A modo de introducción podemos afirmar que muchas personas que tienen una participación activa en lo que respecta al trading de Forex utilizan indicadores todos los días como parte de su análisis técnico.
¿Para qué los usan？
Por lo general, hacen esto porque los mencionados indicadores nos van a ayudar a eliminar las conjeturas del comercio de Forex y también nos van a permitir tomar decisiones comerciales mucho más objetivas.
¿Pero para aquellos que se inician en Forex, puede ser un desafío usar indicadores complejos？
Luego de esta pregunta, este artículo, desarrollaremos y nos adentraremos en tres indicadores de uso simple y fácil de entender; donde los operadores podrán utilizar en sus operaciones diarias.
¿Qué son los indicadores de Forex？
Los indicadores de Forex componen una gran parte del análisis técnico, es utilizado por los comerciantes de todo el mundo, ya que ayuda en el proceso para la toma de decisiones lo más acertadas posible. Estos indicadores técnicos de Forex llevan cálculos matemáticos que los operadores de Forex utilizan en función del tipo de cambio, el volumen o el interés abierto de un par de divisas.
Los tres mejores indicadores técnicos de Forex para principiantes:
Manteniendo la idea de que lo simple es lo mejor, podemos decir que hay tres indicadores fáciles con los que un operador debe familiarizarse usando uno o bien dos a la vez para asemejar los puntos de entrada y salida de operaciones, estos son:
1. Promedios móviles
Uno de los indicadores técnicos más conocidos son las medias móviles. El promedio móvil vendría a ser el precio promedio del último número de velas, lo cual representa el sentimiento general del precio. Esto quiere decir que, si el precio se negocia por encima de la media móvil, es un indicador de que los compradores controlan el precio.
Un ejemplo podría ser, si la media móvil de 20 días es la media de los precios de cierre de los 20 días anteriores. Es uno de los mejores indicadores de Forex, en resumidas cuentas es uno de los mejores indicadores de especulación de Forex gratuitos.
Para ilustrar esto mejor, echamos un vistazo a este gráfico diario de velas del EUUSD:
https://preview.redd.it/wih3gy2z2ap91.png?width=481&format=png&auto=webp&s=c12725d82eb27b21c9130010c706a9a7a343cb8e
Como se puede apreciar en el gráfico anterior, la línea naranja ilustra el promedio móvil de 50 días y la línea blanca representa lo que sería el promedio móvil de 20 días, generalmente se considera un indicador técnico importante a corto plazo. Cuanto más largo sea el período de tiempo para la media móvil, mayor será el retraso. Por lo tanto, una media móvil de 50 días tendrá un grado de retraso mucho mayor que una media móvil de 20 días.
2. Índice de fuerza relativa (RSI)
El índice de fuerza relativa conocido como (RSI) es un oscilador que es simple, fácil y de útil uso en su aplicación, lo que colabora a los inversores a establecer cuándo una moneda está sobrecomprada o sobrevendida, por lo que es probable que se produzca una reversión.
Con el RSI se puede obtener una lectura de 0 a 100, una interpretación tradicional y el uso del RSI son los valores de 70 o más que nos brindan indicadores de que un valor se está sobrecomprado sobrevaluado y puede estar atento a una inversión de tendencia o un retroceso correctivo en el precio. Una lectura de RSI de 30 o menos nos da indicios de una condición de sobreventa o infravaloración.
https://preview.redd.it/wtdhp0f03ap91.png?width=484&format=png&auto=webp&s=6eccf574ae78812a670626a1774d667c2feec892
3. Divergencia de convergencia de la media móvil (MACD)
El mencionado en siglas MACD está creado para medir el impulso. No solo identifica una tendencia, sino que también va a intentar medir la fuerza de la tendencia. El indicador MACD está compuesto de la línea única, la línea MACD y la línea de histograma.
Como se avizora en el siguiente gráfico, cuando el MACD se hunde por debajo de la línea de señal, es un signo bajista que nos da la pauta que puede ser el momento de vender. Por el inverso, cuando el MACD sube por arriba de la línea de señal, el indicador nos brinda una señal alcista, lo que sugiere probablemente que el precio del activo experimente un impulso alcista.
https://preview.redd.it/td8vyyv13ap91.png?width=480&format=png&auto=webp&s=60ebe9f4e2b1991dc82c56bac90b3c3766ed56fa
Si el MACD pasa por encima de su línea de señal después de una corta corrección dentro de una tendencia alcista a más largo plazo, aprecia como una confirmación alcista. Si el MACD pasa por debajo de su línea de señal luego de un breve movimiento alcista dentro de una tendencia bajista a más largo plazo, los operadores lo considerarían una confirmación bajista.
El MACD es sencillo y confiable. No solo por la solidez y el posible punto de inflexión de la tendencia, sino también por las fuertes señales de compra y venta. Haciendo que el MACD sea uno de los mejores indicadores de Forex para los comerciantes en todos los estadios de experiencia cuando se habla de una sapiencia actualizada del sentimiento actual del mercado.
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Los comerciantes y los analistas técnicos tienen diferentes formas de determinar la dirección de la tendencia, pero los promedios móviles quizás sean uno de los indicadores técnicos más populares debido a su naturaleza fácil de usar y su multitud de usos al operar. La media móvil en sí misma también puede ser el indicador más importante, ya que sirve como base para muchos otros, como la convergencia/divergencia de la media móvil (MACD).
Definición de media móvil
El promedio móvil (MA) es un promedio de datos de precios específicos durante un período específico, y dado que el precio se mueve continuamente y genera nuevos datos, el promedio también cambia continuamente, de ahí el nombre de promedio móvil.
En el gráfico, la MA es una línea que sigue la tendencia y le da una idea de hacia dónde se mueve el mercado. La media móvil es un indicador rezagado, lo que significa que sigue la tendencia. A menudo se usa junto con otros indicadores para brindarle un indicador de cuándo operar o cuándo una tendencia está a punto de revertirse.
https://preview.redd.it/fyhie5hus9r91.png?width=538&format=png&auto=webp&s=ebdd5a8d9dcad01f8bd2d7d09b8054f5f9ef10d2
Hay algunos tipos diferentes de Medias Móviles y entre ellos los más famosos son:
1. Promedio móvil simple (SMA)
El SMA es un promedio básico de precio durante el período de tiempo especificado. Por ejemplo, si uno traza una SMA de 50 períodos en un gráfico, sumará los 50 precios de cierre anteriores y los dividirá por la cantidad de períodos (50) para determinar cuál debería ser el valor actual de la SMA. La serie de varios puntos se unen para formar una línea.
El precio tiende a estar por encima de los promedios móviles en las tendencias alcistas, ya que varios precios más bajos se incluirán en la lectura desde antes en la tendencia. Por las mismas razones, en una tendencia bajista, la media móvil tendrá una pendiente negativa y el precio estará por debajo de la media móvil.
2. Media Móvil Exponencial (EMA)
Una media móvil exponencial es una variación de las medias móviles, una que da más peso a los datos recientes que a todos los datos.
Dado que la media móvil exponencial da más peso a los datos recientes, es más sensible a los movimientos de precios recientes. Por lo tanto, para el mismo período, la línea EMA está más cerca de las barras de precios que la línea SMA.
3. Promedio móvil ponderado (WMA)
El promedio móvil ponderado (WMA) le brinda un promedio ponderado de los precios recientes, donde la ponderación disminuye con cada precio anterior. Esto funciona de manera similar a la EMA, pero la WMA se calcula de manera diferente.
Puede personalizar la media móvil ponderada más que la SMA y la EMA. Los puntos de precio más recientes generalmente tienen más peso. También podría funcionar a la inversa, dando más peso a los precios históricos.
Comercio con medias móviles
1. Operar con una MA
Este es el enfoque más básico y universal. Dado que solo se necesita un indicador para el análisis, la posición debe estar abierta cuando el precio cruza la MA: si el precio cruza la MA hacia arriba, se abre una posición larga. Si el precio cruza MA hacia abajo, es mejor vender.
https://preview.redd.it/2r31vl2ws9r91.png?width=500&format=png&auto=webp&s=b453dbcff8e7655e8ca5bacb9ab6bd9ddf2c47d7
2. Operar con dos medias móviles
Este enfoque es similar al anterior, pero aquí el gráfico tiene dos MA con diferentes parámetros de tiempo. La señal será la intersección de las dos MA. Por ejemplo, usamos el promedio móvil de 20 días y el promedio móvil de 50 días para ilustrar la estrategia comercial:
https://preview.redd.it/n6lw7paxs9r91.png?width=482&format=png&auto=webp&s=0381211fe8cc3f7f7a844235b5b4d152ac6cb677
Los promedios móviles son el indicador más utilizado entre los comerciantes del mercado financiero: tanto los comerciantes de acción del precio como los seguidores del indicador lo usan. Hay muchas cosas que puede hacer con los promedios móviles: estúdielos y formule una estrategia que se adapte a sus necesidades.
Hay pros y contras y uno debe considerarlos todos al operar con promedios móviles. Debe probar diferentes combinaciones de cruces de medias móviles y luego elegir la que se ajuste a sus necesidades. También debe probar diferentes instrumentos y marcos de tiempo y ver cuál se adapta mejor a su personalidad.
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Post original por u/NHNE aquí
Prefacio: Escribo esto para ayudarme a mí mismo a tener manos de diamante durante el squeeze y no joderme vendiendo demasiado pronto, y para no joder el cohete del short squeeze quitando parte de su combustible demasiado pronto. Este no es un consejo financiero para nadie, solo soy un simio tonto que come crayones.
Sin el poder de la retrospectiva, puede ser bastante desalentador tratar de "cronometrar" la cima. Me veré enfrentado a una situación como esta imagen a continuación. Solo un cohete verde que sube, y mi pensamiento será: "Bueno, ¿cuándo es la cima? ¿Qué tan alto va a llegar? $ 10k suena bien, pero ¿y si llega a $100k o $500k o $ 1 millón?" En el caso de Dryships Inc y su short squeeze, si estuviera en $40k y el precio se disparara a $336k, podría estar pensando, maldita sea, es casi 10 veces, ¿debería vender? ¿Que tan alto llegará? Sigue leyendo para conocer la conclusión de $DRYS.
ACCIÓN DEL PRECIO DE DRYSHIPS INC DURANTE EL SHORT SQUEEZE
Es por eso que no confío en el azar, sino en indicadores técnicos comunes para saber cuándo vender, según lo que sucedió con $DRYS.
Esta guía se dividirá en 4 partes, dónde obtener gráficos técnicos, qué es MACD, qué es Stoch RSI y cómo puedo usar todo esto para saber cuándo vender $GME. Y para aquellos de ustedes que no saben qué es una "estrategia de salida", es básicamente una estrategia de cómo vender $GME sin joderte a ti mismo o joder a otros simios.

PARTE I: ¿DÓNDE CONSEGUIR GRÁFICAS TÉCNICAS?

Si has estado operando sin ver gráficos técnicos. LOL. Pero sí, todo lo que necesita es Trading View, (personalmente yo uso la aplicacion de escritorio de Webull) y sí, es gratis solo debes hacerte una cuenta: https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYSE-GME/
https://preview.redd.it/losbd78ud2g81.png?width=1536&format=png&auto=webp&s=2d167e1d1c19f0c6de03861384afa8b233f314d5
Clic en "advanced chart"
Luego, pasa el mouse sobre el bote de basura en la barra de íconos para que aparezca una flecha hacia la derecha de menú extra. Haz clic en la flecha, luego clic en "remove drawing and indicators" para limpiar el gráfico. Luego, en la barra superior, haga clic en "indicators", luego escribe y haz clic en "Volume", "Stochastic RSI", y "MACD".
https://preview.redd.it/x3c7fpk0f2g81.png?width=829&format=png&auto=webp&s=4cad8b3d8ba435f656f915de21611613bb8130e6
Entonces deberías obtener algo como esto:
https://preview.redd.it/btj9hcy2f2g81.png?width=841&format=png&auto=webp&s=871fb9f53c5c6f20829e24cd69f9a722600ccd80
Ahora que el simio tiene herramienta de palo, pasamos a la parte II.

PARTE II: ¿QUÉ ES MACD?

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/macd.asp https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eob4wv2v--k&t=3s&ab_channel=RaynerTeo
TL; DR para MACD. La divergencia de convergencia del promedio móvil (MACD) indica reversiones de impulso. Tienes 2 líneas, la línea de señal y la línea MACD. La línea de señal es naranja y la línea MACD es azul en Trading View. Las barras te muestran la distancia entre estas dos líneas. Barras verdes si MACD es más alto que la línea de señal. Barras rojas si MACD es más bajo que la línea de señal. Básicamente, las grandes barras verdes muestran un fuerte impulso positivo. Las grandes barras rojas muestran un fuerte impulso negativo.

PARTE III: ¿QUÉ ES EL STOCHASTIC RSI?

TL; DR para Stoch RSI

Una lectura Stoch RSI por encima de 0,8 se considera sobrecompra, mientras que una lectura por debajo de 0,2 se considera sobreventa. En la escala de cero a 100, por encima de 80 es sobrecompra y por debajo de 20 es sobreventa.
La sobrecompra no significa necesariamente que el precio retrocederá a la baja, al igual que la sobreventa no significa que el precio se revertirá al alza. Más bien, las condiciones de sobrecompra y sobreventa simplemente alertan a los operadores de que el RSI está cerca de los extremos de sus lecturas recientes.

PARTE IV: ¿QUÉ HAGO CON ESTA INFORMACIÓN Y CÓMO ME AYUDA A SABER CUÁNDO VENDER GME?

Una cosa a tener en cuenta es que vender demasiado temprano REALMENTE, REALMENTE ralentiza el cohete hacia Andrómeda, por lo que definitivamente intentaré vender DESPUÉS del pico y no antes. ¿Por qué? Porque en una guerra de ofertas por GME hasta el infinito, no quiero proporcionarles más acciones de GME, porque un incremento en la oferta disminuirá el precio.
Aquí es donde entra en juego el uso de MACD y Stoch RSI:
Lo que pasó con $DRYS
Así que echando un vistazo al estudio del caso de $DRYS, si vendí $DRYS a $336k, DEFINITIVAMENTE me habría perdido el pico de +$800k por MUCHO.
A partir del este estudio del caso, lo que veo es que tendré mi STOCH RSI en niveles súper altos durante el período del cohete, y mi indicador MACD estará por encima de la línea de tendencias y tendré barras verdes.
Esa pequeña caída falsa en $500k probablemente sacó a muchos manos de papel, y tengo el STOCH RSI entrando en la región de sobreventa hasta 0, pero mi MACD todavía está por encima de la línea de tendencia y todavía está cerca del impulso positivo máximo. También vemos que el STOCH RSI se recupera.
Luego, acercándose a la parte superior y pasandola, tengo otra caída en el STOCH RSI de 70 a 0 y comienza la caída del precio. Esto también está señalado por el MACD que se acerca a 0 y con barras más débiles. Entonces, a partir de esta acción del precio, puedo ver que un buen momento para vender habría sido cuando el MACD se acerca a 0 MIENTRAS que el STOCH RSI también iba bajando hacia la región de sobreventa más allá de 30. Si vendiera en esa región en el gráfico donde MACD estaba cerca de 0 mientras que el STOCH RSI estaba en la región 30, entonces habría vendido $ DRYS por $ 725k, que es el 90% de la cima, ¡lo cual no está nada mal! ¡Y si hubiera hecho esto, entonces también fue genial porque no vendí durante el camino hacia arriba y no hice nada para frenar el cohete!
EDICIÓN ADICIONAL: Me llamaron la atención de no descuidar el volumen, por lo que al mirar el volumen, obviamente sabemos que, dado que estamos HODLING, el volumen será muy pequeño y el comercio será seco. Así que históricamente eso es en el rango de como 10-30 millones. Pero, a medida que ocurre el squeeze, el volumen aumentará drásticamente, por lo que al observar $DRYS, también podemos ver que este es el caso. Podemos ver un breve aumento en el volumen que hace duplica el precio, luego hubo un período de HODLING y el volumen básicamente inexistente (¿te suena familiar?). Luego podemos ver en el día 14, BOOM, volumen demencial, y damas y caballeros, ¡el squeeze está en marcha! A medida que aumenta el precio, también lo hace el volumen, que alcanza su punto máximo alrededor de la mitad del squeeze. A medida que más y más personas cubren, la presión de compra es menor y el volumen de compra crece menos. Puede ver que el volumen disminuye hacia la parte superior y un poco más allá de la parte superior. Mientras tanto, el volumen de venta es básicamente inverso. Habría poco o ningún volumen de venta durante el squeeze (excepto para las perras de manos de papel), pero en general el volumen de venta aumentará a medida que llegue al pico y se disparará una vez que las acciones caigan a tierra.
Ahora, de nuevo, este es solo UN estudio de un caso de muchos squeeze. No he investigado más sobre otros estudios de casos. Pero creo que si los simios más inteligentes pueden agregar datos de todos los otros short squeeze, tal vez puedan encontrar mejores patrones e indicadores sobre cuándo vender. Eso es lo que voy a hacer durante el resto de la semana. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
EDITAR: No, esto no es infalible ni podemos esperar que GME refleje DRYS y se comporte de manera similar, pero es algo a tener en cuenta, ya que los titulares de GME juegamos el mismo juego de tratar de vender cerca o un poco después del pico.
EDICIÓN 2: Me ha llamado la atención que algunos de ustedes, simios con cerebros más lisos, piensan que toda esta acción de precios para DRYS ocurrirá en solo unas pocas horas. Si observas la escala de tiempo en la parte inferior, puedes ver que el aumento significativo de precios del squeeze comenzó el 14 de noviembre, alcanzó los 500k el 16 de noviembre y finalmente alcanzó su punto máximo el 17 de noviembre. En otras palabras, NP, SABRÁS cuándo está ocurriendo el squeeze, mucho tiempo desde el squeeze hasta la cima.
EDICIÓN 3: No tengo idea de por qué muestra el precio de $DRYS en cientos de miles. Sinceramente, tuve problemas para encontrar datos sobre este stock y esto es todo lo que pude encontrar. Si tal vez alguien más tiene un mejor recurso para obtener datos sobre acciones antiguas, me encantaría saberlo para poder investigar más sobre acciones con short squeeze.
EDIT 4: Volumen agregado

Bueno, ya todos estamos conscientes de los resultados que están arrojando los conteos rápidos y demás. Creo que la gran mayoría del sub nos encontramos decepcionados por ellos. Estos últimos años la verdad es que no han sido nada buenos. El partido reinante se ha dedicado a imponer reformas retrógradas y a regalar subsidios. No hemos visto una evolución ni en el sector económico, ni en el educativo, ni en el de salud, ni en el de seguridad. Perdimos a mas de 400 mil personas en la pandemia del corona virus, sin duda alguna la actitud del presidente frente a este fenómeno mundial tuvo que ver con ello. Y aún así, la gente volvió a votar por Morena, ¿Por qué? Creo que la respuesta obvia es la ignorancia del pueblo, las personas creen que esos insignificantes subsidios son equivalente a buen gobierno; su visión limitada del mundo los confina a esas suposiciones absurdas. Morena es una partido que declara preocuparse primero por los pobres, pero esto no es verdad; mientras cada vez mas mexicanos entran a la pobreza, los funcionarios morenistas siguen viviendo en la opulencia; me gustaría ver a todos esos funcionarios que declaran ser austeros, vivir con el sueldo promedio de un mexicano. Mientras cada vez más mexicanos sufren los abusos del crimen organizado, el presidente dice que en todo el país hay paz y tranquilidad. Mientras miles y miles de personas sufrieron la perdida de un ser querido en la pandemia, el gobierno declara que la ha manejado bien. Recordemos como las mujeres justamente enojadas se encontraron con un muro silencioso cuando buscaron justicia por todas las desaparecidas y asesinadas. Morena ha fallado. Tuvieron todo para ser un movimiento positivamente histórico, y decidieron ser unas lacras mas. Pero, la gente volvió a votar por ellos. Hay algunos destellos de luz entre esta oscuridad, logramos que el partido reinante perdiera la mayoría absoluta que amaban presumir; cambiar la constitución ya no les será fácil. Perdieron asientos en la cámara de diputados, eso quiere decir que, comparado a 2018, definitivamente hubo gente que despertó. De cara a 2024, tenemos una gran responsabilidad como ciudadanos. No podemos quedarnos callados, no podemos demostrar pasividad ante un gobierno que nos quiere pasar por encima. Tenemos que expresarnos, concientizar gente, incitar a las personas a que se informen, incitarlos a ser ciudadanos participativos y propositivos. Una de las cosas de las cuales estoy mas convencido respecto a la evolución del país, es que tenemos que dejar atrás esas lealtades políticas que tanto nos han dividido y dañado, y en su lugar, unirnos sobre esas esperanzas que compartimos. México puede ser un gran país, pero el primer paso hacia ello lo encontraremos dentro de nosotros. A partir de ahora mas que nunca, es momento de alzar la voz. Es momento de luchar por un futuro mejor, no momento de resignarnos a nuestro presente mediocre. Espero de todo corazón, que estos últimos años y los que siguen sirvan como una sacudida que nos despertara, y no como una que nos derrumbara definitivamente. Parafraseando un poco mas a Denisse Dresser, en tiempos de divergencias, espero que insistamos en las convergencias. Es la única manera que tenemos hacia adelante. Viva México🇲🇽

This post got a ton of love on the SEO sub, so thought I'd post it here too.
Tl;dr link building is a pain, and it's a sticking point for a lot of SEOs. Over the past year, I've built over 300 backlinks for clients and documented my learnings in this post.
I’ll cover some of the basics of link-building for those of you who are just getting started, as well as some niche-specific stuff I learned from doing (the type of stuff you won’t find in regular blog posts).
If you have any questions, drop em' in the comments! Let's go:

#1. Link-building works differently in every niche

One huge mistake a lot of people make with link-building is treating it as a one-size-fits-all strategy.
In reality, the link-building process differs a ton based on the niche you’re in.
If you’re in a very popular niche, link-building is going to be on the easier side. There are a TON of people who blog about topics like:

Fitness
Self-development
Parenthood
Weddings

So, you’ll have a much easier time doing prospecting, outreach, and closing backlinks.
If you’re in some very niche B2B industry, on the other hand, things are going to be a lot different. Chances are, you’re not going to find someone casually blogging about buying/selling used machinery, for example, so your prospect pool is going to be way smaller.
Here are some specific things I learned about link-building in different SEO niches:

If you’re in a consumer-oriented niche, you have a ton of potential prospects and they’re usually receptive to outreach. Compliment their blog, offer an incentive (more on this later), and you’re good to go!
If you’re in a competitive niche (CBD, gambling, forex, etc.), you’ll always have to pay for backlinks, and the fee will be pretty high. The best prospecting tactic for this is finding websites that link to your competitors, as it’s guaranteed they’ll be willing to link to a site in a risky niche.
If you want to build backlinks from SaaS websites, you’ll want to offer a backlink in return or some other kind of useful resource for them. Otherwise, there is a very low chance of getting a reply.
If you’re in a niche no one blogs about, your best bet is to find blogs in adjacent niches and pitch guest posts. E.g. If your site sells used machinery, you can find engineering or tech blogs and pitch (paid) guest posts.

#2. Offer something for the backlink

It’s 2022 - everyone who’s ever run a website knows just how valuable backlinks are.
So why would you think that a site owner is going to be happy to link to you just because your content is cool?
If you want someone to give your website a link, you should be willing to give something in return.
This something can, for example, be straight-up cash. If your outreach prospects are part-time bloggers that don’t know how to monetize their website, a one-time placement fee is going to get you very good response rates.
Alternatively, you can offer a backlink exchange. You link to them, they link to you - it’s a win-win situation. Unless you do this at scale, Google is very unlikely to catch on.
Ahrefs did a study on this a while back and found that 73%+ of websites have reciprocal links, which means this is a natural occurrence on the Internet and unlikely to get you penalized.
Finally, you can offer a free product in exchange for that backlink.

If you run an online store, you can send them a free pair of sneakers (or whatever else you’re selling).
If you’re in the SaaS game, you can offer free access to your software. E.g. one of the email finder companies offered 500 credits in exchange for a single backlink.

Yes, I know this is against Google’s policies, but practically speaking, this is what works these days.

#3. Your competitors don’t really have thousands of backlinks

This one’s a bit of a rookie mistake, but since most people don’t know about it, I thought I’d cover this too.
If you run a random website through Ahrefs, you’ll see that they have thousands or tens of thousands of backlinks.
If your site is brand-new, this might seem super intimidating.
How are you ever going to catch up with THAT many backlinks?
Well, the truth is, your competitors don’t actually have that many backlinks - 95% of those links are junk links that have zero impact.
To get a real view of your competitor’s backlink profile, do the following on Ahrefs or SEMrush:

Filter for do-follow links only (meaning, only links that have SEO effect)
Backlink type: in content (basically you’re only looking for backlinks that are placed in blog posts as opposed to headers or footers of the site)
DR: 20+ (less than that usually means that the backlink carries very little juice)

And you’ll see their total number of backlinks go from 2,500 to just 95.
Which is a MUCH more reasonable target! If you want to hit 95 backlinks within a year, that’s only eight backlinks per month, VS 208 links if your real target was 2,500.

#4. Learn to evaluate backlinks

Way too many people make the mistake of basing link-building decisions on DA/DR.
These metrics, however, are good for a surface-level analysis. If you want to learn the value of a backlink, you need to dive deeper.
Some things to look at when analyzing a backlink are:

DA/DR. Use this just to exclude low DR (<10 DR) backlink prospects. Such links won’t carry much weight, so you can safely exclude them.
Traffic. The more traffic a website is driving, the more likely it is that it’s in Google’s good graces.
Traffic trend. Is the website’s traffic stable? Even if a site is driving ~2,000 traffic, it’s still a bad link prospect if last month they were driving 20,000. This means that they likely got penalized.
Keywords. What kind of keywords is the site ranking for? Link farms sometimes rank for very easy (but useless) keywords to make it seem like they’re good link prospects. If the site ranks for keywords associated with your niche, that’s great!
Contextual relevance. Is the blog/page you’re getting a link from relevant to your website? A link from a cooking blog to a digital marketing blog won’t be very helpful. The same goes for page relevance. A link from an article on golf to your article about digital marketing won’t look natural at all, and Google will likely ignore it.

#5. Really nail down your prospecting ops

The success of every outreach campaign primarily depends on two factors:

Are you picking the right prospects?
Are your outreach emails engaging enough?

Let’s talk about #1 first.
There are a ton of ways to do prospecting depending on the niche you’re in, so I’ll just give you a bunch of tactics that work for me.
But first, here’s the prep work:

Hire a VA. This is non-negotiable. Prospecting takes a TON of time, but it’s also something that you can learn how to do very fast and easily. No point doing it yourself.
Teach your VA how to evaluate backlink prospects. They should know to exclude all big websites, how to detect backlink farms, and how to find sites that fit your criteria.
Start by doing a competitive backlink audit. If someone linked to your competitor, chances are they’ll link to you, too. Use Ahrefs or SEMrush for this.
Teach your VA how to find prospects for a given website. Use tools like Hunter or Snov to find the email addresses and teach them to prioritize roles as follows: SEO lead > content marketing lead > head of marketing or CMO > CEO, founder, or owner. If a site has an SEO lead, they’re the best person to contact. If they don't, there's the content lead, and so on. If it’s a solo website, then the founder is your only option.

And the tactics:

Pick a category of blogs that are likely to link to you. E.g. If you have a fitness site, the categories could be men’s health, fitness, weight lifting, sports, football, etc. Give your VAs to collect such websites. Do outreach first and find link placement opportunities second.
Create a list of keywords that are related to your niche, but not something you’ll ever cover. Give these keywords to your VA and get them to extract all sites that rank for them.
Run your backlink prospects through Ahrefs/SEMrush. Extract their backlink profiles. Exclude domains that don’t fit your criteria and reach out to the ones that do.

#6. Be creative with your outreach templates

Now let’s talk about email copy.
The first thing you need to know here is that the email copy template you found online is absolutely useless.
No one’s going to give out their winning email strategy just like that. The moment you publish a quality email template online, it’s going to be overused so much that it’ll stop working.
Take the skyscraper technique for example.
I get the same exact email template messages in my inbox daily.
“Hey name, you linked to X, I created Y which is cooler, so please link to it.”
Unless your content is something really amazing, this won’t work.
What you want to do is be creative with your copy. Create 4-5 emails that YOU would like to receive and test how well they work.
Some tips on how to do this:

Check your inbox for outreach emails. Go through them and see which ones impact you the most. Base your ideas on those.
Make a genuine compliment in the email. Something that can be reused for different websites without being too generic.
Offer up something up-front. Why should they link to you? What do you have to offer them?
Make it low-effort. Tell them EXACTLY where you want your link placed. The less effort they have to put into the placement, the more likely they are to do it.
Make sure that your cold emails don’t have any links or images. The cleaner your outreach emails, the more likely it is that they won’t end up in the spam folder.
Personalize as much as possible. The more personal elements you include in the email, the better it’ll work. Name, website name, a specific post you liked on their blog, something about their website you really liked, and so on.

#7. Re-use your prospect lists

In a lot of cases, the reason you don’t get a reply from your prospect is simply that they were not feeling like it at the time.
Shocker, I know.
It’s not that they hate you for your cold email (unless they explicitly told you so), or that they’re not interested (they might very well be) - it’s just that they missed your email, forgot about it, or simply didn’t feel like replying at the time.
So, what you can do here is simply resend your outreach to the same prospect 2-3 months later, once they forget about your original email.
A while back, we ran this exact experiment - we reached out to 200 prospects that previously didn’t reply to our outreach.
From the 200 emails, we got 30 replies, and out of the 30 replies, we got 10 backlink placement opportunities!
That said, don’t be a spammer. If the above tactic works once, it doesn't mean that you should keep hammering the prospects who didn’t reply until they block your email.

#8. Take advantage of inbound outreach emails

If you have a long-running website, chances are, you get a link-building outreach email 2-3 times a week.
Here’s you can take advantage of that:

Make a counteroffer for link placement. You’ll get them a backlink if they include a link to your site in a guest post on a third-party domain.
Offer up a backlink exchange. They link to you, you link to them.
Get inspired by their email copy. If their outreach email copy is really creative, you can base your own outreach copy on it.

#9. When something doesn’t work, dig deep

Sometimes, you’ll see that your link-building just isn’t working.
In such cases, it’s important to know how to troubleshoot your campaigns. Here’s what I do:

Check on your prospecting. Are the sites you’re collecting likely to link to you? No, Healthline or Forbes are NOT going to link to you, no matter how good your outreach game is.
Check whether you’re getting the right point of contact. If you’re emailing the CEO when the company has an SEO lead, they’re never going to reply to you.
Check on your open rates. What percentage of your emails are being opened? If the number is too low, it’s because your email is going to spam, or the subject line is not engaging enough.
Check your reply rates. What percentage of all email opens lead to a reply? If the reply rate is low, the fault is either in your prospecting (wrong contacts, bad link prospects), in your email copy (it’s too generic or uninteresting), or in your offer (the prospect doesn't care about what you’re offering for the link).

#10. It’s all a numbers game

Finally, I’ll wrap up this post by saying that link-building is a numbers game.
At the end of the day, most of your prospects won’t reply, and won’t care.
So, do this:
Pick an estimated success rate number. On average, 2.5% - 10% of your outreach emails are going to result in a backlink. Let’s assume a more conservative estimate and go for 2.5% to 5%, as this rate depends on a ton of factors.
So from 100 link prospects, you can expect to get from 2 to 5 backlinks. Then, work backward from there. How many backlinks do you want to build per month?
If your monthly goal is, say, ten backlinks, then to be on the safe side, you should be sending out 500 outreach emails per month.
From there, all you have to do is hire a prospecting VA, give them a daily prospecting KPI, and run your drip outreach campaign with the email software of your choice!

Hey, guys! I've read a ton of questions on this sub about link-building, so thought I'd post this here too.
All the SEO bloggers out there keep writing about the same tactics for years now, most of which just don’t work in 2022.
Over the past year, I’ve built over 300+ backlinks for several clients, so I thought I’d do a recap post of all the things I’ve learned from the experience!
I’ll cover some of the basics of link-building for those of you who are just getting started, as well as some niche-specific stuff I learned from doing (the type of stuff you won’t find in regular blog posts).
So, let’s get started:

#1. Link-building works differently in every niche

Fitness
Self-development
Parenthood
Weddings

If you’re in a consumer-oriented niche, you have a ton of potential prospects and they’re usually receptive to outreach. Compliment their blog, offer an incentive (more on this later), and you’re good to go!
If you’re in a competitive niche (CBD, gambling, forex, etc.), you’ll always have to pay for backlinks, and the fee will be pretty high. The best prospecting tactic for this is finding websites that link to your competitors, as it’s guaranteed they’ll be willing to link to a site in a risky niche.
If you want to build backlinks from SaaS websites, you’ll want to offer a backlink in return or some other kind of useful resource for them. Otherwise, there is a very low chance of getting a reply.
If you’re in a niche no one blogs about, your best bet is to find blogs in adjacent niches and pitch guest posts. E.g. If your site sells used machinery, you can find engineering or tech blogs and pitch (paid) guest posts.

#2. Offer something for the backlink

If you run an online store, you can send them a free pair of sneakers (or whatever else you’re selling).
If you’re in the SaaS game, you can offer free access to your software. E.g. one of the email finder companies offered 500 credits in exchange for a single backlink.

Yes, I know this is against Google’s policies, but practically speaking, this is what works these days.

#3. Your competitors don’t really have thousands of backlinks

Filter for do-follow links only (meaning, only links that have SEO effect)
Backlink type: in content (basically you’re only looking for backlinks that are placed in blog posts as opposed to headers or footers of the site)
DR: 20+ (less than that usually means that the backlink carries very little juice)

#4. Learn to evaluate backlinks

DA/DR. Use this just to exclude low DR (<10 DR) backlink prospects. Such links won’t carry much weight, so you can safely exclude them.
Traffic. The more traffic a website is driving, the more likely it is that it’s in Google’s good graces.
Traffic trend. Is the website’s traffic stable? Even if a site is driving ~2,000 traffic, it’s still a bad link prospect if last month they were driving 20,000. This means that they likely got penalized.
Keywords. What kind of keywords is the site ranking for? Link farms sometimes rank for very easy (but useless) keywords to make it seem like they’re good link prospects. If the site ranks for keywords associated with your niche, that’s great!
Contextual relevance. Is the blog/page you’re getting a link from relevant to your website? A link from a cooking blog to a digital marketing blog won’t be very helpful. The same goes for page relevance. A link from an article on golf to your article about digital marketing won’t look natural at all, and Google will likely ignore it.

#5. Really nail down your prospecting ops

The success of every outreach campaign primarily depends on two factors:

Are you picking the right prospects?
Are your outreach emails engaging enough?

Hire a VA. This is non-negotiable. Prospecting takes a TON of time, but it’s also something that you can learn how to do very fast and easily. No point doing it yourself.
Teach your VA how to evaluate backlink prospects. They should know to exclude all big websites, how to detect backlink farms, and how to find sites that fit your criteria.
Start by doing a competitive backlink audit. If someone linked to your competitor, chances are they’ll link to you, too. Use Ahrefs or SEMrush for this.
Teach your VA how to find prospects for a given website. Use tools like Hunter or Snov to find the email addresses and teach them to prioritize roles as follows: SEO lead > content marketing lead > head of marketing or CMO > CEO, founder, or owner. If a site has an SEO lead, they’re the best person to contact. If they don't, there's the content lead, and so on. If it’s a solo website, then the founder is your only option.

And the tactics:

Pick a category of blogs that are likely to link to you. E.g. If you have a fitness site, the categories could be men’s health, fitness, weight lifting, sports, football, etc. Give your VAs to collect such websites. Do outreach first and find link placement opportunities second.
Create a list of keywords that are related to your niche, but not something you’ll ever cover. Give these keywords to your VA and get them to extract all sites that rank for them.
Run your backlink prospects through Ahrefs/SEMrush. Extract their backlink profiles. Exclude domains that don’t fit your criteria and reach out to the ones that do.

#6. Be creative with your outreach templates

Check your inbox for outreach emails. Go through them and see which ones impact you the most. Base your ideas on those.
Make a genuine compliment in the email. Something that can be reused for different websites without being too generic.
Offer up something up-front. Why should they link to you? What do you have to offer them?
Make it low-effort. Tell them EXACTLY where you want your link placed. The less effort they have to put into the placement, the more likely they are to do it.
Make sure that your cold emails don’t have any links or images. The cleaner your outreach emails, the more likely it is that they won’t end up in the spam folder.
Personalize as much as possible. The more personal elements you include in the email, the better it’ll work. Name, website name, a specific post you liked on their blog, something about their website you really liked, and so on.

#7. Re-use your prospect lists

#8. Take advantage of inbound outreach emails

If you have a long-running website, chances are, you get a link-building outreach email 2-3 times a week.
Here’s you can take advantage of that:

Make a counteroffer for link placement. You’ll get them a backlink if they include a link to your site in a guest post on a third-party domain.
Offer up a backlink exchange. They link to you, you link to them.
Get inspired by their email copy. If their outreach email copy is really creative, you can base your own outreach copy on it.

#9. When something doesn’t work, dig deep

Sometimes, you’ll see that your link-building just isn’t working.
In such cases, it’s important to know how to troubleshoot your campaigns. Here’s what I do:

Check on your prospecting. Are the sites you’re collecting likely to link to you? No, Healthline or Forbes are NOT going to link to you, no matter how good your outreach game is.
Check whether you’re getting the right point of contact. If you’re emailing the CEO when the company has an SEO lead, they’re never going to reply to you.
Check on your open rates. What percentage of your emails are being opened? If the number is too low, it’s because your email is going to spam, or the subject line is not engaging enough.
Check your reply rates. What percentage of all email opens lead to a reply? If the reply rate is low, the fault is either in your prospecting (wrong contacts, bad link prospects), in your email copy (it’s too generic or uninteresting), or in your offer (the prospect doesn't care about what you’re offering for the link).

#10. It’s all a numbers game

Hey, guys! If you’ve ever tried link-building, you’ll probably agree that it’s a tough nut to crack.
All the SEO bloggers out there keep rehashing the same tactics, most of which just don’t work in 2022.
Over the past year, I’ve built over 300+ backlinks for several clients, so I thought I’d do a recap post of all the things I’ve learned from the experience!
I’ll cover some of the basics of link-building for those of you who are just getting started, as well as some niche-specific stuff I learned from doing (the type of stuff you won’t find in regular blog posts).
So, let’s get started:

#1. Link-building works differently in every niche

Fitness
Self-development
Parenthood
Weddings

If you’re in a consumer-oriented niche, you have a ton of potential prospects and they’re usually receptive to outreach. Compliment their blog, offer an incentive (more on this later), and you’re good to go!
If you’re in a competitive niche (CBD, gambling, forex, etc.), you’ll always have to pay for backlinks, and the fee will be pretty high. The best prospecting tactic for this is finding websites that link to your competitors, as it’s guaranteed they’ll be willing to link to a site in a risky niche.
If you want to build backlinks from SaaS websites, you’ll want to offer a backlink in return or some other kind of useful resource for them. Otherwise, there is a very low chance of getting a reply.
If you’re in a niche no one blogs about, your best bet is to find blogs in adjacent niches and pitch guest posts. E.g. If your site sells used machinery, you can find engineering or tech blogs and pitch (paid) guest posts.

#2. Offer something for the backlink

If you run an online store, you can send them a free pair of sneakers (or whatever else you’re selling).
If you’re in the SaaS game, you can offer free access to your software. E.g. one of the email finder companies offered 500 credits in exchange for a single backlink.

Yes, I know this is against Google’s policies, but practically speaking, this is what works these days.

#3. Your competitors don’t really have thousands of backlinks

Filter for do-follow links only (meaning, only links that have SEO effect)
Backlink type: in content (basically you’re only looking for backlinks that are placed in blog posts as opposed to headers or footers of the site)
DR: 20+ (less than that usually means that the backlink carries very little juice)

#4. Learn to evaluate backlinks

DA/DR. Use this just to exclude low DR (<10 DR) backlink prospects. Such links won’t carry much weight, so you can safely exclude them.
Traffic. The more traffic a website is driving, the more likely it is that it’s in Google’s good graces.
Traffic trend. Is the website’s traffic stable? Even if a site is driving ~2,000 traffic, it’s still a bad link prospect if last month they were driving 20,000. This means that they likely got penalized.
Keywords. What kind of keywords is the site ranking for? Link farms sometimes rank for very easy (but useless) keywords to make it seem like they’re good link prospects. If the site ranks for keywords associated with your niche, that’s great!
Contextual relevance. Is the blog/page you’re getting a link from relevant to your website? A link from a cooking blog to a digital marketing blog won’t be very helpful. The same goes for page relevance. A link from an article on golf to your article about digital marketing won’t look natural at all, and Google will likely ignore it.

#5. Really nail down your prospecting ops

The success of every outreach campaign primarily depends on two factors:

Are you picking the right prospects?
Are your outreach emails engaging enough?

Hire a VA. This is non-negotiable. Prospecting takes a TON of time, but it’s also something that you can learn how to do very fast and easily. No point doing it yourself.
Teach your VA how to evaluate backlink prospects. They should know to exclude all big websites, how to detect backlink farms, and how to find sites that fit your criteria.
Start by doing a competitive backlink audit. If someone linked to your competitor, chances are they’ll link to you, too. Use Ahrefs or SEMrush for this.
Teach your VA how to find prospects for a given website. Use tools like Hunter or Snov to find the email addresses and teach them to prioritize roles as follows: SEO lead > content marketing lead > head of marketing or CMO > CEO, founder, or owner. If a site has an SEO lead, they’re the best person to contact. If they don't, there's the content lead, and so on. If it’s a solo website, then the founder is your only option.

And the tactics:

Pick a category of blogs that are likely to link to you. E.g. If you have a fitness site, the categories could be men’s health, fitness, weight lifting, sports, football, etc. Give your VAs to collect such websites. Do outreach first and find link placement opportunities second.
Create a list of keywords that are related to your niche, but not something you’ll ever cover. Give these keywords to your VA and get them to extract all sites that rank for them.
Run your backlink prospects through Ahrefs/SEMrush. Extract their backlink profiles. Exclude domains that don’t fit your criteria and reach out to the ones that do.

#6. Be creative with your outreach templates

Check your inbox for outreach emails. Go through them and see which ones impact you the most. Base your ideas on those.
Make a genuine compliment in the email. Something that can be reused for different websites without being too generic.
Offer up something up-front. Why should they link to you? What do you have to offer them?
Make it low-effort. Tell them EXACTLY where you want your link placed. The less effort they have to put into the placement, the more likely they are to do it.
Make sure that your cold emails don’t have any links or images. The cleaner your outreach emails, the more likely it is that they won’t end up in the spam folder.
Personalize as much as possible. The more personal elements you include in the email, the better it’ll work. Name, website name, a specific post you liked on their blog, something about their website you really liked, and so on.

#7. Re-use your prospect lists

#8. Take advantage of inbound outreach emails

If you have a long-running website, chances are, you get a link-building outreach email 2-3 times a week.
Here’s you can take advantage of that:

Make a counteroffer for link placement. You’ll get them a backlink if they include a link to your site in a guest post on a third-party domain.
Offer up a backlink exchange. They link to you, you link to them.
Get inspired by their email copy. If their outreach email copy is really creative, you can base your own outreach copy on it.

#9. When something doesn’t work, dig deep

Sometimes, you’ll see that your link-building just isn’t working.
In such cases, it’s important to know how to troubleshoot your campaigns. Here’s what I do:

Check on your prospecting. Are the sites you’re collecting likely to link to you? No, Healthline or Forbes are NOT going to link to you, no matter how good your outreach game is.
Check whether you’re getting the right point of contact. If you’re emailing the CEO when the company has an SEO lead, they’re never going to reply to you.
Check on your open rates. What percentage of your emails are being opened? If the number is too low, it’s because your email is going to spam, or the subject line is not engaging enough.
Check your reply rates. What percentage of all email opens lead to a reply? If the reply rate is low, the fault is either in your prospecting (wrong contacts, bad link prospects), in your email copy (it’s too generic or uninteresting), or in your offer (the prospect doesn't care about what you’re offering for the link).

#10. It’s all a numbers game

Thanks for reading!

If you dug this post, I’d appreciate it if you checked out my subreddit, /seogrowth. Trying to make it THE go-to sub for SEO on Reddit and I reply to all questions there personally. You can also check out the full post on the blog with screenshots and all that good stuff if you’re curious.

Ben Zhou, cofundador y director ejecutivo de Bybit, uno de los 3 principales exchanges de criptomonedas del mundo por tráfico web, ha pedido a los mercados tradicionales que adopten el cambio impulsado por las criptomonedas.
Hablando en Pantera Blockchain Summit Asia esta semana, Zhou discutió la creciente convergencia entre las instituciones financieras tradicionales y las criptomonedas. "La infraestructura ya está en su lugar y las grandes instituciones ya están explorando y participando en múltiples niveles con los líderes cripto", comentó.
Y dijo: "Wall St podría hacer mucho más para adoptar realmente la innovación en el mercado y seguir siendo relevante", agregando que las firmas tradicionales de servicios financieros corren el riesgo de enfrentar el mismo destino que Nokia.
"Wall St tiene mucho que ganar si adopta las criptomonedas, y no al revés". añadió.

You better watch out, Martians. 🚀🚀🚀
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Stack up some nice points by reading The Daily Dogelon. 📰

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There goes the dystopia!
Source: https://twitter.com/DogelonWarriors/status/1599825419746050048

A new week naturally means one thing... A new Dogelon Warriors comic issue! 🦸
Ladies and gentlemen, buckle up. You'll need to mentally prepare for this. 🧠
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Contemporary Earth! We're only speculating of course, so have a look for yourselves below. 👇

🥂 Third time's the charm:

Officially publicised!
Source: https://twitter.com/ElonEnigma/status/1599844699690438659

With a fantastic debut on the podcasting front, Elongevity is back for more. 🙋‍♂️
Yet another community-driven project that's seeking out the greatest topics and minds! 👨‍🏫
This week, they're featuring leading forensic and medical academic, Dr Jari Louhelainen. 🎉
In case you missed Methuselah's initial announcement of the release, now's your chance. 👏
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See ya, bot.

Wise, as always.

Getting the gang back together.

Here are some ELON exchanges 📊 for your convenience:

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✅ Bilax y

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Happy Tuesday, Barkada --

The PSE gained 68 points to 6355 ▲1.1%

Thanks to Spyfrat's Call for the meme appreciation, and to Jing for the trauma bonding over our unmet DDMPR expectations.
There is a lot of reading for me to do on the quarterly earnings reports, and I will definitely be taking a deeper dive on a few stocks (like MONDE) over the coming days. Let me know if there are any stocks that you'd like to see covered and I'll see what I can do!
Shout-outs to rethon-ji, John, Stephen Chiong, Makisig Tan, Pao, Jonathan Burac, Just’n, LanAustria, CubicTrade, Palaboy Trader, mArQo, arkitrader, Lance Nazal, Grumpy Trader, Chip Sillesa, Dividend Pinoy | PGG, Rolex Jodieres, leaf, and Jing for the retweets, and to Padilla GJ, Genesis Umali, Evolves.co and Mike Ting for the FB shares!

▌In today's MB:

DITO forex losses climb to ₱6-B in Q3
PSE: Twenty companies seeking Q3 reporting deadline extension
MREIT declares slightly lower Q3 div
Phoenix Petroleum Q3 profit ▼1,051% y/y

▌Daily meme | Subscribe (it's free) | Today's email

▌Main stories covered:

[Q3] DITO forex losses climb to ₱6-B in Q3... DITO CME [DITO 2.81 ▼2.09%] [link] reported Q3 profit down 88% y/y, and down 28% q/q, to a net loss of ₱11 billion. DITO’s 9M profit is down 174% y/y to a net loss of ₱26 billion, driven largely by the degrading value of the Philippine Peso relative to the US Dollar, and the unrealized foreign exchange losses that DITO has accumulated on its huge outstanding dollar-denominated debts. DITO noted ₱2.9 billion in unrealized forex losses in Q1, ₱4.4 billion in Q2, and now another ₱6 billion in Q3, for a total of ₱13.3 billion since the start of the year. DITO said that it had 13.1 million subscribers at the end of Q3 (up 36% from Q2), and that they generated an average revenue per user (ARPU) of ₱77.3 per month. The ARPU figure is down 4.6% from DITO’s H1/22 ARPU of ₱81/month. DITO’s current ratio (current assets / current liabilities) at the end of Q3 was 0.02. For reference, DITO’s competitors, Globe [GLO 2212.00 ▼3.83%] and SMART [TEL 1544.00 ▲0.92%] have current ratios that bounce between 0.33 and 0.45.

MB: In the management discussion and analysis section of the financial statements, DITO’s management says that “despite its reported capital deficiency, management is confident that [DITO] can continue as a going concern as management believes that [DITO’s] ability to continue as a going concern is dependent upon its ability to generate sufficient cash flows to meet its maturing obligations.” It’s kind of a weird wording. Maybe I’m being too picky, but it feels like DITO’s management is not explicitly stating that they believe they will generate enough cash flow to meet maturing obligations, only that they believe that DITO’s ability to avoid bankruptcy will depend on its ability to do that. It’s true that their subscriber count is growing quite quickly, but the amount of revenue that they’re getting from each of those subscribers is low and going lower over time. Sure, GLO’s ARPU was only about ₱80/month for 88 million subscribers, and TEL’s ARPU was about ₱106/month for 68 million subscribers. And those are fully mature businesses that have already built out their initial networks. The point is that it’s not like DITO just has to survive for a few more years before it passes through some magical barrier where costs fall dramatically and profits start to skyrocket. Once the initial build-out is done, it’s still going to need to have a significant yearly budget for capex to keep pace and keep growing. It’s low-cost strategy is going to keep its ARPU low, which will suppress revenues. That debt isn’t going anywhere. And while Udenna and China have “committed” to infuse additional capital into Dito Tel, Dennis Uy’s companies are bleeding out the ears, so it’s not like there’s a cash cow in the group that can serve as a gold farm for Udenna’s portion of that commitment.

[Q3] Twenty companies now seeking a Q3 earnings report deadline extension... The list of companies that are seeking deadline extensions from the PSE exploded in size yesterday, as the PSE’s deadline for submission of Q3 earnings reports came and went. There are now 20 companies that are unable to comply with the PSE’s reporting requirements, up from just eight the day before. COL Financial [COL 3.17 unch] (still consolidating) and CTS Global [CTS 0.86 ▼1.15%] (more time to finalize and get approvals) started the request fest last week, followed by National Reinsurance [NRCP 0.64 ▼1.54%] (still reviewing and finalizing), LBC Express [LBC 16.10 unch] (still reviewing data), TKC Metals [T 0.51 ▼1.92%] (still finalizing financial statements), STI Education [STI 0.32 ▼1.54%] (skeleton administrative crews hit by dengue and COVID outbreaks), Benguet Corp [BC 4.05 ▼3.57%] (still writing management’s discussion section), and Haus Talk [HTI 0.83 ▼2.35%] (still finalization and consolidating). Then, yesterday, we saw applications filed by SOCResources [SOC 0.47 unch] (still finalizing), ATN Holdings [ATN 0.36 unch] (accounting department needs time), Cirtek [TECH 2.46 ▲0.41%] (still reviewing data), Vantage Equities [V 0.73 unch] (finalizing data and getting signatures), Manila Bulletin [MB 0.39 ▲4.00%] (still reviewing data and getting signatures), Alsons Consolidated [ACR 0.79 ▲1.28%] (still finalizing and getting approvals), Transpacific Broadband Group [T 0.51 ▼1.92%]BGI (accountant needs more time), Central Azucarera de Tarlac [CAT 9.50 unch] (still reviewing data), Steniel Manufacturing [STN suspended] (needs more time), AgriNurture [ANI 7.69 ▼0.26%] (still reviewing data), Greenergy [GREEN 1.63 ▼0.61%] (still reviewing data), and Manila Mining [MA 0.01 unch] (communication problems with Surigao del Norte). All of the companies committed to submitting proper financial reports on or before November 21.

MB: Delays happen because life is unpredictable and chaotic, and any accountant (or person married to an accountant) will tell you that preparation and consolidation of financial statements is something that is difficult to rush. You can’t just wander down into the harshly-lit, under-decorated accounting department and say things like “WORK HARDER!” There is only so much time you can make up with additional overtime hours or temp workers. So, on some level, I am understanding when things come up and conspire to make for a delay. As a default though, as an investor, I start by looking at a request for an extension as a failure of process. A failure to schedule the resources needed to do the things that you need to do, in the timeframe that you need to do them. Sometimes a delay is because there’s been a huge transaction (like an acquisition or sale) close to the reporting deadline, but that kind of event is usually pretty obvious and is something that we all know can’t be solved by “process” alone. That said, the vast majority of the “reasons” given to justify an extension here boil down to some tautological version of “we need more time to finish the reports because the reports aren’t finished yet.” Only STI seemed to provide a detailed outline of the circumstances that conspired to cause its delay, in such a way that could allow an investor to gain comfort that the management team seems to understand the problem well enough to prevent it from happening in the future.

[NOTES] Quick takes from around the market...

MREIT [MREIT 11.90 ▼0.50%] [link] MREIT declared a Q3/22 dividend of ₱0.2444, payable on December 15 to shareholders of record as of November 25. The dividend has an annualized yield of 8.22% based on the previous closing price, which is -0.97% smaller than Q3's pre-dividend annualized yield of 8.3%. Relative to MREIT's IPO price, the dividend increased MREIT's total stock and dividend return to -18.55%, up from its pre-dividend total return of -20.06%.

MB Quick Take: C-c-c-combo breaker! While it’s only a slight step back, the lower div breaks MREIT’s streak of dividend increases that started back in Q1 of this year. MREIT’s net income was down almost 7% q/q, and shareholders still aren’t getting the benefit of the dividend-increasing property-for-share swap that MREIT and Megaworld [MEG 2.12 ▲2.91%] negotiated in April; the transaction is on-hold, awaiting approval from the SEC.

Phoenix Petroleum [PNX 8.49 unch] [link] Q3 profit ▼1051% y/y (▼761% q/q) to a net loss of ₱0.95 billion. 9M profit ▼734% y/y to net loss of ₱1.1 billion. PNX said that its liquified natural gas trading business was the “bright spot” in its portfolio, increasing 11% q/q with strong demand in both Viet Nam and the Philippines. Otherwise, PNX said that the “exceedingly challenging macroeconomic backdrop” of volatile oil markets, inflation, peso weakness, higher interest rates, and lower demand, caused its domestic fuel volume to “sharply drop” (-44%) and its overseas trading desk to “take a breather” (-35%).

MB Quick Take: PNX is just a gasoline reseller, so it lives and dies by demand for gas and its ability to monetize access to that gas. Unfortunately for PNX, the price of gas increased dramatically during the year, and demand for that gas has dropped off a cliff. That’s a terrible combination for a business that relies on volume and site visits to keep revenues cycling and keep stations profitable. Sentiment seems to be that oil prices are headed for $100/barrel again soon, and that “upside” risk is growing, so it doesn’t look like this part of the equation will turn in PNX’s favor any time soon.

MB is written and distributed every trading day. The newsletter is 100% free and I never upsell you to some "iNnEr cIrClE" of paid-membership perks. Everyone gets the same! Join the barkada by signing up for the newsletter, or follow me on Twitter. You can also read my daily Morning Halo-halo content on Philstar.com in the Stock Commentary section, and in the Saturday edition of the Daily Manila Shimbun.

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The End game has begun. Stagflationary 1972-73 Price pump or Deflationary 2008 bust.? I am prepared for both ;)

Disclaimer :
Apologies beforehand for a lot of verbose because of the final newsletter. For quick read up i suggest reading "Tl;dr section" ( headings ) and for the reasons behind it are included in the detailed "Experiment section".

Intro:

“I felt a great disturbance in the force as if millions of voices slowly and wildly got together and then there was an uprising against the government and the financial institutions”

Sorry guys, I was supposed to send this the day before yesterday ( great movie ) but unfortunately I got caught up in a celebration we are having over here.
So it's the start of the weekend. Y’all know what that means. I'm not talking about having a party lol, that is for me. You guys have to decipher this long post so that you can protect yourself from the upcoming danger that I am seeing. In short you’re fucked if you don’t read this especially institutions and hedge funds. Just for this week please avoid strip clubs. This one's for you guys because you read my post. ( I like to think so )
Retail public especially retards i don’t have words for you guys. You guys can chill this weekend because all you do is sh9t on my post. Might as well sh9t on this too. I don’t care since all you’re obsessed with is Ryan Cohen and $BBBY. So when you’re finally over him after getting drunk this weekend then you can go ahead and read this post. Could be worth your time.

As for people asking me why I don't give my opinions regarding meme stocks. Well folks the reason is simple. We are still in a bear market according to my calculations. So it's written somewhere in the gospel of investing that bear markets are the opportunities to analyze value companies, not meme companies which are about to be purge in the upcoming mega crash as an offering to please the gods of stock market.
Yes you “You-tube” folks the crash hasn’t even started yet. We still have -53% to go from here till March 2023 as my base case. Don't even ask me about my worst case. For that just open the Dow Jones 1929-1932 chart.

Tl;dr and Td;du folks : ( Too long didn't read, Too dumb didn’t understand )
We have already discussed this : Buy 4 months/2 months/1 months puts i.e Dec 30/Oct 29/Sept 29 at the money with strike price near about "200 day moving average = 200dMA" in $SPY last week of august if it comes.
It already did one time on August 16 and i think the top is already in. So you’re gonna profit regardless.
Invalidation would be three white soldier candles above 200dMA of course in daily chart. For positions go scroll down. ( I will make you work for it at-least. xD )

We have a long way to go friends.

Now for those folks who want a detailed explanation about everything let’s dive in.
Respected Traders and Investors,

How are you guys doing? It’s been a long time hasn’t it. God I was gone for a while and had Ni-san use my Reddit account for a few days. First of all, I'm gonna apologize for the Shzio post by my brother Itachi. Man, it felt like it messed up my brains for a while there. It was so damn trippy. So I highly highly advise you guys not to go and read it a second time. Please, it's for your own health.
Regardless i love my brother analysis coz he thinks like no other normal people do in the world of trading/investing. So, I take full responsibility for my actions and if things don't go as planned out in the above charts ( i.e the mega crash doesn’t happen you know ) then you’re not gonna hear from us.
P.s. We promised you that we will do these posts only in bear markets. Even if the USA goes into depression for 10 to 15 years we will post in a week or two until we visit ath ( all time high ) once again. One may ask why not do this stuff in the bull market? Guys you have to understand we are not bull market specialists. For bull markets it's generally advised to follow moon boys on twitter, tik-tok, You-tube etc. They are more educated and well informed than us in that department with a huge audience behind them. ( They spend so much on marketing lol )

Recap : Predictions 2022 so far.
I don’t usually like to do this because my readers already know about this but it’s time to back-test how accurate we ( i.e. me and my brother ) have been this whole time especially to show random people who are new to reading these kinds of posts especially when it’s season finale.

We predicted the March 16 post Fomc rally.

https://preview.redd.it/6n7xv1xs52j91.png?width=1851&format=png&auto=webp&s=ef518b9218d0bc29d830fc61927009ece8a66438

We predicted the April top. Thought it was gonna last two to three days more but it lasted just one.

https://preview.redd.it/ictvxtex52j91.png?width=622&format=png&auto=webp&s=1905d15b9028016b853e12dd817097c285d2eac7

Then we predicted June Fomc bottom which we already mentioned in our first letter. Does “Dante cash deployment $SPX $3600-3700 at trend based 1 fib” ring a bell. ( But then later i said to just sell above 2% because Cpi 8.8% est and Atlanta Fed Gdp -2.1% est scared the sh9t out of me and i changed my strategy from "Riding to the top of the Bear market rally" to "Shorting at the top of bear market rally" )

https://preview.redd.it/brojy4p462j91.png?width=743&format=png&auto=webp&s=a96db2532fe7643a3b03e3f2293102e8c28a06e2

And now we finally did the same for August top at 15/16 i.e. 200dMA/ 50-61.8% fib retrace which is just a follow up to above June Fomc bottom. post.

https://preview.redd.it/da60ccei62j91.png?width=818&format=png&auto=webp&s=ce9e342a4a1f31b7ed9cd4931c8511bdd9368ae5

And then there were bond, commodity, Dxy calls that we are not even mentioning.
What this all means is that the stock markets have been performing as we had hoped for since February which is like 6-7 months ago. So i guess we are not a broken clock and actually do provide the exact days or should i say the time horizon.

Am I a member of secret society i.e. "Illuminati” or have contacts in "Pay pal mafia" ?
No guys. I am not a member of secret society nor do i have any contacts. My brother do though. I do want to manage the portfolio of wealthy clients like my brother someday but I'm too lazy. I just want to take bets and watch anime and Tv shows my entire life. I just finished West world and now i guess i will watch episode 1 of “House of dragons”. ( Why did that producer said bad things about Emilia. Hmm ) As for anime recommendation man its getting hard to find good ones. I'm just waiting for Chainsaw man now.

About my self.
Before all of this I was a Computer Science student whose only good skill was learning a hybrid application development platform called Flutter ( By Google ) but now I just write detailed and boring posts on Wall Street bets about anything that comes to my mind for you guys. My predictions come right because of you folks so thank you for taking trades and also I just basically copy pasted 2008 charts ( 32nd death week ) like I do with Git-hub while programming.

Now will I be wrong in the future?
Of course I will be. I’m no economist. I just make cases i.e stock market = 1972-73 or 2008 and just bet on them. Also a big hedge fund guy might find my post someday and take the opposite trade against me wrecking people who followed my advice.
Hence i always tell you guys “Do your own research“ “This is not financial advice” even though it will be right most of the time. You absolutely should not follow anybody w/o checking out at-least 10 other guys.

Why take my advice ?
So now that we have cleared some of the confusion which I couldn't in my Wsb guest talk appearance you might be thinking why we should even consider your advice in the top 10 folks we watch. You’re a nobody. Well folks in my defense i would say it's because I gradually improved myself. Earlier my posts were shitty but now they are getting better especially my T.A. And I'm also learning economics day by day. Do you know guys I didn't wanted to write this as final post coz I was actually busy working on other post like “Deciphering Stagflation 70's” and “Thermodynamics in Economics” as my farewell post. Yes it's true guys the US economy is one giant open system. That’s how Elon Musk and Jerome Powell do calculations about economics. xD
Well enough spoilers about the next season. I know you guys are getting bored. So lets now finally jump in what i wanted to actually talk about.

Experiment :
Deriving conclusions about Nasdaq, S&P500 and rest other asset classes using other asset classes on weekly and monthly charts. I know it sounds insane right now but you will see. So just trust me on this. (My grammar is so poor)

Tools :”
I mean the Technicals i will be using today includes :
-> Candle sticks
-> Elliot wave with Fibonacci
-> Stochastic Rsi
-> My favorite which never ever lies : Pvt(O)
-> At last my “Ketlner channels”

Procedure :

Step 1 : Forex Markets

Eur-usd

Eur-usd : Have you ever seen such a bearish chart in your life both on a weekly and monthly basis? I mean as much as I love European countries but I have to say your Eur-usd charts sucks equally much. Putin owns you guys this winter. Italy and Germany are already suffering so much with 10x bills gas + electricity if compared with 2021 so i can't even imagine about countries like Spain, Greece etc. Okay so I'm gonna stop myself now with the pessimism and dive into Technicals.

Weekly Time Frame Analysis : ( Left chart )

Eur-usd bull traders have to stop this deadly weekly close otherwise the whole world is f’ed.
Elliot wave C wants to go 1.618 i.e. 0.924.
Stochastic RSI are about to cross weekly and go down.
Pvt(O) if it crosses the blue line and heads down means game over.’
We aren’t even testing the Ketlner red upper band. That’s how bearish we are.

Monthly Time Frame Analysis : ( Right chart )

Eur-usd bull traders couldn't stop monthly support i.e 1.03. Rejected it, retested it from below and rejected it again. The double top at 1.24 was deadly too coz you know when we break the support at 1.03 you go down equally much. Hence those red vertical lines.
Elliot wave C wants to go 1.618 i.e. 0.81487 so is 0.834 vertical red line support.
Stochastic RSI is in deep water. You ain't coming out of there any time soon before weekly readjusts.
Pvt(O) wants to do nothing and stay flat for a while.
We are hanging on the Ketlner upper red band.

Result : I can confidently say with 1000% certainty that Eur-usd is going down. Thank you madam Lagarde. You’re doing such a fine job by selling German Bund and buying Italian bonds. Congratulations to you and your PEP tool (Lol, guys this woman is bat-sh9t crazy)

Gbp-usd

Gbp-usd : Well first Sir Mr Bailey. I have to say I'm a big fan of your honesty if you are reading this. I mean in today's world it's hard to find someone that honest in a government job. So guys we know inflation is double digit’s over here ( heading to 13% or was it 15% in coming months ) and in September the Bank of England is going with 50 bps. So we already know that Uk is gonna have more than 2Q of -ve Gdp. I hope you Uk folks survive considering you're gonna lose jobs, probably go into economic depression because recession is everybody’s base case even of Mr Bailey. So enough details let’s do analysis.

Weekly Time Frame Analysis : ( Left chart )

Gbp-usd is in a huge IHS pattern but that doesn’t mean it will go to the upside that easily. Currently the price is testing right shoulder at 1.19. If it breaks then the price will test the head 1.14 and if it doesn’t break and holds then the price will go to 1.42 to test the neckline. After that we shall see whether the IHS breaks or not. Also the volume is supporting the down move.
There is no Elliot wave here. But the key thing to note is that if 1.14 breaks then you’re heading to 0.87 levels. Reason being two vertical red lines should be equal.
Stochastic RSI has crossed weekly and is about to go down.
Pvt(O) if it crosses the blue line and heads down means game over. If it doesn’t break only then you have a chance of at-least going to the neckline.
The price action has occupied the whole Ketlner red band. Meaning we are in a bearish downtrend.

Monthly Time Frame Analysis : ( Right chart )

Just remember we are in the box lock of 1.14 to 1.42 range. The increasing volume is also supporting this downwards move. If i don't take any wicks into consideration then it looks like the price has broken 61.8% fib and would likely head downwards to 1 fib cause there is no support of candle closing. So watch out for monthly close here as well and an eye on higher high volume. Also don't forget those red vertical lines. 1.72 - 1.42 , 1.42 - 1.14, so 1.14 - XXX. Do the math.
12345 was completed in Oct 2007 ( Yah that old ) From then we are in the ABC corrective wave. Elliot wave C is still deciding what’s gonna happen with IHS. If it breaks down you’re looking at 0.95.
Stochastic RSI is in deep water. You ain't coming out of here any time soon.
Pvt(O) wants to do nothing and stay flat.
We are hanging on the Ketlner red upper band.

Result : I can confidently say Gbp-usd is going down. Mr Soros if you’re listening to this, let's break the “Bank of England” once again. Just for good old times sake.

Usd-Jpy

Usd-jpy : If i tell you anything about this forex pair I’m probably Bs’ing you. It’s true guys. Even Mr Kuruda the governor of Boj doesn’t know where the Usd-jpy is gonna go. But what we can speculate is if the dollar becomes so much stronger due to the weakness in the Eur-usd equation then Dxy is gonna pump past 110 and the dollar becomes stronger. Got it. So I could easily play this approach into my thesis by telling you yes this pair is just gonna go up. But I will not do that. Instead I'm gonna play a devil’s advocate here saying Usd-jpy will go down. So let’s analyze things which are a total waste of your and my time because I'm gonna reverse this forex you will see how.

Weekly Time Frame Analysis : ( Left chart )

Traders watch the 136. It’s a critical resistance. A clean break of it would mean 148 otherwise we go 125.
Elliott wave 12345 is complete at 136 and now we go for the ABC corrective wave. A will hit you at 116 and the rest is just a made up wave.
Stochastic RSI is on bottom and will go up.
Pvt(O) too looks like it could go up.
Here in this Ketlner channel we are hanging on a lower green band. That’s how bullish we are but I have chosen to take the bear case.

Monthly Time Frame Analysis : ( Right chart )

Traders watch the monthly close. If it closes above 136 we go to 148 otherwise down.
Elliott wave 12345 is complete at 136 wave. Entire ABC is made up because it all depends on the monthly close.
Stochastic RSI is on top flying and looks overbought but who can argue with their unlimited bond buying which in turn has caused the parabolic move.
Pvt(O) too looks like it could touch the blue line. If it crosses we fall, if not we go up.
Here in this Ketlner channel we are on an upper green band. That’s how extremely bullish we are but I have chosen to take the bear case.

So since I took the bear case it doesn't look like any bearish to me. Don't you agree? So our devil in devil’s advocate looks weak. So to fit our thesis lets reverse this. This is kinda like physics or Math kind of stuff where we proof things by assuming inverse.

Result : I cannot confidently say but I will say Jpy-usd is going up to 148 at my favorite dot com times where Dxy went 120. Hence i’m selling my Yen trust with ticker $FXY.

Step 2 : DXY. A basket of forex currencies.

You must be wondering, I'm gonna introduce another colorful RGB crayon drawing chart on both weekly and monthly. Sorry to disappoint you folks but I'm not doing that. Instead let’s use our brains.
We know that US dollar Index i.e. Dxy is used to measure the value of the dollar a/g basket of 6 currencies. The Euro, Swiss Franc, Japanese Yen, Canadian Dollar, British pound and Swedish krona. Now I'm not gonna explain you here why dollar is global reserve currency or dollar has more liquidity so let’s just assume that.

So what happens now is when Eur-usd becomes weaker, investors usually go risk off and buy the safest asset in the world i.e Dollar. Hence the Dxy goes stronger which suggests the dollar is getting stronger coz european buddies will exchange for dollars coz its very liquid and due to interest rate differentials. ( Remember Gbp-usd is an exception to interest rate differential coz what's happening over there is interest rates will go up but their currency is still losing its strength )

We have discussed a thesis in past letters already and came to a conclusion and I quote.
“Eur-usd is a mirror image of the Dxy chart.” Remember this for your lifetime. Especially you Gen-z.

I wasn’t gonna post a chart but then I realized I should for new folks who are lazy to read past posts. Eur-usd breaks parity and goes 0.80 levels Dxy will be 120 for sure. In monthly Dxy is super bullish. And on a weekly basis it's trying to close above 107 i believe. Hence your Voldemort asset class dropped -8% i guess. Right ?

Mirror chart : DXY vs Eur-usd

Result : I can confidently say Dollar or DXY is getting stronger in comparison to Euro, Gbp and Jpy. Hence DXY to 120 is back on the table according to the “20yrs of wyckoff accumulation” pattern. If you cleanly break 110-112 i must say equities especially the Spx is gonna visit to my $3200 level.
Now some Cnbc or Bloomberg guys who stole my research and didn’t gave me credit 2-3 months ago used to come on tv and say things like “Oh in 2018 Spx visited 200wMA so it makes sense that this cycle which is even more tightening compared to last makes sense to visit this range.”
So folks now the Spx has shifted its 200wMA/50mMA = $3500-$3600. But these clowns oops economists don't know that we should take a look at the monthly chart. Once you open that. Your pants are about to drop coz in the last tightening we visited not 200wMA but 100 monthly moving average i.e 100mMA. Yeah let’s go visit makachev vs oliviera in oct 23rd ufc 280. So if we cross paths over there I will tell you we are going to Spx $2873 i.e. somewhere around $2800-2900 which my close friend Dr Burry suggested too. Hence he sold + he is shorting coz he has relieved every moment in 2008. So he knows what’s coming next. You guys don’t.

Step 3 :Eur-usd Implied Fed funds 100-CME:GEZ2023 ( Not gonna use Elliot wave + Fib trend starting here now )

This is like gonna be super high level stuff even far above my pay grade. Only Zoltan can explain this using repo markets but since he is busy I will try to explain it in a funny way. So if you might have watched Cnbc this past week two economists were arguing about how Fed funds have priced in 4% already but one might be saying no it has only priced in 3.4-3.5%. So who is right?

If you watch “Everything money” by my suggestion then Mo came to the conclusion that the reason he is saying 4% is because the Fed is doing QT + rate hikes which Mo still does not believe.

So who is right and what is the right explanation for 4% ?
Imo they both are right but the explanation is wrong. The reason one should present about the 4% Fed funds argument is that in Eur-usd implied Fed funds went to 4%. Hence the market has priced 4% in the euro dollar banking system. But if you take only the dollar banking system in Usa then we look at yields of 2 yr and 10 yr which are hinting that Fed funds 3.4-3.5% is already priced in by the markets.

Eur-usd implied Fed funds.

Monthly and weekly time frame analysis :

Both look strong on a monthly and weekly basis. If monthly candle closes above resistance i.e. 3.50 this month then we are looking past 4% Eur-usd implied fed funds
Stochastic Rsi on weekly and crossed and is heading up while on monthly they are about to cross and hover above for a while.
Pvt(O) on weekly looks promising as compared to monthly.
Both of them don’t wanna lose their lower green Ketlner band.

Result : I can confidently say that we are going up here technically. So J. Powell, could you please back me up on this. Zoltan agrees with me. Snyder doesn’t.
( Just remember implied fed funds can go up due to Eur-usd weakness. So its kinda like indirect interest rate hike for markets. Add QT on top of that. Hence Fed is dovish in Fomc minutes for rate hikes )

Step 4 : HYG & LQD : The corporate bonds

HYG

Hyg : This product is designed to replicate a benchmark which provides a broad representation of the U.S. dollar-denominated high yield liquid corporate bond market. The high yield bond space has been cracked wide open by ETFs, as these products have offered numerous ways for investors to take advantage of this space. High yields can be a great addition to a yield-starved portfolio, as they can offer yields into the double digits for those willing to take on the risks that come along with it. The high returns come from riskier bond choices who have to pay out higher ratios to compensate investors for high risks. This means that the holdings of these ETFs will have higher chances of defaults, and could potentially leave investors out to dry. But those who have done their homework on the holdings of a particular “junk” bond fund have the ability to generate strong returns from these powerful products. HYG keeps most of its assets inside of the U.S., though it does offer a slice of international exposure as well. The ETF is dominated by corporate bonds, the majority of which have investment grades between B and BB. This product will make a great income addition to any investor who is fully aware of the risks a high yield bond product carries.

Weekly time frame analysis :

Weekly is gonna print bearish engulfing candle. Also there is a volume divergence. Price going up but volume going down which leads to fall. Trend line break candles will be the nail on the coffin.
Stochastic Rsi on weekly crossed and now are heading down.
Pvt(O) on weekly is also done after releasing supply and now will head down to accumulation..
Ketlner middle line changing band rejected the price action suggesting bearish continuation.

Monthly time frame analysis :

Monthly rejected its previous to previous top of the candle and is gonna print another st. down red monthly. Again price ascending volume declining.
But interestingly stochastic Rsi on monthly going up..
Pvt(O) on monthly also about to cross its blue line later sometimes.
As for Ketlner, well it's pretty much occupying the entire red lower band.

LQD : I leave it up to you guys. Cmon at least do one.

Result : I cannot confidently say that we are going down on a monthly time frame ( i need to see more data ) but yah sure on weekly we are going down because of that deadly candle that folks have been talking about.

Step 5 : IEI/HYG : Government bond price / Corporate bond price.

IEI/HYG : Double check below thing.

IEI/HYG : If it goes up then credit spreads are widening. ( Bad thing i.e risk off )
IEI/HYG : If it goes down then credit spreads are tightening. ( Good thing i.e. risk on )

Weekly time frame analysis :

Weekly is about to print a bullish engulfing candle. Also volume isn’t supporting downwards move i.e. price is going down but volume is going down as well.
Stochastic Rsi on weekly crossed and now are heading up.
Can't comment about Pvt(O) weekly. Mixed signals
Ketlner middle line changing band supported the price action and is green. Meaning bullish continuation

Monthly time frame analysis :

No complete data on monthly that we can make assumptions.
But stochastic Rsi crossed on monthly and suggested going down.
Pvt(O) flat.
As for Ketlner, well we had rejection from an extremely bullish green band i.e. we haven't gotten permission for capitulation but we got support from middle Ketlner to make the price go up again.

Result : I cannot confidently say that we are going up on a monthly time frame ( i need to see more data ) but yah sure on weekly we are going up.

Step 6 : ( Super scary ) : Velocity of m2 or m1 money supply i.e v = us gdp / m1 or m2.

Velocity of M2

This is a very debatable topic. Only the pros have the right to argue about this stuff and no one else. Peter lynch once told me during my time travel visit that people worry that the velocity of money supply is going up way too fast then we are gonna have depression and if the velocity of money supply goes down then too we are gonna have depression. So which one is it?

Anyways Q3 2020 : 1.149 was the highest reading. Currently we are trying to break it. Q2 2022 : 1.147

"The velocity of money is the frequency at which one unit of currency is used to purchase domestically- produced goods and services within a given time period. In other words, it is the number of times one dollar is spent to buy goods and services per unit of time. If the velocity of money is increasing, then more transactions are occurring between individuals in an economy. This is called an expanding economy." ~ By Fred website.

So go out there and ask your banking friends and tell them please explain the concept of money supply in today's terms. Not an old term. So I too went to my brother for advice. He told me “ F off “

Result : “F off”

Step 7 : Gold

We are not gonna do weekly and monthly time frame analysis on this. Some of you guys may be like “Dude, I'm an old man with agricultural land. I wanna own gold like my ancestors from 18th century coz i believe in stagflation, parabolic move, end of the world, negative debasement hedge blah blah” So i need charts.

Old man's Gold :
Old man you need to chill. We are gonna use our brain like Peter Schiff. So we know, gold doesn't love that his nemesis dollar is going up. Now if you can tell me how high Dxy will go up then i can tell you that the top of Dxy will be the bottom of Gold. Also gold doesn’t love financial crisis or bank runs. In my world gold is a phoenix who rises from ashes. Meaning if we plunge into the abyss then gold is gonna drag us out of there first. Then indices move and other asset classes.

Digital Gold :
As for young folks, you love the King of Voldemort asset class don’t you? So go buy it at amazon bottom i.e. $4-5k or my favorite Richard heart level -83% i.e 10,690. Or if you really don't have the patience like probably 99% of the entire world population you buy some % of this commodity for whatever reasons these guys are selling you at $20k. I shall rest my case now.

Result : Dollar i.e. Dxy up = Gold down and vice versa.

Step 8 : TLT/JNK : It’s kinda like IEI/HYG

Can you guys do this please?
Hint : Bullish divergence on weekly and monthly. Meaning TLT ( 20yr treasury bond etf by black rock ) buying over Junk bonds i.e. JNK

Step 9 : US Oil.

Let's go Brandon and the government. Just how much are you gonna manipulate the best inflation hedge alive. You guys have already killed my Gold. Yes you J.P. Morgan traders, I hate you. May your bank dies in upcoming crash and have Panic of 2023 just like Knickbocker crisis in 1907. Only then I shall have my vengeance a/g those rumors you circulated back in the days.
So guys you probably would know this that our Usa Government try to manipulate oil market just to please people and ask for votes. These are some of their stupid tactics.

Releasing SPR ( i.e. Strategic petroleum reserve ) in the market.
Pressurizing Saudis to find oil. ( Btw Saudi Armaco alone made profits greater than all Usa mega cap tech combined )
Windfall taxes on Oil companies.
Distributing E.V. credits to people. But even E.V. companies are smart. They instead increase their price. Ford I mean what the f you guys are doing.

This is the most manipulated market I have ever seen in my 100 yr+ of lifetime. So traders if your conclusion from my above observation was that we should short Oil lemme tell you something in double quotes.
“Be afraid of Putin’s Winter Oil boogeyman”. "Contango is a dangerous thing that futures creates"

You don’t short Oil in winter. Period. Heck you shouldn’t even trade Oil. Only the expert can do this because it's called “Widow Maker” i.e. the losses in this commodity trading could be catastrophic planetary devastation like.

Tip : Btw currently oil is in downwards wedge and it could break to upside and we go up in winter but Oil too like gold doesn't love Dxy going up. So kinda mixed signals i guess. Let's see who shall prevail bulls or bears of oil.

Result : Dollar i.e. Dxy up = Oil down and vice versa but Winter is coming/ Contango = Maybe Oil up.

Step 10 : Powell curve i.e.10 yr - 3 month, 2 yr - 3 month ( Pvt(o) and Elliot wave doesn't work here )

Do you guys remember the talk we had with Powell earlier this year when he was trying to explain us that the inversion of the 10 yr - 2 yr curve doesn't mean anything and unless the near term curve inverts it's all okay. Well folks Powell near time curves are close to getting inverted. Therefore you’re seeing these Fed officials talk dovish recently. Coz if they invert Fed will lose their remaining 0.0000001% credibility. So let’s analyze them on a weekly time frame because on a monthly time frame they look super super bearish to me and there is no chance that the curve won’t invert at some point later on.

J Powell/ Fed Curves : Us10y-Us03m , Us02y-Us03m

Weekly time frame analysis :

The current weekly candle in both curves are going to close lower than previous week which could suggest further downside risk.
Stochastic Rsi on 10yr-3m looks flat dead whereas on 2yr-3m it looks like it is rising.
MacD in both of them is showing us that the downwards declining move is losing its strength.
As for Ketlner, well in both of them they are staying in the lower red band suggesting they are still in a bearish trend.

Larry Summers former Fed chairman came recently to Bloomberg saying that the Fed has shown in latest minutes that they don’t even know what they are doing. Hence they Bs’ing us in their statement. I mean guys just read these hawkish and dovish points yourself. Also do check out the hidden statements in minutes which are pieces of advice for billionaires about liquidity and t-bills. Don’t forget my warning about bank runs. They are coming. My bet is Well’s Fargo Oct 2022/23 = Lehman brothers Oct 2008 or you could also go with lowest read by a bank in Fed stress test.

Hawkish vs Dovish vs Billionaire's ( Highlighted in blue ) Fed minutes.

As for individual bonds and overall yield curve :

Bonds :

Well 10 yr yields looks so good on both weekly and monthly time frame. So we go up in yields.
2 yr yields look so good on weekly and waiting for monthly close making it bullish. Meaning on September Fed is gonna be dead. ( Yields will rise meaning bond prices go down with stocks )

Note : Once again i'm telling yields is going up due to Eur-usd down i.e. Dxy up and markets front running 95B/m QT. We are quite unsure about rate hikes coz its nearly 50-50 b/w 50 and 75 bps. It will all depend on Cpi and Jobs data in September.

Institutions and Hf’s are also buying Chinese bonds like crazy or maybe Chinese themselves because of fear of recession and growth slowdown i.e. flight to safety trade. They have deflationary recession but the thing is they have balance sheet recession. So their government is creating a liquidity trap by cutting rates. But don't forget they can always do exuberance amount of liquidity coz they have very less inflation. In Usa you're getting rekt in both stocks and bonds.

Yield curve :

As for the entire yield curve here look at these beauties that Powell has created in these charts.

Credits : Eurodollar University. By Jeff Snyder

Note : Yield should be higher if the time horizon is higher. Meaning shorter end like 2 yr to 5 yr should yield less than 10 yr and 20 yr normally due to unknown risks associated in far future. But look here in these charts. A 52 w t-bill is yielding more than 20 yr and 10 yr bonds. That’s insane. It tells us there is a danger in next 1-2yrs as compared to far in future. The curve has gone banana's b/w 26 w t-bill to 10 yr bond. After 10 yr to 20 yr curve looks so good and why won't it. Because after the most horrible decade in entire history of Usa will come a little less horrible decade. Haha.

Result : I can confidently say yields are going up in respective bonds. But will basic yield curve i.e us10y-us02y will steepen or invert more is out of my pay grade.

Step 11 : VIX. It looks so ready to pop anytime.

I mean what do i even say here. This whole year traders are buying Vix calls in 20 and shorting equities and as the Vix goes 30 they sell their calls and buy puts. Meanwhile longing their equities position.
So smart Vix traders, it's time to integrate the mega crash in your calculations. Meaning do the first phase of second part but leave tf out of second phase of second part i.e. don't buy puts on Vix and don't try to long equity in 30 coz this time folks are going to promised Vix 40+.

Result : Vix is going up. Reason : It's mid terms + Putin x Jinpig x Biden at G8 = Volatility in Sept - Nov.

Conclusion :

Financial derivation = Take those steps into consideration that you are confident in your analysis.

So I chose my Eur-usd pokemon.
Reason : I am quite confident in my analysis and Lagarde. Plus Fed minutes made a commentary about this that dollar is looking so strong as comparison to Euro. Maybe this too played a part in their recent dovish commentary.

Assuming : Eur usd is going down coz Europe is f’ed. ( We were most confident about this in all of our steps. Also my birdie told me 0.93 eur-usd traders have risen from their grave in options market )

Above assumption ( proving in step 1 t.a. ) will mean :

Dxy go up due to the mirror chart theory. ( 0.80-0.90 levels in eur-usd = 120 move in Dxy )

So now equities, commodities, metals and rest other asset class will fall down.

But what about bonds?

Well when the dollar strengthens then the countries who have dollar denominated debts have to sell their bonds and buy new bonds to refinance. Something like that. I think i butchered it. But yah it happens. Other reason being when dollar strengthens due to ext factors then its kinda like a rate hike. So since bonds don't like rate hike they sell off. Now add QT on top of it i.e 95B/m + Us treasury will issue more long term bonds and cut treasury bill issuance. So 10yr to 20yr bond yields will go up.
So now remains the case for 2yr bonds. The Fed will hike rates but it's kinda hinting that they won't go aggressive now coz they don't wanna overshoot and bring depression. Hence the 2yr bond will not go up more than the back end i.e. 10yr bond. Meaning us10y-us02y will move from inversion territory to steepening territory.
T-bills is getting bought more instead of rrp. Hence t-bills are trading below rrp. Meaning billionaires or banks fear about incoming liquidity crisis or collateral shortage. So t-bills it is or cashola. Or you could go to a money market fund and park your money there coz banks don't give you anything. Let's cause bank run together next year.

Also vix will pop up in this scenario due to asset classes being sold off

The velocity of m2 is gonna go up suggesting economy expands. Nope. Imo its suggesting dollar milkshake theory coz m2 is going down. Less dollars will be in circulation but exchanges will remain same. ( Long shot. I really don't know. Just guessing )

Final Result :

Every step we proved above using technical analysis on weekly and monthly time frame is being backed by my financial derivation except one thing. Will us10y-us02y curve invert more or steepen.? Coz steepening is bad for dollar strength whereas more inversion is good for dollar strength i.e. Dxy.
P.s. I think i'm so confused. Damn these bonds are tough to read.

Note : I forgot Dr copper. Lol. Why is it going up when Gold and other metals is going down?
*** Illuminati said : "Coz Dxy move up or bond yields move up is not because of rate hikes. They all are priced in. It's because of pseudo rate hikes on the Global market that is causing dollar to strengthen. This is due to QT + Eur-usd , Gbp-usd going down. Throw Japanese yen in there too but its chart is going up coz its Usd-jpy pair not Jpy-usd. Just like i said before too.

Farewell :
Thank you guys for your patience in reading an 8yr old post with naruto references w/o even mentioning Naruto anywhere coz Itachi stole the show. xD I am so tired guys coz i was busy writing stuff for you guys whatever was coming to my mind and leaving no mistake in my final calculations.
Take care guys. I hope one of you becomes a billionaire in this Wsb group and then pump meme stock for future generations. So suck the life out of me in the comments section. I will reply to every single one of your queries one last time.
( Now playing David Guetta : Just one last time )

Again like i always say. Don't forget your friends and family. Call them once every week. Be humble, stay safe and eat healthy.

With lots of love
Regards
Uchiha

x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x
THE END

Sayonara...!!!

Just hear those sleight bells jingle, Martians. 🚀🚀🚀
Our pup is now experiencing his second holiday season! ❄️
You can count on The Daily Dogelon to bring you festive joy and glee. 📰

Dash away!

🗳️ For starters, here's the easiest poll you'll ever vote in:

Oh boy, I wonder how this plays out
Source: https://twitter.com/Dogelon_dev/status/1602312925754101760

A bit of meta humor on behalf of our friendly neighbor Indie Dogelon Devs? 🤔
Surely they knew the result of this poll before they even posted it! 🏆
Or are they privy to data that might suggest a more contentious outcome? 👀
I mean, dev updates and lore entries are great and all, but free stuff..! 🙌
You know what, there's only one way to find out. Excuse me while I submit my vote. 🏃‍♀️

🌱 A natural evolution!

Voila!
Source: https://twitter.com/DogelonWarriors/status/1601290491458306048

No matter where you go, there you are... And here is the Weekly Dogelon Digest! ✨
Arriving in a new and improved format, you can now look for it on the Warriors Twitter. 🐦
We had a great run hosting the first 60+ entries of the Digest at Medium... 🙋‍♂️
But here we have the opportunity to reach more Martians via Twitter threads. 🧵
Our weekly content round-up is now more accessible and intuitive than ever. Enjoy! 🥂

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We are one and all within...

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A spark of hope.

Would you dare drink it now?

Time's on our side!

Actual footage of progress (Colorized)

We won't be missing each other much longer.

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'Tis the season to be jolly 🔔

Rejoice, Martians. 🚀🚀🚀
We're here to bring you an issue for the road. 🙋‍♂️
Step in the weekend with this here Daily Dogelon. 📰

Easy breezy.

🍽️ Any way you want it:

What will it be?
Source: https://twitter.com/Dogelon_dev/status/1601007945470210048

Yeah, they're not kidding. They got lore for days... years even! 📚
The Dogelon Indie Devs have outdone themselves, thanks to the literary potency of our hero. 🏋️
We're talking millennia worth of relationships, backstories, technical advancements... 🤯
A myriad of info prompting immersion in the world of Dogelon Spaceships are hot of the presses. ☄️
Now all you have to do is let our Devs know just how you'd like to experience them! 🗳️

🥂 We're glad you asked!

It's self-evident, really.
Source: https://coinjournal.net/news/dogelon-mars-whats-up-with-the-meme-coin-now-attracting-a-huge-following/

We appreciate the profile, CoinJournal! So nice of you to host us. 🙏
The headlining question is a tad outdated by now, but we get it. Gotta get clicks. 🖱️
And that's just what we intend to bring to you, isn't that right Martians? 👨‍🚀
Give these good journalists a hearty Martian welcome by pumping their article's traffic. 🌡️
As for our success story, we still like our credentials as underdogs. 🐕

👇 Now, let's take this puppy to the stars:

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Art connects us in...

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Uhh... Sorry for your loss?

Hit me, Doc

Chaaarrrge!

Come for the Mars, stay for the gun show.

We have made contact.

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Relax. The best is yet to come. 💫

Forget about superstitions, Martians. 🚀🚀🚀🚀
This 13th day of December only brings good tidings! ❤️
Get in position. The Daily Dogelon is being deployed right now. 📰

You get it all.

👑 A momentous occasion:

On the trail of the past.
Source: https://twitter.com/DogelonMars/status/1602534595676835841

Can you tell, Martians? Dogelon has been building up to something... 🥁
And today, apparently, marks the birthday of The Rufus Bringer! 🥳
Or the inception of a cult devoted to Rufus, at the very least? 🤔
We're not quite sure, but we are enthralled like every time we get a new comic! 🙌
Consider our calendars mark, our canine hero. Whatever you set in motion today, we're here for it. 👨‍🚀

🦸 And then some.

These guys are taking it pretty well!
Source: https://twitter.com/DogelonWarriors/status/1602405565946273792

Yo dog, we heard you like comics... So we got you a double feature today! 🥂
This intuitive and evocative medium of sequential art naturally suits Dogelon. 🐕
He's an adventurer, an explorer, a swashbuckling buccaneer! And so much more... 🧗
But right now, he's in a very uncertain predicament. Will contemporary Earth be hospitable? 👀
These first people he meets must be Rick and Morty fans, they're not even surprised by the portal. 🙋‍♂️

👇 Now, let's take this puppy to the stars:

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We are one and all within...

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Batter up!

You'll be glad you did.

What dimension are YOU from??

No way Doc!

Is that what he is?

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Flakes of whimsy are floating ❄️

Almost there, Martians. 🚀🚀🚀
With another Thursday under our belt, we might as well call it a week. 🙌
Don't worry, we're not trying to slack off! The Daily Dogelon is back as usual. 📰

Happy days.

👨‍🚀 You can't stop the Martians:

Off he goes!
Source: https://www.reddit.com/dogelon/comments/zfjv5d/dogelon_game_teaser_update_hey_yall_just_wanted/

Well this was an unexpected drop, but a very welcome one! 🎁
Redditor Martian u/VirginianVillager revealed a first look at a brand new Dogelon game! 🎉
Can't ever get enough of those, now can we? Just look at $ELON go. 🐕
To be fair, you can't see it in action here, but follow the link and behold. 👁️
It sounds like the game still has a ways to go, so visit the post and show some love! ❤️

🤝 Partnering our way to a better tomorrow...

Cheers to that!
Source: https://twitter.com/mfoundation/status/1600562322342543361

Dogelon is Methuselah, Methuselah is Dogelon. Simple as that. 🥂
Of course, both Dogelon and Methuselah can be many different things on their own... 🍃
But that doesn't change the fact that our entities are umbilically tethered. 🧬
In short, a W for Methuselah is a W for $ELON, and vice-versa. 🏆
A W for either of us, and it's a W for human kind. A warm welcome to the Center for Contemp-Sci! 🙋‍♂️

👇 Now, let's take this puppy to the stars:

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Friends and even foes can belong in...

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$ELON never ends

Ascend with us.

He already has you at checkmate.

A galaxy of Warriors!

\"Which AI hurt you?\"

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You've got a date with destiny. ✨

Iq option trader 2020 - zeweb.timmatch.ru

Las Relaciones Públicas y el Marketing, ¿convergencia o divergencia?

¿Cuáles son los mejores indicadores técnicos de Forex para principiantes?

¿Cómo utilizar las medias móviles en el mercado Forex?

RBI Alert List : Using these apps and websites will land you in legal trouble. This list includes popular apps like Octa Fx, Olymp Trade, Binono etc.

Estrategia de salida de GME: esto es lo que yo (NO NOSOTROS) voy a hacer usando los indicadores MACD y STOCH RSI y asegurarme de no vender demasiado pronto, explicado de una manera amigable para principiantes.

PARTE I: ¿DÓNDE CONSEGUIR GRÁFICAS TÉCNICAS?

PARTE II: ¿QUÉ ES MACD?

PARTE III: ¿QUÉ ES EL STOCHASTIC RSI?

PARTE IV: ¿QUÉ HAGO CON ESTA INFORMACIÓN Y CÓMO ME AYUDA A SABER CUÁNDO VENDER GME?

Hacia un Mexico mejor

10 Link-building lessons from building 300+ backlinks in 1 year

#1. Link-building works differently in every niche

#2. Offer something for the backlink

#3. Your competitors don’t really have thousands of backlinks

#4. Learn to evaluate backlinks

#5. Really nail down your prospecting ops

#6. Be creative with your outreach templates

#7. Re-use your prospect lists

#8. Take advantage of inbound outreach emails

#9. When something doesn’t work, dig deep

#10. It’s all a numbers game

10 Link-building lessons from building 300+ backlinks

#1. Link-building works differently in every niche

#2. Offer something for the backlink

#3. Your competitors don’t really have thousands of backlinks

#4. Learn to evaluate backlinks

#5. Really nail down your prospecting ops

#6. Be creative with your outreach templates

#7. Re-use your prospect lists

#8. Take advantage of inbound outreach emails

#9. When something doesn’t work, dig deep

#10. It’s all a numbers game

10 Link-building lessons from building 300+ backlinks

#1. Link-building works differently in every niche

#2. Offer something for the backlink

#3. Your competitors don’t really have thousands of backlinks

#4. Learn to evaluate backlinks

#5. Really nail down your prospecting ops

#6. Be creative with your outreach templates

#7. Re-use your prospect lists

#8. Take advantage of inbound outreach emails

#9. When something doesn’t work, dig deep

#10. It’s all a numbers game

Thanks for reading!

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