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 | As the Fed begins their journey into a deflationary blizzard, they are beginning to break markets across the globe. As the World Reserve Currency, over 60% of all international trade is done in Dollars, and USDs are the largest Foreign Exchange (Forex) holdings by far for global central banks. Now all foreign currencies are crashing against the Dollar as the vicious feedback loops of Triffin’s Dilemma come home to roost. The Dollar Milkshake has begun. submitted by peruvian_bull to Superstonk [link] [comments] The Fed, knowingly or unknowingly, has walked into this trap- and now they find themselves caught underneath the Sword of Damocles, with no way out… Sword Of Damocles -------------------------- “The famed “sword of Damocles” dates back to an ancient moral parable popularized by the Roman philosopher Cicero in his 45 B.C. book “Tusculan Disputations.” Cicero’s version of the tale centers on Dionysius II, a tyrannical king who once ruled over the Sicilian city of Syracuse during the fourth and fifth centuries B.C. Though rich and powerful, Dionysius was supremely unhappy. His iron-fisted rule had made him many enemies, and he was tormented by fears of assassination—so much so that he slept in a bedchamber surrounded by a moat and only trusted his daughters to shave his beard with a razor. As Cicero tells it, the king’s dissatisfaction came to a head one day after a court flatterer named Damocles showered him with compliments and remarked how blissful his life must be. “Since this life delights you,” an annoyed Dionysius replied, “do you wish to taste it yourself and make a trial of my good fortune?” When Damocles agreed, Dionysius seated him on a golden couch and ordered a host of servants wait on him. He was treated to succulent cuts of meat and lavished with scented perfumes and ointments. Damocles couldn’t believe his luck, but just as he was starting to enjoy the life of a king, he noticed that Dionysius had also hung a razor-sharp sword from the ceiling. It was positioned over Damocles’ head, suspended only by a single strand of horsehair. From then on, the courtier’s fear for his life made it impossible for him to savor the opulence of the feast or enjoy the servants. After casting several nervous glances at the blade dangling above him, he asked to be excused, saying he no longer wished to be so fortunate.” —--------------- Damocles’ story is a cautionary tale of being careful of what you wish for- Those who strive for power often unknowingly create the very systems that lead to their own eventual downfall. The Sword is often used as a metaphor for a looming danger; a hidden trap that can obliterate those unaware of the great risk that hegemony brings. Heavy lies the head which wears the crown. There are several Swords of Damocles hanging over the world today, but the one least understood and least believed until now is Triffin’s Dilemma, which lays the bedrock for the Dollar Milkshake Theory. I’ve already written extensively about Triffin’s Dilemma around a year ago in Part 1.5 and Part 4.3 of my Dollar Endgame Series, but let’s recap again. Here’s a great summary- read both sides of the dilemma: Triffin's Dilemma Summarized (Seriously, stop here and go back and read Part 1.5 and Part 4.3 Do it!)Essentially, Triffin noted that there was a fundamental flaw in the system: by virtue of the fact that the United States is a World Reserve Currency holder, the global financial system has built in GLOBAL demand for Dollars. No other fiat currency has this. How is this demand remedied? With supply of course! The United States thus is forced to run current account deficits - meaning it must send more dollars out into the world than it receives on a net basis. This has several implications, which again, I already outlined- but I will list in summary format below:
Dollar Recycling Essentially, they print their own currency to buy Dollars. Wanting to earn interest on this massive cash hoard when it isn’t being used, they buy Treasuries and other US debt securities to get a yield. As their domestic economy grows, their need and dependence on the Dollar grows as well. Their Central Bank builds up larger and larger hoards of Treasuries and Dollars. The entire thesis is that during times of crisis, they can sell the Treasuries for USD, and use the USDs to buy back their own currency on the market- supporting its value and therefore defending the peg. This buying pressure on USDs and Treasuries confers a massive benefit to the United States- The Exorbitant Privilege This buildup of excess dollars ends up circulating overseas in banks, trade brokers, central banks, governments and companies. These overseas dollars are called the Eurodollar system- a 2016 research paper estimated the size to be around $13.8 Trillion USD. This system is not under official Federal Reserve jurisdiction so it is difficult to get accurate numbers on its size. https://preview.redd.it/92wcmhdb0uq91.png?width=691&format=png&auto=webp&s=20dbaf63f75ff6f2e255fff06e6f48c03170b11b This means the Dollar is always artificially stronger than it should be- and during financial calamity, the dollar is a safe haven as there are guaranteed bidders. All this dollar denominated debt paired with the global need for dollars in trade creates strong and persistent dollar demand. Demand that MUST be satisfied. This creates systemic risk on a worldwide scale- an unforeseen Sword of Damocles that hangs above the global financial system. I’ve been trying to foreshadow this in my Dollar Endgame Series. Triffin’s Dilemma is the basis for the Dollar Milkshake Theory posited by Brent Johnson. The Dollar MilkshakeMilkshake of Liquidity In 2021, Brent worked with RealVision to create a short summary of his thesis- the video can be found here. I should note that Brent has had this theory for years, dating back to 2018, when he first came on podcasts and interviews and laid out his theory (like this video, for example). Here’s the summary below: ----- “A giant milkshake of liquidity has been created by global central banks with the dollar as its key ingredient - but if the dollar moves higher this milkshake will be sucked into the US creating a vicious spiral that could quickly destabilize financial markets. The US dollar is the bedrock of the world's financial system. It greases the wheels of global commerce and exchange- the availability of dollars, cost of dollars, and the level of the dollar itself each can have an outsized impact on economies and investment opportunities. But more important than the absolute level or availability of dollars is the rate of change in the level of the dollar. If the level of the dollar moves too quickly and particularly if the level rises too fast then problems start popping up all over the place (foreign countries begin defaulting). Today however many people are convinced that both the role of the Dollar is diminishing and the level of the dollar will only decline. People think that the US is printing so many dollars that the world will be awash with the greenback causing the value of the dollar to fall. Now it's true that the US is printing a lot of dollars – but other countries are also printing their own currencies in similar amounts so in theory it should even out in terms of value. But the hidden issue is the difference in demand. Remember the global financial system is built on the US dollar which means even if they don't want them everybody still needs them and if you need something you don't really have much choice. (See DXY Index): DXY Index Although many countries like China are trying to reduce their reliance on dollar transactions this will be a very slow transition. In the meantime the risks of a currency or sovereign debt crisis continue to rise. But now countries like China and Japan need dollars to buy copper from Australia so the Chinese and the Japanese owe dollars and Australia is getting paid in dollars. Europe and Asia currently doing very limited amount of non-dollar transactions for oil so they still need dollars to buy oil from saudi and again dollars get hoovered up on both sides Asia and Europe need dollars to buy soybeans from Brazil. This pulls in yet more dollars - everybody needs dollars for trade invoices, central bank currency reserves and servicing massive cross-border dollar denominated debts of governments and corporations outside the USA. And the dollar-denominated debt is key- if they don't service their debts or walk away from their dollar debts their funding costs rise putting great financial pressure on their domestic economies. Not only that, it can lead to a credit contraction and a rapid tightening of dollar supply. The US is happy with the reliance on the greenback they own the settlement system which benefits the US banks who process all the dollars and act as gatekeepers to the Dollar system they police and control the access to the system which benefits the US military machine where defense spending is in excess of any other country so naturally the US benefits from the massive volumes of dollar usage. https://preview.redd.it/yq1f1anq0uq91.png?width=1140&format=png&auto=webp&s=27447e2acec884848a5c70ab3651820e487fc0f3 Other countries have naturally been grumbling about being held hostage to the situation but the choices are limited. What it does mean is that dollars need to be constantly sucked out of the USA because other countries all over the world need them to do business and of course the more people there are who need and want those dollars the more is the pressure on the price of dollars to go up. In fact, global demand is so high that the supply of dollars is just not enough to keep up, even with the US continually printing money. This is why we haven't seen consistently rising US inflation despite so many QE and stimulus programs since the global financial crisis in 2008. But, the real risk comes when other economies start to slow down or when the US starts to grow relative to the other economies. If there is relatively less economic activity elsewhere in the world then there are fewer dollars in global circulation for others to use in their daily business and of course if there are fewer in circulation then the price goes up as people chase that dwindling source of dollars. Which is terrible for countries that are slowing down because just when they are suffering economically they still need to pay for many goods in dollars and they still need to service their debts which of course are often in dollars too. So the vortex begins or as we like to say the dollar milkshake- As the level of the dollar rises the rest of the world needs to print more and more of its own currency to then convert to dollars to pay for goods and to service its dollar debt this means the dollar just keeps on rising in response many countries will be forced to devalue their own currencies so of course the dollar rises again and this puts a huge strain on the global system. (see the charts below:) JPY/USD GBP/USD EUUSD To make matters worse in this environment the US looks like an attractive safe haven so the US ends up sucking in the capital from the rest of the world-the dollar rises again. Pretty soon you have a full-scale sovereign bond and currency crisis. https://preview.redd.it/72nlain01uq91.png?width=1141&format=png&auto=webp&s=cbaa411acc88acb3849949d84a36624d75d6cfc4 We're now into that final napalm run that sees the dollar and dollar assets accelerate even higher and this completely undermines global markets. Central banks try to prevent disorderly moves, but the global markets are bigger and the momentum unstoppable once it takes hold. And that is the risk that very few people see coming but that everyone should have a hedge against - when the US sucks up the dollar milkshake, bad things are going to happen. Worst of all there's no alternatives- what are you going to use-- Chinese Yuan? Japanese Yen? the Euro?? Now, like it or not we're stuck with a dollar underpinning the global financial system.” —------------- Why is it playing out now, in real time?? It all leads back to a tweet I made in a thread on September 16th. Tweet Thread about the Yuan The Fed, rushing to avoid a financial crisis in March 2020, printed trillions. This spurred inflation, which they then swore to fight. Thus they began hiking interest rates on March 16th, and began Quantitative Tightening this summer. QE had stopped- No new dollars were flowing out into a system which has a constant demand for them. Worse yet, they were hiking completely blind- Although the Fed is very far behind the curve, (meaning they are hiking far too late to really combat inflation)- other countries are even farther behind! Japan has rates currently at 0.00- 0.25%, and the Eurozone is at 1.25%. These central banks have barely begun hiking, and some even swear to keep them at the zero-bound. By hiking domestic interest rates above foreign ones, the Fed is incentivizing what are called carry trades. Since there is a spread between the Yen and the Dollar in terms of interest rates, it thus is profitable for traders to borrow in Yen (shorting it essentially) and buy Dollars, which can earn 2.25% interest. The spread would be around 2%. DXY rises, and the Yen falls, in a vicious feedback loop. Thus capital flows out of Japan, and into the US. The US sucks up the Dollar Milkshake, draining global liquidity. As I’ve stated before, this has seriously dangerous implications for the global financial system. For those of you who don’t believe this could be foreseen, check out the ending paragraphs of Dollar Endgame Part 4.3 - “Economic Warfare and the End of Bretton Woods” published February 16, 2022: Triffin's Dilemma is the Final Nail What I’ve been attempting to do in my work is restate Triffins’ Dilemma, and by extension the Dollar Milkshake, in other terms- to come at the issue from different angles. Currently the Fed is not printing money. Which is thus causing havoc in global trade (seen in the currency markets) because not enough dollars are flowing out to satisfy demand. The Fed must therefore restart QE unless it wants to spur a collapse on a global scale. Remember, all these foreign countries NEED to buy, borrow and trade in a currency that THEY CANNOT PRINT! We do not have enough time here to go in depth on the Yen, Yuan, Pound or the Euro- all these currencies have different macro factors and trade factors which affect their currencies to a large degree. But the largest factor by FAR is Triffin’s Dilemma + the Dollar Milkshake, and their desperate need for dollars. That is why basically every fiat currency is collapsing versus the Dollar. The Fed, knowingly or not, is basically in charge of the global financial system. They may shout, “We raise rates in the US to fight inflation, global consequences be damned!!” - But that’s a hell of a lot more difficult to follow when large G7 countries are in the early stages of a full blown currency crisis. The most serious implication is that the Fed is responsible for supplying dollars to everyone. When they raise rates, they trigger a margin call on the entire world. They need to bail them out by supplying them with fresh dollars to stabilize their currencies. In other words, the Fed has to run the loosest and most accommodative monetary policy worldwide- they must keep rates as low as possible, and print as much as possible, in order to keep the global financial system running. If they don’t do that, sovereigns begin to blow up, like Japan did last week and like England did on Wednesday. And if the world’s financial system implodes, they must bail out not only the United States, but virtually every global central bank. This is the Sword of Damocles. The money needed for this would be well in the dozens of trillions. The Dollar Endgame Approaches… —------------------------------------------------------------- Q&A(Many of you have been messaging me with questions, rebuttals or comments. I’ll do my best to answer some of the more poignant ones here.)—-----Q: I’ve been reading your work, you keep saying the dollar is going to fall in value, and be inflated away. Now you’re switching sides and joining the dollar bull faction. Seems like you don’t know what you’re talking about! A: You’re mixing up my statements. When I discuss the dollar losing value, I am referring to it falling in ABSOLUTE value, against goods and services produced in the real economy. This is what is called inflation. I made this call in 2021, and so far, it has proven right as inflation has accelerated. The dollar gaining strength ONLY applies to foreign currency exchange markets (Forex)- remember, DXY, JPYUSD, and other currency pairs are RELATIVE indicators of value. Therefore, both JPY and USD can be falling in real terms (inflation) but if one is falling faster, then that one will lose value relative to the other. Also, Forex markets are correlated with, but not an exact match, for inflation. I attempted to foreshadow the entire dollar bull thesis in the conclusion of Part 1 of the Dollar Endgame, posted well over a year ago- Unraveling of the Currency Markets I did not give an estimate on when this would happen, or how long DXY would be whipsawed upwards, because I truly do not know. I do know that eventually the Fed will likely open up swap lines, flooding the Eurodollar market with fresh greenbacks and easing the dollar short squeeze. Then selling pressure will resume on the dollar. They would only likely do this when things get truly calamitous- and we are on our way towards getting there. The US bond market is currently in dire straits, which matches the prediction of spiking interest rates. The 2yr Treasury is at 4.1%, it was at 3.9% just a few days ago. Only a matter of time until the selloff gets worse. —------ Q: Foreign Central banks can find a way out. They can just use their reserves to buy back their own currency. Sure, they can try that. It’ll work for a while- but what happens once they run out of reserves, which basically always happens? I can’t think of a time in financial history that a country has been able to defend a currency peg against a sustained attack. Global Forex Reserves They’ll run out of bullets, like they always do, and basically the only option left will be to hike interest rates, to attract capital to flow back into their country. But how will they do that with global debt to GDP at 356%? If all these countries do that, they will cause a global depression on a scale never seen before. Britain, for example, has a bit over $100B of reserves. That provides maybe a few months of cover in the Forex markets until they’re done. Furthermore, you are ignoring another vicious feedback loop. When the foreign banks sell US Treasuries, this drives up yields in the US, which makes even more capital flow to the US! This weakens their currency even further. FX Feedback Loop To add insult to injury, this increases US Treasury borrowing costs, which means even if the Fed completely ignores the global economy imploding, the US will pay much more in interest. We will reach insolvency even faster than anyone believes. The 2yr Treasury bond is above 4%- with $31T of debt, that means when we refinance we will pay $1.24 Trillion in interest alone. Who's going to buy that debt? The only entity with a balance sheet large enough to absorb that is the Fed. Restarting QE in 3...2…1… —---- Q: I live in England. With the Pound collapsing, what can I do? What will happen from here? How will the governments respond? England, and Europe in general, is in serious trouble. You guys are currently facing a severe energy crisis stemming from Russia cutting off Nord Stream 1 in early September and now with Nord Stream 2 offline due to a mysterious leak, energy supplies will be even more tight. Not to mention, you have a pretty high debt to GDP at 95%. Britain is a net importer, and is still running government deficits of £15.8 billion (recorded in Q1 2022). Basically, you guys are the United States without your own large scale energy and defense sector, and without Empire status and a World Reserve Currency that you once had. The Pound will almost certainly continue falling against the Dollar. The Bank of England panicked on Wednesday in reaction to a $100M margin call on British pension funds, and now has begun buying long dated (10yr) gilts, or government bonds. They’re doing this as inflation is spiking there even worse than the US, and the nation faces a currency crisis as the Pound is nearing parity with the Dollar. BOE announces bond-buying scheme (9/28/22) I will not sugarcoat it, things will get rough. You need to hold cash, make sure your job, business, or investments are secure (ie you have cashflow) and hunker down. Eliminate any unnecessary purchases. If you can, buy USDs as they will likely continue to rise and will hold value better than your own currency. If Parliament goes through with more tax cuts, that will only make the fiscal situation worse and result in more borrowing, and thus more money printing in the end. —---- Q: What does this mean for Gamestop? For the domestic US economy? Gamestop will continue to operate as I am sure they have been- investing in growth and expanding their Web3 platform. Fiat is fundamentally broken. This much is clear- we need a new financial system not based on flawed 16th fractional banking principles or “trust me bro” financial intermediaries. My hope is that they are at the forefront of a new financial system which does not require centralized authorities or custodians- one where you truly own your assets, and debasement is impossible. I haven’t really written about GME extensively because it’s been covered so well by others, and I don’t feel I have that much to add. As for the US economy, we are still in a deep recession, no matter what the politicians say- and it will get worse. But our economic troubles, at least in the short term (6 months) will not be as severe as the rest of the world due to the aforementioned Dollar Milkshake. The debt crisis is still looming, midterms are approaching, and the government continues to deficit spend as if there’s no tomorrow. As the global monetary system unravels, yields will spike, the deleveraging will get worse, and our dollar will get stronger. The fundamental factors continue to deteriorate. I’ve covered the US enough so I'll leave it there. —------ Q: Did you know about the Dollar Milkshake Theory before recently? What did you think of it? Of course I knew about it, I’ve been following Brent Johnson since he appeared on RealVision and Macrovoices. He laid out the entire theory in 2018 in a long form interview here. I listened to it maybe a couple times, and at the time I thought he was right- I just didn’t know how right he was. Brent and I have followed each other and been chatting a little on Twitter- his handle is SantiagoAuFund, I highly recommend you give him a follow. Twitter Chat I’ve never met him in person, but from what I can see, his predictions are more accurate than almost anyone else in finance. Again, all credit to him- he truly understands the global monetary system on a fundamental level. I believed him when he said the dollar would rally- but the speed and strength of the rally has surprised me. I’ve heard him predict DXY could go to 150, mirroring the massive DXY squeeze post the 1970s stagflation. He could very easily be right- and the absolute chaos this would mean for global trade and finance are unfathomable. History of DXY —---------- Q: The Pound and Euro are falling just because of the energy crisis there. That's it! Why is the Yen falling then? How about the Yuan? Those countries are not currently undergoing an energy crisis. Let’s review the year to date performance of most fiat currencies vs the dollar: Japanese Yen: -20.31% Chinese Yuan: -10.79% South African Rand: -10.95% English Pound: -18.18% Euro: -14.01% Swiss Franc: -6.89% South Korean Won: -16.73% Indian Rupee: -8.60% Turkish Lira: -27.95% There are only a handful of currencies positive against the dollar, the most notable being the Russian Ruble and the Brazilian Real- two countries which have massive commodity resources and are strong exporters. In an inflationary environment, hard assets do best, so this is no surprise. —------ Q: What can the average person do to prepare? What are you doing? Obligatory this is NOT financial advice This is an extremely difficult question, as there are so many factors. You need to ask yourself, what is your financial situation like? How much disposable income do you have? What things could you cut back on? I can’t give you specific ideas without knowing your situation. Personally, I am building up savings and cutting down on expenses. I’m getting ready for a severe recession/depression in the US and trying to find ways to increase my income, maybe a side hustle or switching jobs. I am holding my GME and not selling- I still have some shares in Fidelity that I need to DRS (I know, sorry, I was procrastinating). For the next few months, I believe there will be accelerating deflation as interest rates spike and the debt cycle begins to unwind. But like I’ve stated before, this will lead us towards a second Great Depression very rapidly, and to avoid the deflationary blizzard the Fed will restart QE on a scale never seen before. QE Infinity. This will be the impetus for even worse inflation- 25%+ by this time next year. It’s hard to prepare for this, and easy to feel hopeless. It’s important to know that we have been through monetary crises before, and society did not devolve into a zombie apocalypse. You are not alone, and we will get through this together. It’s also important to note that we are holding the most lopsided investment opportunity of a generation. Any money you put in there can be grown by orders of magnitude. We are at the end of the Central Bankers game- and although it will be painful, we will rid the world of them, I believe, and build a new financial system based on blockchains which will disintermediate the institutions. They have everything to lose. —------ Q: I want to learn more, where can I do? What can I do to keep up to date with everything? You can start by reading books, listening to podcasts, and checking the news to stay abreast of developments. I have a book list linked at the end of the Dollar Endgame posts. I’ll be covering the central bank clown show on Twitter, you can follow me there if you like. I’ll also include links to some of my favorite macro people below:
—------------------- Nothing on this Post constitutes investment advice, performance data or any recommendation that any security, portfolio of securities, investment product, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. |
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 | I made the "What You Should Do After MOASS" DD about a year and a half ago, and I feel like the more important DD at the moment should've been about what Apes should be doing before MOASS happens. MOASS will only happen once, so it's important we get this done right while SHFs are currently fighting for their lives, not after the dust settles. submitted by -einfachman- to Superstonk [link] [comments] https://reddit.com/link/z86psz/video/tumth7rpgy2a1/player ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Recommended Requisite DD: ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ What You Should Do (Right Now) Before MOASS §1: Evaluate Your Opportunity Cost §2: Take Advantage of the Resources at Your Disposal §3: Focus on Your Mental Health ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ §1: Evaluate Your Opportunity Cost Well start with the definition of "opportunity cost". From Investopedia: What Is Opportunity Cost? Opportunity costs represent the potential benefits that an individual, investor, or business misses out on when choosing one alternative over another. Because opportunity costs are unseen by definition, they can be easily overlooked. Understanding the potential missed opportunities when a business or individual chooses one investment over another allows for better decision making. To simplify, here's an example: You have $10, you can choose between buying a sandwich right now, or use it for gas money. Your opportunity cost for using it as gas money is that you wouldn't be able to buy a sandwich, and vice versa. This can be attributed to GME. If you are thinking of going out for dinner and plan on spending $50+, your opportunity cost would be missing out of 2 GME shares. Now, imagine you go out for dinner once a week; you'd be forfeiting 104 GME shares annually. That's your opportunity cost, and it's a big deal when you put it that way. Not just that but I'm sure with the price of gas, to drive back and forth to get the dinner would also end up being another 25 GME shares annually, depending on the circumstances. So, you have to take these opportunity costs into account, because the goal should be saving as much as (reasonably) possible before MOASS. https://preview.redd.it/eyotecuxgy2a1.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=a5dd32e3f1288e52f4d03238d95eaebfc4de4142 Due note that there should obviously be a balance. Don't forfeit everything one way or another. You should still maintain a solid quality of life, while saving up GME shares as the same time. Nevertheless, everything you do has a cause and effect. If you are addicted to eating fast-food, quantify the costs of sustaining your glutenous habits versus how many GME shares you could've gotten instead. Same goes with consumeristic expenditures as well as alcohol/smoking addictions. Ask yourself, "how many millions of dollars am I losing post-MOASS by wasting my money on 'x', instead of saving up to buy GME shares directly from Computershare?" Take lessons from Laszlo Hanyecz, who sold 10,000 Bitcoins in return for 2 pizzas in 2010. https://preview.redd.it/pt3b0yazgy2a1.png?width=614&format=png&auto=webp&s=baa51ed97c550608b4417f1849d3ddb9e85e5f42 Had Laszlo even just analyzed his opportunity cost, or ran a cost-benefit analysis, he could've ended up saving his Bitcoin instead of spending it. And had he preserved it for at least 7 years, he would've easily been able to cash out at well over $100,000,000. But, unfortunately, not everyone runs those cost-benefit analyses, and they end up regretting them. I'm sure post-MOASS, there will be articles of paper hands saying they would've had $100 million had they not sold their GME to buy a car before MOASS, or something like that. And, as sad as it is, there's nothing much you can do for them, because as the old proverb goes, "you can lead a horse to water, but you can't make it drink." It's up to each and every one of you to make decisions on behalf of yourself and your family's future. You have to be the one to ascertain the optimal financial decision, depending on your individual circumstance. You have to be the one willing to make sacrifices for the long-term, and that includes (at least partially) withdrawing from short-term dopamine pleasures. §2: Take Advantage of the Resources at Your Disposal I've gotten a lot of DMs from Apes saying things like that they wish MOASS would happen soon because they don't currently have a job or can't afford to get anymore shares. Listen, there's always ways out there to stack up shares. Again, must I repeat, MOASS is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity. I've already explained in my DD DRS & Chill how this will never happen again post-MOASS. Do not take this for granted. Wherever you live, whatever your circumstances, there are always opportunities to stack up shares. If you want to add more to your DRS pile, but don't have a job or the money, don't just stay stagnant. Take initiative and take advantage of your resources. You don't even need a degree to work. As a matter of fact, here's a list of 10 jobs you could pursue right now to start stacking up on GME shares till MOASS:
If you're struggling mentally/physically, or suffering from some extraneous circumstance, take advantage of your state/federal government programs. For the U.S, you can take advantage of unemployment benefits/disability benefits. From all these different programs, you can receive passive income, and maybe you can take some concurrent cash gigs while you're at it, if possible. On top of all that, there's even more programs and opportunities for you to rack up money for registered GME shares. For instance, there are countless clinical research studies where you come in, do some tests (the tests vary), and they pay you with fat stacks. For example, here they're offering $20,000 if you partake in one study (this study is even full, because it's easy cash) https://preview.redd.it/1bfkcaf2hy2a1.png?width=1135&format=png&auto=webp&s=1595cbd3a329ba9bc39d2fd693dac4aa43a738c9 On top of that, there's always a variety of jobs on places like Craigslist that pay in cash for all types of services, from mowing lawns to painting houses. Like, there is legitimately no reason why you should be saying that you can't make money and that you can't continue to stack up some registered GME shares. There shouldn't need to be posts saying "I lost my job, and now I need to sell GME shares because I don't have money" (even though I'm sure many are shill posts). Now, why am I sharing all this information on all these various ways/opportunities Apes can make money in their lives? Because I legit care about my Ape brothers and sisters, and I want you to know that there are always opportunities out there to help you continue to add to the DRS pile before MOASS. Don't take all the opportunities around you for granted, because then you just might be taking MOASS for granted. And if you're stuck in the unfortunate circumstance where you're overburdened with debt and/or rent, and feel that you might get hit with a lien and lose your shares, you can look into transferring your registered GME shares to a trusted family member's name instead, and just file Chapter 7 (or Chapter 11) bankruptcy to wipe out the debt, and they can't steal your shares that way. I'm just saying I'd rather do that shit than give up my shares if I was in that situation. Because, otherwise, I'd be regretting it every day post-MOASS. §3: Focus on Your Mental Health https://preview.redd.it/52mobyx3hy2a1.png?width=1000&format=png&auto=webp&s=ea511b841f7c6a759bf4c86a68922a7bc1697c71 According to a survey from the Money and Mental Health Policy Institute, 72% of people with mental health problems said that their mental health problems have made their financial situation worse. Furthermore, 46% of people in problem debt also have a mental health problem. It's no surprise there's a direct link between mental health and financial stability. People struggling through mental health problems are more likely to make impulsive financial decisions or overspend to induce dopamine release. They may also lack motivation to manage their finances. This is why it is imperative that you ensure you're in a healthy mental state when you receive your MOASS money. If you are not in a good mental state right now, you are not ready for MOASS. What I mean by that, is that you need to be in good sound body and mind. MOASS won't fix your depression, it won't fix your substance abuse problems—you need to fix that. Stay active, go out, feel free to talk to people about your problems to get support and help. Don't stay isolated, living in your head all day long, that'll just slowly drive you crazy. I'm saying these things to help you. If you are not in a good mental state right now, and MOASS comes, you might not be thinking rationally. And if you're not thinking rationally, you can make poor decisions with your MOASS money that will bring you back to square one, such as gambling the MOASS money away on options and in casinos. You might not be in the right mind, and spend millions every day until you find yourself $15,000,000 in debt with a visit from the IRS. You might allow yourself to be taken advantage of like the lotto winner example from my DD What You Should Do After MOASS. Again, MOASS only happens once, so if you mess up because of your lapse in judgement, you cannot redo MOASS to get everything back. I'm telling you right now, if you are not in a good mental state before MOASS, you can easily lose the MOASS gains by poor decisions, whether it be dumb financial decisions, or getting scammed/taken advantage of by others, or simply a combination of the two. 70% of lotto winners go broke within a few years. If I randomly pick out 10 Apes right now, statistically speaking, 7 of them will lose their MOASS money within a few years. I don't want to see that happen. You might think "oh, but that can never be me", and it's that lack of humility that could very well be your downfall. It can very well be you, and that's exactly why you need to be extra careful and extra focused on maintaining a sound, rational mind for when MOASS comes. I know what that type of money can do to you. When I became a millionaire last year, I felt invincible, like I could do anything. Pair that moral hazard with a serious mental health problem, and you can easily lose that MOASS money. That being said, one of the most important things Apes can do is focus on their mental health in preparation for MOASS gains; the longevity of your future, post-MOASS, is dependent on it. It doesn't matter how long it takes until MOASS, whether it happens now or 2 years from now. I think the 2 main factors that will contribute to MOASS happening are (1) DRS and (2) the market crash. Those two are the biggest one's. In the meantime, if you'd like, you're more than welcome to follow the guidelines I set out in this DD to help prepare yourself before MOASS. We have time, and that's a good thing. The longer this takes, the stronger your position, and more prepared you can be. MOASS is inevitable. It will happen, regardless of whether or not you choose to prepare yourself for MOASS. The pressure is too great, and the DRS movement is unstoppable at this point. Millions of Apes with billions of dollars backing registered GME shares. Every purple circle that gets posted in this sub is a testament to the strength of the DRS train, and a further pain in the ass for SHFs. https://i.redd.it/un66jpyvgy2a1.gif |
 | I want to discuss what is happening with APE and why it is showing a constant steady decline over time. submitted by TheUltimator5 to amcstock [link] [comments] I believe that the price action is following a pattern called an exponential decay curve. This curve is defined by: https://preview.redd.it/bel589s6i63a1.png?width=1412&format=png&auto=webp&s=2bd6b3ceb4b42f5fb086691a5e6059e811463432 I overlayed a hand sketched exponential decay curve over the daily chart and we get something like this https://preview.redd.it/d70x2d2hg63a1.png?width=1123&format=png&auto=webp&s=d8438d2392e5d6677a206267bca809d5fdea3204 Note: A curve like this would require over 100% of the daily volume to be sold as naked shorts, so there is likely some degree of Citi Bank selling shares for $$, which is helping to dilute the float at an accelerated rate. Here is another chart showing how naked shorts affect the price. https://preview.redd.it/uzgyf1clg63a1.png?width=739&format=png&auto=webp&s=6ed3d5f30b8a388ac8a8bf3a596d39691fec0505 Where are all these naked shorts coming from? Stock locates. Every single day, 10,000,000 shares appear available to short, then magically get completely lent out by 9am est. It is important to note that 10,000,000 is the maximum number of shares that can be shown. The true number is likely much higher than 10 million. https://preview.redd.it/21mi2i8qe63a1.png?width=916&format=png&auto=webp&s=9f6f79daff1d26998b0cb8fc043f9ccbdf4fb0c4 And here's an image from a couple months ago, which shows that it happens every single day. https://preview.redd.it/3gj0n4w8n63a1.png?width=946&format=png&auto=webp&s=a26ac04f3cc8b244533a94d977f41338971d42fb This is likely done through a loophole called a one-day lend https://preview.redd.it/me5gtqx2f63a1.png?width=930&format=png&auto=webp&s=6bb649c731f3992b1db05f7ba38a8e51184ae403 Here is a video outlining the process told by the CEO of Overstock in greater detail than I ever could: https://youtu.be/COQvMsbb-Cw?t=195 We can also see that there is almost no correlation with APE and any other tickers. Here is the chart against SPY for today. Even during the massive market pump, APE continued to fall in price. https://preview.redd.it/36sv9qhhe63a1.png?width=1129&format=png&auto=webp&s=e0f831759dd3a38089136be621d9259cc2ff5d79 The reason for this is that APE is not tied into ETF baskets, has no options, and is generally disconnected from all other market moving factors. It is in its own unique basket which is "naked short this ticker as aggressively as possible". The idea behind this really twofold. 1) AMC is using APE to pay back debt. Short sellers cannot allow that to happen. If APE is too low to pay off their debt, they still can spew their bear case. 2) APE itself is dilutive. As AA (or Citi Bank) sells APE shares for $$$, the price will drop and naked shorting it as much as possible guarantees profits when he does sell more shares, plus it forces him to sell an even greater number of shares to make the same amount of money. This is also known as a death spiral https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/deathspiral.asp As for today's after hours price action, there were 7.5 million shares traded after hours at exactly 1 dollar. In my mind, this could be one of two things. 1) MMs held retail buy orders for 1$ (which were likely in the millions since it is such a key price), or 2) Citi Bank sold 7.5 million APE shares at 1$, diluting the price by 7.5 million shares. https://preview.redd.it/5s1t55f8e63a1.png?width=1041&format=png&auto=webp&s=05a3063baef8db8013b6367099a8e104ddef3851 I am eagerly waiting to see if AA addresses this and what his course of action will be. I made a post a couple months ago theorizing that APE will have a 1 BILLION + trade volume over the course of 1-2 days by Christmas time, and I still believe that to be true. All these naked shorts need to get their FTDs reset, and that typically happens through share buy-ins, where the shorted shares are purchased then very quickly sold back onto the market. This leads to incredible daily volume spikes as well as some very interesting price action. At the very least, it will give us a small window into what the true naked short interest looks like. Tell me what you think is going on, or if any of my theories don't hold water. There isn't a speculation flair, so I just marked this as discussion. TL;DR - APE being diluted as quickly as the short sellers can possible dilute it in order to achieve a death spiral effect on the price and AMC's debt reduction plan. |
| A/B | B stays silent | B betrays |
|---|---|---|
| A stays silent | -2/-2 | -10/0 |
| A betrays | 0/-10 | -5/-5 |
| Citadel/OLGMESHFs | All OLGMESHFs keep their GME short positions open | One of the OLGMESHFs closes their GME short position |
|---|---|---|
| Citadel keeps their GME short positions open | All parties slowly get eaten alive by paying interest on their shorts | Citadel gets obliterated during MOASS, causing a chain reaction which destroys the OLGMESHF (see Finkle is Einhorn) |
| Citadel closes their GME short positions | OLGMESHFs get obliterated during MOASS, causing a chain reaction which destroys Citadel (see Finkle is Einhorn) | N/A - only a few can close their positions before MOASS (due to the assumption listed above) |
| Citadel/OLGMESHFs | All OLGMESHFs keep their GME short positions open | One of the OLGMESHFs closes their GME short position |
|---|---|---|
| Citadel keeps their GME short positions open | All parties slowly get eaten alive by paying interest on their shorts and DIRECT REGISTRATION CAUSES SHORTS TO CLOSE | Citadel and other OLGMES gets obliterated during MOASS, causing a chain reaction which destroys the initiating OLGMESHF (see Finkle is Einhorn) |
| Citadel closes their GME short positions | OLGMESHFs get obliterated during MOASS, causing a chain reaction which destroys Citadel (see Finkle is Einhorn) | N/A - only a few can close their positions before MOASS (due to the assumption listed above) |
| short non-hedge funds (SNHF)/OLGMESHFs | All OLGMESHFs keep their GME short positions open | One of the OLGMESHFs closes their GME short position |
|---|---|---|
| All SNHF keeps their GME short positions open | All parties slowly get eaten alive by paying interest on their shorts and DIRECT REGISTRATION CAUSES SHORTS TO CLOSE | SNHF and other OLGMESHFs gets obliterated during MOASS, causing a chain reaction which destroys the initiating OLGMESHF (see Finkle is Einhorn) |
| One SNHF closes their GME short positions | OLGMESHFs get obliterated during MOASS but SNHF lives to short another stock | N/A - only a few can close their positions before MOASS (due to the assumption listed above) |
| | submitted by emadbably to OptionsInvestopedia [link] [comments] |
Forex crossover signal / Binary options winning strategies washington; Just signals binary options; Joe binestock Forexyard / Binary options hack automator tomato; Joe binestock Forexyard / Binary option live trader; First option binary book; Sg woelbern invest fonds de roulement / Option binary book scam; Sf invest chico ca zip code ; GPS Forex robot 2 myfxbook fxcm / Chinese uk investment ... DE saudi abaixo de 10,00, eu aposto que havia um monte de ordens SL sentado lá winforex História: forex vapor estoque opções gado cães forex caixa Rastreamento Calculuspips, se você ben seguindo estatutos mais recentes de Mr Kurdoa e Minutos BOJ mais recentes relaesd no início deste mês, você understaned de onde eu recebo. As melhores opções de ações História de 2017: ranking da ... Melissa http://www.blogger.com/profile/16484826989665334896 [email protected] Blogger 250 1 25 tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4567908117090032949.post ... Tap it it it in in in in in in in in in in in in Forex lain yang tetap setia dengan kejujurannya.<br />Jadi dalam hal ini, pesan saya sebelum menjalin kerja sama antar bisnis forex anda pastikan terlebih dahulu rekan kerja anda memberikan informasi válido dan bisa di pegang kata - katanya sehingga anda bisa terhindarkan dari bentuk penipuan.<br />Untuk memulai bisnis trading forex bekal ... Por exemplo, se um comerciante tem 10.000 em uma conta forex. Uma posição de 100.000 (um lote padrão) iria utilizar 10: 1 alavancagem. Enquanto o comerciante poderia abrir uma posição muito maior se ele ou ela fosse maximizar a alavancagem, uma posição menor irá limitar o risco. (Para leitura adicional, veja Adicionando alavancagem para o seu Forex Trading.) 8. Manter bons registros Um ... These price zones should monitor every professional forex trader. There are many ways to trade the S/R zones and the indicator profitably. The most widely used strategies are: 1) Range trading - trade pullbacks. 2) Trade reversals as soon as supports become resistances or resistances become supports. 3) Take profits or set stop-loss based on support/resistance zones. For more information how ... Dovete comunque un assegno personale 10.000 così si ottiene solo tassati sui profitti oltre 10k in un anno fiscale uno. Questo scenario presuppone che il speculazione sul forex non è la vostra unica fonte di reddito e che si paga un po 'imposta sul reddito tramite un lavoro di qualche tipo. Se forex trading è diventato il vostro reddito unico, allora il IR molto probabilmente guardare la ...
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