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![]() | The End game has begun. Stagflationary 1972-73 Price pump or Deflationary 2008 bust.? I am prepared for both ;) submitted by DesmondMilesDant to wallstreetbets [link] [comments] Disclaimer : Apologies beforehand for a lot of verbose because of the final newsletter. For quick read up i suggest reading "Tl;dr section" ( headings ) and for the reasons behind it are included in the detailed "Experiment section". Intro: “I felt a great disturbance in the force as if millions of voices slowly and wildly got together and then there was an uprising against the government and the financial institutions”Sorry guys, I was supposed to send this the day before yesterday ( great movie ) but unfortunately I got caught up in a celebration we are having over here. So it's the start of the weekend. Y’all know what that means. I'm not talking about having a party lol, that is for me. You guys have to decipher this long post so that you can protect yourself from the upcoming danger that I am seeing. In short you’re fucked if you don’t read this especially institutions and hedge funds. Just for this week please avoid strip clubs. This one's for you guys because you read my post. ( I like to think so ) Retail public especially retards i don’t have words for you guys. You guys can chill this weekend because all you do is sh9t on my post. Might as well sh9t on this too. I don’t care since all you’re obsessed with is Ryan Cohen and $BBBY. So when you’re finally over him after getting drunk this weekend then you can go ahead and read this post. Could be worth your time. As for people asking me why I don't give my opinions regarding meme stocks. Well folks the reason is simple. We are still in a bear market according to my calculations. So it's written somewhere in the gospel of investing that bear markets are the opportunities to analyze value companies, not meme companies which are about to be purge in the upcoming mega crash as an offering to please the gods of stock market. Yes you “You-tube” folks the crash hasn’t even started yet. We still have -53% to go from here till March 2023 as my base case. Don't even ask me about my worst case. For that just open the Dow Jones 1929-1932 chart. Tl;dr and Td;du folks : ( Too long didn't read, Too dumb didn’t understand ) We have already discussed this : Buy 4 months/2 months/1 months puts i.e Dec 30/Oct 29/Sept 29 at the money with strike price near about "200 day moving average = 200dMA" in $SPY last week of august if it comes. It already did one time on August 16 and i think the top is already in. So you’re gonna profit regardless. Invalidation would be three white soldier candles above 200dMA of course in daily chart. For positions go scroll down. ( I will make you work for it at-least. xD ) We have a long way to go friends. Now for those folks who want a detailed explanation about everything let’s dive in. Respected Traders and Investors, How are you guys doing? It’s been a long time hasn’t it. God I was gone for a while and had Ni-san use my Reddit account for a few days. First of all, I'm gonna apologize for the Shzio post by my brother Itachi. Man, it felt like it messed up my brains for a while there. It was so damn trippy. So I highly highly advise you guys not to go and read it a second time. Please, it's for your own health. Regardless i love my brother analysis coz he thinks like no other normal people do in the world of trading/investing. So, I take full responsibility for my actions and if things don't go as planned out in the above charts ( i.e the mega crash doesn’t happen you know ) then you’re not gonna hear from us. P.s. We promised you that we will do these posts only in bear markets. Even if the USA goes into depression for 10 to 15 years we will post in a week or two until we visit ath ( all time high ) once again. One may ask why not do this stuff in the bull market? Guys you have to understand we are not bull market specialists. For bull markets it's generally advised to follow moon boys on twitter, tik-tok, You-tube etc. They are more educated and well informed than us in that department with a huge audience behind them. ( They spend so much on marketing lol ) Recap : Predictions 2022 so far. I don’t usually like to do this because my readers already know about this but it’s time to back-test how accurate we ( i.e. me and my brother ) have been this whole time especially to show random people who are new to reading these kinds of posts especially when it’s season finale.
https://preview.redd.it/6n7xv1xs52j91.png?width=1851&format=png&auto=webp&s=ef518b9218d0bc29d830fc61927009ece8a66438
https://preview.redd.it/ictvxtex52j91.png?width=622&format=png&auto=webp&s=1905d15b9028016b853e12dd817097c285d2eac7
https://preview.redd.it/brojy4p462j91.png?width=743&format=png&auto=webp&s=a96db2532fe7643a3b03e3f2293102e8c28a06e2
https://preview.redd.it/da60ccei62j91.png?width=818&format=png&auto=webp&s=ce9e342a4a1f31b7ed9cd4931c8511bdd9368ae5 And then there were bond, commodity, Dxy calls that we are not even mentioning. What this all means is that the stock markets have been performing as we had hoped for since February which is like 6-7 months ago. So i guess we are not a broken clock and actually do provide the exact days or should i say the time horizon. Am I a member of secret society i.e. "Illuminati” or have contacts in "Pay pal mafia" ? No guys. I am not a member of secret society nor do i have any contacts. My brother do though. I do want to manage the portfolio of wealthy clients like my brother someday but I'm too lazy. I just want to take bets and watch anime and Tv shows my entire life. I just finished West world and now i guess i will watch episode 1 of “House of dragons”. ( Why did that producer said bad things about Emilia. Hmm ) As for anime recommendation man its getting hard to find good ones. I'm just waiting for Chainsaw man now. About my self. Before all of this I was a Computer Science student whose only good skill was learning a hybrid application development platform called Flutter ( By Google ) but now I just write detailed and boring posts on Wall Street bets about anything that comes to my mind for you guys. My predictions come right because of you folks so thank you for taking trades and also I just basically copy pasted 2008 charts ( 32nd death week ) like I do with Git-hub while programming. Now will I be wrong in the future? Of course I will be. I’m no economist. I just make cases i.e stock market = 1972-73 or 2008 and just bet on them. Also a big hedge fund guy might find my post someday and take the opposite trade against me wrecking people who followed my advice. Hence i always tell you guys “Do your own research“ “This is not financial advice” even though it will be right most of the time. You absolutely should not follow anybody w/o checking out at-least 10 other guys. Why take my advice ? So now that we have cleared some of the confusion which I couldn't in my Wsb guest talk appearance you might be thinking why we should even consider your advice in the top 10 folks we watch. You’re a nobody. Well folks in my defense i would say it's because I gradually improved myself. Earlier my posts were shitty but now they are getting better especially my T.A. And I'm also learning economics day by day. Do you know guys I didn't wanted to write this as final post coz I was actually busy working on other post like “Deciphering Stagflation 70's” and “Thermodynamics in Economics” as my farewell post. Yes it's true guys the US economy is one giant open system. That’s how Elon Musk and Jerome Powell do calculations about economics. xD Well enough spoilers about the next season. I know you guys are getting bored. So lets now finally jump in what i wanted to actually talk about. Experiment : Tools :” I mean the Technicals i will be using today includes : -> Candle sticks -> Elliot wave with Fibonacci -> Stochastic Rsi -> My favorite which never ever lies : Pvt(O) -> At last my “Ketlner channels” Procedure : Step 1 : Forex Markets Eur-usd Eur-usd : Have you ever seen such a bearish chart in your life both on a weekly and monthly basis? I mean as much as I love European countries but I have to say your Eur-usd charts sucks equally much. Putin owns you guys this winter. Italy and Germany are already suffering so much with 10x bills gas + electricity if compared with 2021 so i can't even imagine about countries like Spain, Greece etc. Okay so I'm gonna stop myself now with the pessimism and dive into Technicals. Weekly Time Frame Analysis : ( Left chart )
Monthly Time Frame Analysis : ( Right chart )
Result : I can confidently say with 1000% certainty that Eur-usd is going down. Thank you madam Lagarde. You’re doing such a fine job by selling German Bund and buying Italian bonds. Congratulations to you and your PEP tool (Lol, guys this woman is bat-sh9t crazy) Gbp-usd Gbp-usd : Well first Sir Mr Bailey. I have to say I'm a big fan of your honesty if you are reading this. I mean in today's world it's hard to find someone that honest in a government job. So guys we know inflation is double digit’s over here ( heading to 13% or was it 15% in coming months ) and in September the Bank of England is going with 50 bps. So we already know that Uk is gonna have more than 2Q of -ve Gdp. I hope you Uk folks survive considering you're gonna lose jobs, probably go into economic depression because recession is everybody’s base case even of Mr Bailey. So enough details let’s do analysis. Weekly Time Frame Analysis : ( Left chart )
Monthly Time Frame Analysis : ( Right chart )
Result : I can confidently say Gbp-usd is going down. Mr Soros if you’re listening to this, let's break the “Bank of England” once again. Just for good old times sake. Usd-Jpy Usd-jpy : If i tell you anything about this forex pair I’m probably Bs’ing you. It’s true guys. Even Mr Kuruda the governor of Boj doesn’t know where the Usd-jpy is gonna go. But what we can speculate is if the dollar becomes so much stronger due to the weakness in the Eur-usd equation then Dxy is gonna pump past 110 and the dollar becomes stronger. Got it. So I could easily play this approach into my thesis by telling you yes this pair is just gonna go up. But I will not do that. Instead I'm gonna play a devil’s advocate here saying Usd-jpy will go down. So let’s analyze things which are a total waste of your and my time because I'm gonna reverse this forex you will see how. Weekly Time Frame Analysis : ( Left chart )
Monthly Time Frame Analysis : ( Right chart )
So since I took the bear case it doesn't look like any bearish to me. Don't you agree? So our devil in devil’s advocate looks weak. So to fit our thesis lets reverse this. This is kinda like physics or Math kind of stuff where we proof things by assuming inverse. Result : I cannot confidently say but I will say Jpy-usd is going up to 148 at my favorite dot com times where Dxy went 120. Hence i’m selling my Yen trust with ticker $FXY. Step 2 : DXY. A basket of forex currencies. You must be wondering, I'm gonna introduce another colorful RGB crayon drawing chart on both weekly and monthly. Sorry to disappoint you folks but I'm not doing that. Instead let’s use our brains. We know that US dollar Index i.e. Dxy is used to measure the value of the dollar a/g basket of 6 currencies. The Euro, Swiss Franc, Japanese Yen, Canadian Dollar, British pound and Swedish krona. Now I'm not gonna explain you here why dollar is global reserve currency or dollar has more liquidity so let’s just assume that. So what happens now is when Eur-usd becomes weaker, investors usually go risk off and buy the safest asset in the world i.e Dollar. Hence the Dxy goes stronger which suggests the dollar is getting stronger coz european buddies will exchange for dollars coz its very liquid and due to interest rate differentials. ( Remember Gbp-usd is an exception to interest rate differential coz what's happening over there is interest rates will go up but their currency is still losing its strength ) We have discussed a thesis in past letters already and came to a conclusion and I quote. “Eur-usd is a mirror image of the Dxy chart.” Remember this for your lifetime. Especially you Gen-z. I wasn’t gonna post a chart but then I realized I should for new folks who are lazy to read past posts. Eur-usd breaks parity and goes 0.80 levels Dxy will be 120 for sure. In monthly Dxy is super bullish. And on a weekly basis it's trying to close above 107 i believe. Hence your Voldemort asset class dropped -8% i guess. Right ? Mirror chart : DXY vs Eur-usd Result : I can confidently say Dollar or DXY is getting stronger in comparison to Euro, Gbp and Jpy. Hence DXY to 120 is back on the table according to the “20yrs of wyckoff accumulation” pattern. If you cleanly break 110-112 i must say equities especially the Spx is gonna visit to my $3200 level. Now some Cnbc or Bloomberg guys who stole my research and didn’t gave me credit 2-3 months ago used to come on tv and say things like “Oh in 2018 Spx visited 200wMA so it makes sense that this cycle which is even more tightening compared to last makes sense to visit this range.” So folks now the Spx has shifted its 200wMA/50mMA = $3500-$3600. But these clowns oops economists don't know that we should take a look at the monthly chart. Once you open that. Your pants are about to drop coz in the last tightening we visited not 200wMA but 100 monthly moving average i.e 100mMA. Yeah let’s go visit makachev vs oliviera in oct 23rd ufc 280. So if we cross paths over there I will tell you we are going to Spx $2873 i.e. somewhere around $2800-2900 which my close friend Dr Burry suggested too. Hence he sold + he is shorting coz he has relieved every moment in 2008. So he knows what’s coming next. You guys don’t. Step 3 :Eur-usd Implied Fed funds 100-CME:GEZ2023 ( Not gonna use Elliot wave + Fib trend starting here now ) This is like gonna be super high level stuff even far above my pay grade. Only Zoltan can explain this using repo markets but since he is busy I will try to explain it in a funny way. So if you might have watched Cnbc this past week two economists were arguing about how Fed funds have priced in 4% already but one might be saying no it has only priced in 3.4-3.5%. So who is right? If you watch “Everything money” by my suggestion then Mo came to the conclusion that the reason he is saying 4% is because the Fed is doing QT + rate hikes which Mo still does not believe. So who is right and what is the right explanation for 4% ? Imo they both are right but the explanation is wrong. The reason one should present about the 4% Fed funds argument is that in Eur-usd implied Fed funds went to 4%. Hence the market has priced 4% in the euro dollar banking system. But if you take only the dollar banking system in Usa then we look at yields of 2 yr and 10 yr which are hinting that Fed funds 3.4-3.5% is already priced in by the markets. Eur-usd implied Fed funds. Monthly and weekly time frame analysis :
Result : I can confidently say that we are going up here technically. So J. Powell, could you please back me up on this. Zoltan agrees with me. Snyder doesn’t. ( Just remember implied fed funds can go up due to Eur-usd weakness. So its kinda like indirect interest rate hike for markets. Add QT on top of that. Hence Fed is dovish in Fomc minutes for rate hikes ) Step 4 : HYG & LQD : The corporate bonds HYG Hyg : This product is designed to replicate a benchmark which provides a broad representation of the U.S. dollar-denominated high yield liquid corporate bond market. The high yield bond space has been cracked wide open by ETFs, as these products have offered numerous ways for investors to take advantage of this space. High yields can be a great addition to a yield-starved portfolio, as they can offer yields into the double digits for those willing to take on the risks that come along with it. The high returns come from riskier bond choices who have to pay out higher ratios to compensate investors for high risks. This means that the holdings of these ETFs will have higher chances of defaults, and could potentially leave investors out to dry. But those who have done their homework on the holdings of a particular “junk” bond fund have the ability to generate strong returns from these powerful products. HYG keeps most of its assets inside of the U.S., though it does offer a slice of international exposure as well. The ETF is dominated by corporate bonds, the majority of which have investment grades between B and BB. This product will make a great income addition to any investor who is fully aware of the risks a high yield bond product carries. Weekly time frame analysis :
Monthly time frame analysis :
LQD : I leave it up to you guys. Cmon at least do one. Result : I cannot confidently say that we are going down on a monthly time frame ( i need to see more data ) but yah sure on weekly we are going down because of that deadly candle that folks have been talking about. Step 5 : IEI/HYG : Government bond price / Corporate bond price. IEI/HYG : Double check below thing. IEI/HYG : If it goes up then credit spreads are widening. ( Bad thing i.e risk off ) IEI/HYG : If it goes down then credit spreads are tightening. ( Good thing i.e. risk on ) Weekly time frame analysis :
Monthly time frame analysis :
Result : I cannot confidently say that we are going up on a monthly time frame ( i need to see more data ) but yah sure on weekly we are going up. Step 6 : ( Super scary ) : Velocity of m2 or m1 money supply i.e v = us gdp / m1 or m2. Velocity of M2 This is a very debatable topic. Only the pros have the right to argue about this stuff and no one else. Peter lynch once told me during my time travel visit that people worry that the velocity of money supply is going up way too fast then we are gonna have depression and if the velocity of money supply goes down then too we are gonna have depression. So which one is it? Anyways Q3 2020 : 1.149 was the highest reading. Currently we are trying to break it. Q2 2022 : 1.147 "The velocity of money is the frequency at which one unit of currency is used to purchase domestically- produced goods and services within a given time period. In other words, it is the number of times one dollar is spent to buy goods and services per unit of time. If the velocity of money is increasing, then more transactions are occurring between individuals in an economy. This is called an expanding economy." ~ By Fred website. So go out there and ask your banking friends and tell them please explain the concept of money supply in today's terms. Not an old term. So I too went to my brother for advice. He told me “ F off “ Result : “F off” Step 7 : Gold We are not gonna do weekly and monthly time frame analysis on this. Some of you guys may be like “Dude, I'm an old man with agricultural land. I wanna own gold like my ancestors from 18th century coz i believe in stagflation, parabolic move, end of the world, negative debasement hedge blah blah” So i need charts. Old man's Gold : Old man you need to chill. We are gonna use our brain like Peter Schiff. So we know, gold doesn't love that his nemesis dollar is going up. Now if you can tell me how high Dxy will go up then i can tell you that the top of Dxy will be the bottom of Gold. Also gold doesn’t love financial crisis or bank runs. In my world gold is a phoenix who rises from ashes. Meaning if we plunge into the abyss then gold is gonna drag us out of there first. Then indices move and other asset classes. Digital Gold : As for young folks, you love the King of Voldemort asset class don’t you? So go buy it at amazon bottom i.e. $4-5k or my favorite Richard heart level -83% i.e 10,690. Or if you really don't have the patience like probably 99% of the entire world population you buy some % of this commodity for whatever reasons these guys are selling you at $20k. I shall rest my case now. Result : Dollar i.e. Dxy up = Gold down and vice versa. Step 8 : TLT/JNK : It’s kinda like IEI/HYG Can you guys do this please? Hint : Bullish divergence on weekly and monthly. Meaning TLT ( 20yr treasury bond etf by black rock ) buying over Junk bonds i.e. JNK Step 9 : US Oil. Let's go Brandon and the government. Just how much are you gonna manipulate the best inflation hedge alive. You guys have already killed my Gold. Yes you J.P. Morgan traders, I hate you. May your bank dies in upcoming crash and have Panic of 2023 just like Knickbocker crisis in 1907. Only then I shall have my vengeance a/g those rumors you circulated back in the days. So guys you probably would know this that our Usa Government try to manipulate oil market just to please people and ask for votes. These are some of their stupid tactics.
This is the most manipulated market I have ever seen in my 100 yr+ of lifetime. So traders if your conclusion from my above observation was that we should short Oil lemme tell you something in double quotes. “Be afraid of Putin’s Winter Oil boogeyman”. "Contango is a dangerous thing that futures creates" You don’t short Oil in winter. Period. Heck you shouldn’t even trade Oil. Only the expert can do this because it's called “Widow Maker” i.e. the losses in this commodity trading could be catastrophic planetary devastation like. Tip : Btw currently oil is in downwards wedge and it could break to upside and we go up in winter but Oil too like gold doesn't love Dxy going up. So kinda mixed signals i guess. Let's see who shall prevail bulls or bears of oil. Result : Dollar i.e. Dxy up = Oil down and vice versa but Winter is coming/ Contango = Maybe Oil up. Step 10 : Powell curve i.e.10 yr - 3 month, 2 yr - 3 month ( Pvt(o) and Elliot wave doesn't work here ) Do you guys remember the talk we had with Powell earlier this year when he was trying to explain us that the inversion of the 10 yr - 2 yr curve doesn't mean anything and unless the near term curve inverts it's all okay. Well folks Powell near time curves are close to getting inverted. Therefore you’re seeing these Fed officials talk dovish recently. Coz if they invert Fed will lose their remaining 0.0000001% credibility. So let’s analyze them on a weekly time frame because on a monthly time frame they look super super bearish to me and there is no chance that the curve won’t invert at some point later on. J Powell/ Fed Curves : Us10y-Us03m , Us02y-Us03m Weekly time frame analysis :
Larry Summers former Fed chairman came recently to Bloomberg saying that the Fed has shown in latest minutes that they don’t even know what they are doing. Hence they Bs’ing us in their statement. I mean guys just read these hawkish and dovish points yourself. Also do check out the hidden statements in minutes which are pieces of advice for billionaires about liquidity and t-bills. Don’t forget my warning about bank runs. They are coming. My bet is Well’s Fargo Oct 2022/23 = Lehman brothers Oct 2008 or you could also go with lowest read by a bank in Fed stress test. Hawkish vs Dovish vs Billionaire's ( Highlighted in blue ) Fed minutes. As for individual bonds and overall yield curve : Bonds :
Yield curve :
Credits : Eurodollar University. By Jeff Snyder Note : Yield should be higher if the time horizon is higher. Meaning shorter end like 2 yr to 5 yr should yield less than 10 yr and 20 yr normally due to unknown risks associated in far future. But look here in these charts. A 52 w t-bill is yielding more than 20 yr and 10 yr bonds. That’s insane. It tells us there is a danger in next 1-2yrs as compared to far in future. The curve has gone banana's b/w 26 w t-bill to 10 yr bond. After 10 yr to 20 yr curve looks so good and why won't it. Because after the most horrible decade in entire history of Usa will come a little less horrible decade. Haha. Result : I can confidently say yields are going up in respective bonds. But will basic yield curve i.e us10y-us02y will steepen or invert more is out of my pay grade. Step 11 : VIX. It looks so ready to pop anytime. I mean what do i even say here. This whole year traders are buying Vix calls in 20 and shorting equities and as the Vix goes 30 they sell their calls and buy puts. Meanwhile longing their equities position. So smart Vix traders, it's time to integrate the mega crash in your calculations. Meaning do the first phase of second part but leave tf out of second phase of second part i.e. don't buy puts on Vix and don't try to long equity in 30 coz this time folks are going to promised Vix 40+. Result : Vix is going up. Reason : It's mid terms + Putin x Jinpig x Biden at G8 = Volatility in Sept - Nov. Conclusion : Financial derivation = Take those steps into consideration that you are confident in your analysis. So I chose my Eur-usd pokemon. Reason : I am quite confident in my analysis and Lagarde. Plus Fed minutes made a commentary about this that dollar is looking so strong as comparison to Euro. Maybe this too played a part in their recent dovish commentary. Assuming : Eur usd is going down coz Europe is f’ed. ( We were most confident about this in all of our steps. Also my birdie told me 0.93 eur-usd traders have risen from their grave in options market ) Above assumption ( proving in step 1 t.a. ) will mean :
But what about bonds?
Final Result : Every step we proved above using technical analysis on weekly and monthly time frame is being backed by my financial derivation except one thing. Will us10y-us02y curve invert more or steepen.? Coz steepening is bad for dollar strength whereas more inversion is good for dollar strength i.e. Dxy. P.s. I think i'm so confused. Damn these bonds are tough to read. Note : I forgot Dr copper. Lol. Why is it going up when Gold and other metals is going down? *** Illuminati said : "Coz Dxy move up or bond yields move up is not because of rate hikes. They all are priced in. It's because of pseudo rate hikes on the Global market that is causing dollar to strengthen. This is due to QT + Eur-usd , Gbp-usd going down. Throw Japanese yen in there too but its chart is going up coz its Usd-jpy pair not Jpy-usd. Just like i said before too. Farewell : Thank you guys for your patience in reading an 8yr old post with naruto references w/o even mentioning Naruto anywhere coz Itachi stole the show. xD I am so tired guys coz i was busy writing stuff for you guys whatever was coming to my mind and leaving no mistake in my final calculations. Take care guys. I hope one of you becomes a billionaire in this Wsb group and then pump meme stock for future generations. So suck the life out of me in the comments section. I will reply to every single one of your queries one last time. ( Now playing David Guetta : Just one last time ) Again like i always say. Don't forget your friends and family. Call them once every week. Be humble, stay safe and eat healthy. With lots of love Regards Uchiha x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x THE END Sayonara...!!! |
![]() | Good Day, Apes! submitted by -einfachman- to Superstonk [link] [comments] I originally dropped my research into this a month ago, due to hitting a cold trail. However, in light of the many requests I have gotten from Apes to continue the research, as well as the resourceful leads I received from Apes, such as “throwawaylurker012” and “Wurmholz”, I decided to continue digging, and I have now collected enough evidence to produce this DD post. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BCG & Goldman Sachs Were (At Least) Partially Responsible for the Events Leading Up to the Default of Greece [And Citadel Profited From It]. §1: The History §2: The Connections §3: The Implications ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- §1: The History It all started in 2001, 2 years after the European Union (EU) created the Euro. Only nations of the EU that had a debt-to-GDP at 60% or less could adopt the Euro. Greece, however, had a debt-to-GDP that exceeded the 60% acceptable limit; as such, they were not allowed to adopt the Euro. Adoption of the Euro came with many perks, among which included more trade, financing, leverage, and a stronger overall position internationally. This is why Greece desperately wanted to adopt the Euro, so much so that Goldman Sachs exploited their desperation with an inauspicious deal. https://preview.redd.it/besxqwve4gy81.png?width=1440&format=png&auto=webp&s=89cd3ce9bc5ba2f36b9c791b3a48f89e5af6892c Goldman Sachs helped Greece hide their debt via manipulation through currency swaps. This way, Greece could appear as if they held significantly less debt than they actually had, meeting the debt-to-GDP threshold allowing them to adopt the Euro. With the help of Goldman Sach's legerdemain, Greece was able to join the Eurozone in 2001. [The Eurozone is a monetary union of member states of the EU that adopted the Euro (€) as their primary currency and sole legal tender.] This is where the problems began for Greece. The debt-to GDP ratio continued to increase substantially, while Greece admitted in 2004 to exaggerating budget deficit figures. The situation, however, was still somewhat manageable, as there was steady economic growth as well as EU funding towards the deficit. This came undone with the Great Recession of 2008, where the Athens Stock Exchange crashed 65%, along with Greece's GDP tanking and borrowing rates skyrocketing. The Euro made things worse after the Great Recession. It prevented Greece from stabilizing, due to monetary policy. On April 27, 2010, Standard & Poor's downgraded Greek credit rating to junk status. With Greek bonds rated as junk bonds, the debt crisis became harder and harder to escape. Not only was Greece having a harder time securing money to pay off the debt, but their borrowing rates kept increasing, dragging them further into the hole. Economic rescue began soon after, with 2 bailouts from the Troika (a group formed by the International Monetary Fund, the European Commission, and the European Central Bank), which came in the form of €240 billion, major debt haircuts (reduction on the value of the debt), and austerity measures (i.e. spending cuts as well as substantial increase in taxes). In 2015, the citizens of Greece fought back from the austerity measures (of higher taxes, unemployment, and reduction in wages) by voting in the ΣΥΡΙΖΑ (syriza) anti-austerity party, which went against the austerity measures proposed by the Troika deal. This further increased the budget deficit, and on June 20, 2015, Greece officially defaulted on its debt (failing to pay $1.7 billion to the IMF), making Greece the first country to miss a payment to the IMF since Zimbabwe in 2001. The Athens Stock Exchange, consequently, was shut down on June 27, 2015. Greek banks were also shut down to avoid a total collapse. Ultimately, Greece received a third bailout on August, this time an €86 billion bailout from Eurogroup. Although Greece finished its bailout program, it still maintains an extremely high debt-to-GDP (approx. 193%, as of 2021 [down from 206% in 2020]), and millions of Greeks still suffer from the ramifications of the debt crisis. The austerity measures during the debt crisis led to unemployment reaching a height of 27.47% (according to Statista), and still reports an unemployment rate of 16.85%, as of 2020. According to Poverty Watch Greece, nearly 1 out of 3 Greeks are at risk of poverty, as of 2021. Domestic businesses were also forced to cut production as well as wages significantly, as a result of the debt crisis. With consumption and investments decreasing substantially in Greece, along with rising costs of production, many businesses went bankrupt, and the hedge funds that shorted said businesses profited greatly from it all. §2: The Connections In the case of Goldman Sachs, they made tons of money from Greece's default in a variety of ways. Firstly, they made money on the transactions with Greece to help hide its default via swaps. According to Armitage from "The Independent", "Goldman Sachs is said to have made as much as $500 million from the transactions." But they made much more money on the sovereign credit default swaps against Greece. A sovereign credit default swap is a financial contract in which you pay a premium for insurance in the event of a nation's default. In layman's terms: country defaults ⇒ you get money. This is similar to a regular credit default swap on a company, where you make money when a company defaults on debt. Hedge funds/banks have a history of trading sovereign credit default swaps, and these swaps were abused so much on Greece that on November, 2012, the EU banned all naked sovereign credit default swaps (as reported by Noked from the Harvard Law School Forum on Corporate Governance). We should note that, unfortunately, this did not extend to all sovereign credit default swaps, only "naked" or uncovered sovereign credit default swaps. The Greek government openly accused U.S hedge funds and investment banks of attacking its country, for the sole purpose of profiting off of sovereign credit default swaps. Among those that attacked Greece, Goldman Sachs and billionaire hedge fund manager John Paulson were called out by the Greek government, reported by Michel-François Clerin at Finyear. There's a good article from the New York Times, "Banks Bet Greece Defaults on Debt They Helped Hide" that goes into more depth on how sinister this scheme really was. Not only did Goldman Sachs help put the Greek government into this financial dilemma, but they also bet that the government was going to default and made billions in doing so. In essence, they knew that Greece was going to get themselves into a bad financial situation by concealing their debt, and profited off Greece drowning itself in debt as well as the millions of Greeks that suffered as a result of it all. As the New York Times states, "These contracts, known as credit-default swaps, effectively let banks and hedge funds wager on the financial equivalent of a four-alarm fire: a default by a company or, in the case of Greece, an entire country. If Greece reneges on its debts, traders who own these swaps stand to profit. “It’s like buying fire insurance on your neighbor’s house; you create an incentive to burn down the house,” said Philip Gisdakis, head of credit strategy at UniCredit in Munich. As Greece’s financial condition has worsened, undermining the euro, the role of Goldman Sachs and other major banks in masking the true extent of the country’s problems has drawn criticism from European leaders." So, we understand how Goldman Sachs was involved, but how about BCG? BCG was actually involved and impacted Greece in a variety of ways. BCG's Greece office was founded in 2001, the same year that Greece began manipulating their balance sheets via swaps [although, I should point out that according to legal forms provided by "Kompass", they were established in Athens, Greece as early as 2000]. And as soon as BCG joined affairs in Greece, they began influencing the decisions made by banks. The BCG HQ in Greece has a division specifically for wholesale banking (providing banking-related services to other banks, institutions, and government agencies). They actually have a page on their site that goes over their wholesale banking services. You can find many of BCG's consultants in Greece left to get into positions with large Greek banks or in Greek government. Even the current Mayor of Athens worked at BCG. This is an important factor to note, as we already know Citadel has a history of using BCG to spy, infiltrate, and manipulate other entities from within for their own economic benefit. Example: Incriminating article discovered by Ape "JustBeingPunny". https://preview.redd.it/g8t2757h4gy81.png?width=735&format=png&auto=webp&s=f13dc8fbc73e29337ca9c6d5c1fb61dcc34b2308 On pg. 8 par. 6 There was already a lot of DD in the past that demonstrated how BCG consultants in the U.S would be sent by BCG to infiltrate companies being shorted by Citadel and Co. for purposes of reconnaissance (via corporate espionage), as well as taking down companies from within (e.g. Macy's, Toys "R" Us, Blockbuster, Bed Bath & Beyond, etc.). Infiltrators from BCG not only took down companies through sucking out their money and making terrible decisions from within, but also having said companies overleveraging themselves on loans they couldn't afford to pay back. Sound familiar? That being said, if BCG was tasked by a hedge fund with the objective of helping ensure that Greek bonds would be downgraded to junk bonds (as well as ensuring that businesses in Greece would be more likely to head to bankruptcy), the smart decision would be to have consultants helping banks ensure that is the outcome, such as Goldman Sachs (which some BCG consultants got hired from after 'resigning' from BCG) or Alpha bank (a major Greece bank that BCG consultants also transferred to). Now, as I've stated before in §1: The History, €240 billion came from the first 2 bailouts. Cottrell, from one of Germany's most relevant international broadcasters, Deutsche Welle (DW), asserts that only 5% of international bailout money for Greece was used for government reform, and that most of the money was used to pay off banks and take out more loans from banks. In his article, Most of Greek bailout money went to banks: study, "Most of the money was used to actually transfer risks from private creditors to public creditors," Rocholl said. "This means money was used to repay the private creditors by taking on more debts that were taken by private creditors. [...] Only 9.7 billion euros, according to ESMT, was directly contributed to Greece's fiscal budget or to kickstart the Greek economy. " In The Guardian's article, "Where did the Greek bailout money go?", most of the money went to the banks that lent Greece funds before the crash. Much worse is that, while Greek pension funds suffered terrible losses, €48.2billion of the bailout "was used to bail out Greek banks which had been forced to take losses, weakening their ability to protect themselves and depositors." A very miniscule amount of this bailout ended up going to the Greek Treasury to rebuild the economy. https://i.redd.it/n532icb15gy81.gif The banks had heavy influence in the situation the entire time, from the beginning of the debt crisis to the end, and considering that BCG's office in Greece had influence with the banks, it can be inferred that BCG played at least a partial role in the matter. Now, what type of influence did BCG have within Greece? Well, it was initially harder to find than Goldman Sachs, because BCG has been especially secretive with their dealings in Greece. Finding their Greek clients is like trying to find who are Citadel's 17 clients. So, I decided to take a different approach: we can find out if BCG was at least partially responsible for the events leading up to the default of Greece by understanding what their philosophical/socioeconomic positions were, and by finding that info, we can deduce what type of influence they had within banks, institutions, the government, and the overall economy. We'll start with Vassilis Antoniades, who is Partner and Managing Director of Boston Consulting Group, Athens. He is a member of the Business Advisory Council in Greece, as on the BAC page, which states that "he has been involved in the build-up of BCG Athens since early 2003." The Delphi Economic Forum also states that his focus is in wholesale banking. In a BCG publication in 2015, BCG Athens Managing Director Antoniades makes the case that Eurozone has been (and will continue to be) good for Greece. "The prophets of doom may prove to be right: this is surely a very tough deal. Its unpopularity has led some experts to continue arguing that leaving the Eurozone is the preferable course. With the exception of the leftmost- and rightmost-leaning members of the Greek political system, few of these proponents live in Greece. They ignore the fact that the vast majority of Greeks see their future as part of Europe. Polls regularly show that 65 to 70 percent of the population supports remaining in the Eurozone. A “Grexit” would permanently undermine Greece’s position in Europe, seriously limit its influence in international affairs, especially in its immediate neighborhood, and substantially negate the significant achievements that the country has registered over the last four decades with regard to economic and sociopolitical change,"-Antoniades. Greece joining the Eurozone is something BCG has been supportive of, since 2000, and even today, despite the fact that Greece only got into the Eurozone via swaps manipulation from Goldman Sachs, and Greece's debt-to-GDP ratio is over 3 times the acceptable limit of 60%, meaning that they should've never been in the Eurozone, and shouldn't continue to be in the Eurozone. As I've stated before, the Euro prevented Greece from stabilizing, due to monetary policy. Its high risk still harms Greece's economy in the long-run, yet BCG is supportive of it. BCG also published a 23 page document in 2018, where they ENCOURAGE making bankruptcies in Greece easier for businesses. Page 7: "Studies show that fear of failure is preventing Greek citizens from setting up new businesses. [...] Greek bankruptcy laws also make closing a business a costly and time-consuming endeavor; in some cases, it is punitive, without any second-chance provisions." Page 13: "The government should revamp its bankruptcy laws. The fear of failure has plagued the Greek business landscape for the past decade. The negative repercussions that result from declaring bankruptcy often deter entrepreneurs from starting a new business." This is their philosophy, and this is what we can expect their consultants in Greece have been influencing. Simply put, making the bankruptcy process easier and more lenient discourages risk aversion from businesses and incentivizes more "overleveraged and risk loving behavior", which would lead to bankruptcies. A substantial increase in bankruptcies is ultimately bad for the economy and the nation's GDP; hence, bad for Greece. This would only be good for hedge funds shorting those businesses and/or the economy. Now, in terms of money trails, it's harder to find out if there was any money laundering between BCG and institutions paying BCG to attack a country's economy/businesses, as BCG is not directly regulated. For instance, the World Economic Forum made BCG a Gatekeeper, meaning that BCG self-regulates and also has the power to "prevent or interrupt illicit financial flows from other institutions". Here's the WEF Unifying Framework. It was created by Gatekeepers (i.e. BCG and Co.) for Gatekeepers. You will find on pg. 2, par. 2, it states, "regardless of whether such assistance is provided knowingly or unknowingly, these professionals can open access to financial markets, set up complex company structures, manage shell companies, and otherwise blur the nature and origin of ill‑gotten gains. Given their central role in the global economy, this professionally diverse group of service providers is also strategically situated to interrupt or prevent illicit financial flows by exercising appropriate due diligence when providing their specialized services. While sometimes presented as “enablers” or “facilitators” of illicit activity, the reality is that much of the so‑called enabling or facilitating is unintentional. Further, the term “gatekeepers” more accurately captures the dual potential to promote or impede illicit transactions." Companies that endorsed the WEF "Unifying Framework" for Gatekeepers to give themselves self-regulatory powers include BCG, UBS, Baker McKenzie, etc. Multinational Law Firm Headquartered in Chicago, Baker McKenzie (which also got exposed by the Pandora Papers as facilitating a money laundering operation), is not only connected to BCG but also the Former Chair of the International Monetary Fund and current head of the European Central Bank, so seeing all these connections is quite surreal, but I digress. The point is that if a hedge fund wanted to use a tool (one that's not directly regulated) to carry out its will of destroying companies (and hurting economies) from the inside, Boston Consulting Group would make for strong utilization. We would have never found out about BCG, if it weren't for RC. He was tweeting tons in regard to BCG; it was clear he wanted Apes to dig into its affairs. And the fact that RC liked THIS particular tweet on April 9th about BCG secretly being Citadel (or controlled by Citadel at least), is telling. https://preview.redd.it/0nnpdkrm4gy81.png?width=588&format=png&auto=webp&s=9c33a97a63e2136fade29ebcba52e098f4674d2b Which begs the question, if BCG was trying to hurt Greece (and Greek businesses), which hedge fund (along with billionaire John Paulson and the other hedge funds that the Greek government openly accused of trying to attack their country) stood to profit from the Greek Debt Crisis? https://preview.redd.it/dmucsmxn4gy81.png?width=989&format=png&auto=webp&s=a25033146f4ed9bc910615ac5b6e2364b9a9eba9 Citadel's hedge via sovereign credit default swap spreads against Greece paid out, and news articles made him sound like some brilliant finance wizard of highly advanced intellect that can foresee the future, when in reality he and his buddies just manipulated the Greek market, damaged the economy, and profited off it. This is comparable to his work on shorting brick-and-mortar companies in the U.S, just on a macro scale. §3: The Implications With what we now know, what can be inferred? That not only have companies been manipulated and shorted for profit, but that this behavior can also be captured on the macro scale with the manipulation and shorting of entire economies supranationally. This has been seen in the past, such as in the early 90s when Soros made billions by shorting the British pound, and then having his friends deplete the reserves from the Bank of England, forcing currency devaluation and ultimately crashing the pound, damaging the economy in the process. Or, on March, 2020, when Ackman set up a hedge against the U.S market, then immediately went on national TV, scaring the public by telling them, I quote, "hell is coming," and "there's a tsunami coming", referring to the market, helping lead to a 30% flash crash of the S&P 500, netting him billions in profit. This may be why Citadel was previously banned from China during their crackdown on malicious short selling. Unlike other countries, China wasn't having it. I've also heard of similar stories (from Apes as well as news outlets) of BCG potentially meddling with other nation's economies as well, which I find compelling, and may possibly further support my findings. Here's some examples: Comment excerpt from Ape "throwawaylurker012" relating to his DD on SHFs shorting Argentina's economy: https://preview.redd.it/w2zmdtsp4gy81.png?width=1440&format=png&auto=webp&s=5b65ef75cf39fd8b13095fb2490acfe5bbe82c4d "Kalsitu" discovers BCG meddling in Spain. https://preview.redd.it/7k9r88oq4gy81.png?width=698&format=png&auto=webp&s=b39d2d6d45d62740f44295c4d2066e152f10f509 "KakelaTron" draws connections between Sri Lankan debt and BCG. https://preview.redd.it/0t7cyawr4gy81.png?width=681&format=png&auto=webp&s=99152795e5b7f41bc7544722a218ac9ea97bf98f I've also noticed Goldman Sachs' name keeps showing up alongside BCG in the other "affairs", which I find interesting as well. Apes "JustBeingPunny" and "CruxHub" were previously shadowbanned for posting DD related to BCG, so I'm not entirely sure what will end up happening to this post, but I do believe we're definitely onto something. Otherwise, there'd have been no reason for BCG to want to censor any research relating to their inconspicuous dealings in domestic and foreign affairs. A good takeaway from this, though, is that post-MOASS, it may not be only generational wealth that you'll achieve, but also a spot in the history books, and the knowledge that you've essentially become a hero to countless lives around the globe, protecting them from economic parasites and malicious shortsellers that have tried to profit off the socioeconomic hardship of millions, just like in Greece. TL;DR: A preponderance of the evidence suggests that Goldman Sachs as well as BCG were at least partially responsible for the events leading to the default of Greece, and that Citadel profited in the process. This is amply evident from Goldman Sach's ledgerdemain with the Greek government, in addition to the sovereign credit default swaps they purchased behind Greece's backs. This is also evident from BCG's wholesale banking connections in Greece since 2000, and their influence of Greece remaining in the Eurozone (which led to the default), in addition to a push for incentivizing Greek bankruptcies, etc., all while helping Citadel rake in profits off swaps against Greece. Further connections suggest that Greece wasn't the only country this happened to, and that other nation's economies may have been susceptible to manipulation and malicious short attacks for profit. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Edit: u/ throwawaylurker012 posted a DD not long after I made this one, which goes over how Citadel sat on the CDDC, the secretive board that determined if Greece defaulted, as well as when the credit default swaps paid out. I wanted to share it here, as it further supplements the DD. |
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