Forex Retracement Channel Breakout System

This trading system was primarily designed to trade on long time frames (4 hours and up). It is based on the breakout of a dynamic price channel that is calculated by means of the highs and highs of the bars. In this sense, the strategy is based on seeking market entry after 2 events occur:

1. The upward or downward breakout of the price channel.
2. A retracement price move from the breakout. After this pullback, the trader should enter in the direction of the breakout.

The system uses a well-known phenomenon in the markets. Almost always, after a breakout, be it resistance, support, range, or in this case a channel, price makes a temporary retracement against the move. By waiting for this pullback, we make sure not to rush into the market and limit losses in case the breakout is false, as it so often is.

Creation of the price channel

The channel is built by calculating a channel of highs and lows of 10 bars or candles. For this purpose, a 10-period simple moving average (SMA 10) on the maximum price and another SMA 10 on the minimum price can be used. You can also use some modified indicator for MT4 or other trading platform that shows price channels on the chart and can be configured.
So far we have not found such a tool. If you know of any please let us know.

System rules

Long positions

• Wait for a bullish breakout of the price above the upper line of the price channel.
• After the breakout, the trader should wait for the price to pull back and form a two to four bar low within 10 bars of the breakout.
• If these conditions occur, a buy position is opened at the opening of the next bar.

Short positions

• Wait for a bearish price break below the lower line of the price channel.
• After the breakout, the trader should wait for the price to pull back and form a two to four bar high within 10 bars of the breakout.
• If these conditions occur, a sell position is opened at the opening of the next bar.

Exit output

• We can use an initial stop loss based on the following criteria:
  • The stop loss can be placed at a level that corresponds to half of the expected profit on the trade, depending on the currency pair and time frame in which the trade is made (see take profit).
  • We can also place the stop loss on the channel line opposite the position, that is, on the lower line for buy positions and on the upper line for sell positions. If the price reverses its direction and reaches the opposite line of the channel, we can assume that the market is changing its trend.
• If the price reaches the take profit target, we can do the following:
  • Close the position to take profit.
  • Move the stop loss to the entry point and let the trade continue to run.
  • Use a trailing stop that follows the price and protects the profits obtained by the position.

Take Profit
We may use the following recommended take profit targets depending on the time frame and currency pair:

• H4 time frame: 60 pips for EUUSD and 70 pips for GBP/USD.
• Daily time frame: 200 pips for EUUSD and 250 pips for GBP/USD.
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Trading Strategy Example

https://preview.redd.it/w3mzmvqy71k91.png?width=800&format=png&auto=webp&s=989b54f8d6a9a1728410ab517ff31a9f0ecc4a02
In the previous image we can see several examples of signals generated by this system. In some cases, additional positions were opened each time the price retraced to the inside of the channel and back out again, such as in the downtrend leg.
We can say that the rules of the system were not fully complied with in all cases, but as in any strategy, sometimes the trader can apply a little "common sense" if he believes that market conditions make it possible.
In the downtrend section of the chart, we can open a sell position with enough confidence every time the price goes back inside the channel and so does the trader to take advantage of the downward movement of the market.
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Though a bit of the obvious with today's +12.96% gain, it is always good to analyze what the price action means. Today, I will be showing you a series of Technical Analysis that confirms today's breakout, and suggests where we may go from here.

TD Lines

TD Lines are a forex trading strategy developed by Thomas DeMark (using his initials, "TD"), to draw objective trend lines. DeMark believed that supply and demand dictate price action. When demand exceeds supply, prices will advance, and conversely, when supply exceeds demand, prices will fall.
Using his method, we can draw objective trend lines and determine the meaning of a price action, rather than employing subjectivity. We first do this by placing a numerical value on pivots, where a high/low is the high/low for a number of candlestick closes on both sides of a candlestick (a pivot). For GME, I have marked the recent TD pivots below.
TD Pivots
The most recent confirmed pivots (without a question mark), reading from right to left, are 3, 2, 1,1, 4, etc. These numbers represent that these are the highest/lowest close, of the candlesticks to the left and right. For example, a "red 3" means that there are three candlesticks that closed higher, both before and after this candlestick (the pivot).
To draw TD Lines, we connect either the most recent green-to-green or red-to-red, and if possible, preference is given to pivots that are the same numbers, otherwise, we connect the most recent two pivots. Here, we connect the most recent green 2 with the previous green 2, and the most recent red 3 with the previous red (there is no 3, so we'll take the most recent low).
TD Lines
How can we verify that today's price action resulted in a valid breakout? TD Lines have specific criteria to determine whether they are breakouts or breakdowns, and any one of these qualifiers can be met for confirmation.
TD Line Qualifiers
Today's price action met Upside Breakout Qualifier 1, where yesterday's price bar was a down close, and today's price bar broke through the TD Line. Upside Breakout Qualifier 3 was also met, where the difference previous bar's close and the bottom of its wick was below the TD Line ("buying pressure" is the difference between the previous bar’s close and its "true low," which is the lower of that bar’s low or the previous bar’s close).
With two qualifiers, we definitely have a breakout. Now, what does that mean for the future price action of GME?

Volume Profile Fixed Range (VPFR)

Any price action analysis is useless without considering volume. Here, we will be using the VPFR, anchored to 11/22/2021, the date of our most recent high close. Volume Profiles are useful to see what volume has occurred at which price levels, with a red Point-of-Control (POC) line showing the price with the highest volume. We see here that for the last three weeks, GME has been trading the mostly at the POC.
VPFR
Volume Profiles also have a series of peaks and valleys, called high value nodes (HVN) and low value nodes (LVN). The price action has a tendency to stay around the HVN, as the HVN shows where the most volume happens at what price. Similarly, the price action will tend to blow through or find resistance at the boundaries of the LVN. In a way, the HVN is almost like a magnet, where the price actions tends to revert to the mean (though technically, the HVN just shows where most of the volume happens, and is not the causality for why the price action will tend to stay at that price level).

Anchored Volume Weighted Average Price (AVWAP)

The AVWAP is an indicator that is anchored to a date, and the average price is calculated from that date, weighted with volume. When we turn on some of the AVWAPs for GME, you will notice that they interestingly line up with some of the the VPFR HVNs.
AVWAP
Specifically, we find these AVWAPs coinciding with the HVN/POC and LVNs:

• 10/06/2020 AVWAP @ 117.87
• 04/03/2020 AVWAP @ 103.08
• 08/15/2019 AVWAP @ 89.23

These AVWAPs define the trading range GME has been in for the last three weeks, with the 10/06/2020 AVWAP @ 117.87 being touched three times, and the 08/15/2019 AVWAP @ 89.23 being touched twice.
The 10/06/2020 AVWAP @ 117.87 can also be seen as the current upper resistance in our channel, and if we turn on the next 10/30/2020 AVWAP @ 126.41, we will see that it coincides with another HVN.
Next Pivot
This is our next pivot for GME, as between the 10/06/2020 AVWAP @ 117.87 and the 10/30/2020 AVWAP @ 126.41, there is a big LVN that the price action has to traverse. If we don't get additional buying pressure, expect GME to bounce back to around the POC at the 04/03/2020 AVWAP @ 103.08.
However, since according to the TD Lines, we have already broken out, if we get good buying volume, there is a higher probability that GME will rally through to the 10/30/2020 AVWAP @ 126.41, which requires a price action of ~+10%. After today's +12.96% on nothing, that doesn't seem so implausible, provided that we get a continued rally on the macro (i.e. S&P 500, Nasdaq 100).
Now that we've seen that some Technical Analysis confirmed our breakout, and the next possible move up (or back down to the POC), where does GME go from there?

Fibonacci Extension

Note that this part is highly subjectively, due to how you place the Fib Extensions.
In placing Fib Extension range, where I place the 0.786 levels right at the wicks of the current candles, and the 0.618 level at the 10/06/2020 AVWAP @ 117.87, we can see the 0.000 level is at 169.32. Given that we are approaching the next futures cycle and gamma spike, there is a possibility that GME can get up to at least 169.32.
Fibonacci Extension #1
Again, this is totally subjective, and if you wanted to place the 0.786 level at the 10/06/2020 AVWAP @ 117.87, the 0.000 level has a price of 235.44. This seems a little high to me, though that is a subjective conclusion. I would love to be proved wrong here!
Fibonacci Extension #2
Or, perhaps it is more in the middle, where the 0.618 level is at the 10/30/2020 AVWAP @ 126.41, making the 0.000 level at 192.27, which just happens to coincide with the highest AVWAP for GME, at the 05/10/2021 AVWAP @ 193.43.
Fibonacci Extension #3
Your guess is as good as mine, on where GME will peak at the next rally, or if we are ready for MOASS. Whatever that may happen, and whether there will be another futures expiration rally or not, we know that the price is wrong. GME moving +12.96% on no news means that there is quite a bit of buying pressure being suppressed by the shorts. All we can do is BUY HODL DRS.
See you all on the moon.

Breakout system based on the clique equation

In this article we are going to explain a breakout trading system based on the clique equation , a variant of pivot points used to determine important price levels in the market.
Through its formulas, the clique equation determines 4 support levels (S1, S2, S3, and S4) and 4 resistance levels (R1, R2, R3, and R4) that can be used to trade. Of these levels, the most important are S3, S4, R3 and R4.
The H4 and L4 levels, while typically used as stop loss levels for price reversal trades made from the H3 and L3 levels, are actually also price levels for breakout trades themselves.
If the price breaks up through R4 or breaks down below S4, there is a high chance that it will continue in that direction. According to some traders when such a breakout occurs in the S&P 500, you can expect a move of up to 7 points, which is, as you will understand, a VERY significant proportion of a typical day's volatility.
As always, it is recommended to evaluate this trading system with a demo account before using it to trade with real money.

Strategy Rules

As stated above, it is a breakout system in which the buy/sell position is opened when the R4/S4 level is broken. Pretty simple really. However, the trader must be careful and use stop losses in case the price makes a false breakout and ends up bouncing off the R4/S4 level.
Recommended trading instruments: This system can be used in any market, including Forex, precious metals and stock indices such as the S&P 500.
Recommended time frames: It is recommended to use the system in medium-term time frames, from H1 to D1, where the effect of the calculated levels of the Camarilla equation is better appreciated. Smaller time frames such as 15 minutes and 5 minutes can be used to refine the input.
System indicators:

• 1 H1, H4 or D1 Japanese candlestick chart.
• Clique Equation. For those who use the Metatrader 4 platform you can download this indicator here.

- Opening buy positions: A buy position is opened when the price breaks and closes above the R4 level.
- Opening sell positions: A sell position is opened when the price breaks and closes below the S4 level.
- Stop loss: Given the possibility that the price will bounce off the S4/R4 level, it is recommended to place a stop loss AT LEAST on the S3/R3 level.
We say at least as it may seem to some traders that these levels are far removed from the opening level of the position. Therefore, we can say that the stop loss in this system is subjective (as in many systems). In the S&P 500, for example, a stop loss of 2 points or less is usually enough.
- Take Profit: Since the Camarilla equation does not specify levels above S4 and R4, knowing when to exit a trade with a profit can be somewhat subjective.
Taking profits can often be a prudent course of action as it allows us to lock in profits and prevent a winning trade from turning into a losing one. In this case, it is recommended that the take profit target be at least equal to the stop loss in order to have a Profit:Loss ratio of at least 1:1. Of course this depends on each operator.

System in Action: Example

Sell ​​Trade Example on S4 Bearish Breakout
In this example from the FTSE (the UK equivalent of the S&P 500 index), we can clearly see a break below the S4 level and the subsequent opening of a sell trade.
In this case, the price fell sharply and reached the profit-taking level used in less than half an hour, which was placed 20 points from the entry price.
Now of course not all breakouts from the S4/R4 levels are as clean as this one. Sometimes false breakouts occur, or moves that cross the breakout level up and down without the price having a clear direction.
Therefore, it is always advisable to use stop losses to limit possible losses. Before thinking about what he stands to gain, the trader must keep in mind what he stands to lose.
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