with no way out…

Sword Of Damocles
“The famed “sword of Damocles” dates back to an ancient moral parable popularized by the Roman philosopher Cicero in his 45 B.C. book “Tusculan Disputations.” Cicero’s version of the tale centers on Dionysius II, a tyrannical king who once ruled over the Sicilian city of Syracuse during the fourth and fifth centuries B.C.
Though rich and powerful, Dionysius was supremely unhappy. His iron-fisted rule had made him many enemies, and he was tormented by fears of assassination—so much so that he slept in a bedchamber surrounded by a moat and only trusted his daughters to shave his beard with a razor.
As Cicero tells it, the king’s dissatisfaction came to a head one day after a court flatterer named Damocles showered him with compliments and remarked how blissful his life must be. “Since this life delights you,” an annoyed Dionysius replied, “do you wish to taste it yourself and make a trial of my good fortune?” When Damocles agreed, Dionysius seated him on a golden couch and ordered a host of servants wait on him. He was treated to succulent cuts of meat and lavished with scented perfumes and ointments.
Damocles couldn’t believe his luck, but just as he was starting to enjoy the life of a king, he noticed that Dionysius had also hung a razor-sharp sword from the ceiling. It was positioned over Damocles’ head, suspended only by a single strand of horsehair.
From then on, the courtier’s fear for his life made it impossible for him to savor the opulence of the feast or enjoy the servants. After casting several nervous glances at the blade dangling above him, he asked to be excused, saying he no longer wished to be so fortunate.”
Damocles’ story is a cautionary tale of being careful of what you wish for- Those who strive for power often unknowingly create the very systems that lead to their own eventual downfall. The Sword is often used as a metaphor for a looming danger; a hidden trap that can obliterate those unaware of the great risk that hegemony brings.
Heavy lies the head which wears the crown.

There are several Swords of Damocles hanging over the world today, but the one least understood and least believed until now is Triffin’s Dilemma, which lays the bedrock for the Dollar Milkshake Theory. I’ve already written extensively about Triffin’s Dilemma around a year ago in Part 1.5 and Part 4.3 of my Dollar Endgame Series, but let’s recap again.
Here’s a great summary- read both sides of the dilemma:

Triffin's Dilemma Summarized

(Seriously, stop here and go back and read Part 1.5 and Part 4.3 Do it!)

Essentially, Triffin noted that there was a fundamental flaw in the system: by virtue of the fact that the United States is a World Reserve Currency holder, the global financial system has built in GLOBAL demand for Dollars. No other fiat currency has this.
How is this demand remedied? With supply of course! The United States thus is forced to run current account deficits - meaning it must send more dollars out into the world than it receives on a net basis. This has several implications, which again, I already outlined- but I will list in summary format below:
  1. The United States has to be a net importer, ie it must run trade deficits, in order to supply the world with dollars. Remember, dollars and goods are opposite sides of the same equation, so a greater trade deficits means that more dollars are flowing out to the world.
  2. (This will devastate US domestic manufacturing, causing political/social/economic issues at home.)
  3. These dollars flow outwards into the global economy, and are picked up by institutions in a variety of ways.
  4. First, foreign central banks will have to hold dollars as Foreign Exchange Reserves to defend their currency in case of attack on the Forex markets. This was demonstrated during the Asian Financial Crisis of 1997-98, when the Thai Baht, Malaysian Ringgit, and Philippine Peso (among other East Asian currencies) plunged against the Dollar. Their central banks attempted to defend the pegs but they failed.
  5. Second, companies will need Dollars for trade- as the USD makes up over 60% of global trade volume, and has the deepest and most liquid forex market by far, even small firms that need to transact cross border trade will have to acquire USDs in order to operate. When South Africa and Chile trade, they don’t want to use Mexican Pesos or Korean Won- they want Dollars.
  6. Foreign governments need dollars. There are several countries already who have adopted the Dollar as a replacement for their own currency- Ecuador and Zimbabwe being prime examples. There’s a full list here.
  7. Third world governments that don’t fully adopt dollars as their own currencies will still use them to borrow. Argentina has 70% of it’s debt denominated in dollars and Indonesia has 30%, for example. Dollar-denominated debt will build up overseas.
The example I gave in Part 1.5 was that of Liberia, a small West African Nation looking to enter global trade. Needing to hold dollars as part of their exchange reserves, the Liberian Central Bank begins buying USDs on the open market. The process works in a similar fashion for large Liberian export companies.

Dollar Recycling

Essentially, they print their own currency to buy Dollars. Wanting to earn interest on this massive cash hoard when it isn’t being used, they buy Treasuries and other US debt securities to get a yield.
As their domestic economy grows, their need and dependence on the Dollar grows as well. Their Central Bank builds up larger and larger hoards of Treasuries and Dollars. The entire thesis is that during times of crisis, they can sell the Treasuries for USD, and use the USDs to buy back their own currency on the market- supporting its value and therefore defending the peg.
This buying pressure on USDs and Treasuries confers a massive benefit to the United States-

The Exorbitant Privilege

This buildup of excess dollars ends up circulating overseas in banks, trade brokers, central banks, governments and companies. These overseas dollars are called the Eurodollar system- a 2016 research paper estimated the size to be around $13.8 Trillion USD. This system is not under official Federal Reserve jurisdiction so it is difficult to get accurate numbers on its size.

This means the Dollar is always artificially stronger than it should be- and during financial calamity, the dollar is a safe haven as there are guaranteed bidders.
All this dollar denominated debt paired with the global need for dollars in trade creates strong and persistent dollar demand. Demand that MUST be satisfied.
This creates systemic risk on a worldwide scale- an unforeseen Sword of Damocles that hangs above the global financial system. I’ve been trying to foreshadow this in my Dollar Endgame Series.
Triffin’s Dilemma is the basis for the Dollar Milkshake Theory posited by Brent Johnson.

The Dollar Milkshake

Milkshake of Liquidity
In 2021, Brent worked with RealVision to create a short summary of his thesis- the video can be found here. I should note that Brent has had this theory for years, dating back to 2018, when he first came on podcasts and interviews and laid out his theory (like this video, for example).
Here’s the summary below:
“A giant milkshake of liquidity has been created by global central banks with the dollar as its key ingredient - but if the dollar moves higher this milkshake will be sucked into the US creating a vicious spiral that could quickly destabilize financial markets.
The US dollar is the bedrock of the world's financial system. It greases the wheels of global commerce and exchange- the availability of dollars, cost of dollars, and the level of the dollar itself each can have an outsized impact on economies and investment opportunities.
But more important than the absolute level or availability of dollars is the rate of change in the level of the dollar. If the level of the dollar moves too quickly and particularly if the level rises too fast then problems start popping up all over the place (foreign countries begin defaulting).
Today however many people are convinced that both the role of the Dollar is diminishing and the level of the dollar will only decline. People think that the US is printing so many dollars that the world will be awash with the greenback causing the value of the dollar to fall.
Now it's true that the US is printing a lot of dollars – but other countries are also printing their own currencies in similar amounts so in theory it should even out in terms of value.
But the hidden issue is the difference in demand. Remember the global financial system is built on the US dollar which means even if they don't want them everybody still needs them and if you need something you don't really have much choice. (See DXY Index):

DXY Index

Although many countries like China are trying to reduce their reliance on dollar transactions this will be a very slow transition. In the meantime the risks of a currency or sovereign debt crisis continue to rise.
But now countries like China and Japan need dollars to buy copper from Australia so the Chinese and the Japanese owe dollars and Australia is getting paid in dollars.
Europe and Asia currently doing very limited amount of non-dollar transactions for oil so they still need dollars to buy oil from saudi and again dollars get hoovered up on both sides
Asia and Europe need dollars to buy soybeans from Brazil. This pulls in yet more dollars - everybody needs dollars for trade invoices, central bank currency reserves and servicing massive cross-border dollar denominated debts of governments and corporations outside the USA.
And the dollar-denominated debt is key- if they don't service their debts or walk away from their dollar debts their funding costs rise putting great financial pressure on their domestic economies. Not only that, it can lead to a credit contraction and a rapid tightening of dollar supply.
The US is happy with the reliance on the greenback they own the settlement system which benefits the US banks who process all the dollars and act as gatekeepers to the Dollar system they police and control the access to the system which benefits the US military machine where defense spending is in excess of any other country so naturally the US benefits from the massive volumes of dollar usage.

Other countries have naturally been grumbling about being held hostage to the situation but the choices are limited. What it does mean is that dollars need to be constantly sucked out of the USA because other countries all over the world need them to do business and of course the more people there are who need and want those dollars the more is the pressure on the price of dollars to go up.
In fact, global demand is so high that the supply of dollars is just not enough to keep up, even with the US continually printing money. This is why we haven't seen consistently rising US inflation despite so many QE and stimulus programs since the global financial crisis in 2008.
But, the real risk comes when other economies start to slow down or when the US starts to grow relative to the other economies. If there is relatively less economic activity elsewhere in the world then there are fewer dollars in global circulation for others to use in their daily business and of course if there are fewer in circulation then the price goes up as people chase that dwindling source of dollars.
Which is terrible for countries that are slowing down because just when they are suffering economically they still need to pay for many goods in dollars and they still need to service their debts which of course are often in dollars too.

So the vortex begins or as we like to say the dollar milkshake- As the level of the dollar rises the rest of the world needs to print more and more of its own currency to then convert to dollars to pay for goods and to service its dollar debt this means the dollar just keeps on rising in response many countries will be forced to devalue their own currencies so of course the dollar rises again and this puts a huge strain on the global system.
(see the charts below:)



To make matters worse in this environment the US looks like an attractive safe haven so the US ends up sucking in the capital from the rest of the world-the dollar rises again. Pretty soon you have a full-scale sovereign bond and currency crisis.

We're now into that final napalm run that sees the dollar and dollar assets accelerate even higher and this completely undermines global markets. Central banks try to prevent disorderly moves, but the global markets are bigger and the momentum unstoppable once it takes hold.
And that is the risk that very few people see coming but that everyone should have a hedge against - when the US sucks up the dollar milkshake, bad things are going to happen.
Worst of all there's no alternatives- what are you going to use-- Chinese Yuan? Japanese Yen? the Euro??
Now, like it or not we're stuck with a dollar underpinning the global financial system.”
Why is it playing out now, in real time?? It all leads back to a tweet I made in a thread on September 16th.

Tweet Thread about the Yuan

The Fed, rushing to avoid a financial crisis in March 2020, printed trillions. This spurred inflation, which they then swore to fight. Thus they began hiking interest rates on March 16th, and began Quantitative Tightening this summer.
QE had stopped- No new dollars were flowing out into a system which has a constant demand for them. Worse yet, they were hiking completely blind-
Although the Fed is very far behind the curve, (meaning they are hiking far too late to really combat inflation)- other countries are even farther behind!
Japan has rates currently at 0.00- 0.25%, and the Eurozone is at 1.25%. These central banks have barely begun hiking, and some even swear to keep them at the zero-bound. By hiking domestic interest rates above foreign ones, the Fed is incentivizing what are called carry trades.
Since there is a spread between the Yen and the Dollar in terms of interest rates, it thus is profitable for traders to borrow in Yen (shorting it essentially) and buy Dollars, which can earn 2.25% interest. The spread would be around 2%.
DXY rises, and the Yen falls, in a vicious feedback loop.
Thus capital flows out of Japan, and into the US. The US sucks up the Dollar Milkshake, draining global liquidity. As I’ve stated before, this has seriously dangerous implications for the global financial system.
For those of you who don’t believe this could be foreseen, check out the ending paragraphs of Dollar Endgame Part 4.3 - “Economic Warfare and the End of Bretton Woods” published February 16, 2022:

Triffin's Dilemma is the Final Nail

What I’ve been attempting to do in my work is restate Triffins’ Dilemma, and by extension the Dollar Milkshake, in other terms- to come at the issue from different angles.
Currently the Fed is not printing money. Which is thus causing havoc in global trade (seen in the currency markets) because not enough dollars are flowing out to satisfy demand.
The Fed must therefore restart QE unless it wants to spur a collapse on a global scale. Remember, all these foreign countries NEED to buy, borrow and trade in a currency that THEY CANNOT PRINT!
We do not have enough time here to go in depth on the Yen, Yuan, Pound or the Euro- all these currencies have different macro factors and trade factors which affect their currencies to a large degree. But the largest factor by FAR is Triffin’s Dilemma + the Dollar Milkshake, and their desperate need for dollars. That is why basically every fiat currency is collapsing versus the Dollar.
The Fed, knowingly or not, is basically in charge of the global financial system. They may shout, “We raise rates in the US to fight inflation, global consequences be damned!!” - But that’s a hell of a lot more difficult to follow when large G7 countries are in the early stages of a full blown currency crisis.
The most serious implication is that the Fed is responsible for supplying dollars to everyone. When they raise rates, they trigger a margin call on the entire world. They need to bail them out by supplying them with fresh dollars to stabilize their currencies.
In other words, the Fed has to run the loosest and most accommodative monetary policy worldwide- they must keep rates as low as possible, and print as much as possible, in order to keep the global financial system running. If they don’t do that, sovereigns begin to blow up, like Japan did last week and like England did on Wednesday.
And if the world’s financial system implodes, they must bail out not only the United States, but virtually every global central bank. This is the Sword of Damocles. The money needed for this would be well in the dozens of trillions.
The Dollar Endgame Approaches…


(Many of you have been messaging me with questions, rebuttals or comments. I’ll do my best to answer some of the more poignant ones here.)

Q: I’ve been reading your work, you keep saying the dollar is going to fall in value, and be inflated away. Now you’re switching sides and joining the dollar bull faction. Seems like you don’t know what you’re talking about!
A: You’re mixing up my statements. When I discuss the dollar losing value, I am referring to it falling in ABSOLUTE value, against goods and services produced in the real economy. This is what is called inflation. I made this call in 2021, and so far, it has proven right as inflation has accelerated.
The dollar gaining strength ONLY applies to foreign currency exchange markets (Forex)- remember, DXY, JPYUSD, and other currency pairs are RELATIVE indicators of value. Therefore, both JPY and USD can be falling in real terms (inflation) but if one is falling faster, then that one will lose value relative to the other. Also, Forex markets are correlated with, but not an exact match, for inflation.
I attempted to foreshadow the entire dollar bull thesis in the conclusion of Part 1 of the Dollar Endgame, posted well over a year ago-

Unraveling of the Currency Markets

I did not give an estimate on when this would happen, or how long DXY would be whipsawed upwards, because I truly do not know.
I do know that eventually the Fed will likely open up swap lines, flooding the Eurodollar market with fresh greenbacks and easing the dollar short squeeze. Then selling pressure will resume on the dollar. They would only likely do this when things get truly calamitous- and we are on our way towards getting there.
The US bond market is currently in dire straits, which matches the prediction of spiking interest rates. The 2yr Treasury is at 4.1%, it was at 3.9% just a few days ago. Only a matter of time until the selloff gets worse.
Q: Foreign Central banks can find a way out. They can just use their reserves to buy back their own currency.
Sure, they can try that. It’ll work for a while- but what happens once they run out of reserves, which basically always happens? I can’t think of a time in financial history that a country has been able to defend a currency peg against a sustained attack.

Global Forex Reserves

They’ll run out of bullets, like they always do, and basically the only option left will be to hike interest rates, to attract capital to flow back into their country. But how will they do that with global debt to GDP at 356%? If all these countries do that, they will cause a global depression on a scale never seen before.
Britain, for example, has a bit over $100B of reserves. That provides maybe a few months of cover in the Forex markets until they’re done.
Furthermore, you are ignoring another vicious feedback loop. When the foreign banks sell US Treasuries, this drives up yields in the US, which makes even more capital flow to the US! This weakens their currency even further.

FX Feedback Loop

To add insult to injury, this increases US Treasury borrowing costs, which means even if the Fed completely ignores the global economy imploding, the US will pay much more in interest. We will reach insolvency even faster than anyone believes.
The 2yr Treasury bond is above 4%- with $31T of debt, that means when we refinance we will pay $1.24 Trillion in interest alone. Who's going to buy that debt? The only entity with a balance sheet large enough to absorb that is the Fed. Restarting QE in 3...2…1…
Q: I live in England. With the Pound collapsing, what can I do? What will happen from here? How will the governments respond?
England, and Europe in general, is in serious trouble. You guys are currently facing a severe energy crisis stemming from Russia cutting off Nord Stream 1 in early September and now with Nord Stream 2 offline due to a mysterious leak, energy supplies will be even more tight.
Not to mention, you have a pretty high debt to GDP at 95%. Britain is a net importer, and is still running government deficits of £15.8 billion (recorded in Q1 2022). Basically, you guys are the United States without your own large scale energy and defense sector, and without Empire status and a World Reserve Currency that you once had.
The Pound will almost certainly continue falling against the Dollar. The Bank of England panicked on Wednesday in reaction to a $100M margin call on British pension funds, and now has begun buying long dated (10yr) gilts, or government bonds.
They’re doing this as inflation is spiking there even worse than the US, and the nation faces a currency crisis as the Pound is nearing parity with the Dollar.

BOE announces bond-buying scheme (9/28/22)

I will not sugarcoat it, things will get rough. You need to hold cash, make sure your job, business, or investments are secure (ie you have cashflow) and hunker down. Eliminate any unnecessary purchases. If you can, buy USDs as they will likely continue to rise and will hold value better than your own currency.
If Parliament goes through with more tax cuts, that will only make the fiscal situation worse and result in more borrowing, and thus more money printing in the end.
Q: What does this mean for Gamestop? For the domestic US economy?
Gamestop will continue to operate as I am sure they have been- investing in growth and expanding their Web3 platform.
Fiat is fundamentally broken. This much is clear- we need a new financial system not based on flawed 16th fractional banking principles or “trust me bro” financial intermediaries.
My hope is that they are at the forefront of a new financial system which does not require centralized authorities or custodians- one where you truly own your assets, and debasement is impossible.
I haven’t really written about GME extensively because it’s been covered so well by others, and I don’t feel I have that much to add.
As for the US economy, we are still in a deep recession, no matter what the politicians say- and it will get worse. But our economic troubles, at least in the short term (6 months) will not be as severe as the rest of the world due to the aforementioned Dollar Milkshake.
The debt crisis is still looming, midterms are approaching, and the government continues to deficit spend as if there’s no tomorrow.
As the global monetary system unravels, yields will spike, the deleveraging will get worse, and our dollar will get stronger. The fundamental factors continue to deteriorate.
I’ve covered the US enough so I'll leave it there.
Q: Did you know about the Dollar Milkshake Theory before recently? What did you think of it?
Of course I knew about it, I’ve been following Brent Johnson since he appeared on RealVision and Macrovoices. He laid out the entire theory in 2018 in a long form interview here. I listened to it maybe a couple times, and at the time I thought he was right- I just didn’t know how right he was.
Brent and I have followed each other and been chatting a little on Twitter- his handle is SantiagoAuFund, I highly recommend you give him a follow.

Twitter Chat

I’ve never met him in person, but from what I can see, his predictions are more accurate than almost anyone else in finance. Again, all credit to him- he truly understands the global monetary system on a fundamental level.
I believed him when he said the dollar would rally- but the speed and strength of the rally has surprised me. I’ve heard him predict DXY could go to 150, mirroring the massive DXY squeeze post the 1970s stagflation. He could very easily be right- and the absolute chaos this would mean for global trade and finance are unfathomable.

History of DXY

Q: The Pound and Euro are falling just because of the energy crisis there. That's it!
Why is the Yen falling then? How about the Yuan? Those countries are not currently undergoing an energy crisis. Let’s review the year to date performance of most fiat currencies vs the dollar:
Japanese Yen: -20.31%
Chinese Yuan: -10.79%
South African Rand: -10.95%
English Pound: -18.18%
Euro: -14.01%
Swiss Franc: -6.89%
South Korean Won: -16.73%
Indian Rupee: -8.60%
Turkish Lira: -27.95%
There are only a handful of currencies positive against the dollar, the most notable being the Russian Ruble and the Brazilian Real- two countries which have massive commodity resources and are strong exporters. In an inflationary environment, hard assets do best, so this is no surprise.
Q: What can the average person do to prepare? What are you doing?
Obligatory this is NOT financial advice
This is an extremely difficult question, as there are so many factors. You need to ask yourself, what is your financial situation like? How much disposable income do you have? What things could you cut back on? I can’t give you specific ideas without knowing your situation.
Personally, I am building up savings and cutting down on expenses. I’m getting ready for a severe recession/depression in the US and trying to find ways to increase my income, maybe a side hustle or switching jobs.
I am holding my GME and not selling- I still have some shares in Fidelity that I need to DRS (I know, sorry, I was procrastinating).
For the next few months, I believe there will be accelerating deflation as interest rates spike and the debt cycle begins to unwind. But like I’ve stated before, this will lead us towards a second Great Depression very rapidly, and to avoid the deflationary blizzard the Fed will restart QE on a scale never seen before.
QE Infinity. This will be the impetus for even worse inflation- 25%+ by this time next year.
It’s hard to prepare for this, and easy to feel hopeless. It’s important to know that we have been through monetary crises before, and society did not devolve into a zombie apocalypse. You are not alone, and we will get through this together.
It’s also important to note that we are holding the most lopsided investment opportunity of a generation. Any money you put in there can be grown by orders of magnitude.
We are at the end of the Central Bankers game- and although it will be painful, we will rid the world of them, I believe, and build a new financial system based on blockchains which will disintermediate the institutions. They have everything to lose.
Q: I want to learn more, where can I do? What can I do to keep up to date with everything?
You can start by reading books, listening to podcasts, and checking the news to stay abreast of developments. I have a book list linked at the end of the Dollar Endgame posts.
I’ll be covering the central bank clown show on Twitter, you can follow me there if you like. I’ll also include links to some of my favorite macro people below:
I’m still finishing up the finale for Dollar Endgame- I should have it out soon. I’m also writing an addendum to the series which is purely Q&A to answer questions and concerns. Sorry for the wait.
Nothing on this Post constitutes investment advice, performance data or any recommendation that any security, portfolio of securities, investment product, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.
submitted by peruvian_bull to Superstonk [link] [comments]

PokerStars School: Two players tell their Turbo Series stories, five new strategies to try out this weekend, and what are the pros (and cons) of being pro?

PokerStars School: Two players tell their Turbo Series stories, five new strategies to try out this weekend, and what are the pros (and cons) of being pro? submitted by Stopthemadness42 to PokerstarsPCA [link] [comments]

A lengthy complete ARAM guide by a high-MMR player (Win dat clash)

0.1 – What is ARAM?
ARAM is initially a custom game mode (= created by the players) of LoL, largely inspired by what had already be done on DotA or Starcraft. ARAM means All Random All Mid: two teams of five players compete on a single line of a MOBA map, with death being the only option to reset and buy items. Then, ARAM was adopted by Riot, and now receives updates and some balancing mechanics specific to this mode.
0.2 – Why this guide?
ARAM has long been seen (and still is, for the most part) as a "fun" or "casual" game mode used for laughing with friends or strangers, testing champions or builds. AND THIS IS TOTALLY OK, you should never flame someone for not having the competitive mentality (or for anything else, basically). This casual playing of ARAM was especially true in the past, when ARAMs were highly unbalanced based on the luck factor. However, there are several reasons why ARAM now goes a bit further than that, which may explain why some people might want to read a guide to progress in ARAM, win the next Clash or even reach high-MMR ARAM.
- ARAM is still LoL, two teams of players in cognitive-motor competition, with losers and winners and therefore a performance system rewarding the fact of being better than the opponent. - ARAM has its own MMR, its own Elo system following a more or less normal law: the more you progress, the more difficult it is to progress - ARAM has its own mechanisms and its own rhythm of play. While there is strategy, tactical mechanics are much more rewarded than strategic ones and thus these reward systems are more quickly implemented: the reward for a good engage at level 6 is much more immediate in ARAM than the reward for farming in 1v1 toplane during 16 minutes on the rift. The dominance of tactical mechanics makes ARAM more like an action game than a MOBA, which are themselves very competitive games.
If there are some guides on the internet for ARAM, they are often very succinct ("x tips to be better in ARAM"), often quite old, and often quite bad because the level at the top of the MMR of ARAM has largely progressed. Hence the idea of this collaborative guide. The goal here is to describe the main mechanisms of ARAM while trying not to make it too dependent on the patch of the moment to avoid making it obsolete too quickly. Feel free to add your comments and ask your questions, and feel free to adapt the content.
0.3 – Who’s talking?
Ideally, I would like this guide to become collaborative, so feel free to use its content and / or contact me. In the meantime, I am the sole author. I started playing video games before I could read on Age of Empires 1 and Starcraft. Then I spent my middle school years playing Warcraft3 & DotA as well as Footmen Frenzy and other custom action cards, where I frequently played with some big names of the e-sport scene. On the Rift I didn't feel like persevering any further than D1 because my mechanics were not enough to win easily anymore. I have about 6000 ARAM games under my belt, half of them at medium elo with my friends (so I know that level well too), and half of them at high-MMR ARAM (when whatismymmr was active I was at 3600mmr, 0.01% best players, top ~150 EUW). I change my nickname very regularly, but high level players could meet me under the following nicknames in the last years: Ouroboros, Poildepubix, ZiggyBlake, LionelJospin. English is not my first language, so please excuse the funny sentences.
0.4 – What is high-MMR ARAM?
Since it is a different MMR than Rift, there is a top level of ARAM (when whatismymmr was active, it could be considered above 3500, top 500 server). The queue to find a game can be quite long (even though most players are very active), and most players know each other by nickname. These ARAM games are very serious (even if there is sometimes dancing and flashing at the beginning) but cordial: it is very rare that the global chat is used (except for gg wp at the end), as well as the team chat. In fact, the communication is rather latent (a few pings at the most) because everyone knows the game very well. Beyond the game mechanics, the big difference with the mid-level ARAMs of the curve (silver-gold-platinum) is in the team compositions, but we'll come back to that. A good videoe on the history of high elo ARAM :
1.1 – Is ARAM a matter of luck?
It's a common saying (especially when one is losing, especially at medium-elo) that the opposing team has had “better luck” with randomly drawn champions. This may have been true (and sometimes still is) in the past, before Riot's balancing. A champion like Sona, for example, at one time had around an 80% WinRate (WR). Today, and even though it's preseason, the WRs range from 57% to 43%, which is obviously still huge. However: ARAM is still a deterministic game in which player action predominates. Give the 5 worst Wrs champs to a high-MMR team, and the 5 highest Wrs champs to an average-MMR team, you can run thousands of games and the result will always be the same: the average elo players will get blown out. Completely subjectively, I would say that 70% of a game is decided by the individual level of the players, 20% by the cohesion of the composition, and 10% by the characters themselves. Obviously, when the two teams are of equal level, the luck parameter exists, but will not reside in some randomly drawn characters, but rather in the overall composition and the possibility of optimization (rolls). The final chance parameter is individual: that each player will get a champion on which they are particularly good at, which brings us to the "champion pool" and team compositions.
1.2 – Does picks matter in ARAM?
Yes, yes, yes and yes again. This is a very strong difference that I see when playing at 2000 or 3500 elo. At 3500, players take from the available champions things that "go together", and very often, when a player changes champions, another player will change to fit this new pick. At 2000 elo, everyone takes "individually strong" characters. In ARAM, as in LoL or in real life, a whole is never equal to the simple addition of its components. Ezreal, Tristana and Jinx are very powerful champions in ARAM. But having all 3 in a team will make your teamcomp very bad. There is no such thing as a typical, well-thought-out lineup, since ARAM is all about adaptation: you don't know what you're going to get, and more importantly, you don't know what you're going to face. However, there are compositional patterns that you must, if you wish to progress, learn to recognize in order to optimize them during the champion select. An attempt to describe these patterns is made in Chapter 4. Obviously, in order to optimize your team (and allow your teamates to do the same) you must be generous with your rolls. The more you roll, the more you increase your chances to win the game: not only do you increase the chances to get a character from your pool, but also from the pool of your teammates, but you also allow team adaptation. If you have 2 rolls, you NEED TO REROLLl!
1.3 – Does ARAM require a specific pool of champions?
Some ARAM tutorials will tell you to create a special ARAM account where you only unlock champions that are 1) strong in ARAM, and 2) that you are very good at. While this strategy is understandable, I don't think it's the right one because you reduce the ratio of rolls you have. When you have all the champions, you have approximately one roll per game. Also, if you only have your own pool and you play ADC, you are very likely to run into free champions that you don't own (while having few rolls). Similarly, you don't allow your teammates to run into their own comfort picks, or to balance the team composition. It is often better to play a strong character for the team moderately well than to play an unnecessary character for the team very well. Also, I recommend that you play all champions in ARAM at least once or twice, so that you can see their strengths and weaknesses. Lastly, if you stay on confort picks you will not be expanding your pool, and as I just said, it is better to play all champions at the right level (to adapt), rather than a few very good ones. For the same reasons, I don't recommend dodging if you don't have one of your champions. In general and since there is no laning phase, your level on a specific champion has less impact than your overall level and your team synergy: dodging a skillshot works the same way on all champions. What is important is to understand each champion, and therefore you need have all of them in your hands at least once.
1.4 - Does ARAM have a tier list of champions?
Sort of. Some champions are generally "good" at ARAM. However, most of them depend on their composition and current patches. An unprotected Kogmaw against a LeBlanc and a Zed will be completely useless, but combined with a tank and a support it will become unstoppable. Some champions will be considered rather bad, but in the right hands and with the right team they will become excellent. A list of ARAM champions is proposed Chapter 5, but this list can change very quickly and require particular builds. A fundamental point to understand in order to progress in ARAM is indeed the adaptation of builds, see (3.4) and (3.10).
1.5 – Does ARAM have technical specificities?
Yes, several mechanics of ARAM differ from those of Rift. They can be found on the wiki The main ones to be aware of are 1) 15% damage reduction at 1000+ units of distance, 2) heals on teammates are reduced by 50% (not self heals), 3) some characters are buffed or nerfed on their damages dealt, damages received, healings and shieldings. It was this tricky game of balancing that broke the absolute supremacy of poke +1 healer teams (e.g. ziggs, varus, jayce, xerath, sona), and introduced diversity in the meta. For example, tryndamere was considered a trash tier champ for a very long time. Today, I classify him an A+ tier. All of these differences are indicated by hovering over a character's "Howling abyss" buff, which I encourage you to check regularly. Finally, ARAM has two unique summoner spells: [Clarity] & [Mark], and a few items.
1.6 – Does ARAM have a summoner spell specificity?
Yes. First, their cooldown is reduced. As in the Rift, and with rare exceptions, [Flash] is dominant, though its use changes a bit from the Rift as we'll see later (3.2). As for the other summoner spells, they are contextual. [Ghost] is very strong in ARAM as the reset during a long teamfight is delicious. [Heal] (or even [Exhaust] but I don't like it) can be used for ADC, mages and enchanters. On some ADC, I play [Cleanse]. [Ignite] is useless in my opinion. For all other cases, I recommend [Mark]. Personally, I use [Flash] + [Mark] in 90% of my games, and I will explain the strength of [Mark] in section (3.3).
1.7 – Does ARAM have runes specificities?
Yes, some runes are way better in ARAM than others, but also way better than they are on the Rift. Because of continuous and long fighting, you want runes with low or no cooldown. Even if this guide tries not to be too much patch specific, I’ll give some examples for S12: in the Precision tree, Lethal tempo and Conqueror are usually better than Press the Attack and Fleet Footwork, because they have no cooldown. Triump is so nerfed that is useless, but Presence of mind is a must have if your champ has some mana. The legends are great, as they will stack easily. In the Domination tree, Electrocute has a lot of cooldown, I’d rather use Dark Harvest as it reset on kills. In the Sorcery tree, Aery is great on enchanters, Arcane Comet on pokers, and Phase rush is contextual. Manaflow is mandatory if you have mana as it will stack quickly. Transcendance is one of the best rune because of the cooldown reset on kills, and finally, Gathering Storm is huge because it stacks faster (you can end up with +48 AD or +80 AP very easily). In the Resolve tree, Grasp is my favorite, because both Aftershock and Guardian have some big cooldown. Then, Conditioning is way better than Bone or Second win, because of the cooldown they have. Finally, Overgrowth, Revitalize and Unflinching are all insanely good.
1.8 – Does ARAM have items specificities?
Yes, there are a few ARAM items specificities, but they are clearly not game changing. It has to be noted that Tear of the Goddess and other stacking items will stack faster in ARAM. Corrupting potion does not exist, nor wards or trinkets. Shopping in ARAM is essentially the same as buying equipment on the Rift. Focus on item completion, and when you can't, focus on buying the most expensive single component (a BF rather than a zeal). There are two issues that need to be addressed though, Guardian items and potions. For potions, I strongly advise against the use of red potions (except in the mage starter Lost chapter + two potions), and I rather advise the use of the green reusable potion if it fits in your first purchase. For Guardian items, I strongly recommend the Horn to frontliners, especially if there are a lot of auto-attackers. For Blade, this one varies a bit, a Khazix or a Jayce will benefit greatly from it, as will an aggressive Renekton or a Pyke. For the Orb, I prefer the Lost Chapter starter, which allows to complete the mythic item quickly (if there is a mythic item), but some enchanter will enjoy the Guardian Orb. Finally, the Hammer is a very good starter for an ADC who doesn't need to complete his mythic quickly. It is important to understand that the stats provided by Guardian items are much higher than those provided by standard components. Therefore, if your whole team has bought guardian items and the other team has not, your early game will be much more powerful and you should take advantage of it. On the other hand, you may face a power spike when completing mythical items that should arrive before yours, so you should beware. Itemization is discussed in (3.4).
CHAPTER 2 – ARAM Temporality
2.1 – Champion select
The first step, if you have 2 rolls, is to throw a roll (even if you want to take back your first champion quiclky). The second step is to look at the champion that you want to play the most (yes we are here to enjoy ourselves anyway). The third step, if you really want to tryhard, is to ask yourself if your team can be optimized depending on team compositions patterns of Chapter 4. Here are some basic questions which are most of the time applicable during champ select:
- Do you have a roughly balanced mix of AP and AD damage?
- Do you have a roughly balanced mix of DPS, frontlane and support?
- Do you have any synergies to implement (e.g. Orianna or Alistar + Yasuo; Braum + autoattackers; Amumu + Rumble...)
While it is still possible to win (remember, 70% of victory comes from individual mechanics), I would advise against full AD/AP and/or no frontlane and/or no ADC and/or no CC and/or no support. Think of these points as checkboxes, the more you check, the better. It is easier to win with 4 tanks and an ADC than with 4 ADCs and a tank. ADCs are the most popular picks in ARAM, but should be considered like pickles on a burger: if you put one on, it makes everything better, if you put too many on, it's gross. Regarding synergies, look at the patterns (Chapter 4). If I take Irelia and my team only has poke, will I really 1) have fun and 2) be useful? Your team will run away as soon as you try to engage and alone you won't have the means to do anything. Perhaps a Janna or a Braum for counter-engagement is better. On the other hand, if you have a primary engage source on your team, like Alistar, and an ADC who can follow up quickly, like Tristana, then playing Irelia makes sense. Try, during the select field, to imagine your team during combat. Finally, and of course, make your runes and summoner spells according to your character and your team.
2.2 – Loading game
Take a look at the composition of the opposing team to adapt your build and playstyle. Obviously, if you see a Blitzcrank or a Pyke, avoid the blind bushes at first. But go into a little more detail: are the enemies predominantly AD or AP? At what dominance? If dominance is over 80% on either side, you should on almost every champion have a defensive item in mind. The resistances value exponentially. If I’m playing melee and if I see that there is a lot of AP damage and I can play a Spirit Visage then I might start my game with a Spectre’s Cowl, which is great in early. If the damage is mixed, I'll start with a Guardian Horn instead. Even as an ADC, if you have 4+ sources of AD damage in front of you, you should consider Tabi (Plated) or even a Randuin. If enemy team is mostly AP, I’ll consider a Malmortius or a Wit's End. But resistances are not your only source of adaptation. If you're playing an ADC like Kalista or Varus, look at what you're going to hit. Tanks with lots of life? You might want to consider an on-hit or critical build. Squishies? Favour the lethality. Playing as a mage, do you need HP% max damage (Liandry ?), or burst (Luden ?), or CC (Everfrost ?). Finally, look at the origins of threats: which spells should I absolutely avoid? Which spells should I wait to see go off before committing myself? For example, if I'm playing Irelia or Sylas against a pantheon, maybe it's better to wait for the Pantheon to cast its stun on my Rell. The important thing here is to be aware of the priority threats. If you are playing in a premade team, it may be important to discuss strategy: should you turtle until level 6? Should you scale as long as possible?
2.3 – Early game
Don't forget to dance at the beginning, or even flash in the air to show who the coolkid is, but don't give the first blood for free. Don't sacrifice 4 players to get the first blood. Depending on the compo, try to take good trade, poke, but above all, privilege the push. It is essential to push the first wave as soon as possible, but also the following ones. YOU DON'T WANT TO BE STUCK UNDER YOUR TOWER. There are several reasons for this: 1) you want to keep your tower alive, and being under your tower allows enemies and minions to damage it, and 2) it is much harder to fight when there is a wave of enemy creeps between you and your targets because they will block the skillshot (and the Mark) in addition of attacking you, 3) you lose the vision on the bushes, leaving this privilege to the opponents, 4) you lose the psychological ascendancy, 5) you will have the level 6 after your opponents, which constitutes the biggest power spike of ARAM, and finally 6) you give access to the enemies to your relic of health, or even lose access to it. The first few waves will largely decide the dynamics of the game: it's much easier to push when you already have pushed, so fight for push. Keep an eye on level 6s (if you have them before, engage, if not, run away), as well as healing relics.
2.4 – Mid game
We won't lie, the middle of the game in ARAM becomes a more or less organized mess, even at high level (I'm talking about soloq): you run to defend a tower, you die defending it, your team regains a 4v3 advantage, then dies... The important thing is to know your priorities: do you have a better scaling than the other team? If yes, you can play defensive. If not, play aggro: push and dive if needed. As soon as you are in range of the tower, ATTACK IT! This is a mistake I see all the time at low elo, mages or ADCs in range of the tower wont attack it for fear of putting themselves in danger, yet small nibbles can make a fundamental difference. If your team relies heavily on level 6s, (e.g. Amumu, Swain, Kennen...), do not hesitate to switch from aggressive to passive. If you want to win, and with rare exceptions, you should die as little as possible. Not only will you not be there to push and thus nibble the towers, but you will also lose gold and experience, and give some to your opponent. It is somehow less visible than in Rift, but snowball in ARAM is very real. Gold and passive experience gains on minions is not negligible, but especially from kills. For that, keep the mental! At low elo I see players trying and trying the same thing without success, dying repeatidly. Indeed, inhibiting your desire to run with predator Singed is a little less fun for 90 seconds, but you'll have more fun waiting for the R of your Amumu than dying alone, feeding the opponent team and triggering a teamfight in 4v5. Once you are 2 levels and 2000 gold behind and in ARAM, it's over for you (and probably your team). In midgame I also advise against giving yourself to the opposing team when you don't have many hit points left: usually the opponents will take risk to finish you off, and even if you die the enemies will put themselves in danger for that, leaving your teammates with extra kills. If you give yourself up, the result is the same, but for free. The exception is if you manage to get yourself executed.
2.5 – End Game
At the end of the game, the resource to manage is time: it is important to know when a death is potentially the last one and to estimate the respawn times. If you die in the middle of the map while messing around and leaving your team 4v5 when there is only one tower left, you will most likely be too late for the last teamfight or join it when its already well underway. If you have to die, make sure that others can defend, or that you are far enough into the enemy base to give you time to respawn while they are walking to your nexus. To reduce your travel time (and increase the travel time of your opponents), it is essential to take the opponent's inhibitor. When you have an advantage, don't kill the minions or even mega minions, and go and take the inhibitor before dying on the opponent's towers (or by doing maximum damage to the opponent champs and structures). At the end of a teamfight, choose your strategy: reset or not? If reset, run straight to do a maximum of damage (structures or champions) to the opponent before dying as fast as possible. If you want to stay alive for the next fight, don't put yourself in unnecessary danger to go along your minions: everyone is respawning, but the enemy team is much closer to you than your own team. You’ll end up being surprised by a [Mark] or a [Ghost] and die, getting out of sync and putting your team in serious danger of having to fight 5v4. If you have ace the opposing team, and you can't finish, I still advise you to reset by doing maximum damage to the towers or champions, because if you are a survivor of a teamfight you probably have some gold in your pocket that is worth spending. But don’t hesitate, time is precious.

CHAPTER 3 – ARAM mindset
3.1 – Death
Death is a part of life, especially in ARAM, but one must learn to die properly. The mentality to have is to consider that you are still alive until the end, even when you are doomed. The two skillshots you avoid at 75HP will make you live one second longer, which can be enough to make the difference for your teammates. On the other hand, it is important to know when you are doomed to die. In this case, you need to think about 1) inflicting as much damage as possible on champions and/or structures, and 2) buying as much time as possible for your team, especially at the end of the game. If you can choose, kite towards the opponent's base and not your own: the path to be covered for the opponents to come and attack your nexus after having killed you will be twice as long. Finally, and sometimes, you will be condemned because of a Mark projectile (see 3.3) that will have hit you (for example a Neeko). In this case, it is advisable to approach the opposing team and move away from your own team, so as not to condemn them too.
3.2 – Flash
This is an important mistake coming from the Rift that I see very often at medium elo and which consists in using [Flash] to save yourself from a certain death around 50HP: not only do you burn your [Flash], but you also become useless for the next fight because you have no HP left. Inhibit this reflex, and die with dignity by inflicting as much damage as possible (see 3.1). You will have your flash for the next fight where you will have 100% HP and where it will be decisive, either to engage or to replace yourself. Obviously, if it is a decisive teamfight, use your flash to reposition yourself, engage, finish off a wounded person, etc. An exception to this rule that is worth mentioning is when your death might trigger a potentially dangerous reset for your whole team: [R] from Pyke, [P] from Katarina or Master Yi, [W] from Tristana, [R] from Vex.
3.3 – Mark
The use of [Mark] is what turn an average player into a good ARAM player, and it is mandatory if you want to progress. [Mark] is a projectile (which can hit minions and does not stop anti-projectile spells like Yasuo), which will inflict raw damage and will give true vision on the target. If it hits, it can be reactivated to dash towards the target, inflicting raw damage while being untargetable on the way. The cooldown of [Mark] is substantial (45 seconds), and at high level it is advisable to wait for a CC or to aim at a minion to ensure its success as it is easily dodgeable. YOU SHOULD ALWAYS TRY TO AVOID AN OPPONENT'S MARK. If you are a tank, this may not seem like a big deal to you, but it can mean the death of your ADC: if you are Renekton and while playing Zed I put a mark on you, I can assure you that you will not have enough reaction/animation time to stun me before I [R] and kill your ADC. Needless to say, an Amumu or Kennen mark is particularly formidable, and you will have to sacrifice yourself in this case to avoid bringing a devastating engage on your team (see 3.1). If the primary use of the Mark is to allow melee champions to engage, it has many other uses:
- to reposition yourself by using [Mark] on a minion
- to force the opponent to reposition himself by throwing a mark in his direction
- to reveal invisible champions (Akali, Khazix, Twitch...)
- to throw fast combos. For example, with Lissandra you can hit [Mark], throw a claw [E] back, reactivate [Mark], throw [W] and [Q] then [E] to come back on your claw. With Zed, you can hit [Mark], throw your shadow [W] back, reactivate [Mark], throw [E] and [Q] and auto-attack, then use [W] to come back on your shadow. With Alistar, you can hit [Mark] reactivate, press [Q] to go behind your target, and [W] into your team. [Mark] can also be used to extend the range of a [Q] from Zoe.
- to avoid a skillshot (you can pass through Ashe's [R] during [Mark] reactivation, you won't be CC'd)
- to avoid damage (you can avoid Karthus' [R] by timing [Mark] correctly).
Remember that [Mark] has a big cooldown and allows invulnerability. For example, when playing Khazix, if I have to kill an Ezreal, I will first jump with [E] and land [Mark]. But Ezreal will dash away, and the enemy Braum will throw his [R] at me. At that moment, I reactivate [Mark]: this way, I end up on Ezreal without being CC. If I had done the opposite, that is to say first [Mark] and [Mark] on Ezreal and then the jump to follow his dash, I would probably have eaten Braum's CC during the jump and be stuck with a big mustache dude. Don’t spam [Mark], 45 seconds is a very long time in ARAM.
3.4 – Itemization
Itemization is very patch dependent, so I’d rather not cover it in too much details in this guide (in addition there are several new items when this guide is written). Of course, many builds are similar to those of the Rift. Keep in mind that there is no perfect build for a champion as it really depends on your team and the enemy team: you should think before buying. Just as runes, in ARAM I have a preference for item without cooldown: an Immortal Shieldbow might trigger because of some non-lethal poke damage that you would have healed through lifesteal, and yet it will not be available for the next big teamfight. Some champs have “ARAM specific” itemization, like AP Miss Fortune, AP Nasus, spam-arrows Ashe, full AP Kaisa, AP Shivanna. AP Maokai. These build are, in my opinion, most of the time trash tier, even if they can somehow work in the right composition. They are very popular especially at low elo because it is very easy to deal damage with them (you basically only have 1 button that you are spamming). But they wont win the game against a dive compo or a front-to-back compo, and I think they are boring to play (and to play gainst). A stacking tanky Nasus is so much more useful than a little shy dog using one [E] every 10 seconds for damage over time that will be healed up by lifesteal or shields. Of course, if you have no source of AP damage in a tank battle, you should consider building your Nasus with a Liandry and a Demonic Embrace. Other than that, builds that work very well on fightebruiser are sustain oriented with a Conqueror (Divine or Goredrinker, Death’s Dance, Ravenous Hydra, Spirit Visage…), while tank/offtank itemization are usually HP oriented with a Grasp (Heartsteel, Titanic, Sunfire, Demonic Embrace, Gargoyle…). Supports also have to think a lot about their itemization: are the fights going to last? Buy Moonstone. Is your team poking a lot? Buy Imperial Mandate. Do you want to hard engage or kite? Buy Shurelya. Do you need to survive huge burst? Buy Locket.
3.5 – Teamfights tactics
Except for what has been said earlier in this chapter about Death (3.1), Flash (3.2) and Mark (3.3), as well as in the previous chapter about the temporality of ARAM (2.5), the tactics of teamfights are very similar to those of the Rift. If you are not familiar with concepts such as kiting and peeling, it is essential to learn about them. You and your team must identify the primary targets in the opposing team (see 3.9), but also evaluate the strategy (front to back?). You have to identify the role of each of your teammates (as Lulu, is it better to save Talon who just used his whole combo or Vayne?), and don't hesitate to die for your team or to save a teammate (a Darius with a charged conqueror and a charged [P] will be much more interesting to keep alive than an Amumu who has already used his Aftershock and his [R]). Of course you have to evaluate your role: Engage? Follow up? Support? Let's imagine a more or less random composition Zac, Irelia, Lucian, Vlad, Jinx. It will obviously be Zac who starts the fight, followed closely by Irelia and Vlad, allowing Lucian and Nami to do damage without putting themselves in danger. The death order should coincide: first Zac, then Irelia and/or Vlad, and finally (if the teamfight is lost) Nami then Jinx. It would not be out of the ordinary, if the teamfight goes very badly, for a mage with waveclear like Anivia to decide to back off to defend. Learn from your mistakes, your role is not fixed during the game! A Renekton can be a very good engage in early, but may be more useful later to protect a Vayne with his W from an Ekko full AP who is after him. If a teamfight goes wrong for no apparent reason, analyze the situation and try to change.
3.6 – Sustain & anti-sustain.
Although it is impossible to heal yourself in ARAM from the base, there are several ways to heal yourself out of combat. The first one is obviously the green potion and the HP regeneration (the Warmog can be very useful against a poke composition, and not only on tanks). It is also possible to use spells like Nami and Sona's [W], items like Redemption, health relics (ping and wait for your teammates before taking them) and finally to use Lifesteal or Omnivamp on minions. If one of your teammates has lifesteal and is slow, let him attack those minions for God's sake! As for sustain in combat, it can quickly become problematic (a Vladimir, an Aatrox, a red Kayn...). You have to choose who will be the anti heal carrier(s), some are good carriers (Brand because he applies it for a while in AOE), other are bad carriers (Vayne, because she is a solo-target). Don't wait until the end of the game for this, many teamfights will be lost long before that and will lead to snowball. A very good solution is a support with Moonstone like Sona or Nami who carry the enchanter anti heal of Chemtech Putrifier. If you are playing ADC and one of the tanks has Brumble Vest, it may be relevant to think about not attacking him in important moments.
3.7 – Psychological domination
This is probably one of the most important points of ARAM and the one that irritates me the most: not trying to take the psychological advantage over the other team. If we have to remind it, ARAM is a terran game, one base on each side, the goal being to destroy it. Beyond pushing the waves of minions, it is therefore important to try to get ahead and not give up ground unnecessarily. An ARAM team should be like a Greek hoplite phallanx: everyone holds his rank and place, and if that rank and place crumbles, everyone is at risk. You will always be at a disadvantage in ARAM if you are running away or retreating (with a few exceptions for compositions based on counter-engage and kiting, but the retreat must be quick and only caused by the engage). If you are playing Sejuani, you don't have to retreat just because the Malphite in front of you has his [R] ready and seems to be moving towards your team. You have to stand firm against him, and also look for an opportunity to engage the other team. At low elo, I find myself ahead of all my teammates on almost all my champions even Draven or Nami, because the risk I take in doing so is less important than the benefit I get from the psychological ascendancy and the opportunity of dealing damage / landing CC. By playing passively to the rear, not only do you lose ground, but above all you close off any possibility of finding an opportunity, a window on the backline or a good [Mark] on a priority target. That's why I always advise having at least one or even two frontliners on a team, because if you only have distance champs, everyone is going to want to get behind everyone else, and you're going to play backwards all the time. Think of it as a Nunu [W] snowball. If everyone backs up, everyone gets it and the teamfight is over. If someone gets in front and decides to hold on, at least you'll be able to fight. Of course it is sometimes (often) necessary to use the tower to defend the line. But even in this case, everyone should be in their place looking for an opportunity, not 50 meters behind the tower waiting for it to fall. In short, it is necessary to find a middle ground of risk taking (3.8).
3.8 – Risk taking
ARAM is a delicate art of risk assessment. Should you reactivate this [Mark] to go finish off this Nami and get the First Blood? Only if you are sure you can get it before you die. Should you 5 men dive the opponent's composition under their turret in early game? Most likely not, unless you have a big advantage and no distance to attack the tower. Do you have to 3 men dive this Anivia alone under the tower? Most probably, because she can waveclear several waves by herself. The risk taking evolves differently depending on your composition and the pace of the game. If you have a late game combo (Vayne, Fiora, Kayle, Graves, Nasus, Jinx...) it is strongly advised not to take any risk to avoid being snowballed on early. If you have an early compo (Lee Sin, Renekton, Blitzcrank, Pyke...), it is rather advised to take risks to start a snowball. If you have the numerical superiority, it is strongly advised to take risks, and if you have the inferiority, not. A common cause of snowballing is that members of the dominated team will take risks to finish off injured players, even at 1 or 2 versus 5 players. This is a very common mistake, even at high levels, because everyone wants the gold for themselves. However, it tends to widen the gap because it often fails, or it takes several individual deaths to finish off a full team champion, increasing the gold difference and the possession of the field (and thus the gold reward of the tower). At the end of the game, if you are dominated in teamfight you have to take risks otherwise, for example when you see an isolated target a little bit unsynchronized. I have seen many games being stolen by a losing team because they were able to successfully reach (Flash + Mark) an isolated important target or engage a 2v4 before respawning.
3.9 – Focus
Three huge errors I see at low elo about focusing: I) no focus, ii) too much focus, iii) wrong focus. No focus is just splitting damage between all the enemis, which is why champions like Blitzcrank are really strong at low elo: they force all the team to focus the same enemy. Too much focus is trying too hard to focus the impossible to get ADC, for example an Ezreal protected by a Lulu. While you are trying to reach him, you are not dealing damage. Playing front to back is OK, you’ll get the Ezreal later with a good [Mark]. And finally, wrong focus usually comes when people are trying too hard to focus the ADC, because that’s what they have been taught in LoL. Actually, you want to focus the strongest threat that is accessible. Contrary to what you can read in all chat “focus the support much, eh??”, a Lulu, a Sona or a Nami are perfectly good target for primary focus: they are very strong in teamfights, they are squishy and they are immobile. A Zed diving into your backline is also a perfectly fine primary target. Another important thing is that at low elo, the level of players vary a lot in the same team. If I see a very good player on Fiora or Darius and an okayish Caitlyn, maybe I’d rather focus the good player. One tip is to look at who has the kills, because gold rewards from assists are usually 30-40gold, while a kill is 180+. Sometimes it is just better to focus the one with the gold or the good player rather than the ADC.
3.10 Role adaptation
In order to have a good composition, some champions can adapt their role. As mentioned in (3.4), Nasus can, for example, build AP if there are no other source of AP damage and there are some tanks that require a Liandry and a Demonic. Most of the time though damage is not the problem in ARAM, as damage dealer champions are very popular. What you will lack is utility and durability. At high-MMR ARAM, many Lux that you will see will be built and played as a support, buying Moonstone or Shurelya, Chemteck Putrifier and Redemption. This is because Lux damage are really nerfed, and most of the time an enchanter is more valuable than a low poke champ. Lee sin is another example, even though enchanter Lee Sin is harder to pull off. Annie can be a decent enchanteutility. Gragas might be a full AP source of damage, or an insanely strong tank and engager. Jarvan IV might be a violent assassin, a strong tank to engage and CC, or a durable fighter dealing damage. Lulu or Twisted Fate sometimes end up being ADC when there is no available ADC. Even champs like Yasuo, Tryndamere, Camille, Darius, Elise, Katarina, Lee Sin, Kassadin, Galio etc will sometimes end up being built full tank and playing the role. Remember: the whole is not a simple addition of its part.
submitted by Chicken_ARE_Birds to leagueoflegends [link] [comments]

How NOT to Succeed at Day Trading - A Definitive Guide

The Power of Inversion

Inversion is thinking of what you want to achieve but in reverse. Instead of focusing on future success, you focus on what leads to failure so you can make efforts to avoid it.
Charlie Munger, of Berkshire Hathaway, uses this technique for investing. In his words, he tries 'to be consistently not stupid, instead of trying to be very intelligent. It’s not brilliance. It’s just avoiding stupidity.'
Below is a comprehensive list of how not to succeed at day trading. As ridiculous as some of these points sound, every trader has been guilty of committing them at some point in their journey.

Unrealistic Timeline and Expectations

Lack of Education and Self-Development

Non-Existent Strategy and Edge

Irresponsible Account and Money Management

Absence of Risk Management

Poor Trade Execution and Trade Management

Lack of Emotional Regulation

Broken Psychology and Gambling Mindset

And there you have it. By meeting just a few of the above criteria, you too can set yourself up for failure. Feel free to comment additional items and I will update the post.
submitted by Cranky_Crypto to Daytrading [link] [comments]

Hyperinflation is Coming- The Dollar Endgame: PART 5.0- "Enter the Dragon" (FIRST HALF OF FINALE)

Hyperinflation is Coming- The Dollar Endgame: PART 5.0-
I am getting increasingly worried about the amount of warning signals that are flashing red for hyperinflation- I believe the process has already begun, as I will lay out in this paper. The first stages of hyperinflation begin slowly, and as this is an exponential process, most people will not grasp the true extent of it until it is too late. I know I’m going to gloss over a lot of stuff going over this, sorry about this but I need to fit it all into four posts without giving everyone a 400 page treatise on macro-economics to read. Counter-DDs and opinions welcome. This is going to be a lot longer than a normal DD, but I promise the pay-off is worth it, knowing the history is key to understanding where we are today.
SERIES (Parts 1-4) TL/DR: We are at the end of a MASSIVE debt supercycle. This 80-100 year pattern always ends in one of two scenarios- default/restructuring (deflation a la Great Depression) or inflation (hyperinflation in severe cases (a la Weimar Republic). The United States has been abusing it’s privilege as the World Reserve Currency holder to enforce its political and economic hegemony onto the Third World, specifically by creating massive artificial demand for treasuries/US Dollars, allowing the US to borrow extraordinary amounts of money at extremely low rates for decades, creating a Sword of Damocles that hangs over the global financial system.
The massive debt loads have been transferred worldwide, and sovereigns are starting to call our bluff. Governments papered over the 2008 financial crisis with debt, but never fixed the underlying issues, ensuring that the crisis would return, but with greater ferocity next time. Systemic risk (from derivatives) within the US financial system has built up to the point that collapse is all but inevitable, and the Federal Reserve has demonstrated it will do whatever it takes to defend legacy finance (banks, brokedealers, etc) and government solvency, even at the expense of everything else (The US Dollar).
I’ll break this down into four parts. ALL of this is interconnected, so please read these in order:

Updated Complete Table of Contents:

“Enter the Dragon”

The Inflation Dragon

PART 5.0 “The Monster & the Simulacrum”

“In the 1985 work “Simulacra and Simulation” French philosopher Jean Baudrillard recalls the Borges fable about the cartographers of a great Empire who drew a map of its territories so detailed it was as vast as the Empire itself.
According to Baudrillard as the actual Empire collapses the inhabitants begin to live their lives within the abstraction believing the map to be real (his work inspired the classic film "The Matrix" and the book is prominently displayed in one scene).
The map is accepted as truth and people ignorantly live within a mechanism of their own design and the reality of the Empire is forgotten. This fable is a fitting allegory for our modern financial markets.
Our fiscal well being is now prisoner to financial and monetary engineering of our own design. Central banking strategy does not hide this fact with the goal of creating the optional illusion of economic prosperity through artificially higher asset prices to stimulate the real economy.
While it may be natural to conclude that the real economy is slave to the shadow banking system this is not a correct interpretation of the Baudrillard philosophy-
The higher concept is that our economy IS the shadow banking system… the Empire is gone and we are living ignorantly within the abstraction. The Fed must support the shadow banking oligarchy because without it, the abstraction would fail.” (Artemis Capital)

The Inflation Serpent

To most citizens living in the West, the concept of a collapsing fiat currency seems alien, unfathomable even. They regard it as an unfortunate event reserved only for those wretched souls unlucky enough to reside in third world countries or under brutal dictatorships.
Monetary mismanagement was seen to be a symptom only of the most corrupt countries like Venezuela- those where the elites gained control of the Treasury and printing press and used this lever to steal unimaginable wealth while impoverishing their constituents.
However, the annals of history spin a different tale- in fact, an eventual collapse of fiat currency is the norm, not the exception.
In a study of 775 fiat currencies created over the last 500 years, researchers found that approximately 599 have failed, leaving only 176 remaining in circulation. Approximately 20% of the 775 fiat currencies examined failed due to hyperinflation, 21% were destroyed in war, and 24% percent were reformed through centralized monetary policy. The remainder were either phased out, converted into another currency, or are still around today.
The average lifespan for a pure fiat currency is only 27 years- significantly shorter than a human life.
Double-digit inflation, once deemed an “impossible” event for the United States, is now within a stone’s throw. Powell, desperate to maintain credibility, has embarked on the most aggressive hiking schedule the Fed has ever undertaken. The cracks are starting to widen in the system.
One has to look no further than a simple graph of the M2 Money Supply, a measure that most economists agree best estimates the total money supply of the United States, to see a worrying trend:

M2 Money Supply
The trend is exponential. Through recessions, wars, presidential elections, cultural shifts, and even the Internet age- M2 keeps increasing non-linearly, with a positive second derivative- money supply growth is accelerating.
This hyperbolic growth is indicative of a key underlying feature of the fiat money system: virtually all money is credit. Under a fractional reserve banking system, most money that circulates is loaned into existence, and doesn't exist as real cash- in fact, around 97% of all “money” counted within the banking system is debt, in one form or another. (See Dollar Endgame Part 3)
Debt virtually always has a yield- that yield is called interest, and that interest demands payment. Thus, any fiat money banking system MUST grow money supply at a compounding interest rate, forever, in order to remain stable.
Debt defaulting is thus quite literally the destruction of money- which is why the deflation is widespread, and also why M2 Money Supply shrank by 30% during the Great Depression.

Interest in Fractional Reserve Fiat Systems
This process repeats ad infinitum, perpetually compounding loan creation and thus money supply, in order to prevent systemic defaults. The system is BUILT for constant inflation.
In the last 50 years, only about 12 quarters have seen reductions in commercial bank credit. That’s less than 5% of the time. The other 95% has seen increases, per data from the St. Louis Fed.

Commercial Bank Credit
Even without accounting for debt crises, wars, and government defaults, money supply must therefore grow exponentially forever- solely in order to keep the wheels on the bus.
The question is where that money supply goes- and herein lies the key to hyperinflation.

In the aftermath of 2008, the Fed and Treasury worked together to purchase billions of dollars of troubled assets, mortgage backed securities, and Treasury bonds- all in a bid to halt the vicious deleveraging cycle that had frozen credit markets and already sunk two large investment banks.
These programs were the most widespread and ambitious ever- and resulted in trillions of dollars of new money flowing into the financial system. Libertarian candidates and gold bugs such as Peter Schiff, who had rightly forecasted the Great Financial Crisis, now began to call for hyperinflation.
The trillions of printed money, he claimed, would create massive inflation that the government would not be able to tame. U.S. debt would be downgraded and sold, and with the Fed coming to the rescue with trillions more of QE, extreme money supply increases would ensue. An exponential growth curve in inflation was right around the corner.
Gold prices rallied hard, moving from $855 at the start of 2008 to a record high of $1,970 by the end of 2011. The end of the world was upon us, many decried. Occupy Wall Street came out in force.
However, to his great surprise, nothing happened. Inflation remained incredibly tame, and gold retreated from its euphoric highs. Armageddon was averted, or so it seemed.
The issue that was not understood well at the time was that there existed two economies- the financial and the real. The Fed had pumped trillions into the financial economy, and with a global macroeconomic downturn plus foreign central banks buying Treasuries via dollar recycling, all this new money wasn’t entering the real economy.

Financial vs Real Economy
Instead, it was trapped, circulating in the hands of money market funds, equities traders, bond investors and hedge funds. The S&P 500, which had hit a record low in March of 2009, began a steady rally that would prove to be the strongest and most pronounced bull market in history.
The Fed in the end did achieve extreme inflation- but only in assets.
Without the Treasury incurring significant fiscal deficits this money did not flow out into the markets for goods and services but instead almost exclusively into equity and bond markets.

QE Stimulus of financial assets
The great inflationary catastrophe touted by the libertarians and the gold bugs alike never came to pass- their doomsday predictions appeared frenetic, neurotic.
Instead of re-evaluating their arguments under this new framework, the neo-Keynesians, who held the key positions of power with Treasury, the Federal Reserve, and most American Universities (including my own) dismissed their ideas as economic drivel.
The Fed had succeeded in averting disaster- or so they claimed. Bernanke, in all his infinite wisdom, had unleashed the “Wealth Effect”- a crucial behavioral economic theory suggesting that people spend more as the value of their assets rise.
An even more extreme school of thought emerged- the Modern Monetary Theorists%20is,Federal%20Reserve%20Bank%20of%20Richmond.)- who claimed that Central Banks had essentially discovered a ‘perpetual motion machine’- a tool for unlimited economic growth as a result of zero bound interest rates and infinite QE.
The government could borrow money indefinitely, and traditional metrics like Debt/GDP no longer mattered. Since each respective government could print money in their own currency- they could never default.
The bill would never be paid.
Or so they thought.

The American Reckoning

This theory helped justify massive US government borrowing and spending- from Afghanistan, to the War on Drugs, to Entitlement Programs, the Treasury indulged in fiscal largesse never before seen in our nation’s history.

America's Finances
The debt continued to accumulate and compound. With rates pegged at the zero bound, the Treasury could justify rolling the debt continually as the interest costs were minimal.
Politicians now pushed for more and more deficit spending- if it's free to bailout the banks, or start a war- why not build more bridges? What about social programs? New Army bases? Tax cuts for corporations? Subsidies for businesses?
There was no longer any “accepted” economic argument against this- and thus government spending grew and grew, and the deficits continued to expand year after year.
The Treasury would roll the debt by issuing new bonds to pay off maturing ones- a strategy reminiscent of Ponzi schemes.
This debt binge is accelerating- as spending increases, (and tax revenues are constant) the deficit grows, and this deficit is paid by more borrowing. This incurs more interest, and thus more spending to pay that interest, in a deadly feedback loop- what is called a debt spiral.

Gross Govt Interest Payments
The shadow threat here that is rarely discussed is Unfunded Liabilities- these are payments the Federal government has promised to make, but has not yet set aside the money for. This includes Social Security, Medicaid, Medicare, Veteran’s benefits, and other funding that is non-discretionary, or in other words, basically non-optional.
Cato Institute estimates that these obligations sum up to $163 Trillion. Other estimates from the Mercatus Center put the figure at between $87T as the lower bound and $222T on the high end.
YES. That is TRILLION with a T.
A Dragon lurks in these shadows.

Unfunded Liabilities
What makes it worse is that these figures are from 2012- the problem is significantly worse now. The fact of the matter is, no one knows the exact figure- just that it is so large it defies comprehension.
These payments are what is called non-discretionary, or mandatory spending- each Federal agency is obligated to spend the money. They don’t have a choice.
Approximately 70% of all Federal Spending is mandatory.
And the amount of mandatory spending is increasing each year as the Boomers, the second largest generation in US history, retire. Approximately 10,000 of them retire each day- increasing the deficits by hundreds of billions a year.
Furthermore, the only way to cut these programs (via a bill introduced in the House and passed in the Senate) is basically political suicide. AARP and other senior groups are some of the most powerful and wealthy lobbying groups in the US.
If politicians don’t have the stomach to legalize marijuana- an issue that Pew research finds an overwhelming majority of Americans supporting- then why would they nuke their own careers via cutting funding to seniors right as inflation spikes?
Thus, although these obligations are not technically debt, they act as debt instruments in all other respects. The bill must be paid.
In the Fiscal Report for 2022 released by the White House, they estimated that in 2021 and 2022 the Federal deficits would be $3.669T and $1.837T respectively. This amounts to 16.7% and 7.8% of GDP (pg 42).

US Federal Budget
Astonishingly, they project substantially decreasing deficits for the next decade. Meanwhile the U.S. is slowly grinding towards a severe recession (and then likely depression) as the Fed begins their tightening experiment into 132% Federal Debt to GDP.
Deficits have basically never gone down in a recession, only up- unemployment insurance, food stamp programs, government initiatives; all drive the Treasury to pump out more money into the economy in order to stimulate demand and dampen any deflation.
To add insult to injury, tax receipts collapse during recession- so the income side of the equation is negatively impacted as well. The budget will blow out.
The U.S. 1 yr Treasury Bond is already trading at 4.7%- if we have to refinance our current debt loads at that rate (which we WILL since they have to roll the debt over), the Treasury will be paying $1.46 Trillion in INTEREST ALONE YEARLY on the debt.
That is equivalent to 40% of all Federal Tax receipts in 2021!

In my post Dollar Endgame 4.2, I have tried to make the case that the United States is headed towards an “event horizon”- a point of no return, where the financial gravity of the supermassive debt is so crushing that nothing they do, short of Infinite QE, will allow us to escape.
The terrifying truth is that we are not headed towards this event horizon.
We’re already past it.

True Interest Expense ABOVE Tax Receipts
As brilliant macro analyst Luke Gromen pointed out in several interviews late last year, if you combine Gross Interest Expense and Entitlements, on a base case, we are already at 110% of tax receipts.
True Interest Expense is now more than total Federal Income. The Federal Government is already bankrupt- the market just doesn't know it yet.

Luke Gromen Interview Transcript (Oct 2021, Macrovoices)

The black hole of debt, financed by the Federal Reserve, has now trapped the largest spending institution in the world- the United States Treasury.
The unholy capture of the Money Printer and the Spender is catastrophic - the final key ingredient for monetary collapse.
This is How Money Dies.

The Underwater State

(I had to split this post into two part due to reddit's limits, see the second half of the post HERE)

Nothing on this Post constitutes investment advice, performance data or any recommendation that any security, portfolio of securities, investment product, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. From reading my Post I cannot assess anything about your personal circumstances, your finances, or your goals and objectives, all of which are unique to you, so any opinions or information contained on this Post are just that – an opinion or information. Please consult a financial professional if you seek advice.
*If you would like to learn more, check out my recommended reading list here. This is a dummy google account, so feel free to share with friends- none of my personal information is attached. You can also check out a Google docs version of my Endgame Series here.
I cleared this message with the mods;
IF YOU WOULD LIKE to support me, you can do so my checking out the e-book version of the Dollar Endgame on my twitter profile:
The paperback version is a work in progress. It's coming.

THERE IS NO PRESSURE TO DO SO. THIS IS NOT A MONEY GRAB- the entire series is FREE! The reddit posts start HERE:
and there is a Google Doc version of the ENTIRE SERIES here:

You can follow my Twitter at Peruvian Bull. This is my only account, and I will not ask for financial or personal information. All others are scammers/impersonators.

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Jingle Jam 2022 - Schedule and Links!

Jingle Jam 2022

Seasons greetings! The Jingle Jam is back for a 12th year with your favourite streams and the biggest and best rewards we’ve ever had! Over the last 11 years, you guys have raised over $25 million for charities across the world. It’s made an incredible difference to so many lives and we’re really proud and grateful to be doing it again. You can support some brilliant causes and unlock some amazing games at the link below!
Donation page:
Yogscast stream link:
Yogscast stream schedule: Week 1:
Week 2: coming soon!
Yogs Live VODs (these will be a few days behind):
New this year!
Key information for 2022:

Games list:

Game Publisher RRP$ Steam rating Release Date 3 word description Steam link
Age of Wonders: Planetfall Paradox 49.99 9/10 6 Aug, 2019 Beautiful Sci-Fi 4X Steam
PlateUp! It's happening / Yogscast Games 17.99 10/10 4 Aug, 2022 Brilliant Cooking Chaos Steam
You Suck At Parking Happy Volcano 19.99 9/10 14 Sep, 2022 Party Racing Fun Steam
Here Comes Niko! Gears for Breakfast 24.99 9/10 3 Aug, 2021 Cute Cozy Platforming Steam
A Total War Saga: TROY Creative Assembly 49.99 7/10 2 Sep, 2021 Swords Sandals Slaughter Steam
First Class Trouble Invisible Walls / Versus Evil 14.99 7/10 1 Nov, 2021 Cruise Ship Among Us Steam
Lost Nova HopFrog 14.99 9/10 11 May, 2022 Explore Build Craft Steam
Factory Town Erik Asmussen 19.99 9/10 17 Nov, 2021 Automate Your Town Steam
Imagine Earth Serious Bros. 24.99 7/10 25 May, 2021 Planetary Colonization Steam
ConnecTank YummyYummyTummy 29.99 N/A 28 Sep, 2021 Coop Conveyer Battles Steam
Final Vendetta Numbskull Games 24.99 9/10 17 Jun, 2022 Side Scrolling Brawler Steam
Bonfire Peaks Draknek 19.99 9/10 30 Sep, 2021 Atmospheric Burning Puzzles Steam
Kaiju Wars Michael Long, Foolish Mortals Games 19.99 9/10 28 Apr, 2022 Monster Mashing Tactics Steam
Kitaria Fables PQube 19.99 7/10 2 Sep, 2021 ARPG with Farming Steam
Tenderfoot Tactics Ice Water Games 24.99 9/10 21 Oct, 2020 Lovely Lowpoly Tactics Steam
Warhammer 40,000: Gladius - Relics of War Slitherine Ltd 39.99 9/10 12 Jul, 2018 Grand Strategy Warhammer Steam
Space Crew Curve Digital 24.99 7/10 15 Oct, 2020 Space Management Adventure Steam
Vibrant Venture Semag Games 14.99 9/10 24 Jul, 2020 Cute Platforming Action Steam
Aeronautica Imperialis: Flight Command Green Man Gaming Publishing 24.99 6/10 28 May, 2020 Turn-based Top Gun Steam
Men of War: Assault Squad 2 Fulqrum Publishing 29.99 9/10 15 May, 2014 Tanks Troops Tactics Steam
CryoFall AtomicTorch Studio / Daedalic Entertainment 19.99 9/10 29 Apr, 2021 Sci-fi Multiplayer Survival Steam
Orbi Universo Orbi Universo Team 19.99 7/10 10 Jan, 2020 Abstract Civ Strategy Steam
Fury Unleashed Awesome Games Studio 19.99 9/10 8 May, 2020 Frantic Roguelike Shooter Steam
Driftland: The Magic Revival Star Drifters 19.99 7/10 18 Apr, 2019 Floating Wizards 4X Steam
WARSAW Retrovibe 23.99 7/10 2 Oct, 2019 Stylish WW2 Tactics Steam
Swords 'n Magic and Stuff EA Kindred Games 19.99 9/10 8 Sep, 2020 Cute Multiplayer RPG Steam
DESOLATE HYPETRAIN DIGITAL 24.99 6/10 17 Jan, 2019 Coop Zombie Survival Steam
The Turing Test Bulkhead 19.99 9/10 30 Aug, 2016 Sci-Fi Puzzle Mystery Steam
Lucifer Within Us Kitfox Games 19.99 7/10 15 Oct, 2020 Intricate Demonic Detective Steam
Epic Battle Fantasy 5 Matt Roszak 19.99 10/10 30 Nov, 2018 Tongue-in-cheek JRPG Steam
Mech Mechanic Sim Polyslash 19.99 6/10 25 Mar, 2021 Build-a-mech workshop Steam
Aporia: Beyond The Valley Green Man Gaming Publishing 16.99 9/10 19 Jul, 2017 Stunning Story Puzzler Steam
Pendragon inkle 16.99 6/10 22 Sep, 2020 Mythic Tactical Narrative Steam
The Galactic Junkers Green Man Gaming Publishing 16.99 N/A 30 Jun, 2022 Comedic space adventures Steam
Little Inferno Tomorrow Corporation 14.99 10/10 19 Nov, 2012 Burn Your Toys Steam
Plague Inc: Evolved Ndemic Creations 14.99 9/10 18 Feb, 2016 End The World Steam
Ancient Enemy Grey Alien Games 14.99 9/10 9 Apr, 2020 Modern Fantasy Solitaire Steam
Moon Hunters Kitfox Games 14.99 9/10 10 Mar, 2016 Tiny DnD Adventures Steam
Tanuki Sunset Rewind Games 14.99 9/10 4 Dec, 2020 Skateboarding Racoons Steam
Geneshift EA Nik Nak Studios 14.99 9/10 23 May, 2017 Cars Guns Action Steam
Turnip Boy Commits Tax Evasion Graffiti Games 14.99 10/10 22 Apr, 2021 Vegetable Crime Sim Steam
Zombie Rollerz: Pinball Heroes Zing Games Inc. / Daedalic Entertainment 14.99 9/10 2 Mar, 2022 Pinball Zombie Madness Steam
Mad Experiments: Escape Room PlayTogether Studio 14.99 7/10 16 Apr, 2020 Mind-bending Escape Room Steam
JARS Mousetrap Games / Daedalic Entertainment 11.99 8/10 20 Oct, 2021 Creepy Puzzles Steam
The Dungeon Beneath Puzzle Box Games 14.99 9/10 23 Oct, 2020 Roguelike Dungeon Battler Steam
The Hex Daniel Mullins Games 9.99 9/10 16 Oct, 2018 Creepy Pixel Murder Steam
Chroma Squad Behold Studios 14.99 10/10 30 Apr, 2015 Power Ranger Manager Steam
Paradise Lost All in! Games 14.99 7/10 24 Mar, 2021 Postapocalyptic Adventure Steam
Dude, Stop Team HalfBeard 14.99 9/10 1 Jun, 2018 Be Annoying Steam
Dark Nights with Poe and Munro D'Avekki Studios Ltd 12.99 7/10 19 May, 2020 Supernatural FMV Strangeness Steam
ΔV: Rings of Saturn Kodera Software 9.99 10/10 12 Aug, 2019 Realistic Space Mining Steam
Ato Tiny Warrior Games 14.99 9/10 8 May, 2020 Cat Samurai Adventure Steam
Wunderling DX Bitwave Games 14.99 9/10 5 Mar, 2020 Retro Puzzle Platforming Steam
Primal Light Fat Gem 14.99 9/10 9 Jul, 2020 16bit Boss Battler Steam
Big Crown Showdown Hyper Luminal Games Ltd / Fireshine Games 12.99 N/A 14 Dec, 2018 Big Crown Showdown Steam
Seals of the Bygone EA rologfos 12.99 9/10 13 Mar, 2020 Roguelike Dungeon Delver Steam
Viscera Cleanup Detail RuneStorm Games 12.99 9/10 23 Oct, 2015 Horror Aftermath Cleaning Steam
Maiden and Spell mino_dev LLC 12.99 9/10 25 Feb, 2020 Flying Magic Bullet-hell Steam
Eternal Hope Kwalee Ltd 11.99 9/10 20 Aug, 2020 Cinematic Puzzle Platformer Steam
Paperball Cliax Games 11.99 9/10 27 Mar, 2020 Stunt Ball Racing Steam
Absolute Drift Funselektor Labs Inc. 11.99 9/10 29 Jul, 2015 Chill Drifting Steam
CHUCHEL Amanita Design 9.99 9/10 7 Mar, 2018 Comedy Mushroom Adventure Steam
Fit For a King Kitfox Games 9.99 8/10 5 Sep, 2019 Marry Divorce Execute Steam
House Bark Bark Games 9.99 9/10 30 Oct, 2020 Spooky Pixel House Steam
Chaos Reborn Snapshot games 9.99 7/10 26 Oct, 2015 Tactical Wizard Wars Steam
Danger Scavengers Star Drifters 9.99 7/10 25 Mar, 2021 Cyberpunk Rooftop Romp Steam
Idle Champions - Prismeer Sentry Skin & Feat Pack Codename Entertainment 9.99 N/A 23 Mar, 2022 Buff Your Champion Steam
Idle Champions - Polymorphed Shandie Skin & Feat Pack Codename Entertainment 9.99 N/A 31 Aug, 2022 Buff Your Champion Steam
Crazy Machines 3 Fakt Software / Daedalic Entertainment 9.99 9/10 18 Oct, 2016 Wacky Physics Sandbox Steam
Deponia Daedalic Entertainment 29.99 9/10 8 Jul, 2014 Iconic Point-and-Click Steam
Demolish & Build 2018 PlayWay 9.99 7/10 8 Mar, 2018 Knock Stuff Over Steam
Chronicon Subworld 13.99 10/10 21 Aug, 2020 Live Loot Level-Up Steam
Uligo: A Slime's Hike Nôrdika Studio 8.99 N/A 13 May, 2022 Precision platforming, precisely Steam
Discolored Godbey Games 7.99 9/10 11 Nov, 2019 Perform Pigment Puzzles Steam
Concrete Jungle Colepowered Games / Fireshine Games 6.99 9/10 23 Sep, 2015 Classic City Builder Steam
City Climber Ondrej Angelovic 6.99 7/10 24 Feb, 2017 Ragdoll Climbing Fun Steam
KILLRUN Bulkhead 4.99 6/10 25 Aug, 2022 Run Gun Parkour! Steam
Sunlight Krillbite Studio 3.99 9/10 14 Jan, 2021 Chilled, wholesome trees Steam
Chatventures Sokpop Collective 2.99 9/10 14 Feb, 2020 Popping Micro-games Steam
King Pins Sokpop Collective 2.99 9/10 24 Oct, 2020 Popping Micro-games Steam
Pyramida Sokpop Collective 2.99 9/10 3 Aug, 2020 Popping Micro-games Steam
Pocket Watch Sokpop Collective 2.99 9/10 25 Dec, 2020 Popping Micro-games Steam
Flipper Volcano Sokpop Collective 2.99 8/10 31 Aug, 2020 Popping Micro-games Steam
Sok-worlds Sokpop Collective 2.99 8/10 21 Feb, 2020 Popping Micro-games Steam
Popo's Tower Sokpop Collective 2.99 7/10 25 May, 2020 Popping Micro-games Steam
Hellblusser Sokpop Collective 2.99 8/10 10 Aug, 2021 Popping Micro-games Steam


This year you can support these charities:

Notes and FAQ:

What’s different this year?

How do I receive my games for Jingle Jam?

Why are you doing this?

Can I donate to you guys as normal?

What's happening with money from subscriptions/adverts on

How can I best support my favourite streamers?

What’s the deal with Displate?

submitted by LewisXephos to Yogscast [link] [comments]

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