“I felt a great disturbance in the force as if millions of voices slowly and wildly got together and then there was an uprising against the government and the financial institutions” 

Good Friday evening to all of you here on stocks! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning March 14th, 2022.

Federal Reserve expected to raise interest rates in week ahead, as Ukraine crisis adds volatility - (Source)

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell testifies before Congress in the week ahead, and markets will hang on what he says regarding how the Russia-Ukraine conflict could affect Fed policy.
Investors may take the Federal Reserve’s first post-pandemic interest rate hike in stride, while uncertainty over the Ukraine crisis continues to hang over markets.
The Fed has clearly broadcast that it intends to raise its target fed funds rate by a quarter percentage point from zero, and it is expected to announce that move at the end of its two-day meeting Wednesday. The central bank should also reveal new forecasts for interest rates, inflation and the economy.
There are a few economic reports of note in the week ahead, including the producer price index Tuesday, retail sales Wednesday and existing home sales Friday.
“Earnings are over. Monetary policy is obviously going to be important here. I don’t see the Fed surprising anyone next week,” said Steve Massocca, managing director at Wedbush Securities. “It’s going to be a quarter point and then step into the background and watch what’s happening in Europe.”
Stocks fell for the past week, with the Nasdaq Composite the worst performer with a 3.5% decline. Meanwhile, the small-cap Russell 2000, which outperformed the three major indexes, lost 1% for the week.
A surge in oil prices spooked investors, with crude spiking to $130 at the beginning of the week but trading back below $110 on Friday.
The S&P 500 was down about 2.9% for the week. Energy stocks were the top performers, up nearly 1.9% and the only positive major sector.

Fed ahead

The impact of Russian sanctions on commodities markets and the lack of clarity around the outcome of the war in Ukraine are likely to keep volatility high across the financial markets.
The central bank’s statement and comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Wednesday will be closely watched for guidance on how Fed officials view the Ukraine crisis, and how much it could affect their outlook and the path for interest rates.
“His guidance is probably not going to be all that different from what he had to say in the [Congressional] testimony. Basically, downside risks to the growth outlook have increased. Upside risks to inflation have risen,” said Mark Cabana, head of U.S. short rates strategy at Bank of America.
Because Russia is a giant commodities producer, its assault on Ukraine and resulting sanctions have set off a rally in commodities markets that has made already-scorching inflation even hotter. February’s consumer price index was up 7.9%, and economists said rising gasoline prices could send it above 9% in March.
Gasoline at the pump jumped nearly 50 cents in the past week to $4.33 per gallon of unleaded, according to AAA.
Market pros see surging inflation as a catalyst that will keep the Fed on track to raise interest rates. However, uncertainty about the economic outlook could also mean the central bank might not hike as much as the seven rate increases that some economists forecast for this year.
Cabana expects Fed officials to forecast five hikes for 2022 and another four next year. The Fed previously anticipated three increases in both years. Cabana said the Fed could cut its forecast for 2024 to just one hike, from the two in their last outlook.
Any comments from the Fed on what it plans for its nearly $9 trillion balance sheet will also be important, since officials have said they would like to begin to scale it back this year after they start hiking interest rates. The Fed replaces maturing Treasury bonds and mortgages as they roll off, and it could slow that in a process Wall Street has dubbed “quantitative tightening” or QT.
“That they will be ready to flip the switch on QT in May is our base case, but we acknowledge there are risks that this will be skewed later,” said Cabana. He said if the Fed finds it is not in a position to raise interest rates as much as it hoped, it could delay shrinking the balance sheet right away, which would leave policy looser.

Bond market liquidity

The 10-year Treasury yield topped 2% at its highest level Friday, after dipping below 1.7% earlier this month as investors sought safety in bonds. Bond yields move opposite price.
“It’s inflation and inflation expectations. Treasurys behave in this environment a little differently than a flight to quality asset,” Cabana said “That’s a different dynamic than we’ve observed. You may see a flight to quality into Treasurys, but the Treasurys are reflecting higher inflation expectations.”
Cabana said the markets are showing signs of concern around the uncertainty in Ukraine. For instance, the Treasury market is less liquid.
“We have seen that the Treasury market has become more volatile. We’re seeing bid-ask spreads have widened. Some of the more traditionally less liquid parts of the market may have become less liquid, like TIPS and the 20-year. We’re also seeing market depth thinning out,” he said. “This is all due to elevated uncertainty and lack of risk-taking willingness by market participants, and I think that should worry the Fed.”
But Cabana said markets are not showing major stress.
“We’re not seeing signs the wheels are falling off in funding or that counterparty credit risks are super elevated. But the signs there are very much that all is not well,” he said.
“The other thing we continue to watch loosely are funding markets, and those funding markets are showing a real premium for dollars. Folks are paying up a lot to get dollars in a way they haven’t since Covid,” he said.
Cabana said the market is looking for reassurance from the Fed that it is watching the conflict in Ukraine.
“I think it would upset the market if the Fed reflected a very high degree of confidence in one direction or another,” he said. “That seems very unlikely.”

Dollar strength

The dollar index was up 0.6% on the week and it has been rising during Russia’s attack on Ukraine. The index is the value of the dollar against a basket of currencies and is heavily weighted toward the euro.
Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex, also points out that the dollar funding market is seeing some pressure but it is not strained.
“The dollar is at five-year highs today against the yen. That’s not what you would expect in a risk-off environment,” he said. “That’s a testament to the dollar’s strength.”
Chandler said it’s possible the dollar weakens in the coming week if it follows its usual interest rate hike playbook.
“I think there might be a buy the rumor, sell the fact on the Fed,” he said. “That’s typical for the dollar to go up ahead of the rate hike and sell off afterwards.”

Oil on the boil

Oil gyrated wildly this past week, touching a high not seen since 2008, as the market worried there would not be enough oil supply due to sanctions on Russia. Buyers have shunned Moscow’s oil for fear of running afoul of financial sanctions, and the U.S. said it would ban purchases of Russian oil.
West Texas Intermediate crude futures jumped to $130.50 per barrel at the beginning of the week but settling Friday at $109.33.
“I think the market getting bid up to $130 was a little premature,” said Helima Croft, head of global commodities strategy at RBC, noting the U.S. ban on Russian oil. She said the run-up in prices Monday came as market players speculated there would be a broader embargo on Russian oil, including Europe, its main customer.
“Right now, the market is too extreme in either way. I think it’s justified at $110. I think it’s justified over $100. I don’t think we’re headed for an off-ramp, and I think we have room to go higher,” she said.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

S&P Sectors for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #3!)

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #4!)

Gas Prices Hit A New Record

Crude oil may have reversed lower this week, but it's hard to tell when drivers head to the pumps. The national average for a gallon of regular gasoline has continued to rise to hit a record high of $4.33 in data from AAA going back to 2004. While prices typically rise this time of year, the vertical move this year has meant prices have grown at a much more rapid rate than normal.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Doomsday Fear Index

During the Cold War, American children and adults were educated on how to best protect themselves from a nuclear explosion. This included measures from the silly "duck and cover" campaign to nuclear fallout shelter instructions. If you happen to be curious about the federal government's current recommendations in regards to protection from a nuclear blast, you can read up on the instructions here. We're not sure how focused people will be about wearing a mask in the event of nuclear fallout, but we guess you can never be too careful!
With tensions between Western nations and Russia reaching levels not seen since the Cold War, we took a look at Google Trends to identify the level of fear in the American population with respect to the current war in Ukraine. We looked at the search volumes for terms like nuclear war, WWIII, canned food, Potassium Iodide, and gas mask. Searches for many of these terms hit five-year highs in the early days of the Russian invasion but have subsided since. The current level is still well above normalcy, but fears appear to have eased over the last week as the West's retaliation has been almost entirely economic (or maybe there is no internet service in the fallout shelters). The aggregate index is pictured below.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Below are charts of each search term we utilized in the composition of our index. Potassium Iodide, the compound utilized to mitigate the effects of excessive radiation exposure, is the only term that remains at a five-year high in terms of search volume. While searches for some of these terms were actually much higher during the early days of COVID, they all experienced upticks in the last few weeks. All-in-all, based on search trends based on fears of a nuclear situation or war with Russia spiked when the Ukraine invasion first started, but those fears have over the course of the last week.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Investor Sentiment Remains Volatile

Considering equities and other risk asset prices continue to swing violently, so too have readings on investor sentiment. The weekly AAII survey of individual investors saw the percentage of respondents reporting as bullish fall back below 25% this week after rising above 30% last week. While that is not the largest drop in recent months (the second week of January saw bullish sentiment fall 7.9 percentage points compared to 6.4 today), it nonetheless reaffirmed that investor confidence is shaky, if not undecided, at the moment.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

The drop in bullish sentiment was mostly picked up by those reporting as bearish. Bearish sentiment rose 4.4 percentage points to 45.8%. While that reading is roughly 15 percentage points above the historical average for bearish sentiment, the reading is still lower than an even more pessimistic reading only two weeks ago when more than half of respondents reported as bearish.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

With the inverse moves in bullish and bearish sentiment, the bull-bear spread has pulled back to -21.8. As with bullish and bearish sentiment, even if that does not set a new low, it is only in the 5th percentile of readings going back to the start of the survey.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

After the largest single-week decline in nearly 20 years two weeks ago, neutral sentiment has been clawing its way back into the range it was in for most of the past year. Gaining another 2 percentage points this week, the reading is now back above 30%.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Across each category of the report, there have been sizable swings in the past two months. To highlight this, in the chart below we show the eight-week rolling average of the absolute week over week change for each sentiment reading (bullish, bearish, and neutral) over the past 20 years. Over the history of the survey, weekly changes have gravitated towards smaller swings meaning the past decade is structurally a bit different relative to the decade before that. That being said, the weekly swings in the AAII readings on sentiment have been some of the largest of any period of the post-Global Financial Criss era. In fact, not even the COVID crash saw such volatility in sentiment (given optimism collapsed and then remained muted for some time rather than swing back and forth) while the only times this average was as high as now in the past decade were the spring of 2013, February 2016, and January 2019.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

More Volatility Likely in March, Recent Lows Remain Key

Thus far the market has been unable to find any real traction in the historically bullish month of March. As of today’s close DJIA is down 3.72% in March. S&P 500 is off 4.65%, NASDAQ is fallen 6.95% while the Russell 2000 is lower by 4.15%. Today’s gain by the small-cap Russell 2000 is somewhat encouraging and adds to the accumulating evidence that the market may finally be coming to terms with Ukraine, inflation, and the Fed. As we have noted in recent posts, investor sentiment has reached bearish levels last seen at the start of the covid-19 pandemic, S&P 500 has held its intra-day low reached on February 24 and VIX, although elevated, has not exploded to full-blown panic levels.
In addition, we can add March’s typical performance over the last 21-years to this list. As you can see in the chart above, the market has tended to selloff early in March and find a bottom around the sixth trading day of the month. Today was the sixth trading day. Afterwards the trend remains choppy, but it is generally higher until the end of the month.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Be Greedy When Others Are Fearful

On this 13th Anniversary Global Financial Crisis Low, we may want to heed the wise words of one of the greatest investors of all time. “You try to be greedy when others are fearful, and fearful when others are greedy.” – Warren Buffett
So we ask: are we hitting another March market low on the 13th anniversary of the Global Financial Crisis low? It’s too early to be sure, but today’s rally and the recent dire projections and fearful sentiment are encouraging. CNN’s Fear & Greed Index shown above has clearly reached the extreme fear levels associated with market lows and turns.
Last week we posted how it was beginning to look like Investors Intelligence Bullish and Bearish Advisors % were indicating that contrary bearish sentiment was near bottoming levels. This may not be the final low, but the bottoming process is clearly underway. Sit tight and stick to your system.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Country ETFs Falling Below Pre-COVID Highs

Headed up to the two-year anniversary of the COVID crash low (3/23/20), equities around the globe have been experiencing some of the worst pullbacks since that period. In the table below, we show the country ETFs of the countries tracked in our Global Macro Dashboard as well as their year and month to date performance, performance since each respective 52-week high as of 2/19/20 (the S&P 500 and a handful of other global indices last high before entering bear markets during the COVID crash) and current 52-week high. We also show where they are currently trading with respect to their 50-DMAs.
Given the degree of declines recently, nearly everything is oversold with six countries' readings now 'off the chart' as they trade well over three standard deviations below their 50-DMAs. The average country ETF is also down double digits on both a YTD basis and relative to their respective 52-week highs. Of the countries shown below, only Brazil (EWZ) and South Africa (EZA) are higher YTD with gains of 17.56% and 9.27%, respectively. Russia (RSX), meanwhile, is obviously down the most having been cut by over 75%.
The average country ETF is now down over 20% from its 52-week high, and only four of those 52-week highs have come since the start of 2022 whereas most were set last spring. As for how the current drawdowns have eaten into the post-COVID rallies, below we also show the percent change of these ETFs relative to their 52-week highs as of 2/19/20. In other words, where each ETF is trading with respect to their pre-COVID highs. Currently, there are only 8 country ETFs that remain above their respective pre-COVID highs. Seven others, meanwhile, have now declined more than 20% below their pre-COVID highs. Of course, Russia is once again down the most dramatically from those levels falling more than 75%.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Below we show the charts of those eight countries that are currently still in the green relative to pre-COVID highs. The recent rough patch is not exactly identical for all countries though. Whereas the downtrends for some like Taiwan (EWT) or the US (SPY) are bringing these ETFs to multimonth lows, others like Canada (EWC) and Norway (ENOR) have more or less trended sideways. Since retaking pre-COVID highs, only Australia (EWA) has gone on to recently retest/fall back below those levels which it did in late January. While it would mean much further downside for the likes of EWT, SPY, and EWC, those prior highs could mark one area of tangible support for these other countries.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

The Little Guy Eying Inflation

Looking across the range of issues surveyed by the NFIB, labor and inflation remain front and center of what most concerns small businesses. As shown below, the combined percentage of respondents reporting either cost or quality of labor as their most important problem continues to be the most prevalent topic with 33% of firms reporting as such. That is down slightly from 34% in January thanks to the decline in quality of labor. Most other categories fell to or remained at record lows. Such was the case for Poor Sales, Competition from Big Business, Government Requirements and Red Tape, and Financial & Interest Rates.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Last month the percentage of respondents reporting inflation as their biggest problem went unchanged from the December reading of 22%. This month that reading gained another 4 percentage points to cross above a quarter of all respondents for the first time on record going back to 1986. Behind labor concerns (the combined reading of cost and quality of labor), this is the most commonly reported problem, and based on the action in commodities prices over the last couple of weeks, this reading will almost certainly increase again next month.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

That means what has usually been the second most important problem on a combined basis recently, government requirement and taxes, dropped in the ranking. In fact, the 3 percentage point decline in government requirements offset the one percentage point increase in taxes to tie the November 2005 reading for the lowest on record. As we have noted in the past, the past few presidential cycles have structurally seen lower readings in these indices when Republicans were in office and vice versa when Democrats have held the presidency. With Biden currently in office, the record low reading is somewhat unusual from this political perspective.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

That is not the only category that has fallen to record lows. Poor sales and competition from big business have both fallen dramatically in the past couple of years.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the most notable companies reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-

(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)

(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)

(CLICK HERE FOR THE NOTABLE EARNINGS BEFORE THE OPEN ON MONDAY!)

Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

Monday 3.14.22 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Monday 3.14.22 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK# 1!)

Tuesday 3.15.22 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 3.15.22 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 3.16.22 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 3.16.22 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 3.17.22 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 3.17.22 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 3.18.22 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK!)

Friday 3.18.22 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())

(NONE.)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead stocks. :)

Good Friday evening to all of you here on StockMarket! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning March 14th, 2022.

Federal Reserve expected to raise interest rates in week ahead, as Ukraine crisis adds volatility - (Source)

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell testifies before Congress in the week ahead, and markets will hang on what he says regarding how the Russia-Ukraine conflict could affect Fed policy.
Investors may take the Federal Reserve’s first post-pandemic interest rate hike in stride, while uncertainty over the Ukraine crisis continues to hang over markets.
The Fed has clearly broadcast that it intends to raise its target fed funds rate by a quarter percentage point from zero, and it is expected to announce that move at the end of its two-day meeting Wednesday. The central bank should also reveal new forecasts for interest rates, inflation and the economy.
There are a few economic reports of note in the week ahead, including the producer price index Tuesday, retail sales Wednesday and existing home sales Friday.
“Earnings are over. Monetary policy is obviously going to be important here. I don’t see the Fed surprising anyone next week,” said Steve Massocca, managing director at Wedbush Securities. “It’s going to be a quarter point and then step into the background and watch what’s happening in Europe.”
Stocks fell for the past week, with the Nasdaq Composite the worst performer with a 3.5% decline. Meanwhile, the small-cap Russell 2000, which outperformed the three major indexes, lost 1% for the week.
A surge in oil prices spooked investors, with crude spiking to $130 at the beginning of the week but trading back below $110 on Friday.
The S&P 500 was down about 2.9% for the week. Energy stocks were the top performers, up nearly 1.9% and the only positive major sector.

Fed ahead

The impact of Russian sanctions on commodities markets and the lack of clarity around the outcome of the war in Ukraine are likely to keep volatility high across the financial markets.
The central bank’s statement and comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Wednesday will be closely watched for guidance on how Fed officials view the Ukraine crisis, and how much it could affect their outlook and the path for interest rates.
“His guidance is probably not going to be all that different from what he had to say in the [Congressional] testimony. Basically, downside risks to the growth outlook have increased. Upside risks to inflation have risen,” said Mark Cabana, head of U.S. short rates strategy at Bank of America.
Because Russia is a giant commodities producer, its assault on Ukraine and resulting sanctions have set off a rally in commodities markets that has made already-scorching inflation even hotter. February’s consumer price index was up 7.9%, and economists said rising gasoline prices could send it above 9% in March.
Gasoline at the pump jumped nearly 50 cents in the past week to $4.33 per gallon of unleaded, according to AAA.
Market pros see surging inflation as a catalyst that will keep the Fed on track to raise interest rates. However, uncertainty about the economic outlook could also mean the central bank might not hike as much as the seven rate increases that some economists forecast for this year.
Cabana expects Fed officials to forecast five hikes for 2022 and another four next year. The Fed previously anticipated three increases in both years. Cabana said the Fed could cut its forecast for 2024 to just one hike, from the two in their last outlook.
Any comments from the Fed on what it plans for its nearly $9 trillion balance sheet will also be important, since officials have said they would like to begin to scale it back this year after they start hiking interest rates. The Fed replaces maturing Treasury bonds and mortgages as they roll off, and it could slow that in a process Wall Street has dubbed “quantitative tightening” or QT.
“That they will be ready to flip the switch on QT in May is our base case, but we acknowledge there are risks that this will be skewed later,” said Cabana. He said if the Fed finds it is not in a position to raise interest rates as much as it hoped, it could delay shrinking the balance sheet right away, which would leave policy looser.

Bond market liquidity

The 10-year Treasury yield topped 2% at its highest level Friday, after dipping below 1.7% earlier this month as investors sought safety in bonds. Bond yields move opposite price.
“It’s inflation and inflation expectations. Treasurys behave in this environment a little differently than a flight to quality asset,” Cabana said “That’s a different dynamic than we’ve observed. You may see a flight to quality into Treasurys, but the Treasurys are reflecting higher inflation expectations.”
Cabana said the markets are showing signs of concern around the uncertainty in Ukraine. For instance, the Treasury market is less liquid.
“We have seen that the Treasury market has become more volatile. We’re seeing bid-ask spreads have widened. Some of the more traditionally less liquid parts of the market may have become less liquid, like TIPS and the 20-year. We’re also seeing market depth thinning out,” he said. “This is all due to elevated uncertainty and lack of risk-taking willingness by market participants, and I think that should worry the Fed.”
But Cabana said markets are not showing major stress.
“We’re not seeing signs the wheels are falling off in funding or that counterparty credit risks are super elevated. But the signs there are very much that all is not well,” he said.
“The other thing we continue to watch loosely are funding markets, and those funding markets are showing a real premium for dollars. Folks are paying up a lot to get dollars in a way they haven’t since Covid,” he said.
Cabana said the market is looking for reassurance from the Fed that it is watching the conflict in Ukraine.
“I think it would upset the market if the Fed reflected a very high degree of confidence in one direction or another,” he said. “That seems very unlikely.”

Dollar strength

The dollar index was up 0.6% on the week and it has been rising during Russia’s attack on Ukraine. The index is the value of the dollar against a basket of currencies and is heavily weighted toward the euro.
Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex, also points out that the dollar funding market is seeing some pressure but it is not strained.
“The dollar is at five-year highs today against the yen. That’s not what you would expect in a risk-off environment,” he said. “That’s a testament to the dollar’s strength.”
Chandler said it’s possible the dollar weakens in the coming week if it follows its usual interest rate hike playbook.
“I think there might be a buy the rumor, sell the fact on the Fed,” he said. “That’s typical for the dollar to go up ahead of the rate hike and sell off afterwards.”

Oil on the boil

Oil gyrated wildly this past week, touching a high not seen since 2008, as the market worried there would not be enough oil supply due to sanctions on Russia. Buyers have shunned Moscow’s oil for fear of running afoul of financial sanctions, and the U.S. said it would ban purchases of Russian oil.
West Texas Intermediate crude futures jumped to $130.50 per barrel at the beginning of the week but settling Friday at $109.33.
“I think the market getting bid up to $130 was a little premature,” said Helima Croft, head of global commodities strategy at RBC, noting the U.S. ban on Russian oil. She said the run-up in prices Monday came as market players speculated there would be a broader embargo on Russian oil, including Europe, its main customer.
“Right now, the market is too extreme in either way. I think it’s justified at $110. I think it’s justified over $100. I don’t think we’re headed for an off-ramp, and I think we have room to go higher,” she said.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

S&P Sectors for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #3!)

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #4!)

Gas Prices Hit A New Record

Crude oil may have reversed lower this week, but it's hard to tell when drivers head to the pumps. The national average for a gallon of regular gasoline has continued to rise to hit a record high of $4.33 in data from AAA going back to 2004. While prices typically rise this time of year, the vertical move this year has meant prices have grown at a much more rapid rate than normal.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Doomsday Fear Index

During the Cold War, American children and adults were educated on how to best protect themselves from a nuclear explosion. This included measures from the silly "duck and cover" campaign to nuclear fallout shelter instructions. If you happen to be curious about the federal government's current recommendations in regards to protection from a nuclear blast, you can read up on the instructions here. We're not sure how focused people will be about wearing a mask in the event of nuclear fallout, but we guess you can never be too careful!
With tensions between Western nations and Russia reaching levels not seen since the Cold War, we took a look at Google Trends to identify the level of fear in the American population with respect to the current war in Ukraine. We looked at the search volumes for terms like nuclear war, WWIII, canned food, Potassium Iodide, and gas mask. Searches for many of these terms hit five-year highs in the early days of the Russian invasion but have subsided since. The current level is still well above normalcy, but fears appear to have eased over the last week as the West's retaliation has been almost entirely economic (or maybe there is no internet service in the fallout shelters). The aggregate index is pictured below.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Below are charts of each search term we utilized in the composition of our index. Potassium Iodide, the compound utilized to mitigate the effects of excessive radiation exposure, is the only term that remains at a five-year high in terms of search volume. While searches for some of these terms were actually much higher during the early days of COVID, they all experienced upticks in the last few weeks. All-in-all, based on search trends based on fears of a nuclear situation or war with Russia spiked when the Ukraine invasion first started, but those fears have over the course of the last week.

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Investor Sentiment Remains Volatile

Considering equities and other risk asset prices continue to swing violently, so too have readings on investor sentiment. The weekly AAII survey of individual investors saw the percentage of respondents reporting as bullish fall back below 25% this week after rising above 30% last week. While that is not the largest drop in recent months (the second week of January saw bullish sentiment fall 7.9 percentage points compared to 6.4 today), it nonetheless reaffirmed that investor confidence is shaky, if not undecided, at the moment.

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The drop in bullish sentiment was mostly picked up by those reporting as bearish. Bearish sentiment rose 4.4 percentage points to 45.8%. While that reading is roughly 15 percentage points above the historical average for bearish sentiment, the reading is still lower than an even more pessimistic reading only two weeks ago when more than half of respondents reported as bearish.

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With the inverse moves in bullish and bearish sentiment, the bull-bear spread has pulled back to -21.8. As with bullish and bearish sentiment, even if that does not set a new low, it is only in the 5th percentile of readings going back to the start of the survey.

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After the largest single-week decline in nearly 20 years two weeks ago, neutral sentiment has been clawing its way back into the range it was in for most of the past year. Gaining another 2 percentage points this week, the reading is now back above 30%.

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Across each category of the report, there have been sizable swings in the past two months. To highlight this, in the chart below we show the eight-week rolling average of the absolute week over week change for each sentiment reading (bullish, bearish, and neutral) over the past 20 years. Over the history of the survey, weekly changes have gravitated towards smaller swings meaning the past decade is structurally a bit different relative to the decade before that. That being said, the weekly swings in the AAII readings on sentiment have been some of the largest of any period of the post-Global Financial Criss era. In fact, not even the COVID crash saw such volatility in sentiment (given optimism collapsed and then remained muted for some time rather than swing back and forth) while the only times this average was as high as now in the past decade were the spring of 2013, February 2016, and January 2019.

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More Volatility Likely in March, Recent Lows Remain Key

Thus far the market has been unable to find any real traction in the historically bullish month of March. As of today’s close DJIA is down 3.72% in March. S&P 500 is off 4.65%, NASDAQ is fallen 6.95% while the Russell 2000 is lower by 4.15%. Today’s gain by the small-cap Russell 2000 is somewhat encouraging and adds to the accumulating evidence that the market may finally be coming to terms with Ukraine, inflation, and the Fed. As we have noted in recent posts, investor sentiment has reached bearish levels last seen at the start of the covid-19 pandemic, S&P 500 has held its intra-day low reached on February 24 and VIX, although elevated, has not exploded to full-blown panic levels.
In addition, we can add March’s typical performance over the last 21-years to this list. As you can see in the chart above, the market has tended to selloff early in March and find a bottom around the sixth trading day of the month. Today was the sixth trading day. Afterwards the trend remains choppy, but it is generally higher until the end of the month.

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Be Greedy When Others Are Fearful

On this 13th Anniversary Global Financial Crisis Low, we may want to heed the wise words of one of the greatest investors of all time. “You try to be greedy when others are fearful, and fearful when others are greedy.” – Warren Buffett
So we ask: are we hitting another March market low on the 13th anniversary of the Global Financial Crisis low? It’s too early to be sure, but today’s rally and the recent dire projections and fearful sentiment are encouraging. CNN’s Fear & Greed Index shown above has clearly reached the extreme fear levels associated with market lows and turns.
Last week we posted how it was beginning to look like Investors Intelligence Bullish and Bearish Advisors % were indicating that contrary bearish sentiment was near bottoming levels. This may not be the final low, but the bottoming process is clearly underway. Sit tight and stick to your system.

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Country ETFs Falling Below Pre-COVID Highs

Headed up to the two-year anniversary of the COVID crash low (3/23/20), equities around the globe have been experiencing some of the worst pullbacks since that period. In the table below, we show the country ETFs of the countries tracked in our Global Macro Dashboard as well as their year and month to date performance, performance since each respective 52-week high as of 2/19/20 (the S&P 500 and a handful of other global indices last high before entering bear markets during the COVID crash) and current 52-week high. We also show where they are currently trading with respect to their 50-DMAs.
Given the degree of declines recently, nearly everything is oversold with six countries' readings now 'off the chart' as they trade well over three standard deviations below their 50-DMAs. The average country ETF is also down double digits on both a YTD basis and relative to their respective 52-week highs. Of the countries shown below, only Brazil (EWZ) and South Africa (EZA) are higher YTD with gains of 17.56% and 9.27%, respectively. Russia (RSX), meanwhile, is obviously down the most having been cut by over 75%.
The average country ETF is now down over 20% from its 52-week high, and only four of those 52-week highs have come since the start of 2022 whereas most were set last spring. As for how the current drawdowns have eaten into the post-COVID rallies, below we also show the percent change of these ETFs relative to their 52-week highs as of 2/19/20. In other words, where each ETF is trading with respect to their pre-COVID highs. Currently, there are only 8 country ETFs that remain above their respective pre-COVID highs. Seven others, meanwhile, have now declined more than 20% below their pre-COVID highs. Of course, Russia is once again down the most dramatically from those levels falling more than 75%.

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Below we show the charts of those eight countries that are currently still in the green relative to pre-COVID highs. The recent rough patch is not exactly identical for all countries though. Whereas the downtrends for some like Taiwan (EWT) or the US (SPY) are bringing these ETFs to multimonth lows, others like Canada (EWC) and Norway (ENOR) have more or less trended sideways. Since retaking pre-COVID highs, only Australia (EWA) has gone on to recently retest/fall back below those levels which it did in late January. While it would mean much further downside for the likes of EWT, SPY, and EWC, those prior highs could mark one area of tangible support for these other countries.

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The Little Guy Eying Inflation

Looking across the range of issues surveyed by the NFIB, labor and inflation remain front and center of what most concerns small businesses. As shown below, the combined percentage of respondents reporting either cost or quality of labor as their most important problem continues to be the most prevalent topic with 33% of firms reporting as such. That is down slightly from 34% in January thanks to the decline in quality of labor. Most other categories fell to or remained at record lows. Such was the case for Poor Sales, Competition from Big Business, Government Requirements and Red Tape, and Financial & Interest Rates.

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Last month the percentage of respondents reporting inflation as their biggest problem went unchanged from the December reading of 22%. This month that reading gained another 4 percentage points to cross above a quarter of all respondents for the first time on record going back to 1986. Behind labor concerns (the combined reading of cost and quality of labor), this is the most commonly reported problem, and based on the action in commodities prices over the last couple of weeks, this reading will almost certainly increase again next month.

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That means what has usually been the second most important problem on a combined basis recently, government requirement and taxes, dropped in the ranking. In fact, the 3 percentage point decline in government requirements offset the one percentage point increase in taxes to tie the November 2005 reading for the lowest on record. As we have noted in the past, the past few presidential cycles have structurally seen lower readings in these indices when Republicans were in office and vice versa when Democrats have held the presidency. With Biden currently in office, the record low reading is somewhat unusual from this political perspective.

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That is not the only category that has fallen to record lows. Poor sales and competition from big business have both fallen dramatically in the past couple of years.

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STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending March 11th, 2022

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STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 3.13.22

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Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-

• ($COUP $GTLB $DLO $MTN $CVGW $CTRN $KMDA $KNDI $DOLE $SFT $S $LOTZ $SMAR $ASPU $JBL $RMBL $DOYU $LEN $IDEX $WSM $PD $SMTC $ACN $DG $CMC $DBI $HUT $GME $FDX $STNE $HITI $AVPT)

(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)

(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)

(CLICK HERE FOR THE NOTABLE EARNINGS BEFORE THE OPEN ON MONDAY!)

Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

Monday 3.14.22 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Monday 3.14.22 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK# 1!)

Tuesday 3.15.22 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 3.15.22 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 3.16.22 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 3.16.22 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 3.17.22 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 3.17.22 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 3.18.22 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK!)

Friday 3.18.22 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())

(NONE.)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?

FedEx Corp. $213.18

FedEx Corp. (FDX) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Thursday, March 17, 2022. The consensus earnings estimate is $4.70 per share on revenue of $23.42 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $4.79 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 80% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 35.45% with revenue increasing by 8.88%. Short interest has increased by 15.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 16.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 16.5% below its 200 day moving average of $255.32. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, March 10, 2022 there was some notable buying of 2,352 contracts of the $240.00 call expiring on Friday, July 15, 2022. Option traders are pricing in a 8.9% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.9% move in recent quarters.

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GameStop Corp. $92.69

GameStop Corp. (GME) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Thursday, March 17, 2022. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.76 per share on revenue of $2.22 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.52 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 41% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 43.28% with revenue increasing by 4.61%. Short interest has increased by 72.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 44.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 46.1% below its 200 day moving average of $171.92. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, March 7, 2022 there was some notable buying of 1,860 contracts of the $115.00 put expiring on Friday, May 20, 2022. Option traders are pricing in a 16.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 17.7% move in recent quarters.

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Hut 8 Mining Corp. $4.99

Hut 8 Mining Corp. (HUT) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:30 AM ET on Thursday, March 17, 2022. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.16 per share on revenue of $43.16 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.16 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 85% expecting an earnings beat. Short interest has increased by 43.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 66.4% from its open following the earnings release. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, February 23, 2022 there was some notable buying of 2,243 contracts of the $4.50 put expiring on Friday, March 18, 2022. Option traders are pricing in a 14.1% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.8% move in recent quarters.

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Dollar General Corporation $205.55

Dollar General Corporation (DG) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:55 AM ET on Thursday, March 17, 2022. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.56 per share on revenue of $8.69 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.55 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 52% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 2.29% with revenue increasing by 3.27%. Short interest has increased by 23.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 5.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 5.4% below its 200 day moving average of $217.26. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, February 10, 2022 there was some notable buying of 1,521 contracts of the $230.00 call expiring on Friday, June 17, 2022. Option traders are pricing in a 6.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.8% move in recent quarters.

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Ideanomics $0.88

Ideanomics (IDEX) is confirmed to report earnings after the market closes on Wednesday, March 16, 2022. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.02 per share on revenue of $31.00 million. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 57% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 88.89% with revenue increasing by 180.06%. Short interest has increased by 35.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 45.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 60.4% below its 200 day moving average of $2.23. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, February 22, 2022 there was some notable buying of 3,665 contracts of the $1.00 call expiring on Friday, March 18, 2022. Option traders are pricing in a 34.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 8.0% move in recent quarters.

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StoneCo Ltd. $8.93

StoneCo Ltd. (STNE) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Thursday, March 17, 2022. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.01 per share on revenue of $297.71 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.07) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 74% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 94.74% with revenue increasing by 60.37%. Short interest has increased by 42.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 65.9% from its open following the earnings release to be 75.0% below its 200 day moving average of $35.67. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, March 4, 2022 there was some notable buying of 1,572 contracts of the $9.00 put expiring on Friday, March 18, 2022. Option traders are pricing in a 19.9% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 10.7% move in recent quarters.

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Ballard Power Systems Inc. $10.98

Ballard Power Systems Inc. (BLDP) is confirmed to report earnings before the market opens on Monday, March 14, 2022. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.08 per share on revenue of $28.84 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.10) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 53% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 60.00% with revenue increasing by 0.88%. Short interest has increased by 18.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 41.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 24.3% below its 200 day moving average of $14.50. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, February 28, 2022 there was some notable buying of 2,464 contracts of the $11.00 put and 1,264 contracts of the $10.00 call expiring on Friday, March 18, 2022. Option traders are pricing in a 17.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 10.4% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

GOL Linhas Aereas Inteligentes SA $5.20

GOL Linhas Aereas Inteligentes SA (GOL) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:15 AM ET on Monday, March 14, 2022. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.41 per share on revenue of $469.51 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.38) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 54% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 54.44% with revenue increasing by 33.91%. Short interest has increased by 62.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 21.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 28.2% below its 200 day moving average of $7.24. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 28.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.7% move in recent quarters.

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Whole Earth Brands, Inc. $8.71

Whole Earth Brands, Inc. (FREE) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:30 AM ET on Monday, March 14, 2022. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.20 per share on revenue of $138.56 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.18 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 66% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 253.85% with revenue increasing by 83.07%. Short interest has decreased by 19.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 24.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 30.1% below its 200 day moving average of $12.46. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 8.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.5% move in recent quarters.

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Accenture Ltd. $311.58

Accenture Ltd. (ACN) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:45 AM ET on Thursday, March 17, 2022. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.36 per share on revenue of $13.22 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.39 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 68% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 16.26% with revenue increasing by 9.36%. Short interest has increased by 14.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 24.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 7.1% below its 200 day moving average of $335.49. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, February 28, 2022 there was some notable buying of 2,399 contracts of the $365.00 call expiring on Friday, March 18, 2022. Option traders are pricing in a 7.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.4% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead StockMarket. :)

EDIT: Due to popular demand I’ve included a TL;DR it’s at the bottom.
I already know this is going to be an extremely unpopular opinion within this community so I ask that you please take the time to read this entire post before making judgment or commenting. Even if you know the answers to some of these please read the entire post. The information builds upon each other to explain some of the more advanced topics near the end.
A bit of context about myself before I go further. This post is going to explain to this community why Dogecoin is successful, and why it will continue to be successful moving forward. HINT: (the answer is not Elon musk or pump and dumpers). I’ve followed cryptocurrency since 2013. I’ve followed Dogecoin since 2016. A lot of the misconceptions I see in this community - I had the same opinions and thoughts as well. I actually sold my Dogecoin in 2018 thinking it was going nowhere and that it was a just a meme coin. I know where you guys are coming from when you make these claims. However, most of them are either misconceptions or flat wrong. I’ll explain why below.
I support cryptocurrency in general, and whether this community wants to admit it - Dogecoin IS a cryptocurrency, and it is highly successful one at that. For the purposes of this post I will comparing Dogecoin to bitcoin (yes, I know there’s plenty of other cryptocurrency out there. I did this for simplicity and comparison the concepts still apply. I also did not address PoW vs PoS because I feel like that conversation is broad and being had in other threads here).
The problem with Dogecoin is not the cryptocurrency itself - it’s that the majority of people are horribly misinformed. They find out about Dogecoin and take their biases and apply them Dogecoin before researching. This includes this community. cryptocurrency is a specific subset of society who has an extremely knowledgeable background in the technological aspects of cryptocurrency. You may personally have a solid understanding of the technology aspect of cryptocurrency but the reason why Dogecoin will be successful is based on economics, mathematics, social theory and statistics as WELL as the underlying technology. Each of these topics is extremely intricate and each field requires years to fully master. No one person has all of the knowledge of all aspects of a cryptocurrency so when someone is attacking Dogecoin on why it won’t be successful is probably misinformed. Dogecoin is already successful. It’s been proven already. The question is HOW successful. Which nobody really knows the answer to.
Now that I got that intro out of the way - I am going to explain each misconception regarding Dogecoin (which a lot of these also apply to cryptocurrency in general - again this is a pro-cryptocurrency post, not strictly a pro-Dogecoin only post). This is a re-write of another article I wrote tailored specifically for the Dogecoin community - since I know my audience; I removed some of the simpler topics.

1. Question: What Is Dogecoin? And why Dogecoin?

Answer: Similar to other cryptocurrencies, Dogecoin, finds itself with the support of hundreds if not thousands of individuals pushing for this currency to succeed. But why is that? Unless you have been absent from every social bubble, you may have heard of Bitcoin. For the purpose of this explanation, you will find that Bitcoin is not exactly an easy thing to equate to Dogecoin, but lets think about the criteria of a Cryptocurrency. For those of you who have been around for a while - you know very well that Bitcoin did not find its foothold overnight. In fact, it took several years. A lot of people fought tooth and nail for their belief in the coin. Crypto, in a nutshell, is a decentralized form of currency that finds its value in a combination of individual asset involvement, ease or difficulty in security of an exchange, creating a method of reliable, secure, trustworthy exchange, and other reasons.
Initially as a purely meme-driven alternative to the likes of Bitcoin and Litecoin, Dogecoin in-fact boasts very low transaction fees and fast transaction times, very little network congestion, and most importantly, is designed to be used as a daily means of exchange, like your morning cup of coffee. Also, it is really fun, and who doesn't like the Dog ?!
Think of it like this: to exchange goods and services without currency, one must barter. I can barter a service (a haircut, for example) towards someone who needs a haircut, and in exchange they can barter a good or service to me. Currency then becomes an "IOU" (I Owe yoU) so that, if somebody needs me to cut their hair, they can give me an IOU for a good or service they control. When enough people begin adopting this, a centralized currency eventually takes hold. Crypto seeks to take this a step further and, instead of relying on building up a centalization in terms of valuable metals or debt, it is built up solely on the exchange of goods and services. Dogecoin, compared to other cryptocurrencies, finds itself in a strange position where the origins did NOT see it soaring to the moon in any situation. Funny how things can change in time. Dogecoin has pros and cons to it. Comparing it to other cryptos, it does not face a supply cap like Bitcoin does. It is not a directly equated asset, such as how Bitcoin can be attributed as a digital gold asset. Mining dogecoin is also much simpler (comparitively) and does not face difficulty spikes, a source of Bitcoin slow-down.

1. Question: Is Dogecoin just a meme or should it be taken seriously?

Answer: We have all witnessed the power of a meme, the depths it can reach in society, especially in recent years. We have seen it many times before with video games, consoles, Oreos, or as of late even toilet paper... A meme has inherent value in the form of “widespread information”. A meme can spread an idea across diverse communities, and even entire countries literally overnight. This can bring about lasting effects on culture and society. If correctly taken advantage of, Doge can become the dominant meme currency of the internet, and amass real-world value just by being a popular, recognisable meme itself. This is where the saying “Dogecoin is the people’s coin” comes from. This is marketing 101. If your idea, or product is too complicated or not enough people know about then it doesn’t matter how technologically sound it is. Dogecoin have the best technology? No. Can it be improved upon. Definitely. In fact, the original developers have started working on the project again. An analogy I like to use is this. McDonald’s makes hamburgers. They have a clown as a mascot. A literal personification of a joke. Does make McDonald’s make the best hamburgers? No. Does McDonald’s have “value” in their industry? Undeniably so. So what does McDonald’s do correctly? They provide a cheap, easily accessible, and brand able product to the masses. Which is what dogecoin does for cryptocurrency.

1. Question: Does Dogecoin have value or it just a s—-coin. How does Dogecoin and other cryptocurrency increase in price or decrease in price?

Answer: Yes. Dogecoin has value. If didn’t have value then it wouldn’t be bought or sold at all. Anything can have value as long as enough people assign it value and agree to it. The value of any means of exchange is fundamentally driven by supply and demand. If two parties agree that X amount of asset A is roughly worth the same as Y amount of asset B, you effectively have established a market. That’s why the US dollar and other fiat currency has value even though it just a piece of paper. The difference between fiat currency and cryptocurrency is that fiat currency is determined by centralized government and other underlying economical/market conditions. Cryptocurrency is meant to be a decentralized form of fiat currency. Now as to why the price changes from say .05 to .06 (random numbers using this as an example for explanation purposes. It is not exact) this value is driven primarily by supply and demand. We already know the supply of Dogecoin(will be covered later) so for the purpose of this the main driving factor in the change in price is demand. But the demand for Dogecoin isn’t just one person. It’s the entire group of people who own Dogecoin. So if at any given time lets say 10 people with 1000 Dogecoin want to sell. But only 5 people want to buy 1000 Dogecoin. This means that the sellers “value” Dogecoin less at its current price than buyers do. 5000 Dogecoin less. This changes to price from .05 to .49. The same applies if more people wanted to buy. Then the price would go from .05 to .051. An algorithm repeats the process over and over constantly updating the price. However that’s only one way to change the value. The best way to increase the overall value of cryptocurrency in the long run is by giving it utility.Which basically means that it can be used for something other than just buying at .05 and selling it .06. That is why you see people pushing to accept Dogecoin as payment. It further legitimatizes Dogecoin as a cryptocurrency and currency in general when companies allow you to exchange it for goods and services. Another explain not related to Dogecoin is NFTs. The concept of supply and demand as well as utility applies to all cryptocurrency.

1. Question: Circulation of currencies. The importance of buying, selling, and holding - and the differences between them.

Answer: To briefly explain this, a lot of people have been saying “buy and hold” or “I’m never selling!” - which in itself is great start. But there remains a lot of misinformation around the topic, for example that simply "buying and holding " will drive up the price indefinitely. Unfortunately, that is just not true. Buying, holding, and selling are all intricately connected with each other. ALL of those three states are essential for a (digital) currency to flourish. Holding does neither hurt or raise the value of the asset, but rather it helps to establish a baseline, which is also called "setting a floor". Those who have diligently kept on holding their coins, have allowed Dogecoin to stabilize at its current price point. Remember, this remains a huge gain from where Dogecoin has been just months ago. An active circulation of a currency is critical to establishing it as an effective means of exchanging goods and setting it up for long term growth.

1. Question: Why is Dogecoin always hovering between a certain value (example between .05 and .06) explaining floors and ceilings. How large owners/whales impact market conditions.

Answer: The day to day trends of Dogecoin may appear strange at first sight, but those who continue holding onto their Doge are affecting or rather creating the floor. The floor is essentially the lowest value Dogecoin will drop to at current market conditions. A common floor that’s been set for about a month is .05. Why is this value the floor at current market conditions? Because when the majority (around 1 million new people came into Dogecoin in February) bought Dogecoin at .05. This means that there is a large amount of people own Dogecoin and purchased it at this amount. To protect their investment and keep from losing money they are holding their Dogecoin and refuse to sell it at a lower price. This keeps the price relatively stable - called a floor. However a person with a large supply of Dogecoin (what they call a whale) can impact this because they own so much, they can effectively sell off so much that the price goes below the floor. The price will tend to rise back up to floor because people are buying in at the lower price to dollar cost average (lower the average per they paid per Dogecoin) which is known as “buying the dip”. Now to address ceilings. A ceiling is a price - that once Dogecoin hits that value - a majority of people begin to sell. The most common ceiling is .06. Now, why is the the ceiling and not something like .1? Well because there’s a subsection of this community who day trade - which is basically trying to play the day to day prices by buying in low and selling high and taking the profits. The most common values to use are whole cents. I.E. .05, .06, .07. If someone bought at .05 and sold at .06 they made a 12.5% profit on their investment. As Dogecoin steadily gains momentum through increased demand and utility Dogecoin will start to bypass the ceilings and replacing the ceiling with a new floor.

1. Question: Mining Dogecoin. How new Dogecoin are created and enter the market/supply. It there an infinite supply of Dogecoin being produced? Comparison to Bitcoin and the US dollar.

Answer: mining is the process of creating new cryptocurrency by solving a computational puzzle. mining is necessary to maintain the ledger of transactions upon which cryptocurrency is based. Miners have become very sophisticated over the last several years using complex machinery to speed up mining operations. Approximately 600,000 dogecoins are produced per hour and 5,256,000,000 (5.26 billion) per year and there are currently approximately 128,000,000,000 (128 billion) Dogecoin. Now let’s compare this information to what we know about Bitcoin. Bitcoin currently has a supply of 18.5 million. Currently 900 Bitcoin are mined per day or 328,500 per year. However, unlike Dogecoin, Bitcoins mining rate is not fixed. Bitcoin has something known as a Bitcoin halving which means at some point in the future instead of 900 per day being mined 450 are mined. Now let’s compare Dogecoin and Bitcoin to the US Dollar. The US Dollar has an estimated paper money supply (more on this covered in a later section) of approximately (1.2 to 2 trillion) and in 2019 the federal reserve printed 188.3 billion paper dollars. This means that there is 10 times more supply of dollars to Dogecoin and the government prints 37 times more dollars than Dogecoin is mined per year. It is also important to note that this increase in supply of Dogecoin is fixed. It never changes. The federal reserve can change how much they print any given year. Many people think that this means that the supply of Dogecoin is infinite or infinitely increasing. That is not true in the span of our life time. It will take approximately 24 years for the supply of Dogecoin to double and it will take 360 years for the supply of Dogecoin to reach the current supply of the US Dollar. That’s without taking into account the fact that federal reserve adds more dollars each year than Dogecoin adds to its supply each year. Technically speaking the supply of Dogecoin will eventually reach infinity if given enough time but you have to remember that infinity isn’t an actual number. You can’t mine “infinite” dogecoin because infinity isn’t a number. It’s a mathematical concept to describe something that is boundless. Dogecoin doesn’t have a boundless increase. It has a fixed increase a set amount added at a specific interval. So in practical terms for the purpose of using Dogecoin as a legitimate cryptocurrency, this infinite argument against Dogecoin doesn’t matter. In fact it’s actually way better than Bitcoin at exchanging goods and services because of this fact. That is why the price per Bitcoin is in the in the 50,000 dollar range per coin and the price per Dogecoin is in the .05 range. with a realistic possibility of only reaching $288.60 at current market conditions (this will be covered later). That is why it costs .00012 Bitcoin for milk but only 50 Dogecoin for that same commonly traded commodity. That’s why Bitcoin will be treated like digital gold. That is why Dogecoin can be used like a dollar - cheap, spendable and easily replaced. The price per coin are inherently different because their supplies are different.

1. Question: Should Dogecoin have a cap on its supply. What does having a cap mean, why do some cryptocurrency have a cap and other don’t? How does it affect the price? Will adding a cap increase the price per Dogecoin. Comparing bitcoin (capped) Dogecoin (no hard cap)

Answer: - When people say they want a supply cap - what they are saying is that they want to place a limit on the total possible supply of Dogecoin. They point to bitcoin as having a cap, and since bitcoin has a cap, that must be why it is valued so high. Through scarcity. That is partially true, but it’s not because of the cap. The scarcity doesn’t come from having a cap, it comes from having a low supply and mining amount which reduces over time. Known as a bitcoin halving.
Bitcoin and Dogecoin are two completely different cryptocurrency. Their supplies are different. Their utility is different. Having a cap does nothing in terms of the actual value of Dogecoin or bitcoin at the current moment. The cap only matters once that limit has been reached. The cap for bitcoin doesn’t happen until 2140. The price of bitcoin is due to the limited supply (18 million) relative to the global population, the bitcoin mining rate and bitcoin halving. All things that Dogecoin does differently. That doesn’t mean Dogecoin doesn’t have value. It doesn’t mean Dogecoin is infinite. It just means that they’re different. Dogecoin has a current supply of 128 billion, which is why the price is lower and harder to change in value. It is easier for bitcoin to rise $1 in price because the supply of bitcoin is so low and the supply of Dogecoin is so high. It doesn’t mean that Dogecoin can’t rise in price - just that it’s harder.
Adding a cap won’t automatically increase the price because the cap isn’t the problem. You can’t reduce the 128 billion supply (unless you burn them or lose them). They already exist. People get confused because they don’t understand inflation and continual growth and why they are necessary for Dogecoin to a successful cryptocurrency based on the core parameters made when Dogecoin was created. They also don’t understand infinity. Dogecoin is not infinite. It can never reach infinity because infinity isn’t a number. As long as Dogecoin exists and is being mined it is not infinite.
To further this point the original developers of Dogecoin have already stated that they will NOT be adding a cap. Adding a cap fundamentally changes Dogecoin at its core level and they’re just not going to do it. Here is the direct answer from the Dogecoin developers: “A, block reward is needed to secure Dogecoin network in a decentralized manner. Dogecoin is merge-mined with Litecoin, and that makes it somewhat secure against PoW attacks. But if Dogecoin reward will be too low, some Litecoin miners may drop Dogecoin, and our security will suffer. From this point of view, bigger reward is better. If you propose reducing the reward over time, you must also propose a solid way to keep Dogecoin secure. Now about the economic aspect. Current Dogecoin issue rate, taken relative to current total amount, is low, it's almost nothing compared to all the other factors that affect Dogecoin value. If you look at Dogecoin price chart since the introduction of current issue schedule, you will not see effects of "inflation" for all the wild price changes caused by other factors. And this already low issue rate gets even smaller over time, compared to total amount of dogecoins. The only real reason for these "cap" proposals is trying to "sell" Dogecoin to investors under the premise of possibly increased scarcity in the future. In my opinion, we don't need to try to appeal to investors. Dogecoin value will be increasing because of strong community and increased usage. And the fact that Dogecoin value increases is already enough for investors to jump in and increase it even more.” You can read the full response to this directly from the developers here on their GitHub
Even if they DID add a cap it would actually be LESS beneficial for Dogecoin as a currency.
Here’s some Basic economics explaining why. Inflation and deflation are common economic terms used to explain the change in the inherent value of a currency. This means that that 1 US Dollar today does not have the same value or “worth” as it did, for example, in 1950. Inflation is a situation of rising prices in the economy. A more exact definition of inflation is a sustained increase in the general price level in an economy. Deflation on the other hand occurs when the inflation rate falls below 0%, that is a negative inflation rate. While inflation reduces the value of a currency over time, a sudden deflation of a currency increases its relative value. This would allow more goods and services to be bought than before with the same amount of currency. Deflation can be a factor in leading to a recession and also result in a deflationary spiral.
Common follow up question: What does all this mean with regards to cryptocurrency, specifically Bitcoin versus Dogecoin?
Well - Bitcoin is stagnant or deflationary over time, while Dogecoin is inflationary overtime. This is due to the way they are architected and mined, and how new coins are added into their respective markets What gets misunderstood is which one is “better” or rather "the lesser evil". Dogecoin doesn't need a supply limit like Bitcoin, because in the long run it will be much easier to exchange Dogecoin for goods and services, than with other crypto currencies or regular currencies for that matter. Bitcoin will continue to skyrocket in price because less and less are being mined. Bitcoin is like gold. Dogecoin is like the dollar. Bitcoin and Dogecoin have their pros and cons. Our current money is backed by signatures on debt contracts, not on real values. But it works, because we believe in it, even if it will be our downfall if it continues like this. People get confused because they think inflation is a bad thing, when in fact it is actually beneficial in small quantities and beneficial to the longevity of a currency.
Currencies have inflation - commodities don’t. Dogecoin is better suited to be a currency than Bitcoin is. Bitcoin is better suited to be a digital version of gold. That doesn’t mean one is better than the other - just that they are different.

1. Question: Is a Dogecoin increase to the equivalent of one US dollar possible? Could and will it potentially happen? What would change if it does happen? How high could Dogecoin realistically rise in price? comparison to US currency and global FIAT currency. - Explaining Market Cap, what it is, what it means, and how it’s used.

Answer: Despite not having a fixed or capped supply, yes, the value of dogecoin can rise based on its relative value against other currencies in the market in the future. You can find examples of this in the FOREX market where currency pairs are traded, like Euro against US dollar, or US Dollar against Japanese Yen. As the value of Dogecoin rises, more and more businesses will recognise its potential and importance, and subsequently begin to accept it in exchange for goods and services. This will also help to grow the developer community around Dogecoin.
Mathematically speaking market cap = price multiplied by supply MC (Market Cap) = P (Current Price) x S (Current Supply)
Market cap just means how much the total supply is “valued/worth” at a certain price. The exact definition applies to stocks; not cryptocurrency how ever for our purposes the mathematics still apply.
I see people saying how insert x cryptocurrency has a current market cap of $y billion dollars then they find out what the market cap needs to be and say if this many people put this much money into the system then the price will rise to that value. The most common example is that for Dogecoin to be $1 it would have $128 billion market cap. People then say if 100 million people put $1000 in doge then doge will = $1.
Super simple right? The only problem is: THAT’S NOT HOW MARKET CAP WORKS.
Simply adding money to the system does absolutely nothing to affect market cap. The only two variables that change the market cap are price. And supply nothing else can change the market cap.
Market caps REAL use is a comparison tool. It’s used to compare how successful a market is compared to other markets. I will provide an example below.
The current market cap of Dogecoin while writing this article is $6,077,915,837 ($6 billion). If Dogecoin were to reach $1 today it would have a market cap of about 128 billion dollars ($1 x 128,495,957,919 circulating supply). Bitcoin (the most successful cryptocurrency) currently has a market cap of approximately $898,761,019,333 (~ $900 billion). This means that at $1, the total supply of Dogecoin would be “worth” about 1/7th of Bitcoins total supply. The estimated supply of the US dollar is about $2,000,000,000 (2 trillion), thus the market cap of the US currency is $2 trillion. If Dogecoin were to reach the equivalent market cap ($2tn / $128bn), the price per Dogecoin would have to be $15.60, thus matching the entire short-term US currency (M0 money supply in economics).
This is definitely not impossible, but it is highly highly improbable to reach such value any time soon. If that were to ever happen, it would take years. Now, the entire supply of the entire worlds fiat (short-term liquidity / paper) currency is $37 trillion. You can apply the same logic from above and see that the value of Dogecoin would have to be $288.60. If it was valued any higher than that amount, Dogecoin would be "worth" more than the entire world’s short-term liquidity currencies combined. Keep in mind - It could technically mathematically speaking go past this point, but what that would mean is that the economy behind Dogecoin would be stronger than the entire global economy of today. It’s not impossible- but is is highly unrealistic to pass that point.
You can use this same comparison tool and apply it to any cryptocurrency of choice to find “realistic” values of the price per coin. It’s just important to remember that MARKET CAP DOES NOT MEAN TOTAL AMOUNT OF MONEY IN THE SYSTEM - A 6 billion dollar market cap does not mean there’s 6 billion dollars in the system. It means that the entire supply is “worth” 6 billion at the current price. When I originally wrote this people got confused so I wanted to clarify that.

1. Question: Pump and dump vs long term growth and the difference between them. Is Dogecoin just a pump and dump meme coin.

• so I want to side bar here really quick. Dogecoin is not simply a pump and dump. The graphs speak for themselves. Pump and dumps don’t last months. Being part of the cryptocurrency community I’m sure you all have experienced REAL pump and dumps and this argument can finally be put to rest. However, I still want to provide an answer to this misconception because I still still it lingering around.

Answer: "Pump and dump" is a form of securities fraud that involves artificially inflating the price of an owned stock through false and misleading positive statements, in order to sell the cheaply purchased stock at a higher price. Pump and dumps are illegal. While a subset of people were trying to pump and dump Dogecoin, the legitimate community is focused its long term growth and stability which is achieved through the rest of the topics addressed here
Sustainable Growth is how cryptocurrency flourish. The trends over the past few months show that the true Dogecoin supporters are focused on sustainable growth - not pump and dump or short term gain.

1. Question: Elon Musk - Is he important for Dogecoin? The impact of celebrities and big business supporting Dogecoin Celebrity/Influencer Involvement

Answer: Elon Musk, Mark Cuban As many may know, Elon is highly involved when it comes to “meme culture.” we can see Elon has tweeted several times concerning “doge,” reposting memes found from Reddit, as well as concerning himself with the ripples of the recent stock news. Mark Cuban, another notable wealthy, down-to-earth, community-involved individual, has recently mentioned “#dogecoin” specifically and actually began allowing his NBA basketball team to accept Dogecoin for payment. Regardless of whether these people have positive intentions towards $DOGE or not, their mention carries weight and public opinion and is a good assumption that new eyes are looking at us as a result. It should be noted that they have tweeted neutrally to positively towards $DOGE, not indicating a full-send support but they clearly are not talking down the possibilities.
Big business allowing Dogecoin to be supported as means of exchanging goods, and people like Elon musk supporting and backing this cryptocurrency are important to proving its value and legitimacy.
However, it is important to remember that this is not the sole determining factor in the price. The price is determined through supply and demand and utility. Elon musk and other major high profile individuals doesn’t control that, but they do help

1. Question: What is a 51% attack? Can it realistically happen? What are the implications if it were to happen?

Answer: A 51% attack refers to an attack on a blockchain most commonly bitcoin. Such an attack is possible but still just hypothetical. It requires group of miners to control more than 50% of the network's mining hash rate or computing power.
The attackers would be able to prevent new transactions from gaining confirmations, allowing them to halt payments between some or all users. They would also be able to reverse transactions that were completed while they were in control of the network, meaning they could double-spend coin.
They would almost certainly not be able to create new coins or alter old blocks. A 51% attack would probably not destroy bitcoin or another blockchain-based currency outright, even if it proved highly damaging.
You may have seen an article going around talking about the 51% attack and why it will cause Dogecoin to go to zero. Regarding the 51% Hashrate attacks, Yes, they are real, and have been ever since cryptocurrencies aka Bitcoin started. The article even mentions an example. Now, if a large group of people with a lot of resources very effectively coordinated, they could indeed make a 51% attack on Dogecoin happen. But not just on Dogecoin, but also on many other, small cryptocurrencies. This is nothing new, this has basically been known for the last 10+ years. But the author of the article needs clicks, so there goes the horror-scenario headline... Possible - yes, absolutely. Likely, not very. Unless you have a large sum of people with a few resources each coordinating perfectly - that is in my honest opinion very unlikely - you could have governments, very large hedge funds, or maybe Elon Musk build a vast array of mining farms and do said 51% Hashrate attack. But again, that effort would only be worthwhile if those groups had a definite interest in destroying Dogecoin. There are probably other cryptocurrencies that would be more interesting from that perspective, such as litecoin. Of course, despite the sensationalist headline, for them clicks, the author covers their own backside by stating the following: "In conclusion...Pretty much all the crypto besides Bitcoin and Ethereum are at material risk of a 51% attack, and it's not just a theoretical risk." This problem is not tied specifically to Dogecoin, but to every single cryptocurrency. Now let’s do some math to calculate exactly how much it would cost in order to succeed in pulling off a 51% attack on Dogecoin. Dogecoin has a hash rate of 299.17 TH/s or 299,170,000 MH/s. If you were to use an RTX3090 which costs $2,000 US Dollars, and has a hash rate of 121 MH/s. You would need 1,260,964 RTX3090 at a cost of $2,521,928,926 dollars ($2.5 billion). Is it possible? Yes. Is it likely? No.
12.. Question: There is a lack of developer support for Dogecoin. The technology is outdated. Why would anyone come work as a Dogecoin developer when there are thousands of other cryptocurrencies?
Answer: The short answer is there is already development being done due to recent weeks bringing Dogecoin back into relevancy. the original Dogecoin developers have already began working on the project with the new found support of the community and companies accepting Dogecoin as payment. Can the technology be improved? Yes. Is it being improved as we speak? Yes.

1. Question: if all of the above information is true why are so many people trying to discredit Dogecoin as legitimate cryptocurrency?

Answer: I already explained this through the answers above. Mainly because people are misinformed. No one person has all of the knowledge of all aspects of a cryptocurrency so when someone is attacking Dogecoin on why it won’t be successful is probably misinformed. Dogecoin is already successful. It’s been proven already. The question is HOW successful. Which nobody really knows the answer to. Others will try to discredit Dogecoin for the exact same reason they try to discredit cryptocurrency in general. it is novel and has gained popularity. Crypto Is a new(ish) technology and a lot of people don’t understand how it can be used. People also discredit it because it’s a “meme”. Which as established above has nothing to do with the usefulness of the cryptocurrency itself.

1. Question: Will cryptocurrency replace fiat currency? Will a cryptocurrency be the next world currency?

Answer: (this is the visionary in me) Cryptocurrency is in its infancy. People don’t realize the worldwide paradigm that is taking place right in front of our eyes. People are starting to see that traditional fiat (paper) currency back by centralized governments and debt are flawed and can be improved upon. Cryptocurrency is the future whether the people who can’t see it or try to disagree believe it or not. It’s inevitable. I knew it was inevitable in 2013 when I first heard about Bitcoin. A cryptocurrency will replace fiat currency in the future. Will it be Bitcoin? ETH? Dogecoin? Ada? Some other cryptocurrency that doesn’t exist yet? I don’t know. Cryptocurrency is taking the financial sector by storm - odds are there’s going to be a few key cryptocurrency for each aspect. - ones replacing fiat, ones replacing precious metals, ones replacing the banking system through deFi. Honestly getting into cryptocurrency now is like supporting the internet in the 80s - nobody knows where it’s going to be in 30 years.
If you read the entire thing, thank you. If not here’s the TL;DR -
No, Dogecoin is not the most amazing crypto in the world, but it does have a niche role and shouldn’t be hated on by this community the way it is.
• ⁠The meme aspect of Dogecoin has no Impact on its viability as a cryptocurrency. It’s actually a benefit that helps in marketing it to the masses.
• ⁠Don't treat it as an investment that will rise in price dramatically like Bitcoin. Just because the price per coin is low doesn’t make it a bad crypto.
• ⁠Stop hating Dogecoin if you haven’t done your research. There’s actually a lot of benefits if you took the time to learn.
• ⁠Each cryptocurrency has its pros and con and Dogecoin is useful at what it does. As a currency to Exchange goods and services as well as helping to educate new people about crypto.
We're all in this together. Be a crypto maximalist; don’t bash a coin just because it does things differently. Embrace novelty.
I hope I was able to change the minds of least some people of this community.