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Eve Tycoon: When to 0.01isk and Not, Order strategies, and Donchian Channel uses [Trade Theory 2]
Okay so I did my social commentary post and I still have this trade theory post to share and that draft proposal on short selling/call & put options to eventually do. I've been continuing to jot down ideas like I have from last week, and I pretty much already did a writeup on the issue of information access regarding EMDR and API's on how they affect the markets. I also have some thoughts about the benefits of setting goals and milestones, and the potential for waging war as an investment; but I'm not sure if I'll make those into writeups.
So I think the main thing I wanted to address was when to 0.01isk and when not too. Or more in general my transition from day trading to cycle/trend trading which I've done over the past couple weeks. Sorry if I'm repeating some topics I've mentioned before, since originally this was an offshoot from my thoughts on the last progress report.
To start off, before I give you some specifics let me elaborate on my experience so far with this transition. Last week, or the week covered in my last progress report, I was a little more stressed out because I had no idea what I was doing. All I knew was that while I wasn't spending that much time updating orders, my buy/sell strategy only looked at the current top orders and it was very stressful worrying whether those prices would swing into unprofitability before I could sell my stock. This is why in the previous weeks I would try to stick to items that were demand heavy and supply short, so at the very least I could liquidate my stock quickly and move it into another product if it was no longer within my threshold range. I didn't like this, while I could still print isk like paper with this method, if I kept playing this way it would no longer be fun for me. So while I noticed some cycles before, I decided to act on them and place orders taking advantage of these cycles. The main worry here being whether my order would be filled in a timely fashion or would traders sweep in and endlessly put orders on top of mine. To my surprise this was not the case, and I had discovered a completely new way to play the markets that again shifted more of the hard work into mental work. I'll show you the graphs later sometime this weekend. But it's kinda funny, my free isk went up from 0.5 to 1B that night that I did the progress report and currently it's over 2.5B. In evenexus my purchases showed a marked decrease but my sales went up a fair amount too, and since that last progress report I've had 2 days of >200m profits while still maintaining my goal of ~100m on the other days. Overall this shows that with this strategy of trading I'm making higher margins with less capital investments with the opportunity for spike profits. I'm only lacking time/willingness to locate higher isk items that fit my trading criteria.
When to 0.01 isk, When to not.
So I went back to review some of my ideologies on creating efficient markets and how they are supposed to work at lower margins to increase volume. But this ideology when put into practice needs to consider the price elasticity of products.
For those unfamiliar with this concept the general idea is that when the price of an item increases, the demand decreases (and vice versa). It is considered more elastic when the percentage demand decreases faster than the percentage change in price. It's considered inelastic when demand changes relatively little with large changes in price. It also applies to supply, since we aren't sourcing them ourselves, but you know supply increases with increased price.
Let's start with an example of a new product just introduced by CCP, but let's say it's not in the patch notes and there's no hype to it and it trades like a regular commodity. In other words, this is a product with an unestablished market and is trading inefficiently with demand and supply potential but not realized. (to reiterate from a past post trade inefficiency = few traders in the market leaving product at wide margins that few consumers or suppliers want to engage in) So naturally we ask what is our first step?
High Margin, low volume phase
Do we 0.01isk and take advantage of the high profit margins?
No we slash the price until it falls into a range where more suppliers are willing to sell and more consumers are willing to buy. Or in other words we bring it down from prices where the product displays inelasticity to a point where the product starts to behave more elastic.
So at this point we can place one buy and one sell order way above and way below the competitors' order right? Nope, unless you're comfortable sticking a huge order there. Why? Well say your buy order is filled and there is enough to fill your competitor's, he can now severely undercut you. The sell side isn't as bad, you just don't make as much profit, buy you've still secured a sale that doesn't go to your competitor.
So how do you amend this? On the sale side, don't worry you'll figure out the minimum amount you need to undercut to secure your sales with time. The buy side is more important, this is where multiple orders is important. If you have enough free orders, stagger the amount you want to buy leading up to that elastic price range. If you don't like how high the prices are, or if you think the product is in a bubble but want to make it a consistent revenue stream; you can make multiple sell orders staggering the price downwards as well.
When I state bubble, I'm referring to the notion that some items in your hub are trading at significantly higher prices than other hubs. If there is enough supply in these other hubs, an importer can come and slash prices before you're ready. Also if the product is manufacturer within the time frame you expect to buy and sell, they can flood the market as well.
Alternatively, if you believe there are large bulk suppliers that occasionally fill buy order in large quantities, you can place a larger buy order somewhere at the bottom point of the quantity you expect them to hit. Low Margin, high volume phase
Okay so now we've slashed the prices to a range where a lot of suppliers and consumers are selling and buying. All of a sudden 0.01iskers, 0.01iskers everywhere. Oh the HUMANITY! How do we stop them? Is now the time to 0.01 isk? Not if you value your sanity. We do what we always do, slash those margins down some more. Make them pay, make them suffer for ruining your nice revenue stream.
At this point it's a losing battle, 0.01iskers are stupid and will stay as long as it's within their profit margins and at the quickest it will take a few days to clear out most of them. It's hard to get rid of all of them. But after a few days of minimal margin, they'll start leaving as they sell out their stock for the next item with good margins or just leave their orders unattended hoping it will eventually be filled so that they don't take a loss. A few will stay and continue to 0.01 isk, but generally they'll usually be cautious with smaller orders and the margins will open back up again.
normal margin, stabilized volume phase
So at this point your product has moderate margins and a few active 0.01iskers trading negligible volume. Okay now do I 0.01 isk?No, you never 0.01 isk! Always at the very least 100.01isk or if the price is so small 1.01isk. Every now and then they'll slip up and not notice, giving them headaches and making it less worth it to trade in your relatively low profit margin item. Eventually if you're lucky, you'll be left with maybe one or two other traders who aren't constantly updating. And basically you'll end up taking turns getting orders filled.
If the margins open up too wide again then the whole process repeats, but it might be worth it to you if you make enough in the high margin phase to get through the 0.01isking phase. Or if there are trade imbalances such as supply>demand and you don't want to have extra stock, you may ride through the various phases.
Now this is an overly generalized example. But I'll leave it up to you to adapt this strategy, otherwise I'd have ten pages to write on small variants.
In summary it's not too far from my idealized market. You can't force a product into behaving efficiently, there has to be enough trader support. This is based on the fact that traders in a sense value their time and effort in terms of profit. At certain levels an item isn't worth trading anymore with certain strategies. Traders typically determine whether they should trade and item by their (profit margin x volume). And since 0.01iskers are only able to work with the current profit margin, this greatly limits the products they'll work with and leaves many markets in need of more traders to become efficient. So for these markets, there is a need for more complex strategies to achieve profits that make trading that item worth it. Essentially this creates a higher barrier to entry and there naturally are less traders in these markets.
So you'll usually see items with expanding and contracting profit margins as these more transient traders pass through (0.01iskers). Forcing markets through periods of inefficiency to hyper efficiency. So therefore if you only seek to maximize your profits by taking advantage of larger margins, you can view it as being selfish and not actively trying to work for the market to make it more efficient and better for everyone. Or you can realize that you're merely an agent that moves product based on supply and demand with little real control; you can manipulate it to some extent but unless you have a monopoly or have organized a cartel, I suspect you'll find an easier time trading on opportunities rather than trying to force them. Additionally, the better you are it, not only will you be able make more profit overall but you can buy high then sell low and still make profit. When you can do this (buy high and sell low) you can say you are a professional trader and are helping to make the market more efficient.
(for clarification you can buy high when the cycle is at a low point and sell low when the cycle is at a high point still maintaining a profit margin. For short-term trading this logic still works but is a little more of a stretch... you place a buy order higher than the current rate and sell lower than the current rate... therefore make it more efficient but not as much as the former)(there are plenty of other ways to buy high and sell low) (by helping make the market more efficient, I mean encouraging higher traded volume at fair market price, increasing the velocity of trades to get items to consumers quicker and give isk to suppliers speedier)
Other General Strategies
time zoning - updating at irregular hours/ randomly
cycle trading - kinda hit upon this above, instead of trading based on phases progressing through various price levels and elasticity, trade based on price differentials based on supply/demand cycling
strategic order placement - detailed above just wanted to list it here
buy order price fixing/elevation - set a big buy order, fixes the buy price. (works best on a low supply/ high demand) Price will begin to elevate, if there's effectively no importing or manufacturing.
So while Bolligner bands are a little different, we can use a similar technique with the donchian channel. But instead the median price will never exceed the bounds of the channel. So how do we use this? It's pretty much an easy way to check the trade imbalance of an item. If the median is near the top more sell orders are being filled than buy orders (demand>supply) and vice versa. To some extent you might see cycles in some items and when they are at the bottom we can buy for good prices in general (it's always trickier in application) and sell near the top. Since we can only sell what we buy, we have to enter these cycles at the bottom, as compared to real markets where shortselling is a thing. (and this post is what led me thinking up a proposal to CCP for shorting and options, but more on that another time)
Well that's all I got for today, and that should finish the posts and ideas I wanted to share from last week. I was going to try to go into more detail about cycle and trend trading (based in supply/demand), but the basics are similar to the phase trading (based on price elasticity) example above. And those of you with ingenuity probably already figured out how to adapt it for cycle and trend trading anyways.
Also, remember these are generalizations meant to give you insight, they will require some messing with to get it to work for you. TL;DR Real traders buy high and sell low. Anyone who tells you otherwise doesn't know what they're talking about. Also always 0.01 isk and never undock or leave your keyboard, unless you know what you're doing.
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