As the Fed begins their journey into a deflationary blizzard, they are beginning to break markets across the globe. As the World Reserve Currency, over 60% of all international trade is done in Dollars, and USDs are the largest Foreign Exchange (Forex) holdings by far for global central banks. Now all foreign currencies are crashing against the Dollar as the vicious feedback loops of Triffin’s Dilemma come home to roost. The Dollar Milkshake has begun.
The Fed, knowingly or unknowingly, has walked into this trap- and now they find themselves caught underneath the Sword of Damocles, with no way out…
​
Sword Of Damocles
--------------------------
“The famed “sword of Damocles” dates back to an ancient moral parable popularized by the Roman philosopher Cicero in his 45 B.C. book “Tusculan Disputations.” Cicero’s version of the tale centers on Dionysius II, a tyrannical king who once ruled over the Sicilian city of Syracuse during the fourth and fifth centuries B.C.
Though rich and powerful, Dionysius was supremely unhappy. His iron-fisted rule had made him many enemies, and he was tormented by fears of assassination—so much so that he slept in a bedchamber surrounded by a moat and only trusted his daughters to shave his beard with a razor.
As Cicero tells it, the king’s dissatisfaction came to a head one day after a court flatterer named Damocles showered him with compliments and remarked how blissful his life must be. “Since this life delights you,” an annoyed Dionysius replied, “do you wish to taste it yourself and make a trial of my good fortune?” When Damocles agreed, Dionysius seated him on a golden couch and ordered a host of servants wait on him. He was treated to succulent cuts of meat and lavished with scented perfumes and ointments.
Damocles couldn’t believe his luck, but just as he was starting to enjoy the life of a king, he noticed that Dionysius had also hung a razor-sharp sword from the ceiling. It was positioned over Damocles’ head, suspended only by a single strand of horsehair.
From then on, the courtier’s fear for his life made it impossible for him to savor the opulence of the feast or enjoy the servants. After casting several nervous glances at the blade dangling above him, he asked to be excused, saying he no longer wished to be so fortunate.”
—---------------
Damocles’ story is a cautionary tale of being careful of what you wish for- Those who strive for power often unknowingly create the very systems that lead to their own eventual downfall. The Sword is often used as a metaphor for a looming danger; a hidden trap that can obliterate those unaware of the great risk that hegemony brings.
Heavy lies the head which wears the crown.
​
There are several Swords of Damocles hanging over the world today, but the one least understood and least believed until now is Triffin’s Dilemma, which lays the bedrock for the Dollar Milkshake Theory. I’ve already written extensively about Triffin’s Dilemma around a year ago in Part 1.5 and Part 4.3 of my Dollar Endgame Series, but let’s recap again.
Here’s a great summary- read both sides of the dilemma:
​
Triffin's Dilemma Summarized

(Seriously, stop here and go back and read Part 1.5 and Part 4.3 Do it!)

​
Essentially, Triffin noted that there was a fundamental flaw in the system: by virtue of the fact that the United States is a World Reserve Currency holder, the global financial system has built in GLOBAL demand for Dollars. No other fiat currency has this.
How is this demand remedied? With supply of course! The United States thus is forced to run current account deficits - meaning it must send more dollars out into the world than it receives on a net basis. This has several implications, which again, I already outlined- but I will list in summary format below:

1. The United States has to be a net importer, ie it must run trade deficits, in order to supply the world with dollars. Remember, dollars and goods are opposite sides of the same equation, so a greater trade deficits means that more dollars are flowing out to the world.
2. (This will devastate US domestic manufacturing, causing political/social/economic issues at home.)
3. These dollars flow outwards into the global economy, and are picked up by institutions in a variety of ways.
4. First, foreign central banks will have to hold dollars as Foreign Exchange Reserves to defend their currency in case of attack on the Forex markets. This was demonstrated during the Asian Financial Crisis of 1997-98, when the Thai Baht, Malaysian Ringgit, and Philippine Peso (among other East Asian currencies) plunged against the Dollar. Their central banks attempted to defend the pegs but they failed.
5. Second, companies will need Dollars for trade- as the USD makes up over 60% of global trade volume, and has the deepest and most liquid forex market by far, even small firms that need to transact cross border trade will have to acquire USDs in order to operate. When South Africa and Chile trade, they don’t want to use Mexican Pesos or Korean Won- they want Dollars.
6. Foreign governments need dollars. There are several countries already who have adopted the Dollar as a replacement for their own currency- Ecuador and Zimbabwe being prime examples. There’s a full list here.
7. Third world governments that don’t fully adopt dollars as their own currencies will still use them to borrow. Argentina has 70% of it’s debt denominated in dollars and Indonesia has 30%, for example. Dollar-denominated debt will build up overseas.

The example I gave in Part 1.5 was that of Liberia, a small West African Nation looking to enter global trade. Needing to hold dollars as part of their exchange reserves, the Liberian Central Bank begins buying USDs on the open market. The process works in a similar fashion for large Liberian export companies.
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Dollar Recycling
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Essentially, they print their own currency to buy Dollars. Wanting to earn interest on this massive cash hoard when it isn’t being used, they buy Treasuries and other US debt securities to get a yield.
As their domestic economy grows, their need and dependence on the Dollar grows as well. Their Central Bank builds up larger and larger hoards of Treasuries and Dollars. The entire thesis is that during times of crisis, they can sell the Treasuries for USD, and use the USDs to buy back their own currency on the market- supporting its value and therefore defending the peg.
This buying pressure on USDs and Treasuries confers a massive benefit to the United States-
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The Exorbitant Privilege
​
This buildup of excess dollars ends up circulating overseas in banks, trade brokers, central banks, governments and companies. These overseas dollars are called the Eurodollar system- a 2016 research paper estimated the size to be around $13.8 Trillion USD. This system is not under official Federal Reserve jurisdiction so it is difficult to get accurate numbers on its size.
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https://preview.redd.it/92wcmhdb0uq91.png?width=691&format=png&auto=webp&s=20dbaf63f75ff6f2e255fff06e6f48c03170b11b
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This means the Dollar is always artificially stronger than it should be- and during financial calamity, the dollar is a safe haven as there are guaranteed bidders.
All this dollar denominated debt paired with the global need for dollars in trade creates strong and persistent dollar demand. Demand that MUST be satisfied.
This creates systemic risk on a worldwide scale- an unforeseen Sword of Damocles that hangs above the global financial system. I’ve been trying to foreshadow this in my Dollar Endgame Series.
Triffin’s Dilemma is the basis for the Dollar Milkshake Theory posited by Brent Johnson.
​

The Dollar Milkshake

​
Milkshake of Liquidity
In 2021, Brent worked with RealVision to create a short summary of his thesis- the video can be found here. I should note that Brent has had this theory for years, dating back to 2018, when he first came on podcasts and interviews and laid out his theory (like this video, for example).
Here’s the summary below:
-----
“A giant milkshake of liquidity has been created by global central banks with the dollar as its key ingredient - but if the dollar moves higher this milkshake will be sucked into the US creating a vicious spiral that could quickly destabilize financial markets.
The US dollar is the bedrock of the world's financial system. It greases the wheels of global commerce and exchange- the availability of dollars, cost of dollars, and the level of the dollar itself each can have an outsized impact on economies and investment opportunities.
But more important than the absolute level or availability of dollars is the rate of change in the level of the dollar. If the level of the dollar moves too quickly and particularly if the level rises too fast then problems start popping up all over the place (foreign countries begin defaulting).
Today however many people are convinced that both the role of the Dollar is diminishing and the level of the dollar will only decline. People think that the US is printing so many dollars that the world will be awash with the greenback causing the value of the dollar to fall.
Now it's true that the US is printing a lot of dollars – but other countries are also printing their own currencies in similar amounts so in theory it should even out in terms of value.
But the hidden issue is the difference in demand. Remember the global financial system is built on the US dollar which means even if they don't want them everybody still needs them and if you need something you don't really have much choice. (See DXY Index):
​
DXY Index
​
Although many countries like China are trying to reduce their reliance on dollar transactions this will be a very slow transition. In the meantime the risks of a currency or sovereign debt crisis continue to rise.
But now countries like China and Japan need dollars to buy copper from Australia so the Chinese and the Japanese owe dollars and Australia is getting paid in dollars.
Europe and Asia currently doing very limited amount of non-dollar transactions for oil so they still need dollars to buy oil from saudi and again dollars get hoovered up on both sides
Asia and Europe need dollars to buy soybeans from Brazil. This pulls in yet more dollars - everybody needs dollars for trade invoices, central bank currency reserves and servicing massive cross-border dollar denominated debts of governments and corporations outside the USA.
And the dollar-denominated debt is key- if they don't service their debts or walk away from their dollar debts their funding costs rise putting great financial pressure on their domestic economies. Not only that, it can lead to a credit contraction and a rapid tightening of dollar supply.
The US is happy with the reliance on the greenback they own the settlement system which benefits the US banks who process all the dollars and act as gatekeepers to the Dollar system they police and control the access to the system which benefits the US military machine where defense spending is in excess of any other country so naturally the US benefits from the massive volumes of dollar usage.
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https://preview.redd.it/yq1f1anq0uq91.png?width=1140&format=png&auto=webp&s=27447e2acec884848a5c70ab3651820e487fc0f3
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Other countries have naturally been grumbling about being held hostage to the situation but the choices are limited. What it does mean is that dollars need to be constantly sucked out of the USA because other countries all over the world need them to do business and of course the more people there are who need and want those dollars the more is the pressure on the price of dollars to go up.
In fact, global demand is so high that the supply of dollars is just not enough to keep up, even with the US continually printing money. This is why we haven't seen consistently rising US inflation despite so many QE and stimulus programs since the global financial crisis in 2008.
But, the real risk comes when other economies start to slow down or when the US starts to grow relative to the other economies. If there is relatively less economic activity elsewhere in the world then there are fewer dollars in global circulation for others to use in their daily business and of course if there are fewer in circulation then the price goes up as people chase that dwindling source of dollars.
Which is terrible for countries that are slowing down because just when they are suffering economically they still need to pay for many goods in dollars and they still need to service their debts which of course are often in dollars too.
​
So the vortex begins or as we like to say the dollar milkshake- As the level of the dollar rises the rest of the world needs to print more and more of its own currency to then convert to dollars to pay for goods and to service its dollar debt this means the dollar just keeps on rising in response many countries will be forced to devalue their own currencies so of course the dollar rises again and this puts a huge strain on the global system.
(see the charts below:)
JPY/USD
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GBP/USD
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EUUSD
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To make matters worse in this environment the US looks like an attractive safe haven so the US ends up sucking in the capital from the rest of the world-the dollar rises again. Pretty soon you have a full-scale sovereign bond and currency crisis.
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https://preview.redd.it/72nlain01uq91.png?width=1141&format=png&auto=webp&s=cbaa411acc88acb3849949d84a36624d75d6cfc4
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We're now into that final napalm run that sees the dollar and dollar assets accelerate even higher and this completely undermines global markets. Central banks try to prevent disorderly moves, but the global markets are bigger and the momentum unstoppable once it takes hold.
And that is the risk that very few people see coming but that everyone should have a hedge against - when the US sucks up the dollar milkshake, bad things are going to happen.
Worst of all there's no alternatives- what are you going to use-- Chinese Yuan? Japanese Yen? the Euro??
Now, like it or not we're stuck with a dollar underpinning the global financial system.”
—-------------
Why is it playing out now, in real time?? It all leads back to a tweet I made in a thread on September 16th.
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Tweet Thread about the Yuan
​
The Fed, rushing to avoid a financial crisis in March 2020, printed trillions. This spurred inflation, which they then swore to fight. Thus they began hiking interest rates on March 16th, and began Quantitative Tightening this summer.
QE had stopped- No new dollars were flowing out into a system which has a constant demand for them. Worse yet, they were hiking completely blind-
Although the Fed is very far behind the curve, (meaning they are hiking far too late to really combat inflation)- other countries are even farther behind!
Japan has rates currently at 0.00- 0.25%, and the Eurozone is at 1.25%. These central banks have barely begun hiking, and some even swear to keep them at the zero-bound. By hiking domestic interest rates above foreign ones, the Fed is incentivizing what are called carry trades.
Since there is a spread between the Yen and the Dollar in terms of interest rates, it thus is profitable for traders to borrow in Yen (shorting it essentially) and buy Dollars, which can earn 2.25% interest. The spread would be around 2%.
DXY rises, and the Yen falls, in a vicious feedback loop.
Thus capital flows out of Japan, and into the US. The US sucks up the Dollar Milkshake, draining global liquidity. As I’ve stated before, this has seriously dangerous implications for the global financial system.
For those of you who don’t believe this could be foreseen, check out the ending paragraphs of Dollar Endgame Part 4.3 - “Economic Warfare and the End of Bretton Woods” published February 16, 2022:
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Triffin's Dilemma is the Final Nail
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What I’ve been attempting to do in my work is restate Triffins’ Dilemma, and by extension the Dollar Milkshake, in other terms- to come at the issue from different angles.
Currently the Fed is not printing money. Which is thus causing havoc in global trade (seen in the currency markets) because not enough dollars are flowing out to satisfy demand.
The Fed must therefore restart QE unless it wants to spur a collapse on a global scale. Remember, all these foreign countries NEED to buy, borrow and trade in a currency that THEY CANNOT PRINT!
We do not have enough time here to go in depth on the Yen, Yuan, Pound or the Euro- all these currencies have different macro factors and trade factors which affect their currencies to a large degree. But the largest factor by FAR is Triffin’s Dilemma + the Dollar Milkshake, and their desperate need for dollars. That is why basically every fiat currency is collapsing versus the Dollar.
The Fed, knowingly or not, is basically in charge of the global financial system. They may shout, “We raise rates in the US to fight inflation, global consequences be damned!!” - But that’s a hell of a lot more difficult to follow when large G7 countries are in the early stages of a full blown currency crisis.
The most serious implication is that the Fed is responsible for supplying dollars to everyone. When they raise rates, they trigger a margin call on the entire world. They need to bail them out by supplying them with fresh dollars to stabilize their currencies.
In other words, the Fed has to run the loosest and most accommodative monetary policy worldwide- they must keep rates as low as possible, and print as much as possible, in order to keep the global financial system running. If they don’t do that, sovereigns begin to blow up, like Japan did last week and like England did on Wednesday.
And if the world’s financial system implodes, they must bail out not only the United States, but virtually every global central bank. This is the Sword of Damocles. The money needed for this would be well in the dozens of trillions.
The Dollar Endgame Approaches…
—-------------------------------------------------------------
​

Q&A

(Many of you have been messaging me with questions, rebuttals or comments. I’ll do my best to answer some of the more poignant ones here.)

—-----
Q: I’ve been reading your work, you keep saying the dollar is going to fall in value, and be inflated away. Now you’re switching sides and joining the dollar bull faction. Seems like you don’t know what you’re talking about!
A: You’re mixing up my statements. When I discuss the dollar losing value, I am referring to it falling in ABSOLUTE value, against goods and services produced in the real economy. This is what is called inflation. I made this call in 2021, and so far, it has proven right as inflation has accelerated.
The dollar gaining strength ONLY applies to foreign currency exchange markets (Forex)- remember, DXY, JPYUSD, and other currency pairs are RELATIVE indicators of value. Therefore, both JPY and USD can be falling in real terms (inflation) but if one is falling faster, then that one will lose value relative to the other. Also, Forex markets are correlated with, but not an exact match, for inflation.
I attempted to foreshadow the entire dollar bull thesis in the conclusion of Part 1 of the Dollar Endgame, posted well over a year ago-
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Unraveling of the Currency Markets
​
I did not give an estimate on when this would happen, or how long DXY would be whipsawed upwards, because I truly do not know.
I do know that eventually the Fed will likely open up swap lines, flooding the Eurodollar market with fresh greenbacks and easing the dollar short squeeze. Then selling pressure will resume on the dollar. They would only likely do this when things get truly calamitous- and we are on our way towards getting there.
The US bond market is currently in dire straits, which matches the prediction of spiking interest rates. The 2yr Treasury is at 4.1%, it was at 3.9% just a few days ago. Only a matter of time until the selloff gets worse.
—------
Q: Foreign Central banks can find a way out. They can just use their reserves to buy back their own currency.
Sure, they can try that. It’ll work for a while- but what happens once they run out of reserves, which basically always happens? I can’t think of a time in financial history that a country has been able to defend a currency peg against a sustained attack.
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Global Forex Reserves
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They’ll run out of bullets, like they always do, and basically the only option left will be to hike interest rates, to attract capital to flow back into their country. But how will they do that with global debt to GDP at 356%? If all these countries do that, they will cause a global depression on a scale never seen before.
Britain, for example, has a bit over $100B of reserves. That provides maybe a few months of cover in the Forex markets until they’re done.
Furthermore, you are ignoring another vicious feedback loop. When the foreign banks sell US Treasuries, this drives up yields in the US, which makes even more capital flow to the US! This weakens their currency even further.
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FX Feedback Loop
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To add insult to injury, this increases US Treasury borrowing costs, which means even if the Fed completely ignores the global economy imploding, the US will pay much more in interest. We will reach insolvency even faster than anyone believes.
The 2yr Treasury bond is above 4%- with $31T of debt, that means when we refinance we will pay $1.24 Trillion in interest alone. Who's going to buy that debt? The only entity with a balance sheet large enough to absorb that is the Fed. Restarting QE in 3...2…1…
—----
Q: I live in England. With the Pound collapsing, what can I do? What will happen from here? How will the governments respond?
England, and Europe in general, is in serious trouble. You guys are currently facing a severe energy crisis stemming from Russia cutting off Nord Stream 1 in early September and now with Nord Stream 2 offline due to a mysterious leak, energy supplies will be even more tight.
Not to mention, you have a pretty high debt to GDP at 95%. Britain is a net importer, and is still running government deficits of £15.8 billion (recorded in Q1 2022). Basically, you guys are the United States without your own large scale energy and defense sector, and without Empire status and a World Reserve Currency that you once had.
The Pound will almost certainly continue falling against the Dollar. The Bank of England panicked on Wednesday in reaction to a $100M margin call on British pension funds, and now has begun buying long dated (10yr) gilts, or government bonds.
They’re doing this as inflation is spiking there even worse than the US, and the nation faces a currency crisis as the Pound is nearing parity with the Dollar.
​
BOE announces bond-buying scheme (9/28/22)
​
I will not sugarcoat it, things will get rough. You need to hold cash, make sure your job, business, or investments are secure (ie you have cashflow) and hunker down. Eliminate any unnecessary purchases. If you can, buy USDs as they will likely continue to rise and will hold value better than your own currency.
If Parliament goes through with more tax cuts, that will only make the fiscal situation worse and result in more borrowing, and thus more money printing in the end.
—----
Q: What does this mean for Gamestop? For the domestic US economy?
Gamestop will continue to operate as I am sure they have been- investing in growth and expanding their Web3 platform.
Fiat is fundamentally broken. This much is clear- we need a new financial system not based on flawed 16th fractional banking principles or “trust me bro” financial intermediaries.
My hope is that they are at the forefront of a new financial system which does not require centralized authorities or custodians- one where you truly own your assets, and debasement is impossible.
I haven’t really written about GME extensively because it’s been covered so well by others, and I don’t feel I have that much to add.
As for the US economy, we are still in a deep recession, no matter what the politicians say- and it will get worse. But our economic troubles, at least in the short term (6 months) will not be as severe as the rest of the world due to the aforementioned Dollar Milkshake.
The debt crisis is still looming, midterms are approaching, and the government continues to deficit spend as if there’s no tomorrow.
As the global monetary system unravels, yields will spike, the deleveraging will get worse, and our dollar will get stronger. The fundamental factors continue to deteriorate.
I’ve covered the US enough so I'll leave it there.
—------
Q: Did you know about the Dollar Milkshake Theory before recently? What did you think of it?
Of course I knew about it, I’ve been following Brent Johnson since he appeared on RealVision and Macrovoices. He laid out the entire theory in 2018 in a long form interview here. I listened to it maybe a couple times, and at the time I thought he was right- I just didn’t know how right he was.
Brent and I have followed each other and been chatting a little on Twitter- his handle is SantiagoAuFund, I highly recommend you give him a follow.
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Twitter Chat
​
I’ve never met him in person, but from what I can see, his predictions are more accurate than almost anyone else in finance. Again, all credit to him- he truly understands the global monetary system on a fundamental level.
I believed him when he said the dollar would rally- but the speed and strength of the rally has surprised me. I’ve heard him predict DXY could go to 150, mirroring the massive DXY squeeze post the 1970s stagflation. He could very easily be right- and the absolute chaos this would mean for global trade and finance are unfathomable.
​
History of DXY
​
—----------
Q: The Pound and Euro are falling just because of the energy crisis there. That's it!
Why is the Yen falling then? How about the Yuan? Those countries are not currently undergoing an energy crisis. Let’s review the year to date performance of most fiat currencies vs the dollar:
Japanese Yen: -20.31%
Chinese Yuan: -10.79%
South African Rand: -10.95%
English Pound: -18.18%
Euro: -14.01%
Swiss Franc: -6.89%
South Korean Won: -16.73%
Indian Rupee: -8.60%
Turkish Lira: -27.95%
There are only a handful of currencies positive against the dollar, the most notable being the Russian Ruble and the Brazilian Real- two countries which have massive commodity resources and are strong exporters. In an inflationary environment, hard assets do best, so this is no surprise.
—------
Q: What can the average person do to prepare? What are you doing?
Obligatory this is NOT financial advice
This is an extremely difficult question, as there are so many factors. You need to ask yourself, what is your financial situation like? How much disposable income do you have? What things could you cut back on? I can’t give you specific ideas without knowing your situation.
Personally, I am building up savings and cutting down on expenses. I’m getting ready for a severe recession/depression in the US and trying to find ways to increase my income, maybe a side hustle or switching jobs.
I am holding my GME and not selling- I still have some shares in Fidelity that I need to DRS (I know, sorry, I was procrastinating).
For the next few months, I believe there will be accelerating deflation as interest rates spike and the debt cycle begins to unwind. But like I’ve stated before, this will lead us towards a second Great Depression very rapidly, and to avoid the deflationary blizzard the Fed will restart QE on a scale never seen before.
QE Infinity. This will be the impetus for even worse inflation- 25%+ by this time next year.
It’s hard to prepare for this, and easy to feel hopeless. It’s important to know that we have been through monetary crises before, and society did not devolve into a zombie apocalypse. You are not alone, and we will get through this together.
It’s also important to note that we are holding the most lopsided investment opportunity of a generation. Any money you put in there can be grown by orders of magnitude.
We are at the end of the Central Bankers game- and although it will be painful, we will rid the world of them, I believe, and build a new financial system based on blockchains which will disintermediate the institutions. They have everything to lose.
—------
Q: I want to learn more, where can I do? What can I do to keep up to date with everything?
You can start by reading books, listening to podcasts, and checking the news to stay abreast of developments. I have a book list linked at the end of the Dollar Endgame posts.
I’ll be covering the central bank clown show on Twitter, you can follow me there if you like. I’ll also include links to some of my favorite macro people below:

• Peruvian Bull (my only account)
• Lyn Alden
• Luke Gromen
• Brent Johnson
• Raoul Pal
• Andreas Steno Larsen
• Jeffrey Snider

I’m still finishing up the finale for Dollar Endgame- I should have it out soon. I’m also writing an addendum to the series which is purely Q&A to answer questions and concerns. Sorry for the wait.
—-------------------
Nothing on this Post constitutes investment advice, performance data or any recommendation that any security, portfolio of securities, investment product, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

Disclaimer: "maybe we are all living in a simulation." -FCM
I wasn't going to post this but then I noticed something come up today and thought to myself well shit, maybe it would have been less tinfoil-ish had I posted this the other day. So yeah, if you don't like speculation combined with possible DD then just skip this.
The post I am referring to is about the SAW game that just released on nft.gamestop.com
To give you some context, last week I started digging into BuyBuyBuyYes (still cant say cause auto-censorship), in which I made a comment then someone screenshotted it, and it found its way to the frontpage of the internet. Later in that same thread, I made this comment: https://www.reddit.com/Superstonk/comments/y5c3ax/comment/isktiuo/
If you noticed, someone awarded me 10x platinum which to me sounded like: "yo, diamond fingers this lead and hodl."
The day after my comment, RC tweets a photo of him and Icahn. Okay, maybe just dumb money luck or so I thought.
Well, I kept digging cuz diamond fingers.
Shortly after, Gamestop NFT releases a collector's pin and in it secrets.txt is discovered, but if you look back at the other Easter egg and hidden file (yes, there was another) then you'll find there were clues about BuyBuyBuyYes already in there, as posted by u/Real_Eyezz:
​
Oh look clues from 11 months ago, when did that sub get started? Jan 2021. Makes sense cause they began segregation & censorship around discussion of BuyBuyBuyYes
Alright now that you have some background info, I am going to layout what I believe has been a series of Cohencidences and is building up a crescendo that will undoubtedly unfold in epic fashion and fireworks.
Let's start from the beginning.

The Activist Investors

Do you remember the sneeze of Jan 2021? Yeah, it was 84 years ago for some. Here let me just draw your attention to this by NBA Dallas Maverick owner and Shark Tank's Mark Cuban who as many know has been in favor of apes (even if he does not publicly declare himself an activist investor). This is what he said over a year ago, u/mcuban:
​
Mark Cuban was very vocal and active in the community early 2021 (u lurking bro?)
DO THE WORK.
POWER IN NUMBERS.
Where have I heard that before? Probably cohencidence.
Fact is, Mark Cuban was one of the first to come on here and help make sense of the fiasco that happened in 2021 when nobody else gave two shits about retail traders and how we all got rug pulled when they illegally removed the buy button which still to my knowledge today: NOBODY HAS GONE TO PRISON.
Moving forward, what's the connection? You'll see.

Enter the O.G. Ape aka MSM-dubbed "Corporate Raider"

Carl Icahn was recently tweeted in a photo side-by-side with Ryan Cohen and this leads me to believe that they started working together or has been, although I like to think the later. But before I jump ahead, I want to share with you some background info about Carl Icahn:

• Dubbed corporate raider by corporate mainstream media, but really is an activist investor since mid 1970s and known for creating the "Icahn Lift," where stock value rises when he moves-in on a company usually by proxy fighting board members to clean house
• Since 1992, funded the construction of Icahn House, a 65-unit complex for homeless families in the Bronx, New York called Children's Rescue Fund
• Inspired by his daughter that works at Humane Society, he wrote a passionate letter to the board of McDonald's about making changes on who they do business with regarding how they handle the treatment of pregnant sows (female pigs) - recall that RC tweet: "Children and animals must be protected at all costs"
• Icahn has a track record of success and here's what he said in a letter to shareholders of his company on June 6, 2022:

"My activist engagements have generally produced exceptional results. To elaborate, our activist activities have created close to $1 Trillion in value for all shareholders in the aggregate who’ve held or purchased stock when we did and sold stock when we did. I believe our record unquestionably proves that holding CEOs and boards accountable to shareholders manifests great results."
This man fucks wallstreet, diamond nuts achievement unlocked.
And $1 TRILLION dollars produced for shareholders? Diamond hands, OG ape right here.
I cahn see why Ryan Cohen likes this guy, I like him too.
Okay, now to explore a side-quest.

The Mondelez Spin-Off

I will summarize this section and come back to it later as it relates to that other company RC recently bought in and still has his hand-picked board members and executive team operating.
What is Mondelez? A snack company that did a spin-off, where a company sells off a subsidiary company, is a tax-free write off to parent company, and awards free shares to shareholders of parent company. The deal involved Kraft Heinz, parent company, which spun off Mondelez to focus on the International market (credit u/Real_Eyezz) but more importantly the deal involved Yang Xu, global treasurer and an executive committee at Kraft Heinz, and also on the board of Gamestop since June 2021 (credit u/iamhighnlow).
Talking about spin-offs, kinda reminds me of that letter RC sent to a certain board suggesting to spin-off and sell its subsidiary BuyBuyBABY company.
I wonder where he got that idea? We'll find out soon.
​
Mondelez spin-off and Yang Xu, Gamestop board member
Now back to the main storyline.

Activist Investors That Go Way Back

In 2008, Carl Icahn and Mark Cuban joined forces to proxy battle and remove board members from Yahoo! Inc as detailed here. Icahn wanted to clean house and remove all 10 board members but was only able to replace a few, needless to say, he made significant changes.
(Cleaning house? Reminds me of original Gamestop board and BuyBuyBuyYes board activist takeover)
Again, in 2010, Cuban and Icahn began a hostile takeover of Lionsgate film studios (the company that just released SAW game on Gamestop NFT marketplace). Things got heated during negotiations and Mark Cuban unsatisfied with how things were going agreed to Tender offer, or sell his 5.3% stake of shares to Icahn already with 19% stake and with additional shareholders, eventually bringing it to 33.2% outstanding shares. What's interesting about the Tendie offer, is that it was presented by Perella Weinberg Partners (more about them later), a law firm which specializes in Mergers & Acquisitions, according to this press release by Lionsgate on April 20, 2010.
Lionsgate was struggling with debt (perhaps someone stepped on shit, ew...) and wanted to merge with MGM studios, a rival company, but Icahn said NO - bad deal and it didn't happen. 3 years later, Icahn exited Lionsgate, broke-even on cost-basis, and perhaps getting involved was a good thing because the studio is still standing and about to get filthy rich partnering with my favorite company.
And it seems to be working out with one of Lionsgate's intellectual property: KICK-ASS' John Romita is already on Gamestop NFT marketplace and I'm sure more like him will join soon (or already have).
Back to Mark Cuban: someone who is very familiar with blockchain technology and digital assets like NFTs (he's been minting since 2021). He understands what the real value of NFTs (non-fungible tokens) as a digital asset can be and has been running experimental tests by combining NFTs with Dallas Maverick's NBA tickets. He even owns an NFT company.
Moreover, I believe Carl Icahn has come to a similar conclusion. When asked about the crypt0currency space, Icahn admitted he might invest heavily into digital assets. On May 27, 2021, Icahn said the following on Bloomberg about digital assets and meme stonks:

"I mean, a big way for us would be, you know, $1 billion, $1.5 billion," he said in an interview, adding, "I'm not going to say exactly."
[...]
"I don't think Reddit and Robinhood and those guys are necessarily bad, I think they do serve a purpose," he said.
Link - https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/news/carl-icahn-cryptocurrency-investment-1-billion-digital-assets-bitcoin-skeptic-2021-5-1030470155?op=1

Let me get this straight, Carl Icahn knows about Reddit, Robinhood, and the value of digital assets then goes as far as to say he is willing to invest up to $1.5 Billion?
My MGGA, BULLISH!
​
MGGA = Make Gamestop Great Again, or Microsoft, Gamestop, Google, Apple aka the FAANG of Metaverse / Web 3.0
Let's keep going.

Prelude to MOASS

On October 16, 2016, Icahn coined the term MOASS, 6 years ago, as of 10/17/22. He squeezed Bill Ackman's shorts for $1 Billion by locking up 26% of Herbalife by direct registering the shares in his name and not allowing shares to be loaned out (kind of like DRS with Computershare).
Six years ago last week, "Mother of All Short Squeezes" - MOASS was coined and on that same day RC tweeted a photo of him and Carl Icahn.
Every diamond handed ape knows a squeeze is coming (short interest easily over 1,000% even if FINRA confirmed 226% minimum). It will be marvelous and Icahn loves a good squeeze, just Acksomebody.
Cohencidentally, RC previously tweeted this on the same day as Carl Icahn's birthday - February 16:
​
Corporate Raider x Activist Investor

Enter The Whales Backing Gamestop

For some time, many have wondered why has no whale come to save the day?
I believe they have already moved in, a long time ago. Perhaps through indirect channels by purchasing $GME with offshores, family offices, etc. or by supporting Gamestop through strategic alliances and partnerships.
Now, I want to draw your attention to some confirmed whales.
First, the #3 richest man in the world Bernard Arnault, CEO of LVHM - Moet Hennessey Louis Vuitton, the world’s largest luxury goods company.
​
From Investopedia
LVHM is a direct partner with L Catterton.
L Catterton directly funds Dragonfly, a company that buys ecommerce brands and grows them, which Ryan Cohen is a member of the board.
For those in the back, L Catterton is a well-funded private equity conglomerate spanning across multiple continents in North America, South America, Europe, and Asia -- can you say GMERICA(S)?
Here, from the official website:

"In January of 2016, Catterton, the leading consumer-focused private equity firm, LVMH, the world leader in high-quality products, and Groupe Arnault, the family holding company of Bernard Arnault, partnered to create L Catterton. The partnership combined Catterton's existing North American and Latin American private equity operations with LVMH and Groupe Arnault's existing European and Asian private equity and real estate operations, resulting in the largest, diversified consumer-dedicated private equity firm in the world."
Link - https://www.lcatterton.com/lvmh-relationship.html

Read that last part and let it sink in because to me, that sounds like a conglomerate whale and one that is whale-financed.
And if that doesn't get your tits jacked, just recall one of Gamestop NFT creators: u/cybercrewnft teaser: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R6B8KuSj1Ik
​
Inside the METAVERSE with LVHM plus other major brands - oh look, Apple too (credit u/HealsOnWheals)

GMERICA: The Dream Team

Now to wrap things up, BuyBuyBuyYes is at the center of this play. (insert always has been meme)
Let's start with a tweet from the chairman:
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https://preview.redd.it/py7546tqixv91.png?width=604&format=png&auto=webp&s=8b6852c9818333d93cce0901ef3f87e9dcdea6c8
When asked about the investing style between Warren Buffet and Carl Icahn on March 22, 2022, Icahn states:

I think we’re to a certain extent in a different business with Warren. I’m an activist,” Icahn said. “I look for a company that’s, in my mind, way undervalued [...], and there’s something I can do about it. That’s what I enjoy doing. That’s why I come to work every day.”
Link - https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/22/carl-icahn-on-how-his-investment-style-differs-from-warren-buffett.html

​
Do the work (Mark Cuban), Come to work (Icahn), Born to work (RC - March 31, 22)
Wow, work is so sexy. (Cohencidentally, another RC tweet)
Now, let's tie it all together.
Starting with Dragonfly, a privately-owned venture capitalist fund that buys ecommerce brands then places its members within the newly acquired company to scale and grow it. What's interesting about Dragonfly is that most of its team members are ex-Wayfair employees with deep expertise in home goods and retail furniture. (See where this is going?)
Next, re-visiting L Catterton (a whale-financed company), they conducted a market survey and discovered a massive emerging market in China after ending its 2 child policy, which creates huge opportunity for maternity and children at tier 1 and tier 2 cities. (credit u/Movingday1 for Catterton study)
​
L Catterton study: https://www.lcatterton.com/pdf/2021-LC-Crisis_or_Opportunity.pdf
Furthermore, Patty Wu was hired to head the baby division at BuyBuyBuyYes and previously she was Chief Commercial Officer for Honest Company, a brand owned by L Catterton.
Do you see the vested interest of L Catterton for da BABY?
Do you see the vested interested of the #3 richest man in the world who owns LVHM in partnership with L Catterton?
Are you starting to see how Dragonfly, the venture capitalist fund that Ryan Cohen is member of the board and has an interest too?
(Almost there, promise)
We know for a fact that Gamestop's stock price is being suppressed, and that swaps are involved to prevent this rocket from flying (u/criand DD on TRS or the smooth brain edition).
On November 2, 2021, BuyBuyBuyYes initiated a stock buyback which caused its stock price to soar up to 91% after-hours and for No reason, on Zero news, AND after market-hours which most retailers do not buy - Gamestop's stock price also soared.
​
Total Return Swaps: one goes up, then they all go up and vice-versa - kinda of like today
Now that you know the relation of the two stocks, then you probably have figured out what Ryan Cohen is really up to.
"The last time people were excited to see me" - picture of baby sonogram, tweeted RC.

GMERICA: "Born to work"

Let's go back one more time to Mondelez about the spin-off and about RC's letter to a board about a subsidiary BABY spin-off. Then top it off with RC Ventures LLC's placement for 3 new board members who specialize in Mergers & Acquisitions.
Following that, BuyBuyBuyYes retains one of the world's elite law firm specializing in restructuring and M&A, Kirkland & Ellis, to help prepare the accounting books and review the debt notes that has plagued the company and is oddly reminiscent of u/thabat's cellar boxing DD.
Aaand fast-forward to today, it sets the stage, beginning with Perella Weinberg Partners.
(Did you forget their involvement? Carl Icahn utilized them to make a TENDIE offer with Lionsgate)
​
Restructuring the debt notes to escape bankruptcy and ending the cellar boxing
With the debt notes restructured for BuyBuyBuyYes, it now makes the company attractive for a whale-financed buyer to swoop in, make a tendie offer (subject to shareholder's approval), and take over. I can guess one international conglomerate that might want da BABY plus the kitchen sink.
How do I know there might be a tendie offer? It's explicitly stated multiple times on BuyBuyBuyYes' S-4 form (ctrl+F tender offer).
At this point, I'd like for you to blink, think, and take a deep breath.
You might be wondering if da BABY gets spun-off, where does GMERICA come into play? Great question because I don't know but I have some ideas.
I mean, GMERICA is born to work.
There are multiple M&A specialists on every side: board members inside that company, members outside that company, and members involved with Gamestop, Dragonfly, and partners.
If there ever existed a super squad of GMERICAN M&A specialists then I think this would it.
I believe Gamestop will transform into GMERICA and that Carl Icahn will invest into it for digital assets (possibly up to $1.5 Billion). Although it may not be Gamestop itself, but perhaps Gamestop NFT which if you think about is a crappy name, but GMERICA is a pretty awesome replacement. (perhaps RC thinking about a double spin-off for wombo combo)
So why do I think this could happen?
Another clue has appeared with the changing of permanent corporate addresses, which for the first time in its history, just happened:
​
BuyBuyBuyYes and Gamestop changed to CT Corporation System
What is CT Corporation System? It's owned by Wolters Kluwer which provides registered agent services, has 185-year legacy and used by 70% of Fortune 500 companies. They are under an umbrella that has a multitude of services including assistance with legal compliance in mergers and acquisitions among other things.
You could say things are getting pretty serious.
So how will GMERICA debut?
One guess might involve a Reverse Morris Trust (RMT). This would involve a spin-off of a "subsidiary" not da BABY, but as I pointed out above. The shareholders of this spin-off, that means those who Directly Registered Shares (DRS) of the parent company ($GME) would receive FREE shares from the spin-off in the newly formed GMERICA company and it would be a tax-free event.
Here from Investopedia about RMT:

The RMT starts with a parent company looking to sell assets to a third-party company. The parent company then creates a subsidiary, and that subsidiary and the third-party company merge to create an unrelated company. The unrelated company then issues shares to the original parent company's shareholders. If those shareholders control at least 50.1% of the voting right and economic value in the unrelated company, the RMT is complete. The parent company has effectively transferred the assets, tax-free, to the third-party company.
The key feature to preserve the tax-free status of a RMT is that after its formation stockholders of the original parent company own at least 50.1% of the value and voting rights of the combined or merged firm. This makes the RMT only attractive for third-party companies that are about the same size or smaller than the spun-off subsidiary.

Okay, so a third-party company like RC Ventures LLC (RCV)?
With a subsidiary spun-off like Gamestop NFT?
Then RCV and Gamestop NFT merging to create an unrelated (new tech) company like GMERICA?
And ownership of original parent company with at least 50.1% of value and voting rights by DRS hodlers?
Lastly, third-party company like RCV that is same size or smaller than spun-off company? I mean he did sell all his BuyBuyBuyYes shares so no conflict of interest there.
Kinda sounds like RC Ventures could become GMERICA.
And then there's that tweet RC posted about a tombstone, "RYAN COHEN RIP DUMBASS."

Conclusion - GMERICA: The GameStop

Larry Cheng, a board member of Gamestop, once tweeted:

It feels like we are headed to two different financial markets - the traditional one where institutional support is the driver and a decentralized one where community support is the driver. When these two worlds meet in the same asset, there will be fireworks.
Link - https://twitter.com/larryvc/status/1463670492800421897

Then I was reminded of this Direct Public Offering (DPO), which is entirely possible with Gamestop's partnership with FTX for tokenized-stocks.
GMERICA goes public with DPO via FTX? Wow, that would be a lotta assets and fireworks.
Digital assets are so hot right now.
Anyways, I look forward to how this ultimately plays out and I need to rest, "its brain consuming" is an understatement.
This is a once in a lifetime opportunity.
Only a matter of time to see how it all works.
Buy, DRS, HODL. MOASS IS TOMORROW.
-Diamond fingers out
​
Edit: if you like tendies and offers, check out the DD put together by u/BiggySmallzzz and for more NFT clues see the work by u/Real_Eyezz

TL;DR - I have prepared a case which strongly indicates that Citadel Securities, along with it's "affiliates" are committing securities fraud. On March 26th 2021, FINRA released a new citation against Citadel Securities for nearly 2 years worth of securities violations. The only reason Citadel HASN'T been busted for fraud is because they hide behind the veil of 'unintentional' behavior. However, this post illustrates how Citadel's actions flag ALL 3 corners of the fraud triangle- pressure, motivation, and opportunity. It's time for these people to be held accountable.
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Trying something new this time.
I recorded a video walkthrough of this DD with u/isitabuy, prior to dropping the DD.
If you wanna watch that, click here
Prerequisite DD
1. Citadel Has No Clothes
2. BlackRock Bagholders, INC.
3. The EVERYTHING Short
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________
My fellow apes,
Many of you are wondering how these posts about Citadel relate to GameStop. Perhaps I've lost sight on explaining this connection, so let me clear this up before diving into MORE sh*t on them.
As u/dontfightthevol pointed out: you just never know what a company's short position is because they aren't required to disclose it. And unfortunately, she's right.
What we can do, however, is expose the sh*t surrounding them. The fraud triangle WORKS because people act maliciously when they have the pressure, incentive, and opportunity to commit it. PERIOD. This means if it walks and talks like a duck, it's most likely a f*cking duck.
I hope I've done a good job revealing the evidence of their ever-tightening noose. To name a few big ones:

1. the FINRA violations for naked shorting, failing to post a short sale indicator on transactions, withholding large customer orders to lower the market price, FLASH crashes
2. the growth of rehypothecated assets for both treasury & equity securities (especially in 2020)
3. the growth in liabilities as their PROMISES to repay keeps getting bigger and bigger (especially in 2020)
4. FINRA's concern regarding the lack of preventative measures within their system to detect these issues
5. the number of times they've been documented for 'accidently' removing logic to detect these issues

Everything fits within ALL corners of the fraud triangle. Citadel commits violations just to make a few million, knowing their fines are essentially just a small tax. Now that their exposure to shorted stocks and bonds is increasing, the PRESSURE to commit these actions is even higher.
For far too long, people with money have been draining the wealth out of the global economy. Everything around us becomes more expensive and the power to do anything about it, decreases. We are forced to think about pinching-pennies just to make ends-meet, while there are people benefitting from ALL of this injustice- the ultra-wealthy.
This aggregation of wealth has been going on behind the scenes for centuries. Slowly and gradually like a frog sitting in a pot of boiling water. Debt has been designed to be carried for life.
Their confidence and greed reached a level SO HIGH that it should have been impossible for them to fail on their bet against GameStop. The ONLY thing that could blow their victory was if we all started listening to one another.. and most importantly- learning.
And learn, we did...
We sat down at the World Series of Poker, called their bluff, and won.
GameStop is the lynchpin; GameStop opens the flood gates; GameStop is our checkmate.
GameStop exposes them to a LIMITLESS and IMMEDIATE transfer of wealth back to the 99%. This situation is dangerous because those who put their vote into GameStop are finally able to take back control.
GameStop is our hedge against the funds ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Hopefully that's been cleared up and we can get back to the point of this post.
Now.... This sh*t just KEEPS COMING!
To me, this is further evidence of their desperate actions within a rigged market. After calling out Citadel for shorting US treasuries, I recently found out they've been slapped with ANOTHER FINRA violation on 3/25/2021 for US treasury securities..
yeah....seriously..
BTW, this wasn't even something I was searching for.. I literally walked Cory (the host) through my investigative process and uncovered it in our first live interview (this link is for the short version; I uncovered it in the long version which wasn't posted).
Anyway, these violations occurred between July 2017 and October 2019 while the Fed's tapering program was kicking off. It's extremely hard to be conclusive about the little details when you can only see a portion of the puzzle, so I usually start these DDs by finding WIDE holes that scream for attention- this violation is one of those holes. Citadel Securities has been slapped 58 times for regulatory violations and those are JUST within the stock market. To me, the reason why THIS violation is so monumental is because it represents their FIRST treasuries violation (first page under background). FINRA issued them a $275,000 fine along with a censure order, meaning they really disprove of Citadel's actions, here. ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________
I'm going to show you pieces of the disclosure event and gently massage it into your smooth brains.
https://preview.redd.it/fcbti40lsgr61.png?width=598&format=png&auto=webp&s=4bbdef79a6952eb2922fc3414cdb9547317cd29b
https://preview.redd.it/49ovd6zlsgr61.png?width=597&format=png&auto=webp&s=123db57e0e0b60b0d5e4b48639691f309b90f775

1. Incorrectly reporting internal transfers as treasury transactions
2. Failing to append the "No Remuneration" indicator to TRACE reports for certain transactions between affiliates
3. Failing to include the correct contra-party type in its TRACE reports for certain affiliates

To me, the biggest red flag in this comes from the very last sentence: "IN ALL CASES, THE INCORRECT TRACE REPORTS INVOLVED INTERNAL POSITION TRANSFERS OR TRANSACTIONS WITH AFFILIATES AND DID NOT INVOLVE TRANSACTIONS WITH CLIENTS". I'll touch back on the rest of the violation, shortly.
Now, lemme take you to school.
I'll walk you through these indicators and then discuss how they relate to Citadel's situation.
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________
What are related party transactions and why do they matter?
The codification (official accounting bible from FASB) explains related party disclosures under ASC 850. I'd love to have a subscription to this, but it's about $1,200 a year. So here's a link from Deloitte that gives a decent overview of ASC 850-10.
A typical related party transaction occurs just like a normal transaction, but the parties involved have a connection, somehow. They can be:

1. A parent entity and its subsidiaries
2. Subsidiaries of a common parent
3. An entity and trusts for the benefit of employees, such as pension and profit-sharing trusts that are managed by or under the trusteeship of the entity’s management
4. An entity and its principal owners, management, or members of their immediate families
5. Affiliates.

Transactions can be any of the following:

1. Sales, purchases, and transfers of real and personal property
2. Services received or furnished, such as accounting, management, engineering, and legal services
3. Use of property and equipment by lease or otherwise
4. Borrowings, lendings, and guarantees
5. Maintenance of compensating bank balances for the benefit of a related party
6. Intra-entity billings based on allocations of common costs
7. Filings of consolidated tax returns.

When you have related parties, or affiliated parties, the biggest concern is that a relationship materially affects the way that business is conducted. For example, you should disclose situations where subsidiaries are conducting transactions with the parent entity. Or if the subsidiary is wholly owned, which means you're doing business with yourself, at least in practice. The failure to disclose this information may materially mislead investors.
For example, party A (affiliate) may be selling products / services to party B (also an affiliate) at a rate that differs significantly from the open market. For example, Party A sells treasuries to Party B at an amount that's much lower ($990) than fair market ($1,000). This would allow Party B to sell those securities back into the market at the normal market rate ($1,000), and record a bigger profit ($10) because their cost is much lower ($990). Party A then offsets the expense ($10) back to yet ANOTHER company, and removes it from their books. Hedge funds and offshore funds are perfect for burying these transactions because they don't report financial statements like public companies.
Likewise, Party A may need to remove something from their balance sheet (bad loans, etc.) and simply use Party B as a dumpster. This is EXACTLY what Enron did with their special purpose entities (REMEMBER THAT TERM), or SPEs. When Enron had to incur huge losses, they simply shifted those losses to shell companies and left the "good" stuff on their books.
Queue violation # 1
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https://preview.redd.it/y4nqv3nwsgr61.png?width=934&format=png&auto=webp&s=5b82bb5a74d510e5d0489c9cfe32c7e856c55289
Ok.... when you send transactions to the TRACE system, they ask you to prove they are legitimate. If they are legitimate, and occur with an affiliate, FINRA needs to know that.. This is to prevent frauds like Enron from happening again.
For sake of argument, let's just ignore the part where they "unintentionally" removed logic and then "intentionally" reinserted it..... because that would make this DD too damn easy.
Breaking this down:

1. Citadel OVER reported 452,451 securities transactions which represents only 14% of total REPORTED transactions to TRACE. This means that Citadel reported 3,231,792 treasury transactions, and 1 transaction doesn't necessarily mean 1 treasury... could be thousands
2. They were not required to report 14% of those because they SHOULD have been flagged as internal transfers and not treasury transactions

Now we begin to uncover the corners of the fraud triangle (pressure, incentive, opportunity). Citadel was obviously compliant for 86% of their treasury reports, so WHY would they feel the need to "unintentionally" OVER-report 14%....
Hey Citadel... why you WALKIN' like a duck?
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How did FINRA find out these were actually internal transfers? Probably the same way I did- by looking for clues. Check out Citadel Securities "Related Party Disclosures" from 2020 (same as in 2019, I checked).
https://preview.redd.it/mbo5ina2tgr61.png?width=862&format=png&auto=webp&s=a447438353463706035d9c7a377135e502da2e0b
CSHC..... Who are you, REALLY???
Ladies and Gentlemen,
Presenting Citadel Securities Institutional, LLC!!!
https://preview.redd.it/g5z47qe3tgr61.png?width=919&format=png&auto=webp&s=848a3a19b8a58431cb062e4693b8e56d868f912f
Think it's the same company?
Nope..
https://preview.redd.it/4wcm9m94tgr61.png?width=814&format=png&auto=webp&s=b0b3d452794547d5df6382723a8da98dfe571aa3
Citadel Securities INSTITUTIONAL is a completely different company in the books. These guys are AFFILIATED to one another, but exist separately as SPECIAL PURPOSE ENTITIES, or SPEs..
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Let's walk through this again..
Citadel SECURITIES lists CSHC US LLC ("CSHC") as an affiliate (PG 2), and the sole MEMBER of the company....
https://preview.redd.it/n5ykf829tgr61.png?width=862&format=png&auto=webp&s=3ef1a464413629ee22759e0d1528e1e2a4406550
Citadel Securities INSTITUTIONAL ("CSHC") lists CSHC US LLC ("CSUH") as an affiliate (also PG 2), and ALSO as the sole MEMBER of the company....
https://preview.redd.it/ynqzaew9tgr61.png?width=961&format=png&auto=webp&s=26807d8e726d1c3ccb6fb9af734fe890e5ef000a
CSHC US LLC ("CSUH")???? Who the hell is this?
Had to go back to a financial disclosure in 2016 to dig up this lil' jewel....
https://preview.redd.it/fx0r57obtgr61.png?width=1185&format=png&auto=webp&s=0256f01be3951e02f6decbc40b1200a79e575dbe
CLP Holdings Three LLC ("CLP3")........
WTF....
On January 1, 2016 "CLP3" merged into ("CSUH")....
So WHO is CLP Holdings Three LLC ?!?!?!?!?
....found this from 2015 (bottom paragraph, PG 2)...

1. Citadel Parent Owns 100% of CLP Holdings Three LLC, which became "CSUH" in 2016
2. CSHC US LLC ("CSUH") is the ONLY member of CSHC US LLC ("CSHC")
3. CSHC US LLC ("CSHC") is ALSO managed by Citadel Parent.....

So basically......
...Citadel, is Citadel, is Citadel, is Citadel....
No wonder why FINRA was pissed. It LOOKS LIKE Citadel took treasuries from Citadel Securities and transferred them to Citadel Securities Institutional, but reported them as sales transactions to TRACE......
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Queue violation # 2
https://preview.redd.it/zedlmj1ltgr61.png?width=802&format=png&auto=webp&s=28a1318da187c5aea37d339e157acfb75a022cef
Again, let's ignore the part where they pretended to "discover" the issue in June 2019 prior to being contacted. Let's also ignore the lack of "necessary" logic to determine which transactions are which.
They do this in almost every f*cking violation they get...
Now what is remuneration?
Basically, it's a type of compensation. In the case of Citadel Securities, it's the price adjustment that is passed to Citadel Securities Institutional when a treasury is sold / lent.
A normal market transaction might sell a treasury security for $1,000. In this case, the $1,000 is entirely represented by the bond's value.
An affiliated market transaction might sell a treasury security for $990, with $10 in remuneration for a total of ($1,000). In this case, the bond is ONLY worth $990, but the $10 in remuneration makes it APPEAR like a $1,000 bond..
FINRA asks for companies to disclose this because it can be heavily abused, obviously...
This is what happened to Citadel Securities. There were 45,638 instances between July 2017 and October 2019 where Citadel Securities did NOT appropriately indicate this....
If you fail to indicate this, and ALSO report internal transfers as normal transactions, it REALLY starts to look like you're covering your tracks....
Citadel...... Why you TALKIN' like a duck?
Queue Violation #3.
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https://preview.redd.it/ur98wqavtgr61.png?width=703&format=png&auto=webp&s=0ea8d3c64afc1f06fa3f700dc04b9132f24ce7ee
Call this the smoking gun.....
Really.... it doesn't get much more obvious than this....
Citadel Securities gets busted pushing transactions into the TRACE system when they were really just internal transfers between SPEs....
They're then cited for failing to indicate a No Remuneration transaction with affiliated parties....
And finally, they "misclassified" the nature of the contra party in 11,989 transactions, saying they were customers instead of their own... you guessed it.... SPEs..
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Want more? Check out this disclosure from Citadel Securities....
https://preview.redd.it/q7imuxb3ugr61.png?width=636&format=png&auto=webp&s=fe9f5f5163eaf4daffc32eefbf41fc28a0b8cc89
Citadel Securities Institutional (CSIN) provided execution services to Citadel Securities under a cost-plus agreement..
huh.... cost-plus..... sounds a lot like a remuneration agreement.... because it is.
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Let's bring this all together, shall we?

1. Citadel Securities sells treasuries to "affiliate" parties, such as Citadel Securities Institutional
2. Citadel Securities marks (most) of their transactions with a 'No-Remuneration' indicator after selling the security to the "affiliate" party.
3. To FINRA, this complies with TRACE because it looks like a typical transaction without a markup / markdown on the price of the treasury
4. At the end of the month, Citadel Securities reimburses Citadel Securities Institutional for the cost of their treasury purchases, plus an little more in profit for their services
5. Citadel Securities records the commission revenue from Citadel Securities Institutional once the treasuries are finally sold to the outside party

Did you catch the loophole?
Citadel Securities is able to remain compliance with FINRA because they pay for the services (markup / markdown) provided by Citadel Securities Institutional AFTER the transactions are cleared through this system... they just disguise them as "service fees".
Instead of paying DURING the transaction, by remuneration, they simply leave it off the books and hide it on their financial statements....
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________
If you're wondering where the SEC is in all of this mess, listen up.
THE SEC AND FINRA ARE BOTH REGULATORY AGENCIES FOR FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS.
I am now 100% convinced that the SEC has given the responsibility of investigating fraud to FINRA, while the SEC 'works' on creating the legislation to stop these acts...
However, it appears the SEC and FINRA are working as totally separate agencies while the SEC is supposed to be overseeing FINRA.... I'm convinced the money flows directly to the SEC from FINRA fines and the SEC is at risk of losing that revenue if they actually start cracking down on these pigs.
I am presenting a genuine case, here.
If you're wondering where the auditor (PWC) is in all of this, they just have to verify the statements are FAIRLY PRESENTED. THEY DON'T HAVE TO SAY ANYTHING ELSE! All audit firms are now in the business of consulting, like Arthur Andersen did with Enron. They all sit in a room and discuss the best way to present this sh*t without looking like a giant fraud.
You want to see how bad the situation has become? Check out this 10K (PG 4) from one of Citadel's recent 13G/A filings on 2/16/2021. Keep in mind, this is an acquisition company that specializes in purchasing companies that are headed for bankruptcy...
MUDRICK CAPITAL ACQUISITION CORPORATION II
This is so much more than speculation..... Citadel is a duck.
DIAMOND.F*CKING.HANDS
This is not financial advice

In light of the recent Cellar Boxing revelations, I think it’s best if I post some connections I’ve made so we can potentially uncover what other games are being played behind the scenes.
Especially after u/Criand edited his comment and left this:
wut mean, wut mean?
I’m too smooth brained to understand that comment, but I’m pretty sure I’ve come across futures+swaps in here. We'll cover a big chunk of the network of bankers, high-frequency traders, legislations, ownerships and where it all points to. Feel free to correct anything and note that none of this is financial advice, I’ll probably add lots of edits so stay tuned. Also lots of speculation (duh).

Citigroup, Glass-Steagall, crisis of ‘08, naked shorting and Robinhood

Travelers Citicorp mega-merger

• Stitched together in the 1990s by CEO and Chairman Sandy Weill and in the process of more than 100 acquisitions (mergers) helped bury the Glass-Steagall act
• The ‘98 merger of Weill’s Travelers Group and John S. Reed’s Citicorp (First Bank of New York) would enable Travelers to market mutual funds and insurance to Citicorp's retail customers while giving the banking divisions access to an expanded client base of investors and insurance buyers
• One of the mergers ended up as Salomon Smith Barney, who was the lead underwriter or a book-running manager (same thing) for Gamestop IPO in 2002 but we’ll get into Blackstone and Silverstein in another post..

“Glass-Steagall Shatterer”

• Sandy Weill was regarded as “The Shatterer of Glass-Steagall”
• Glass–Steagall made sure banking and insurance businesses had been kept separate. Basically separates retail banking (i.e. your personal savings account type stuff) from commercial/investment banking.
• Glass-Steagall was a problem for Travelers Citi merger so Weill and Reed got both Republicans and Democrats on their side and the law was taken down in less than two years when Clinton signed the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act in Nov 1999
• Robert Rubin and Charles Prince were said to be influential in pushing the company towards MBS and CDOs in the subprime mortgage market.

Weill loses grip on Citi and watches it dive deep into CDOs

• In 2003, Weill remained chairman but was replaced as CEO by Charles Prince, who was one of the people at the heart of 2008 financial meltdown
• In 2006/2007, Citi was directly involved with Wing Chau, the smug CDO guy) in the restaurant near the end of the movie The Big Short.
  • Merrill Lynch and Citigroup, the biggest perpetrators of the self-dealing, were among the biggest losers. Merrill lost about $26 billion on mortgage CDOs and Citigroup about $34 billion.
  • 3rd November, 2007, Bowen emailed Citigroup Chairman Robert Rubin and the bank's chief financial officer, head auditor, and the chief risk management officer to again expose the risk and potential losses
    • Bowen was ignored, even though withholding such information from shareholders violated the Sarbanes–Oxley Act (SOX), which he had pointed out.
    • Charles Prince signed a certification that the bank was in compliance with SOX despite Bowen revealing this wasn't so.
  • 4th November 2007, Prince resigned from his post as CEO of Citigroup due to the failing mortgage industry. He was replaced by Vikram Pandit as the CEO of Citigroup, and by Robert Rubin as its chairman.
• By November 2008, Citigroup was insolvent, despite its $25 billion bailout in taxpayer-funded federal Troubled Asset Relief Program funds.
• November 24, 2008, the U.S. government announced a massive bailout for Citigroup designed to rescue the company from bankruptcy while giving the government a major say in its operations.
  • The bailout called for the government to back about $306 billion in loans and securities and directly invest about $20 billion in the company
  • According to The Wall Street Journal, if Citigroup was allowed to unravel into bankruptcy, "100 governments around the world would be trying to figure out how to pay their employees"

Citi naked on GME for over a decade, still naked with Robinhood

• In April 2006, everyone but Weill got nominated for chairman of board because of his contract, so he retired as a chairman
• In April 2006, 2 members of Gamestop board sell 6.5 million shares to Citigroup
  • In there it says Citigroup can naked short the shares off-the-counter

https://preview.redd.it/n7276t9d03n71.png?width=1894&format=png&auto=webp&s=b6c66a77b24808b5da8a8caeb1276ce3f184370f
https://preview.redd.it/anva8vsd03n71.png?width=1852&format=png&auto=webp&s=9fc42fd34a8bb8c6cef2593268c91b0ea4d13439

Citigroup, Robinhood’s underwriter can create naked short positions

• Here’s the list of underwriters from their IPO July 1st 2021

https://preview.redd.it/83plrige03n71.png?width=608&format=png&auto=webp&s=86ba26ced789fd56b7724d6411b4b407f7182a25

• Same document lists Citigroup Global Markets as an underwriter
  • At the very bottom there is mention of a rule 424: For purposes of determining any liability under the Securities Act, the information omitted from the form of prospectus filed as part of this registration statement in reliance upon Rule 430A and contained in a form of prospectus filed by the registrant pursuant to Rule 424(b)(1) or (4) or 497(h) under the Securities Act shall be deemed to be part of this registration statement as of the time it was declared effective.
  • Here’s the 424B4 saying: The underwriters may also sell shares in excess of their option to purchase additional shares, solely to cover over-allotments, creating a naked short position. The underwriters must close out any naked short position by purchasing shares in the open market.

So maybe Citi naked shorts, and Citadel handles the risk, but is there more?

• That same IPO document lists the market makers who take on the risks under “ROBINHOOD MARKETS, INC. NOTES TO THE CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS”
  • If we take a look at concentration of credit risk, there’s Citadel, but not much else:

https://preview.redd.it/mbu63nff03n71.png?width=755&format=png&auto=webp&s=1ce38ea9cfd42077ad0122557cc7f9cf5ae033f4

• However, there is an unaudited version of the same note: “ROBINHOOD MARKETS, INC. NOTES TO THE CONDENSED CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS (unaudited)”

https://preview.redd.it/mosytl7g03n71.png?width=749&format=png&auto=webp&s=43451166960fcef7d4aa8f256abb04d8b6c568d3

We’ll come back to Jump Trading Group and the other members of PTG, let’s see what Apex has to say - Robinhood’s clearinghouse

Apex, tastyworks, CME, trading halt lawsuit and Citi

What is Apex Fintech Solutions LLC?

• a clearinghouse, an intermediary between a buyer and a seller that validates and finalizes the transaction
• futures commission merchant (FCM) - that solicits (requests) or accepts orders to buy or sell futures contracts, options on futures, retail off-exchange forex contracts or swaps
• broker-dealer, broker (or agent) when trading securities on behalf of its clients and dealer (or principal) when it trades for itself

Apex and Citi role in halting trades

• 21 Jan 2021, Citi starts to provide integrated custody services and streamline the operational processes to Apex
• Apex is currently being sued for halting trading in January 2021, Apex had collateral but restricted purchasing of stocks for their own self serving purposes
  • 28 Jan Apex, allegedly, “along with over 30 other brokerages, trading firms and/or clearing firms, including Morgan Stanley, E\Trade, Interactive Brokers, Charles Schwab, Robinhood, Barclays, Citadel and DTCC engaged in a coordinated conspiracy* in violation of anti-trust laws to prevent retail customers from operating and trading freely in a conspiracy to allow certain of the other defendants, primarily hedge funds, to stop losing money on short sale positions in GameStop, (MOVIE STOCK AUTOMOD CMON) and certain other securities.”

Apex going public with Ether Futures

• Feb 2021, Apex starts offering Ether Futures
• Feb 2021, Apex went public on NYSE
  • The IPO was done via reverse merger with Northern Star Investment Corp II (NSIC II), who was already listed on NYSE
    • NSIC II is a SPAC, or a blank-check company which is essentially a large pool of cash listed on a public exchange with the sole purpose of completing an acquisition (merger). It’s a backdoor IPO.
  • Sole book-running manager for the NSIC II IPO was Citigroup, with statements filed with the SEC which became effective on 25 Jan 2021
  • Financial advisor for the merger, in NSIC II's case was Citigroup, and J.P. Morgan Securities for Apex

Tastyworks, Apex trading halt and CME

• tastyworks, a broker under Apex custody, halted trading in January 2021
  • in their Futures & Exchange-Traded Options Risk Disclosure Statement there is a Notice Regarding Average price System (APS)
    • You should be aware that certain US and non-US exchanges, including the CME and CBOT, may now or in the future allow a futures commission merchant (“FCM”) such as [Name of Clearing Firm] to confirm trades executed on such exchanges to some or all of their customers on an average price basis regardless of whether the exchanges have average price systems of their own.
    • Average prices that are not calculated by an exchange system will be calculated by your FCM. In either case, trades that are confirmed to you at average prices will be designated as such on your daily and monthly statements.
    • APS may produce prices that do not conform to whole cent increments. In such cases, any amounts less than one cent may be retained by the clearing member. For example, if the total residual to be paid to a customer on a rounded average price for 10 contracts is $83.333333, the clearing member may pay $83.33 to the customer.
• CBOT is a contract maker for CME Group, they merged in 07
• So CME and CBOT (they’re the same) are exchanges that (at least in tastyworks case) allow futures commission merchant (Apex) to confirm trades to all customers, and without an Average Price System (APS) of their own, Apex sets the prices.

And that just looks like theft - if the rounded average price for 10 contracts is $83.333333, Apex pays $83.33 to the customer, and what? Keeps the 0.00333? Wut mean? Wer moni? Too Smooth Brained.

So let’s go back to Jump Trading Group

The High-Frequency Friends, Principal Traders Group (PTG)%20is,May%206%2C%202010%20%22flash%20crash.%22)

Lobby group made of independent proprietary trading firms that trade only on their own accounts, or criminals from the Chicago pits

• Check out the PTG members:

https://preview.redd.it/j17qsz9h03n71.png?width=312&format=png&auto=webp&s=8071fdc4bfdf595d393bc817e0283f795f4a4bb2

Members details

• Most member firms are based in Chicago
• Almost all are somehow either founded in the pits of Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), involved in OTC trading, scrutinized for illegal activity or involved in a scandal.
• Almost all operating on CME Globex platform
  • According to BusinessInsider, Jump Trading Group and Citadel Securities are the two largest market makers in the world
  • Citadel
    • fined $70000 by CME for messing with Globex
  • Jump Trading Group (JTG)
    • high-frequency trading firm
    • founded in 1999 by two former pit traders, Paul Gurinas and Bill Disomma, who met in the Deutsche Mark pit at the CME
    • also messing with Globex
  • Allston Trading LLC
    • founded by former CME traders
    • caught cheating on CME trading platform Globex
  • Cognitive Capital LLC
    • founded by ex Goldman Sachs managing director
    • their portfolio manager has experience with Globex
  • DRW Trading
    • named as Lead Market Maker for Eurodollar Options on GLOBEX
  • DV Trading
    • was a subsidiary of Rosenthal Collins Group, Scott Gordon, former chairman of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, was appointed president and CEO of RCG in 2004. He was elevated to chairman and CEO in 2007.
    • also cheating on Globex
  • Eagle Seven Trading
    • ties to Globex and CME
    • also violating rules
  • Geneva Trading
    • founded by CBOT traders
    • fined by CME
  • Hard Eight Futures
    • ties to Globex
  • HTG Capital Partners
    • fined for messing with Globex.)
    • does OTC ETFs
  • KCG Holdings
    • owned by Global Electronic Trading Company (GETCO)#:~:text=KCG%20Holdings%20Inc.%20(KCG)%20is,fund%20manager%20Deephaven%20Holdings.%5B2%5D)
    • GETCO is a market maker which operates a dark pool#:~:text=GETCO%20is%20a,February%202008.%5B1%5D)
  • Ketchum Trading
    • provided co-location for CME
    • partnered with Hehmeyer, a market maker that deals on OTC markets
  • Marquette Partners LP
    • deals with CME
    • fined by CME for Globex
  • Optiver
    • deals OTC options and ETFs.%5B5%5D)
    • market bully
    • effective June 6 Globex
  • Quantlab Financial
    • mentioned on investopedia regarding “CME loophole”
  • RGM Advisors
    • in bed with CME, Reuters, Citadel, big banks, etc
    • makes big profits after 2008 crisis but loses money when lacking volatility?
  • Teza Technologies
    • sold its HFT business to Quantlab Financial
  • Tower Research Capital
    • fined by CME for messing with Globex.)
  • TradeForecaster Global Markets LLC
    • founder came from CME pits and GLOBEX!
  • WH Trading
    • started hedging with Globex in the early days
  • XR Trading
    • fined by CME for Globex

Funny how Reuters and CME have a successful track record
Just like Jeff Bezos and Washington Post do.
Reuters shilling for CME
London based trader causes futures market crash?%20-%20CME%20Group%20Inc%20on%20Wednesday%20denied%20allegations%20that%20the%20futures%20markets%2C%20which%20prosecutors%20are%20accusing%20a%20London-based%20trader%20of%20having%20illegally%20manipulated%2C%20caused%20the%20May%202010%20Wall%20Street%20%E2%80%9Cflash%20crash.%E2%80%9D) or reuters shilling?
Mr. Robot?

Tinfoil save position, what about CME Globex?

Globex

CME’s money machine

• Trading platform for derivatives launched in 1992, running on Reuters network
• Developed for the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and officially known as CME Globex, operating almost 24 hours a day
• Globex trades constitute 90% of CME Group's total volume—nine out of every 10 trades, in other words. The platform offers access from more than 150 countries and foreign territories.
• Offers E-mini S&P 500 futures with quantities of 2000, and 5000 for spreads

Globex and the 2010 flash crash

• Was directly involved in may 6 flash crash 2010, according to this document (Examining the causes and lessons of the May 6th Market Plunge)

https://preview.redd.it/7jm42fhj03n71.png?width=676&format=png&auto=webp&s=10a6a43e52a34440271a7fc67c54ca09c88e7aa4
https://preview.redd.it/wjbh8r2k03n71.png?width=696&format=png&auto=webp&s=f5520999be4f65b9043cb104e51d7430313579b3

• Here’s what Gensler has to say lol:

https://preview.redd.it/c7vwi3vk03n71.png?width=675&format=png&auto=webp&s=bdb1dc9f7ed2f99af72e2a05b47feaf06f2d961e

• "it wasn't us, we helped" - CME

Basically, there’s CME Globex, and then there’s Citadel

CME and Citadel

• CME offers futures, options on futures and OTC trading product lines on interest rates, equity indexes, energies, agricultural products, metals, foreign exchange and cryptocurrencies
• It’s already known from u/atobitt’s Walkin’ Like a Duck. Talkin’ Like A Duck DD that Citadel has a tendency to commit securities fraud, but what about CME?

Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) summarized history with Citadel, amazing post by u/Lunarnautics

• Before the 2008 financial crisis, banks were setting their own prices for Credit Default Swaps (CDS). They essentially dictate the spread.
• Then when Obama signed the Dodd-Frank Act in 2009, which said that a clearinghouse was now needed for trading and pricing swaps, Citadel wanted a piece of the action.
• So Citadel and Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME Group) tried to create a platform for trading swaps where the swaps would be priced by Citadel.
• Top nine of the world's largest banks that were most affected by the 2008 crisis (Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Citi, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, JPMorgan, Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley and UBS) didn’t like Citadel’s idea for swaps so they paired up with InterContinental Exchange (ICE) clearinghouse
• The banks made a deal that ICE provide market data exclusively to Markit, a company that Citadel couldn’t do without because they own certain derivative indexes, so Kenny and his friends sued the banks saying that the banks rigged the swaps prices
• Citadel was part of a group of investors and market participants that in Sep 2015 won a $1.9 billion settlement after alleging that the banks had conspired to limit competition in the credit-default swaps market and sabotage a CDS exchange planned by Citadel and CME
  • This settlement secured Citadel’s seat at the table with the banks?

Then there’s Citadel, Northern Trust and Blackrock

Citadel v Blackrock, amazing post by u/Slyver12, I’ve copied a part of their post that elaborates this connection

Start of quote

• This is a sheet for CITADEL ADVISORS LLC that details funds that they manage. There are numerous funds here. OP picks one of the larger ones to illustrate some connections (page 156 in the linked document). This is one of many similar funds in this document.
• Fund name: CITADEL MULTI-STRATEGY EQUITIES MASTER FUND LTD
• Type: Hedge Fund
• Size of private fund: $66.7 billion.
• Approximate owned by Citadel: 1%
• Approximate owned by US citizens: 79%
• Prime Brokers of the private fund (a prime broker manages the fund):

📷(image go check out the OP)

• Custodians of the private fund (custodian holds the assets)

📷(image)

• Administrator of the fund (other than Citadel)

https://preview.redd.it/bni2cd2m03n71.png?width=520&format=png&auto=webp&s=c5f0764e1b4d1e7898c8b8aaa607495f1aac72a1
End of quote
Before we get into Northern Trust, Citadel and Omnium, here’s something just as relevant, from a different, also must read post - It's almost like Blackrock and Citadel have this arrangement ... Blackrock buys and holds the shares then lends them to Citadel so they can short them, rehypothicate them, do all kinds of fuckery in options, etc. to fuck over retail investors. Blackrock has Citadel by the balls, Citadel has retail investors by the balls, ya-da-ya-da-ya-da.”

Okay, Northern Trust, now where else have I seen that? Oh, that’s right!

Northern Trust

• Allies with Blackrock
• Was involved in Enron scandal
• $1.5 trillion in assets under management and $15.7 trillion in assets under custody as of June 2021
• Bailed out in 2008
• northern trust buys omnium hedge fund admin business 2011
• northern trust buys citadels omnium Jan 2018
• Everyone Thinks It's Really Weird That Citadel Just Sold Omnium (For $100 Million)

Remember the GME float change on Yahoo?

https://preview.redd.it/mrnn2qsn03n71.png?width=645&format=png&auto=webp&s=472da2169adb6549f63e34d140c3536a7313786c

Who owns verizon?

• Top 5 shareholders:
  • Vanguard Group
  • Blackrock
  • State Street Corp
  • Berkshire Hathaway
  • Geode Capital Management (hedge fund business shut down in February 2021) - i wonder why
• Other notable ones:
  • Bank of America
  • Northern Trust - wut doing?
  • Charles Schwab Investment Management
  • Morgan Stanley
  • Jpmorgan Chase & Co
  • Goldman Sachs Group
  • Susquehanna International
  • Citadel Advisors
  • D.E. Shaw (Bezos?)
  • Citigroup

Thanks stockzoa, but who really owns Yahoo?

Apollo Global Management

• bought Yahoo in September
• bought Michaels in April
• bought a game development studio Fortress Front Interactive in May
• charged by SEC in 2016
• founded by Leon Black, Epstein’s buddy who bribed both parties
• Since the beginning of 2008, Apollo has been a significant acquirer of senior secured loans from investment banks and other financial institutions. In April 2008, Apollo, TPG Capital, and The Blackstone Group completed the acquisition of $12.5 billion of bank loans from Citigroup. (this paragraph could be a DD itself these bastards bought everything!)
• In late 2008, it was reported that Apollo had received margin calls associated with the financing of its purchase of certain loan portfolios as the price of the loans decreased.

So Apollo is bad but at this point things are getting too complicated, so I’ll be happy if other apes can take over and dig out whatever else there is about these crooks. My guess is that Apollo is linked to Bain Capital and the Bustout business that is detailed in this god-tier DD by u/jumpster81

https://preview.redd.it/wipmiduo03n71.png?width=834&format=png&auto=webp&s=779758105160b4929f5f0185e70dfd24fe4b1855
It’s also very likely that Citi had something to do with zombie stocks:
https://preview.redd.it/xr5au5hp03n71.png?width=852&format=png&auto=webp&s=b9a2cbed4eaf800ece34e71fe95271ecf9f0a6b6
Here are some other interesting links I found.
Scene Last Night: Ken Griffin, Sandy Weill, John McEnroe
hedge funds like Millennium, Point72, BlueCrest, and Citadel are continuing to poach banks' London staff (Citadel has also been poaching people for its new Paris office.) "Hedge funds are draining banks of talent," says the headhunter. "It used to be that they would only look at banks' traders for senior roles, but now they're hiring people into sub- PM positions too."

Originalbeitrag von "peruvian_bull" 

Übersicht

• Seltsame Dinge Teil 1: Der verschwindende Anleihenmarkt

TL;DR

Während die Fed ihre Reise in einen deflationären Schneesturm antritt, beginnt sie, die Märkte auf der ganzen Welt zu zerstören. Als Weltreservewährung werden über 60 % des gesamten internationalen Handels in Dollar abgewickelt, und der Dollar ist der bei weitem größte Devisenbestand der globalen Zentralbanken. Jetzt stürzen alle ausländischen Währungen gegenüber dem Dollar ab, da die bösartigen Rückkopplungsschleifen von Triffin's Dilemma zu ihrem Recht kommen. Der Dollar-Milchshake hat begonnen.
Die Fed ist, wissentlich oder unwissentlich, in diese Falle getappt - und nun finden sie sich unter dem Damoklesschwert gefangen, aus dem es keinen Ausweg gibt...
Das Damoklesschwert
"Das berühmte "Damoklesschwert" geht auf eine antike moralische Parabel zurück, die der römische Philosoph Cicero 45 v. Chr. in seinem Buch "Tuskulanische Disputationen" popularisierte. In Ciceros Version der Geschichte geht es um Dionysius II., einen tyrannischen König, der im vierten und fünften Jahrhundert v. Chr. über die sizilianische Stadt Syrakus herrschte.
Obwohl er reich und mächtig war, war Dionysius äußerst unglücklich. Seine eiserne Herrschaft hatte ihm viele Feinde eingebracht, und er wurde von der Angst vor einem Attentat gequält - so sehr, dass er in einem von einem Graben umgebenen Schlafgemach schlief und nur seinen Töchtern zutraute, seinen Bart mit einem Rasiermesser zu rasieren.
Wie Cicero erzählt, spitzte sich die Unzufriedenheit des Königs eines Tages zu, als ein Hofschmeichler namens Damokles ihn mit Komplimenten überhäufte und bemerkte, wie glücklich sein Leben sein müsse. "Da dich dieses Leben erfreut", erwiderte der verärgerte Dionysios, "möchtest du es selbst kosten und mein Glück auf die Probe stellen?" Als Damokles zustimmte, setzte Dionysios ihn auf eine goldene Couch und befahl einer Schar von Dienern, ihn zu bedienen. Er wurde mit saftigen Fleischstücken verwöhnt und mit duftenden Parfüms und Salben überhäuft.
Damokles konnte sein Glück kaum fassen, doch gerade als er anfing, das Leben eines Königs zu genießen, bemerkte er, dass Dionysius auch ein messerscharfes Schwert von der Decke hängen hatte. Es befand sich über Damokles' Kopf, nur aufgehängt an einer einzigen Strähne aus Pferdehaar.
Die Angst des Höflings um sein Leben machte es ihm von nun an unmöglich, die Opulenz des Festmahls zu genießen oder sich an den Dienern zu erfreuen. Nachdem er mehrere nervöse Blicke auf die über ihm baumelnde Klinge geworfen hatte, bat er um Verzeihung und sagte, er wolle nicht länger so glücklich sein."
Die Geschichte von Damokles ist ein warnendes Beispiel dafür, dass man vorsichtig sein sollte mit dem, was man sich wünscht - diejenigen, die nach Macht streben, schaffen oft unwissentlich genau die Systeme, die schließlich zu ihrem eigenen Untergang führen. Das Schwert wird oft als Metapher für eine drohende Gefahr verwendet; eine versteckte Falle, die diejenigen auslöschen kann, die sich des großen Risikos nicht bewusst sind, das die Hegemonie mit sich bringt.
Schwer liegt das Haupt, das die Krone trägt.
Es gibt mehrere Damoklesschwerter, die heute über der Welt schweben, aber dasjenige, das bisher am wenigsten verstanden und geglaubt wurde, ist Triffin's Dilemma, das den Grundstein für die Dollar-Milchshake-Theorie legt. Ich habe bereits vor etwa einem Jahr in Teil 1.5 und Teil 4.3 meiner Dollar Endgame Serie ausführlich über Triffin's Dilemma geschrieben, aber lass uns noch einmal rekapitulieren.

• Teil 1.5: Superstonk/comments/o4w45f/hyperinflation_is_coming_the_dollar_endgame_part/
• Teil 4.3: Superstonk/comments/stz5lm/hyperinflation_is_coming_the_dollar_endgame_part/

Hier ist eine gute Zusammenfassung - lese beide Seiten des Dilemmas:
Als der Wirtschaftswissenschaftler Robert Triffin 1960 vor dem US-Kongress aussagte, deckte er ein grundlegendes Problem des internationalen Währungssystems auf. Wenn die Vereinigten Staaten keine Zahlungsbilanzdefizite mehr hätten, würde die internationale Gemeinschaft ihre wichtigste Quelle für die Aufstockung von Reserven verlieren. Die daraus resultierende Liquiditätsverknappung könnte die Weltwirtschaft in eine Abwärtsspirale ziehen und zu Instabilität führen. Würden die US-Defizite fortbestehen, würde ein stetiger Strom von Dollars das weltweite Wirtschaftswachstum weiter ankurbeln. Übermäßige U.S. Defizite (Dollarschwemme) würde das Vertrauen in den Wert des US-Dollars untergraben. Ohne Vertrauen in den Dollar würde er nicht mehr als Weltreservewährung akzeptiert werden. Das System fester Wechselkurse könnte zusammenbrechen und zu Instabilität führen.

(Im Ernst, lese am besten nochmal Teil 1.5 und Teil 4.3 falls du es auch nicht getan hast)

Im Wesentlichen stellte Triffin fest, dass es einen grundlegenden Fehler im System gibt: Aufgrund der Tatsache, dass die Vereinigten Staaten Inhaber einer Weltreservewährung sind, hat das globale Finanzsystem eine weltweite Nachfrage nach Dollars aufgebaut. Keine andere Fiat-Währung hat dies.
Wie wird diese Nachfrage befriedigt? Durch das Angebot natürlich! Die Vereinigten Staaten sind daher gezwungen, Leistungsbilanzdefizite zu haben - was bedeutet, dass sie mehr Dollar in die Welt hinausschicken müssen, als sie netto erhalten. Dies hat mehrere Auswirkungen, die ich bereits dargelegt habe, die ich aber im Folgenden zusammenfassend auflisten möchte:

• Die Vereinigten Staaten müssen ein Nettoimporteur sein, d.h. sie müssen Handelsdefizite aufweisen, um die Welt mit Dollars zu versorgen. Denke daran, dass Dollar und Waren die entgegengesetzten Seiten der gleichen Gleichung sind, so dass ein größeres Handelsdefizit bedeutet, dass mehr Dollar in die Welt fließen.
• (Dies wird die inländische Produktion in den USA zerstören und politische/soziale/wirtschaftliche Probleme im eigenen Land verursachen).
• Diese Dollars fließen in die Weltwirtschaft ab und werden von den Institutionen auf verschiedene Weise aufgenommen.
• Erstens müssen ausländische Zentralbanken Dollar als Devisenreserven halten, um ihre Währung im Falle eines Angriffs auf die Devisenmärkte zu verteidigen. Dies zeigte sich während der asiatischen Finanzkrise von 1997-98, als der thailändische Baht, der malaysische Ringgit und der philippinische Peso (neben anderen ostasiatischen Währungen) gegenüber dem Dollar abstürzten. Die Zentralbanken dieser Länder versuchten, die Wechselkursanbindung zu verteidigen, was ihnen jedoch nicht gelang.
• Zweitens werden die Unternehmen Dollars für den Handel benötigen - da der USD über 60 % des weltweiten Handelsvolumens ausmacht und den bei weitem tiefsten und liquidesten Devisenmarkt hat, werden selbst kleine Unternehmen, die grenzüberschreitenden Handel betreiben müssen, USD erwerben müssen, um tätig zu sein. Wenn Südafrika und Chile Handel treiben, wollen sie keine mexikanischen Pesos oder koreanischen Won verwenden - sie wollen Dollars.
• Ausländische Regierungen brauchen Dollars. Es gibt bereits mehrere Länder, die den Dollar als Ersatz für ihre eigene Währung eingeführt haben - Ecuador und Simbabwe sind die besten Beispiele. Hier findest du eine vollständige Liste.
• Regierungen der Dritten Welt, die den Dollar nicht vollständig als ihre eigene Währung übernehmen, werden ihn immer noch zur Kreditaufnahme verwenden. Argentinien hat 70 % seiner Schulden in Dollar und Indonesien beispielsweise 30 %. Dollar-Schulden werden sich in Übersee anhäufen.
• Das Beispiel, das ich in Teil 1.5 anführte, betraf Liberia, ein kleines westafrikanisches Land, das in den Welthandel einsteigen will. Da die liberianische Zentralbank Dollars als Teil ihrer Devisenreserven benötigt, beginnt sie mit dem Kauf von USD auf dem offenen Markt. Für große liberianische Exportunternehmen läuft der Prozess ähnlich ab.

Dollar-Recycling
Im Wesentlichen drucken die Länder ihre eigene Währung, um Dollars zu kaufen. Da sie Zinsen auf diesen massiven Bargeldbestand erhalten wollen, wenn er nicht verwendet wird, kaufen sie Staatsanleihen und andere US-Schuldtitel, um eine Rendite zu erzielen.
In dem Maße, wie ihre Binnenwirtschaft wächst, steigt auch ihr Bedarf und ihre Abhängigkeit vom Dollar. Die Zentralbank hortet immer größere Mengen an Staatsanleihen und Dollars. Die ganze These ist, dass sie in Krisenzeiten die Staatsanleihen gegen USD verkaufen und die USD zum Rückkauf ihrer eigenen Währung auf dem Markt verwenden können, um deren Wert zu stützen und somit die Bindung zu verteidigen.
Dieser Kaufdruck auf USD und US-Staatsanleihen verschafft den Vereinigten Staaten einen massiven Vorteil.
Das unverschämte Privileg: DAS ist es, was der französische Finanzminister Valéry Giscard d'Estaing meinte, als er in den 1960er Jahren diesen Vorteil, den die USA genossen, verächtlich \"le privilège exorbi\" oder das \"exorbitante Privileg\" nannte. Er verstand, dass die Vereinigten Staaten aufgrund des erzwungenen Kaufs von US-Staatsanleihen (von den Zentralbanken) niemals eine Zahlungsbilanz- (Währungs-) Krise bekommen würden (SOLANGE DER USD DIE WELTRESERVE-WÄHRUNG IST). Die USA könnten sich billig verschulden, verschwenderisch Geld ausgeben und nicht sofort dafür bezahlen. Stattdessen würde sich die Zahlung für dieses Privileg in Form von Schulden und Dollars im Ausland ansammeln, die von Ausländern auf der ganzen Welt gehalten werden. Eines Tages MUSS der Piper bezahlt werden - aber solange die Musik spielt und die Bowle serviert wird, können alle nach Herzenslust feiern, tanzen und trinken, und die USA können weiterhin die Schönheit des Balls sein. Effektiv können die USA Geld drucken und reale Güter erwerben. Das bedeutet, dass wir Konsumgüter billig importieren können, und die von uns erzeugte Inflation wird in andere Länder exportiert. (Einer der Gründe, warum Entwicklungsländer tendenziell eine höhere Inflation haben).
Diese Anhäufung von überschüssigen Dollars zirkuliert schließlich in Übersee bei Banken, Handelsbrokern, Zentralbanken, Regierungen und Unternehmen. Diese Übersee-Dollars werden als Eurodollar-System bezeichnet - ein Forschungspapier aus dem Jahr 2016 schätzt es auf etwa 13,8 Billionen Dollar. Dieses System unterliegt nicht der offiziellen Zuständigkeit der Federal Reserve, so dass es schwierig ist, genaue Zahlen über seine Größe zu erhalten.
https://preview.redd.it/0hkx5k4c7mr91.png?width=681&format=png&auto=webp&s=4cc2e27adda05bb9859805e754d55a8d328f9f6d
Das bedeutet, dass der Dollar immer künstlich stärker ist, als er sein sollte - und in Zeiten von Finanzkatastrophen ist der Dollar ein sicherer Hafen, da es garantierte Bieter gibt.
All diese auf Dollar lautenden Schulden, gepaart mit dem weltweiten Bedarf an Dollar im Handel, schaffen eine starke und anhaltende Nachfrage nach Dollar. Eine Nachfrage, die befriedigt werden MUSS.
Dadurch entsteht ein weltweites systemisches Risiko - ein unvorhergesehenes Damoklesschwert, das über dem globalen Finanzsystem hängt. Ich habe versucht, dies in meiner Serie Dollar Endgame anzudeuten.
Triffin's Dilemma ist die Grundlage für die von Brent Johnson aufgestellte Dollar Milkshake Theorie.

Der Dollar-Milchshake

Milchshake der Liquidität
Im Jahr 2021 arbeitete Brent mit RealVision zusammen, um eine kurze Zusammenfassung seiner These zu erstellen - das Video findest du hier. Ich sollte anmerken, dass Brent diese Theorie schon seit Jahren hat, seit 2018, als er zum ersten Mal in Podcasts und Interviews auftrat und seine Theorie darlegte (wie zum Beispiel in diesem Video).
Hier ist die Zusammenfassung:

"Die globalen Zentralbanken haben einen riesigen Milchshake der Liquidität geschaffen, dessen wichtigste Zutat der Dollar ist - aber wenn der Dollar steigt, wird dieser Milchshake in die USA gesaugt, was eine teuflische Spirale auslöst, die die Finanzmärkte schnell destabilisieren könnte.
Der US-Dollar ist das Fundament des weltweiten Finanzsystems. Er schmiert die Räder des globalen Handels und Austauschs - die Verfügbarkeit von Dollars, die Kosten von Dollars und die Höhe des Dollars selbst können jeweils einen übergroßen Einfluss auf Volkswirtschaften und Investitionsmöglichkeiten haben.
Wichtiger als die absolute Höhe oder Verfügbarkeit von Dollars ist jedoch die Änderungsrate des Dollarkurses. Wenn sich der Dollarkurs zu schnell verändert und vor allem, wenn er zu schnell ansteigt, tauchen überall Probleme auf (das Ausland wird zahlungsunfähig).
Heute sind jedoch viele Menschen davon überzeugt, dass sowohl die Rolle des Dollars abnimmt als auch die Höhe des Dollars nur noch sinken wird. Die Leute glauben, dass die USA so viele Dollar drucken, dass die Welt mit dem Greenback überschwemmt wird und der Wert des Dollars sinkt.
Nun stimmt es zwar, dass die USA viele viele Dollar drucken - aber auch andere Länder drucken ihre eigenen Währungen in ähnlichem Umfang, so dass sich der Wert theoretisch ausgleichen sollte.
Das verborgene Problem ist jedoch der Unterschied in der Nachfrage. Denke daran, dass das globale Finanzsystem auf dem US-Dollar aufgebaut ist, was bedeutet, dass, selbst wenn sie ihn nicht wollen, jeder ihn braucht, und wenn man etwas braucht, hat man nicht wirklich eine große Auswahl. (Siehe DXY-Index)"

https://preview.redd.it/iikto7ke8mr91.png?width=1643&format=png&auto=webp&s=8fae9f262014e26d8911bac6304becb6c78d80c4
Obwohl viele Länder wie China versuchen, ihre Abhängigkeit von Dollar-Transaktionen zu verringern, wird dies ein sehr langsamer Übergang sein. In der Zwischenzeit steigen die Risiken einer Währungs- oder Staatsschuldenkrise weiter an.
Aber jetzt brauchen Länder wie China und Japan Dollar, um Kupfer von Australien zu kaufen, also schulden die Chinesen und Japaner Dollar und Australien wird in Dollar bezahlt.
Europa und Asien tätigen derzeit nur in sehr begrenztem Umfang Nicht-Dollar-Transaktionen für Öl, so dass sie immer noch Dollar benötigen, um Öl von Saudi-Arabien zu kaufen, und auch hier werden Dollar auf beiden Seiten aufgesaugt.
Asien und Europa brauchen Dollar, um Sojabohnen aus Brasilien zu kaufen. Das zieht noch mehr Dollar an - jeder braucht Dollar für Handelsrechnungen, Währungsreserven der Zentralbanken und die Bedienung der massiven grenzüberschreitenden Dollar-Schulden von Regierungen und Unternehmen außerhalb der USA.
Und die Dollar-Schulden sind der Schlüssel - wenn man die Schulden nicht bedienen oder von seinen Dollar-Schulden weggehen kann, steigen die Finanzierungskosten, was einen großen finanziellen Druck auf die ausländischen Volkswirtschaften ausübt. Nicht nur das, es kann auch zu einer Kreditverknappung und einer raschen Verknappung des Dollarangebots führen.
Die USA sind mit der Abhängigkeit vom Greenback zufrieden, denn ihnen gehört das Abwicklungssystem, von dem die US-Banken profitieren, die alle Dollars abwickeln und als Torwächter des Dollarsystems fungieren, die den Zugang zum System überwachen und kontrollieren, was dem US-Militärapparat zugute kommt, dessen Verteidigungsausgaben höher sind als die jedes anderen Landes, so dass die USA natürlich von der massiven Verwendung des Dollars profitieren.
https://preview.redd.it/0mfp3lkz8mr91.png?width=1129&format=png&auto=webp&s=3cd2afa2377283232bcc685786ed31e73335e504
Andere Länder haben sich natürlich darüber beschwert, dass sie als Geiseln der Situation gehalten werden, aber die Möglichkeiten sind begrenzt. Das bedeutet, dass den USA ständig Dollars entzogen werden müssen, weil andere Länder auf der ganzen Welt sie brauchen, um Geschäfte zu machen, und je mehr Menschen diese Dollars brauchen und wollen, desto größer ist natürlich der Druck auf den Dollarpreis, zu steigen.
Tatsächlich ist die weltweite Nachfrage so hoch, dass das Angebot an Dollars einfach nicht ausreicht, um Schritt zu halten, selbst wenn die USA ständig Geld drucken. Das ist der Grund, warum die Inflation in den USA trotz der vielen QE- und Konjunkturprogramme seit der globalen Finanzkrise 2008 nicht stetig gestiegen ist.
Das eigentliche Risiko entsteht jedoch, wenn andere Volkswirtschaften anfangen, sich zu verlangsamen, oder wenn die USA im Vergleich zu den anderen Volkswirtschaften zu wachsen beginnen. Wenn die Wirtschaftstätigkeit in anderen Teilen der Welt relativ gering ist, sind weniger Dollar im Umlauf, die andere für ihre täglichen Geschäfte nutzen können, und wenn weniger Dollar im Umlauf sind, steigt natürlich der Preis, da die Menschen dieser schwindenden Dollarquelle nachjagen.
Das ist schrecklich für Länder, deren Konjunktur sich verlangsamt, denn gerade wenn sie wirtschaftlich leiden, müssen sie immer noch viele Waren in Dollar bezahlen und ihre Schulden bedienen, die natürlich auch oft in Dollar sind.
So beginnt der Strudel oder, wie wir gerne sagen, der Dollar-Milchshake. Wenn der Dollar steigt, muss der Rest der Welt immer mehr von seiner eigenen Währung drucken, um sie dann in Dollar umzuwandeln, um für Waren zu bezahlen und seine Dollar-Schulden zu bedienen, was bedeutet, dass der Dollar immer weiter steigt. (siehe den nachstehenden Chart)
https://preview.redd.it/9cp25fiv9mr91.png?width=721&format=png&auto=webp&s=499429e679c2b7a6ff36da4639d812d898775257
Erschwerend kommt hinzu, dass die USA in diesem Umfeld wie ein attraktiver sicherer Hafen aussehen, so dass die USA schließlich das Kapital aus dem Rest der Welt anzieht - der Dollar steigt also weiter. Schon bald kommt es zu einer ausgewachsenen Staatsanleihen- und Währungskrise.
https://preview.redd.it/3wuiy3m1amr91.png?width=1129&format=png&auto=webp&s=71a29115cf60b4b6b101c62a305a8665445fbd92
Wir befinden uns jetzt in der letzten Phase des Napalm-Laufs, in der der Dollar und die Dollarwerte noch weiter ansteigen und die globalen Märkte völlig untergraben. Die Zentralbanken versuchen, ungeordnete Bewegungen zu verhindern, aber die globalen Märkte sind größer und die Dynamik ist unaufhaltsam, wenn sie erst einmal eingesetzt hat.
Und das ist das Risiko, das nur sehr wenige Menschen kommen sehen, gegen das sich aber jeder absichern sollte - wenn die USA den Dollar-Milchshake aufsaugen, werden schlimme Dinge passieren.
Das Schlimmste ist, dass es keine Alternativen gibt - was wird man verwenden - den chinesischen Yuan? Den japanischen Yen? den Euro??
Ob es uns nun gefällt oder nicht, wir sind auf den Dollar als Stütze des globalen Finanzsystems angewiesen.
Warum spielt sich das jetzt ab, in Echtzeit? Es führt alles zurück zu einem Tweet, den ich am 16. September gemacht habe.
Das gesamte globale Finanzsystem ist an den Dollar gebunden. Wenn die Fed die Zinssätze für die USA anhebt, hebt sie die Zinssätze für die ganze Welt an. Da die USA die Zinssätze aggressiv anheben und Japan, die EU und China noch weiter hinter der Kurve zurückliegen, verursacht die Fed einen massiven Short Squeeze beim Dollar.
Um eine Finanzkrise im März 2020 zu vermeiden, druckte die Fed Billionen. Dadurch wurde die Inflation angeheizt, die sie dann zu bekämpfen schwor. So begann sie am 16. März 2022 mit der Anhebung der Zinssätze und im Sommer mit der quantitativen Straffung (QT).
QE hatte aufgehört - es flossen keine neuen Dollars mehr in ein System, das eine konstante Nachfrage nach ihnen hat. Schlimmer noch, sie erhöhten die Zinsen völlig blind.
Obwohl die Fed sehr weit hinter der Kurve zurückliegt (was bedeutet, dass sie die Zinsen viel zu spät anhebt, um die Inflation wirklich zu bekämpfen), sind andere Länder noch weiter zurück!
In Japan liegen die Zinssätze derzeit bei 0,00 bis 0,25 %, in der Eurozone bei 1,25 %. Diese Zentralbanken haben kaum damit begonnen, die Zinsen zu erhöhen, und einige schwören sogar, sie an der Nullgrenze zu halten. Indem die Fed die inländischen Zinssätze über die ausländischen anhebt, schafft sie Anreize für so genannte Carry Trades.
Da zwischen dem Yen und dem Dollar eine Zinsspanne besteht, ist es für Händler profitabel, Yen zu leihen (im Grunde Leerverkäufe zu tätigen) und Dollar zu kaufen, die 2,25 % Zinsen einbringen können. Der Spread würde bei etwa 2 % liegen.
Der DXY steigt, und der Yen fällt, was zu einem Teufelskreis führt.
So fließt Kapital aus Japan in die USA. Die USA saugen den Dollar-Milchshake auf und entziehen der Welt Liquidität. Wie ich bereits erwähnt habe, hat dies ernsthafte gefährliche Auswirkungen auf das globale Finanzsystem.
Diejenigen, die nicht glauben, dass dies vorhersehbar war, sollten sich die letzten Absätze von Dollar Endgame Teil 4.3 - "Economic Warfare and the End of Bretton Woods" vom 16. Februar 2022 ansehen:

Die Eliten verstehen dieses Problem sehr gut - aber der Grund, warum das System so lange so gut funktionierte, ist, dass die Verschuldung der USA überschaubar war und es strukturelle Vorteile gab, die den USA immens halfen (tiefe und liquide Anleihe- und Aktienmärkte, große Bevölkerung, großer Anteil am Welthandel).
Aber sie wissen auch, dass das Triffinsche Dilemma der letzte Nagel im Sarg ist - es hat dazu geführt, dass jedes Land im Durchschnitt nur 80 Jahre lang Weltreservewährungs-Inhaber war!
Anders ausgedrückt: Das Gastgeberland (die USA) muss sich entscheiden, entweder keine $$ zu drucken und Waren zu importieren, was den Welthandel zum Erliegen bringt (nicht genug $$ zur Abwicklung des Handels)
ODER
Es muss sich entscheiden, Leistungsbilanzdefizite zu machen (um die Weltwirtschaft am Laufen zu halten) und sich dafür zu verschulden, so dass es schließlich seinen Ausweg drucken muss (was dem USD als Weltreservewährungs-Inhaber den Garaus machen würde).
Dies ist bereits Portugal, Spanien und Großbritannien passiert - alles Kolonialreiche, die ihre Macht verloren, als sie ihre Währung abwerteten und ihre wirtschaftliche Vorherrschaft verloren.
Ich bemerkte dies gegenüber einem Kollegen.
"Dieses System gibt China auch eine nukleare Option - sie haben jetzt einen massiven Hort von über 1 Billion Dollar an Staatsanleihen. Sie haben den Finger auf dem Knopf. Wenn sie sie alle abstoßen, würden sie ein Armageddon auf den Anleihemärkten heraufbeschwören und die Fed zwingen, eine weitere Billion oder so zu drucken, was vielleicht andere Länder erschrecken würde, damit sie ihre Anleihen abstoßen, was die Fed zwingen würde, weitere Billionen zu drucken. Es wäre ein regelrechter Wirtschaftskrieg."
Er entgegnete: "Die Chinesen würden das nicht tun. Es würde ihrer eigenen Wirtschaft schaden, das wäre gleichbedeutend damit, sich selbst in den Fuß zu schießen".
Ich erwiderte: "Aber ihr Fuß ist gegen unseren Kopf gerichtet".

In meiner Arbeit habe ich versucht, das Triffinsche Dilemma und damit auch den Dollar-Milchshake mit anderen Begriffen zu umschreiben, um das Thema aus verschiedenen Blickwinkeln zu betrachten.
Derzeit druckt die Fed kein Geld. Dies führt zu einem Chaos im Welthandel (zu sehen an den Devisenmärkten), weil nicht genug Dollar abfließen, um die Nachfrage zu befriedigen.
Die Fed muss daher das QE-Programm wieder aufnehmen, wenn sie nicht einen Zusammenbruch auf globaler Ebene herbeiführen will. Denk daran, dass all diese ausländischen Länder kaufen, leihen und mit einer Währung handeln müssen, die sie nicht drucken können!
Wir haben hier nicht genug Zeit, um auf den Yen, den Yuan, das Pfund oder den Euro einzugehen - all diese Währungen haben unterschiedliche Makrofaktoren und Handelsfaktoren, die ihre Währungen in hohem Maße beeinflussen. Aber der mit Abstand größte Faktor ist Triffin's Dilemma + der Dollar-Milchshake und ihr verzweifelter Bedarf an Dollar. Das ist der Grund, warum praktisch jede Fiat-Währung gegenüber dem Dollar kollabiert.
Die Fed hat, ob sie es weiß oder nicht, im Grunde die Kontrolle über das globale Finanzsystem. Sie mögen schreien: "Wir erhöhen die Zinsen in den USA, um die Inflation zu bekämpfen, ohne Rücksicht auf die globalen Folgen!" - Aber das ist sehr viel schwieriger zu befolgen, wenn sich große G7-Länder im Anfangsstadium einer ausgewachsenen Währungskrise befinden.
Die schwerwiegendste Auswirkung ist, dass die Fed für die Versorgung aller mit Dollar verantwortlich ist. Wenn sie die Zinsen anhebt, löst sie einen Margencall für die ganze Welt aus. Die Fed muss ihnen aus der Patsche helfen, indem sie sie mit frischen Dollars versorgt, um ihre Währungen zu stabilisieren.
Mit anderen Worten: Die Fed muss die weltweit lockerste und akkommodierendste Geldpolitik betreiben - sie muss die Zinsen so niedrig wie möglich halten und so viel wie möglich drucken, um das globale Finanzsystem am Laufen zu halten. Wenn sie das nicht tun, fangen die Staatsanleihen an zu explodieren, so wie es letzte Woche in Japan und am Mittwoch in England der Fall war.
Und wenn das weltweite Finanzsystem implodiert, müssen sie nicht nur die Vereinigten Staaten, sondern praktisch jede Zentralbank der Welt retten. Dies ist das Damoklesschwert. Das dafür benötigte Geld würde sich auf Dutzende von Billionen belaufen.
Das Dollar-Endspiel rückt näher...

Q&A

(Viele von euch haben mir Nachrichten mit Fragen, Widerlegungen oder Kommentaren geschickt. Ich werde mein Bestes tun, um einige der dringlichsten hier zu beantworten).
Frage: Ich habe deine Arbeit gelesen, du sagtest immer wieder, dass der Dollar an Wert verlieren und weginflationiert werden wird. Jetzt wechselst du die Seite und schließt dich der Fraktion der Dollar-Bullen an. Es scheint, als wüsstest du nicht, wovon du redest!
Antwort: Du verwechselst meine Aussagen. Wenn ich davon spreche, dass der Dollar an Wert verliert, dann meine ich damit, dass sein ABSOLUTER Wert gegenüber den in der Realwirtschaft produzierten Waren und Dienstleistungen sinkt. Dies wird als Inflation bezeichnet. Ich habe diese Aussage im Jahr 2021 getroffen, und bisher hat sie sich als richtig erwiesen, denn die Inflation hat sich seitdem sehr beschleunigt.
Die zunehmende Stärke des Dollars gilt NUR für die Devisenmärkte (Forex) - denk daran, dass DXY, JPY/USD und andere Währungspaare RELATIVE Wertindikatoren sind. Daher können sowohl der JPY als auch der USD real fallen (Inflation), aber wenn eine der beiden Währungen schneller fällt, verliert sie im Verhältnis zur anderen an Wert. Außerdem korrelieren die Devisenmärkte mit der Inflation, sind aber keine exakte Entsprechung für diese.
Ich habe versucht, die gesamte Dollar-Bullen-These in der Schlussfolgerung von Teil 1 des Dollar-Endspiels, das vor weit über einem Jahr veröffentlicht wurde, vorauszusagen:
Wenn die USA den Status als Weltreservewährung verlieren, geschehen zwei Dinge. 1) Ausländische Zentralbanken beginnen damit, ihre riesigen US-Staatsanleihen-/Dollar-Schuldenpositionen massiv abzustoßen, und 2) SWIF-Mitgliedsbanken, die USD für den grenzüberschreitenden Zahlungsverkehr halten (Euro-Dollar), beschließen, diese abzustoßen, da sie die Zeichen der Zeit erkennen und sehen, dass der Wert ihrer Vermögenswerte von Tag zu Tag sinkt. Dies ist eines der vielen Damoklesschwerter, die über dem globalen Finanzsystem schweben. Das Auflösen dieser massiven Währungspositionen wäre wirklich katastrophal. Die Zinssätze könnten über Nacht auf +30% oder mehr ansteigen, was eine unmittelbare Solvenzkrise für die US-Regierung und die meisten Banken, Unternehmen und Länder zur Folge hätte, die auf eine Kreditaufnahme zu niedrigen Zinssätzen angewiesen sind. Der DXY würde eine Zeit lang heftig nach oben peitschen, bevor er durch massiven Verkaufsdruck vom Eurodollar-Markt nach unten gezwungen wird. Andere Währungen würden in volatilen Bewegungen, die den schlimmsten Tagen der frühen Nixon-Krise entsprechen, nach oben und dann wieder nach unten gezogen werden. Aber das ist nur ein Teil der Geschichte.
Ich habe keine Schätzung darüber abgegeben, wann dies geschehen würde oder wie lange der Dollar nach oben getrieben werden würde, denn ich weiß es wirklich nicht.
Ich weiß nur, dass die Fed wahrscheinlich irgendwann die Swap-Linien öffnen wird, wodurch der Eurodollar-Markt mit frischen Greenbacks überschwemmt und die Dollar-Short-Squeeze gelockert wird. Dann wird der Verkaufsdruck auf den Dollar wieder zunehmen. Dies würde sie wahrscheinlich nur tun, wenn die Lage wirklich katastrophal wird - und wir sind auf dem besten Weg dorthin.
Der US-Anleihemarkt befindet sich derzeit in einer katastrophalen Lage, die sich mit der Vorhersage steigender Zinssätze deckt. Die 2-jährige Staatsanleihe liegt bei 4,1 %, vor wenigen Tagen lag sie noch bei 3,9 %. Es ist nur eine Frage der Zeit, bis der Ausverkauf noch schlimmer wird.
Frage: Ausländische Zentralbanken können einen Ausweg finden. Sie können einfach ihre Reserven verwenden, um ihre eigene Währung zurückzukaufen.
Antwort: Sicher, das können sie versuchen. Es wird eine Zeit lang funktionieren - aber was passiert, wenn sie keine Reserven mehr haben, was im Grunde immer passiert? Ich kann mich an kein einziges Mal in der Finanzgeschichte erinnern, dass ein Land in der Lage war, eine Währungsanbindung gegen einen anhaltenden Angriff zu verteidigen.
Globale Devisenreserven
Den Ländern werden die Kugeln ausgehen, wie immer, und im Grunde genommen wird die einzige Option darin bestehen, die Zinsen zu erhöhen, um Kapital wieder in ihr Land zu locken. Aber wie sollen sie das tun, wenn die weltweite Verschuldung im Verhältnis zum BIP bei 356 % liegt? Wenn all diese Länder das tun, werden sie eine weltweite Depression von noch bisher nicht gekanntem Ausmaß auslösen.
Großbritannien zum Beispiel hat etwas mehr als 100 Milliarden Dollar an Reserven. Das reicht vielleicht für ein paar Monate als Deckung auf den Devisenmärkten, bis sie fertig sind.
Darüber hinaus ignorierst man eine weitere bösartige Rückkopplungsschleife. Wenn die ausländischen Banken US-Staatsanleihen verkaufen, treibt dies die Renditen in den USA in die Höhe, wodurch noch mehr Kapital in die USA fließt! Dadurch werden die ausländischen Währungen noch weiter geschwächt.
FX-Rückkopplungsschleife
Um dem Ganzen noch die Krone aufzusetzen, erhöht dies die Kosten für die Aufnahme von Krediten bei US-Staatsanleihen, was bedeutet, dass die USA selbst dann, wenn die Fed den Zusammenbruch der Weltwirtschaft völlig ignoriert, viel mehr Zinsen zahlen wird. Wir werden die Zahlungsunfähigkeit noch schneller erreichen, als alle glauben.
Die 2-jährige Staatsanleihe liegt bei über 4 % - bei 31 Billionen Dollar Schulden bedeutet das, dass wir bei der Refinanzierung allein 1,24 Billionen Dollar an Zinsen zahlen werden. Wer wird diese Schulden kaufen? Die einzige Einrichtung mit einer Bilanz, die groß genug ist, um das zu absorbieren, ist die Fed. Wiederaufnahme von QE in 3...2...1...
Frage: Ich lebe in England. Was kann ich tun, wenn der Pfund kollabiert? Was wird von hier aus geschehen? Wie werden die Regierungen reagieren?
Antwort: England, und Europa im Allgemeinen, stecken in ernsten Schwierigkeiten. Ihr seid derzeit mit einer schweren Energiekrise konfrontiert, die darauf zurückzuführen ist, dass Russland Anfang September Nord Stream 1 abgeschaltet hat, und jetzt, da Nord Stream 2 aufgrund eines mysteriösen Lecks offline ist, wird die Energieversorgung noch knapper werden.
Ganz zu schweigen davon, dass euer Schuldenstand im Verhältnis zum BIP mit 95 % ziemlich hoch ist. Großbritannien ist ein Nettoimporteur und hat immer noch ein Haushaltsdefizit von 15,8 Milliarden Pfund (im ersten Quartal 2022). Im Grunde genommen seid ihr die Vereinigten Staaten ohne einen eigenen großen Energie- und Verteidigungssektor und ohne den Status eines Imperiums und einer Weltreservewährung, den ihr einst hattet.
Das Pfund wird mit ziemlicher Sicherheit weiter gegenüber dem Dollar fallen. Die Bank of England geriet am Mittwoch in Panik, als sie auf einenMargincall in Höhe von 100 Millionen Dollar für britische Pensionsfonds reagierte, und hat nun damit begonnen, langlaufende (10-jährige) Gilts oder Staatsanleihen zu kaufen.
Sie tun dies, weil die Inflation dort noch stärker ansteigt als in den USA und das Land vor einer Währungskrise steht, da sich das Pfund der Parität zum Dollar nähert.
BOE kündigt Anleihekaufprogramm an (28.09.22)
Ich will es nicht beschönigen, die Dinge werden hart werden. Du musst Bargeld vorhalten, sicherstellen, dass dein Job, dein Unternehmen oder deine Investitionen sicher sind (d. h. man hat einen Cashflow) und sich zusammenreißen. Verzichte auf alle unnötigen Anschaffungen. Wenn du kannst, dann wandle deine Reserven in USD um und halte deine Investitionen in Dollar (Computershare), da es wahrscheinlich erstmal weiter steigen wird und deinen Wert besser halten wird als deine eigene Währung.
Wenn deine Regierung weitere Steuersenkungen beschließt, wird das die Haushaltslage nur noch mehr verschlimmern und zu einer weiteren Kreditaufnahme und damit letztlich zu noch mehr Gelddrucken führen.
Frage: Was bedeutet das für Gamestop? und für die heimische US-Wirtschaft?
Antwort: Gamestop wird weiterhin so operieren, wie ich mir sicher bin - in Wachstum investieren und seine Web3-Plattform ausbauen.
Fiat ist von Grund auf kaputt. Soviel ist klar - wir brauchen ein neues Finanzsystem, das nicht auf den fehlerhaften Prinzipien des 16. fraktionierten Bankwesens oder auf "vertrau mir, Bruder" Finanzintermediären basiert.
Meine Hoffnung ist, dass sie an der Spitze eines neuen Finanzsystems stehen, das keine zentralisierten Behörden oder Verwahrer benötigt - eines, in dem man wirklich Eigentümer seiner Vermögenswerte ist und in dem eine Entwertung unmöglich ist.
Ich habe nicht wirklich ausführlich über GME geschrieben, weil andere schon so gut darüber berichtet haben, und ich glaube nicht, dass ich viel hinzuzufügen habe.
Was die US-Wirtschaft angeht, so befinden wir uns immer noch in einer tiefen Rezession, egal was die Politiker sagen - und es wird noch schlimmer werden. Aber unsere wirtschaftlichen Probleme werden, zumindest kurzfristig (6 Monate), aufgrund des bereits erwähnten Dollar-Milchshakes nicht so schwerwiegend sein wie im Rest der Welt.
Die Schuldenkrise ist noch nicht ausgestanden, die Zwischenwahlen rücken näher, und die Regierung gibt weiterhin Geld aus, als gäbe es kein Morgen.
Wenn das globale Währungssystem zusammenbricht, werden die Renditen in die Höhe schnellen, der Schuldenabbau wird sich verschlimmern und unser Dollar wird stärker werden. Die fundamentalen Faktoren verschlechtern sich weiter.
Ich habe genug über die USA berichtet, also lasse ich es dabei bewenden.
Frage: Wusstest du schon länger von der Dollar-Milchshake-Theorie? Was hälst du von ihr?
Antwort: Natürlich wusste ich davon, ich verfolge Brent Johnson, seit er bei RealVision und Macrovoices aufgetreten ist. Er hat die gesamte Theorie im Jahr 2018 in einem langen Interview hier dargelegt. Ich habe es mir vielleicht ein paar Mal angehört, und damals dachte ich, dass er recht hat - ich wusste nur nicht, wie recht er hatte.
Brent und ich sind einander gefolgt und haben uns ein wenig auf Twitter ausgetauscht - sein Name dort ist SantiagoAuFund, ich empfehle dir ihm zu folgen.
https://preview.redd.it/45610yu1hmr91.png?width=584&format=png&auto=webp&s=b0c3713f593ca22303d5183efd7c5aecf46a381c
Ich habe ihn noch nie persönlich getroffen, aber soweit ich weiß, sind seine Vorhersagen genauer als die fast aller anderen Finanzfachleute. Auch hier gebührt ihm alle Anerkennung - er versteht das globale Währungssystem wirklich auf einer fundamentalen Ebene.
Ich habe ihm geglaubt, als er sagte, der Dollar würde sich erholen - aber die Geschwindigkeit und Stärke der Erholung hat mich überrascht. Ich habe gehört, wie er vorhersagte, dass der Dollar auf 150 steigen könnte, was den massiven Druck auf den Dollar nach der Stagflation der 1970er Jahre widerspiegeln würde. Er könnte sehr leicht Recht haben - und das absolute Chaos, das dies für den globalen Handel und das Finanzwesen bedeuten würde, ist unvorstellbar.
Geschichte des Dollars
Frage: Der Pfund und der Euro fallen nur wegen der dortigen Energiekrise. Das war's!
Antwort: Warum fällt dann der Yen? Was ist mit dem Yuan? In diesen Ländern gibt es derzeit keine Energiekrise. Werfen wir einen Blick auf die bisherige Jahresperformance der meisten Fiat-Währungen gegenüber dem Dollar:

• Japanischer Yen: -20,31%
• Chinesischer Yuan: -10,79%
• Südafrikanischer Rand: -10,95%
• Englisches Pfund: -18,18%
• Euro: -14,01%
• Schweizer Franken: -6,89%
• Südkoreanischer Won: -16,73%
• Indische Rupie: -8.60%
• Türkische Lira: -27,95%

Es gibt nur eine Handvoll Währungen, die sich gegenüber dem Dollar positiv entwickelt haben. Am bemerkenswertesten sind der russische Rubel und der brasilianische Real - zwei Länder, die über enorme Rohstoffvorkommen verfügen und starke Exporteure sind. In einem inflationären Umfeld kommen Sachwerte am besten weg, so dass dies keine Überraschung ist.
Frage: Ich möchte mehr erfahren, was kann ich tun um über alles auf dem Laufenden zu bleiben?
Antwort: Du kannst damit beginnen, Bücher zu lesen, Podcasts zu hören und die Nachrichten zu verfolgen, um über die Entwicklungen auf dem Laufenden zu bleiben. Ich habe eine Bücherliste am Ende der Dollar Endgame-Beiträge verlinkt.
Ich werde über die Clownshow der Zentralbanken auf Twitter berichten, du kannst mir dort folgen, wenn du möchtest. Ich werde auch Links zu einigen meiner bevorzugten Makro-Leute einfügen:

• Peruvian Bull (mein einziges Konto)
• Lyn Alden
• Lukas Gromen
• Brent Johnson
• Raoul Pal
• Andreas Steno Larsen
• Jeffrey Snider

Ich bin noch dabei, das Finale von Dollar Endgame fertigzustellen - es sollte bald erscheinen. Außerdem schreibe ich einen Nachtrag zu der Serie, in dem ich Fragen und Bedenken beantworte. Entschuldigung für die Wartezeit.