Act Forex - Crunchbase Company Profile & Funding

Chance me for UPenn Wharton (ED)

Hey, Redditors, I’m applying to Wharton through Quest Bridge and I wanted to know your input on my chances to get in!! My EC’s are really weak, but I go to a super small rural high school. Thanks!
Demographics: Male, Hispanic American (Mexican), First Gen, Income <30k
Intended Major(s): Finance
ACT/SAT/SAT II: ACT 35, SAT Math 2 770
UW/W GPA and Rank: UW 3.85/W 4.5
Coursework: My school doesn’t offer any AP’s but rather they offer dual enrollment. Self-studied AP Spanish (5) AP Stats (5)
Senior Course load: Calc 1, Calc 2, Biology 140, Chemistry 140, English 120, American Government 120
Awards/Distinctions: Quest Bridge National Match Finalist, Kentucky Governors Scholar, All-District Team (soccer), All-A Region Team (Soccer), All-State Academic Team (Soccer), Commonwealth Honors Scholar
Extracurriculars:
-Op’s Suds and Duds: I have a laundry drop off service that works inside of the Laundromat my parents own. Also, I work with my four local factories to do laundry for about 200 employees.
-Op’s Resell: I resell hype items, and I resell and rent bot keys. I’m a mod in a cook group and I try to provide information on upcoming releases.
-Varsity Soccer Captain (11th and 12th)
-Varsity Basketball (9th,10th)
-NHS President at my High School. I organize our can food drives, and I work with Op’s city food bank.
-Student Chairman: Finance department of my school.
-Hispanic Community Association of OP’s town. I raised 1000 dollars to provide school supplies for
the children of Hispanic members of my community.
-Team IHD: I worked with the technical staff at my high school to create programs that made it easy for older teachers to learn how to integrate new technology into their teaching.
-Operation Excel. I head the ACT tutoring club at my school, and I tutor about 10 underclassmen. (Cute name for it 😊)
Employment/Internship
-Family Responsibilities. I’ve work approximately 40 hours a week in my mother’s store, restaurant, and laundromat for the past 5 years.
-Mayor Internship. I interned with my city’s mayor for approximately 4 weeks during my freshman summer. I mainly organized city council meetings and I attended council meetings.
-Insurance Agent Internship. I interned with an insurance agency during my sophomore summer for approximately 5 weeks.
-Stock Market/Forex. I trade on the Stock Market and I trade forex. (9th-12th)
Essays/LORs/Other:
LOR finance Teacher 9/10
Schools: Penn Wharton (ED)
I think the only thing I got going for me right now is the fact that I’m a URM with a high-test score. I’m hoping for the best, and give me your honest opinions!!
submitted by dantethunder32 to chanceme [link] [comments]

Forex Trading Strategies Reddit: What you need to know to start Forex trading.

Forex Trading Strategies Reddit: What you need to know to start Forex trading.

FOREX Strategies

What are FOREX Strategies?
https://preview.redd.it/ihmphstzguv51.jpg?width=960&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=81f6b73c367d8695605514f8d32aaf3e2aeabc6e
You may have noticed that most of people confuse the terminology and refer to FOREX Strategies in the wrong way. There are methodologies, systems, strategies, and techniques. The most effective methodology is Price Language (Trend Tracking). Combined with a correct reading of mass psychology presented by the charts.
We know that in the Stock Markets there are thousands of strategies. FOREX, like the rest of the markets, presents you with the opportunity to apply similar strategies to win consistently. Taking advantage of repetitive psychological patterns.
First, the Price Language methodology has created great fortunes in FOREX, and the next fortune may be yours. But this methodology must be implemented within a framework of advanced concepts of Markets. Without forgetting the basics. And working hard day by day.
Second, a strategy is a set of parameters and techniques that together give you the advantage to act in any situation. Thus for example in war, generals have attack strategies and counterattack strategies.
FOREX strategies alike are entry strategies and exit strategies. All beginners should know these FOREX strategies for beginners. That way you will get a general idea of ​​the game and understand that trading is a war against the Market and its Specialists. Only applying FOREX strategies revealed by the same Specialists and using their own techniques,
... you can survive in this war.
Do not fall into the trap of the many "systems" and "methods" that are offered on the internet about operating in the FOREX Market. They just don't work in the long run. They are strategies based on indicators for the most part. Using rigid parameters. That if they can work and give profitability during a certain period of time, they will always reach a breaking point when the market changes its dynamics.
Instead, take advantage of your precious time and learn the Language of Price or Price Action.
The Language methodology will allow you to adapt to each new phase of the Market. If you combine this knowledge with the appropriate psychological concepts, you can live comfortably from speculation in FOREX.

Forex Trading Strategies Reddit - Basic FOREX Strategies

You have two basic FOREX strategies, one entry, and one exit. Both follow a general strategy that helps you capitalize on the collective behaviors of the Market. That is, of the total of participating speculators.
This behavior causes the formation of cycles that repeat over and over again. Driven by the basic emotions (uncertainty, greed, and panic) of the speculators involved that can be taken advantage of with the aforementioned FOREX strategies. Specialists identify these emotions in the order flow and capitalize on these events every hour, every day, and every month.
Basic FOREX Strategies - The Price Cycle
These repetitive cycles consist of 4 phases:
  1. Accumulation
  2. Upward trend
  3. Distribution
  4. Downward trend
https://preview.redd.it/6dvk2w0pduv51.png?width=300&format=png&auto=webp&s=a3ab65ca4eab6d20174b3327b862d8b59dcc13b7
The two trends can be easily identified by their notorious breakdown. And the two areas of uncertainty (accumulation and distribution), due to their notorious range trajectories.
This general behavior determines the core of our FOREX strategies.
You buy when the price of a pair has broken and has come out of one of its congestion formations (accumulation or distribution). You implement one of the Forex strategies, in this case, the entry one.
The multi-time technique will help you find the point of least risk when entering your initial buy or sell order. In the same way and using the same strategy but this time to close your position, the multiple timing technique will also show you how to close your operation obtaining the highest possible profit.
The most consistent way to extract profits in the market is by trading the start of trends within a cycle . Once confirmed by their respective breaks from the areas of uncertainty. This is the mother of all FOREX strategies . And in a market that operates 24 hours, we have more frequent cycles and therefore more opportunities.

Forex Trading Strategies Reddit - Advanced Forex Strategies

There are many advanced FOREX strategies that are generally used by professional speculators working for large financial firms.
Among these firms are banks, Investment Fund managers and Hedge Fund managers. The latter is an investment modality similar to Investment Funds, with the difference that Hedge Funds use more complex investment strategies. Its operations are more oriented to aggressive speculations in the short and medium-term.
Among the most common strategies is hedging (hedging), carry trade, automated systems based on quantum mathematics. And a large number of combinations between the different option strategies.

The Carry Trade

The central idea of ​​Carry Trade is to buy a pair in which the base currency has a considerably higher interest rate than the quoted currency. To earn the difference in rates regardless of whether the price of the pair rises or falls.
Suppose we buy a $ 100,000 lot of AUDJPY, which according to the rates on the chart would turn out to be the ideal instrument in this example to use the Forex carry trade strategy.
As our capital is in US dollars we have to assume for our example, the following quotes necessary to perform the place calculations:
AUD / JPY = 80.00 USD / JPY = 85.00
What happens internally in your broker is this.
  1. By placing as collateral $ 1,000 of your $ 50,000 of capital (assumed for this example), deposited in your account, you have access to $ 100,000 virtual (this is what is known as leverage); that is, you put in $ 1,000 and your broker lends you 99,000.
  2. With those $ 100,000 virtual dollars, your broker borrows on your behalf ¥ 8,500,000 Japanese yen (85 × 100,000) at 0.1% annual interest from a Japanese bank.
  3. With those ¥ 8,500,000 Japanese yen, your broker buys A $ 106,250 Australian dollars (8,500,000 / 80) and deposits it in an Australian bank where it receives 4.5% annual interest on your behalf.
  4. One year later (and regardless of the profit or loss generated by the pair's movement), your profit will be the difference between the AUD rate and the JPY rate, that is:
Profit = (AUD rate) - (JPY rate) - (costs of the 2 currency exchanges) Profit = (4.5%) - (0.1%) - (0.1% to 1%)
The great advantage of carry trade FOREX strategies is that this percentage profit is applied to the $ 100,000 of the standard lot; the broker transfers all of the profit to you, even if you only contributed $ 1,000. On the other hand, if you carry out the inverse of this operation, this benefit of the Forex carry trade becomes a cost (swap), and you assume it completely.
Remember that FOREX carry trade strategies are recommended for pairs with considerable interest rate differences, such as the one we have just seen in our example.
These FOREX strategies should also not be used in isolation. The idea is that through technical analysis you identify when would be the ideal time to enter the market using your carry trade Forex strategy and multiply your profits considerably.

What FOREX Strategies Do Hedge Funds Use?

The FOREX strategies used by large fund managers do not constitute an advantage in terms of percentage results for them, nor do they constitute a competitive disadvantage for you.
The vast majority of them fail because of their big egos. In fact, there was a firm made up of great financial geniuses, including 2 winners of the Nobel Prize in Economics, who developed a strategy based on quantum mathematical calculations.
With an initial base capital of about 3 billion dollars, and after 3 successful years obtaining annual returns of over 40%, the firm Long-Term Capital Management, begins its fourth year with losses. To counteract these losses the geniuses decide to multiply the initial capital several times, while the losses continued.
The year closed with the bankruptcy of the fund, and with a total accumulated loss of 1 trillion dollars, due to the great leverage used. And all for not admitting that the FOREX Strategies of Long Term Capital Management were not in line with the dynamics of the Market.
There are an overwhelming number of opportunities in the stock markets to make money interpreting the Language of Price.
You don't need to use complex "advanced" strategies that have been created to handle hundreds or billions of dollars.
The reasons for using these FOREX strategies are very different from what a "retail trader" pursues with his small speculation business.
As you can see, you should not worry about wanting to integrate any of these advanced strategies into your arsenal. They are only beneficial for managing hundreds or billions of dollars, where the return parameters are very different when you handle small amounts of capital.
Do not worry about collecting hundreds of free FOREX strategies that circulate on the internet, that great accumulation of mediocre information will only serve to confuse you and waste your valuable time.
Spend that time learning Price Action,
… And you will always be one step behind the Specialists, identifying each new Market condition, and anticipating the vast majority of reversals of all prices.
Ironically, the most successful fund managers indicate that their most profitable trades are those based on the basic trend-following strategies of the Price Language. The same ones that you will learn in this Free Course.
Dedicate yourself to perfecting them and believe me you won't need anything else. As long as you have good risk management, taking into consideration the following points ...

Styles of Investments in FOREX

The Investment FOREX long term is not recommended for small investors like you and me. If we take into account the term investing literally as large investors do who buy a financial product today to sell it years later.
We both have a better niche in the short and medium-term.
You may have noticed that the big multi-year trends in the Forex Market do exist. But minor swings within a big trend are usually very wide.
These minor movements allow us to easily double and triple the annual return of the big general trend, motivating most traders to speculate in the short and medium-term.
These minor oscillations or trends that occur within the large multi-year trends owe their occurrence mainly to two reasons.
First, the FOREX Market presents 3 sessions a day each in different cities of the world with different time zones (Asia, Europe, and America). This causes more frequent trend changes than in the rest of the stock markets.
Second, the purpose for which it was created also plays a role. The modern Foreign Exchange Market, since its inception in 1972, was conceived by the global financial system as a tool for speculation. To obtain benefits in the short and medium-term (from several days to 1 year).
These two points are basically the reasons why we observe the immense speed with which the FOREX market changes trends.
For example, for those who live in America, in the early morning (Europe) the EURUSD pair may be on the rise, in the morning or afternoon (America) it may be down, and then finally at night (Asia) it may return to the rise.

Define your Own Style for your FOREX Investments

One of the first decisions you will have to make is to choose your style as a trader or investor.
There are 4 types of well-defined styles.
Most professional traders tend to have multiple styles, although they always identify with one primary style for their FOREX investments. Study the characteristics of the 4 main styles to make your investments in FOREX :
1. Long Term: recommended for anyone who is going to enter the market for the first time and who can dedicate a minimum of one hour per month to their investments in Forex. The period of an open position ranges from 1 year to 5 years.
2. Medium Term: recommended for anyone who is going to enter the market for the first time and who can dedicate a minimum of one hour per week to their investments in Forex. The period of an open position ranges from 1 month to 1 year.
3. Short Term: recommended for anyone who is going to enter the market for the first time, or who already has a certain time operating in the long and medium-term, showing constant profits, and who can dedicate a minimum of one hour per day to your investments in FOREX. The period of an open position ranges from 1 day to 1 month.
4. Intraday : recommended only for people with a fairly solid earnings record in the short term, and with a capital greater than $ 50,000. As we have noted, this option constitutes a full-time job.
People who start investing in FOREX , should start executing short-term (weeks) and medium-term (months) transactions only, and not pay attention to intraday oscillations (day trading).
If you are interested in being an intraday speculator, I recommend that you first exhaust at least a year doing operations in the short and medium-term to assimilate the correct strategies and to develop the necessary mentality to carry out this work.
The second option would be to participate in some kind of intensive training.
I remind you that self-educating is almost impossible in speculation. You are likely to accumulate a lot of knowledge by reading books and attending courses. But you will probably never learn to make money with all the incomplete "systems" circulating on the internet.

Mistakes to Avoid When Looking for Your Style

Many people who are new to FOREX investments make the mistake of combining these styles, which is a key to failure.
I recommend that if you are not getting the results you expected by adopting one of these styles, do not try to change it. The problem sure is not in the style, but in your strategies or in your psychology.
A successful investor is able to make a profit in any longer trading time than he is used to. I explain. If you are already a profitable operator in the short term, it is very likely that you will also be profitable in the medium and long term,
… As long as you can interpret the Language of Price or Price Action.
In the opposite case, the same would not happen. If you were a medium-term trader, you would need time to adjust to the intraday. The reality is that long, medium and short term traders have very similar personalities. The intraday trader is completely different.

The Myth of the Intraday in Investments in FOREX

If you are already successful in the short, medium and long term, you will notice that the sacrifice and the hours necessary in front of the computer to operate intraday is much greater. The intraday style will be useful to increase your account if it is less than USD $ 100,000 in a very short time in exchange for 8 to 12 hours a day of hard work but ...
You must first develop the necessary skills to operate the intraday.
The ideal is to combine all the styles to get more out of the Market and carry out more effective transactions and have a diversification in your investments in FOREX.
There are intraday traders that are very successful, but the reality is that there are very few in the world that make a profit year after year. If you want to become an intraday, you just have to prepare yourself properly through intensive training.
Otherwise, I recommend that you don't even think about educating yourself to adopt the intraday style. It is not necessary to go against a probability of failure greater than 99%. Unless
... your ego is greater than your common sense.
The main reason why this style of investments in FOREX is not recommended for the vast majority of us "retail investors" (the official term "retail traders"), is the high operational cost.
The real commissions in this market range between $ 2.0 and $ 2.50 for each lot of 100,000 virtual units. This means that a complete operation (opening and closing) is approximately $ 5.00, for each standard lot traded ($ 100,000 virtual).
Another fundamental reason is the advent of robotic traders (HFT = High-Frequency Trading), which tend to manipulate the market in the shorter intraday swings. Please do not confuse HFTs with automated systems that we find daily on the internet, and that can be purchased for a few hundred dollars and often for free on FOREX forums / groups.
These HFTs to which I refer, they are effective. They cost millions of dollars and have been developed by the large Wall Street financial firms to manage their investments in FOREX.
The reality of the intraday trader is that you execute orders for large lots at the same time, to profit from the smallest movements in the market. It is an activity based on reflexes. The slightest oversight or distraction can turn into a catastrophe for your FOREX investments.
I recommend that you start investing in FOREX using slow time periods such as H4 or Daily. For some reason, all Goldman Sachs intraday FOREX investments are made with algorithms.

Finally…

To choose your style as a trader and manage your investments in FOREX, first determine what your degree of experience is, analyze the points mentioned below and the rest you will discover when you execute your first operations.
The points that will affect your decision are:
  • Capital
  • Time available each day
  • Level of Experience
  • Personality
Discovering your style is a search process. For some it will be a long way to find the right time frame that matches their personality. Don't be put off by the falls. After all, those who continue the path despite the falls are the ones who reach the destination.
And I hope you are one of those who get up over and over again. The next lesson will boost your confidence when you discover the main reason that moves currencies ...

Fundamental Analysis in Forex Trading Reddit

The fundamental analysis in Forex is used mostly by long-term investors. Players as we saw in the styles of operators, start a negotiation today, to close it years later.
I always emphasize the importance that the mass media give to this type of analysis to distract the great mass of participants.
It is all part of a great mass psychological manipulation. For centuries the ignorance of the masses has been organized before the great movements begin.
The important news are the macroeconomic reports published by the Central Banks and other government agencies destined for this work. All reports are made up. 99% of them are corrected months later.
These events are tools to justify fundamental analysis and price cleaning movements. Any silly headline does the job. With this, it is possible to absorb most of the existing liquidity, before the new trend phase is projected.

Reaction!

Except in rare situations, the result of an economic report of the fundamental analysis is generally already assimilated in the graph. In most cases, there are financial institutions that already have access to this information and are organizing and carrying out their operations in advance.
The phrase buy the rumor and sell the news is a very old adage on Wall Street. And its meaning contains what we have just explained. For the investor who can interpret the Language of Price, fundamental analysis is of little importance. Well, in general, their disclosure does not indicate that you have to take any action in your open trades , as long as your entry strategy provides you with a good support cushion.
This reality of fundamental analysis causes a lot of confusion for investors who lack in-depth knowledge of the forex market.

Macroeconomic Data

The data published in these events is irrelevant. Both for speculators and for the people in general. They are false. They lack reliability.
The price can go up or down with the same result of the data. The main ones are:
- Interest Rates - GDP (gross domestic product) - CPI (inflation) - ISM (manufacturing index) - NFP (payroll) - Double Deficits (deficit = fiscal + balance of payments)
If you are initiated, I recommend you avoid operating near these events. It is only a matter of having the time pending. Use the economic calendar for Fundamental Analysis of Forex Factory.
There is a probabilistic advantage in operating these fundamental analysis events. But it takes preparation, experience, and practice. They represent a way of diversifying in the general operation of a speculator.

The Uncertainty of Fundamental Analysis

On many occasions after the disclosure of an economic report, the price movement of the currency pair that is going to be affected tends to move in the opposite direction to the logic of the report.
I show you an example of a fundamental analysis report. Imagine that the EUR / USD pair is trading at 1.2500, and the FED (US Federal Reserve) issues a statement announcing that it has just raised inter-bank interest rates from 0.25 points to 0.75 points. Very positive news for the US dollar that logically implies an appreciation of the currency and consequently an instantaneous collapse of the EUR / USD pair (up the dollar and down the euro)
However, minutes after the release of said fundamental analysis report, the pair after effectively collapsing to 1.2400, returns and returns to its levels prior to the report (1.2500). This situation is very common , but it is not so easy to identify it when it is occurring, but after the damage is done.
Traps like these devour the accounts of beginners who approach the market with little experience, with weak strategies, and especially with very little experience.
That is why I reiterate that you forget the fundamental analysis for now. Just keep in mind when operating, that there is no publication scheduled nearby. Just check the economic calendar for the day and forget about the numbers. Let the economists mess around with the data.

FOREX Market Correlation

The Forex market correlation exists between pairs with similar "base" currencies and not always under the same circumstances. The correlation in the Forex market that is most followed and that has the greatest impact on fundamental analysis is that of the US dollar (USD).
The USD is the most traded monetary unit with a volume greater than 80% with respect to the rest of the currencies. This fact determines why their correlation is the most important, the most followed, and perhaps the only one worth following in the fundamental macro analysis.
The 7 major pairs are usually in sync . These 7 pairs all include the USD and present a fundamental analysis correlation almost 75% of the time. Influencing the rest of the currency pairs.

Advantages of the FOREX Market Correlation

In the fundamental analysis the most basic FOREX correlation is the following. When the USD appreciates, the USD / CAD, USD / CHF, and USD / JPY pairs tend to go up in price. This indicates that the Canadian dollar (CAD), the Swiss franc (CHF), and the Japanese yen (JPY) are losing value against the USD.
We must bear in mind that this correlation does not occur 100% of the time. In fact, the JPY generally tends to move in the opposite direction , since in recent decades this currency has been used as a source of financing to invest in other financial instruments.
On the other side is the FOREX market correlation that generates a movement almost in unison in the other 4 major pairs EUR / USD, GBP / USD, AUD / USD, and NZD / USD. These tend to fall in price, homologous the appreciation of the USD. But not always.
In this case the fundamental analysis correlation works most of the time, between 65 and 85% of the time. Small differences are noted in the extent that each of these pairs experiences.
There is also a correlation in the secondary FOREX market, where the pairs of all currencies that do not include the USD participate, but I recommend you not to waste time on them for now. There are more important things about the Language of Price to know first.

FOREX Commodity Correlation

In this part I will explain to you in a basic way the Correlation Commodities - FOREX of the fundamental analysis.
There are three currencies that have a direct correlation with commodities. They are usually called: "COMDOLLS" which is short for "Commodities Dollars" (Commodities Dollars), since all three obey the dollar denomination. These are:
- The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) - The Australian Dollar (AUD) - The Canadian Dollar (CAD)
These three currencies make up the group of the 8 largest together with the euro, the pound, the yen, the franc and the US dollar. Together, they merge to produce the major pairs traded in the FOREX Foreign Exchange Market.
The FOREX Commodity Correlation has an affinity in most cases greater than 75%. And each of them has its different raw material of correlation. You will notice that the NZD and the AUD are two currencies that act practically in unison. Both present minimal discrepancies in their fluctuations in the short, medium and long term.
This is mainly because their economies are very similar and their economic and fiscal policies are too. Their main production items also show great similarities, despite the fact that the Australian economy is much larger than the New Zealand economy.
The raw materials that follow the movement of the AUD are mainly gold and copper. If you put the history of these three quotes during the last decade of the year 2,000 together on the same chart, you will notice a very similar upward movement between the three quotes. Pure correlation of fundamental analysis.
This strong correlation with commodities in the metals area for the AUD has provided Australia with an economic advantage enviable over the other major powers that have seen their currencies devalue sharply against the AUD. At the same time, they experience a constant decrease in the purchasing power of their citizens.
The NZD maintains a correlation with raw materials related to agriculture and livestock, mainly including milk and its derivatives. It is one of the countries that dominates the world export of these economic items, and also has important exports of metals , although in smaller quantities than Australia.
Finally, you have a correlation with raw materials in the energy area. For historical reasons the CAD, which is not the largest oil producer in the world, but an important supplier to the largest consumer that is the US, has seen its currency oscillate in line with oil prices.
To make long-term investments in the Foreign Exchange Market, it is necessary to take into consideration at least one Commodity Correlation - FOREX in your fundamental analysis.

Forex Technical Analysis Reddit

The technical analysis is the methodology that interprets the movements of the price. Specialists look for liquidity to fund their business. The repetition of the strategies used by the specialists in their work generate repetitive patterns.
If you were an analyst, you would develop the visual ability to identify such patterns on a graph. If you were a programmer you would quantify them mathematically using complex formulas.
And if you could learn to interpret the Language of Price, you would have the ability to anticipate 90% of all movements that occur on a chart. And in this business, anticipating is what will make you money.
Market prices are reflected and framed on a horizontal time axis and a vertical price axis. Prices go up or down according to the aggressiveness of the participating operators. In an efficient or balanced market these oscillations should be imperceptible.
But in reality this is not the case, since the Market works thanks to the digital printing of hundreds of billions of units of paper money systematically distributed by the Central Banks through the banking system. These resources serve as a tool to manipulate 100% of the movements that occur in the FOREX Market.
Are you looking for Technical Indicators? All technical indicators were created from the 70's. How do you think that for more than 200 years the speculators of the past accumulated great wealth?
With the Language of Price. The best timing is given by the price itself. Indicator-generated entry signals usually occur at the wrong time.
The basis of technical analysis is human psychology. Unfortunately, human beings are not perfect and are loaded with emotions that dominate their behavior in similar situations, creating repetitive and highly predictable behavior when it occurs in masses.
The study of technical analysis through indicators and subjective training, originates and shapes the collective thinking on which all the traps that specialists execute every day to maintain their business are designed. If the majority won, the Market would cease to exist.
Although you already know that the patterns are not generated by the masses , but the repetitive behavior of the Specialists in the face of the action response of the masses. It is very easy for speculaists, because they can see everyone's orders in their books.
And they also exert a great influence on the decisions of the masses through the mass media. It is what I call the war between the Egg and the Stone , if you hit me you win and if I hit you also you win.

The Deception of Modern Technical Analysis

Through the centuries thousands of people have been able to extract great benefits from the financial markets by applying the basic strategies of technical analysis and the psychology of the Price Language.
More than 200 years ago when the markets began to operate officially, fundamental analysis predominated, which was only used by large financial institutions. As this analysis tool began to become popular, these institutions began to apply the strategies of technical analysis.
In recent decades and with the massification of internet technology, technical analysis has begun to be handled by anyone who has a computer with internet access. The same financial institutions, which have been present for more than a century and as a result of this overcrowding , establish a strategy to confuse and misinform about the true strategies of technical analysis.
This has been accomplished in the following manner. Currently there are hundreds, if not thousands of technical indicators that have been developed by so-called "gurus" of technical analysis and that sell their magic indicators packed in a "system" or "method" that usually cost thousands of dollars, or simply with the publication of a book with which they generate large profits. Double benefit.
The aim is to confuse the initiates in speculation and create the collective mentality that will originate the same behaviors over and over again. About 95% of these new entrants completely lose all the capital they invest in their early stages as investors.
Leaving them with a negative experience and creating the idea and the image that financial markets are an exclusive area for geniuses with high academic levels and that only they can produce returns in the markets year after year.
The initiate, having lost all his original capital, turns to these “gurus” for help and teachings. You spend more capital on the products they offer you and the cycle repeats itself . Obviously, the vast majority do not relapse and completely forget to re-engage in the stock markets.
I hope you have not been a victim of this drama.
Now I will show you the simplicity of a FOREX technical analysis , without the need to resort to any indicator as a tool to determine an effective entry or exit strategy when planning your operations.

The Price Cycle

Previously you studied in the FOREX strategies lesson, that the typical price cycle when it is reflected in a graph, presents four very specific phases and very easy to identify if you perform a technical analysis with common sense . These are:
  • Accumulation
  • Bullish trend
  • Distribution
  • Bearish trend
Remember also that the most effective way to constantly extract profits in the markets is by taking advantage of phases 2 and 4 (the trends). Combined with a correct reading of the collective behavior of the masses of speculators interpreting the Language of Price.
You will be surprised by the simplicity with which thousands of people around the world and over the centuries have accumulated large sums of money by drawing a few simple lines and applying responsible risk management with their capital.

How to Identify Trends?

Being able to determine the trend phases within the price cycle is the essence of technical analysis since it is these two phases that provide you with the probabilistic advantage you need to operate in the markets and obtain constant returns.
In the most plain and simple language, in the world of technical analysis, there are only two types of formations: trends and ranges.
The trends, in turn, can be bullish if they go up, or bearish if they go down. The ranges, on the other hand, can be accumulation if they are at the beginning of the cycle, or distribution if they are in the high part of the cycle. As I had indicated in the topic of FOREX strategies when describing the price cycle.
This sounds more like a play on words, but I will show you the practical definition to simplify your life and then you will apply these definitions on the graph so that everything makes more sense to you.
  • Bullish trend: a succession of major highs and major lows
  • Bearish trend: a succession of minor highs and minor lows
  • Floor Range: equal highs and varied lows
  • Ceiling Range: equal minimums and varied maximums
https://preview.redd.it/vvmsshf0guv51.png?width=600&format=png&auto=webp&s=c321679a7dcc03f7184778be86379ef442fddf91
Some key points from the graph:
  • The start of this big uptrend was detected when the last high (thick green line) of the previous downtrend was broken to the upside, ending the succession of lower highs, while exiting the lateral floor formation.
  • The succession of major lows in the uptrend (thin blue lines)
  • The succession of major highs in the uptrend (thin green lines)
  • The end of the uptrend was detected when the last low (thick blue line) of the uptrend was broken to the downside, ending the succession of higher lows, while exiting the lateral ceiling formation.
A tool that will help you sharpen your technical eye and identify trends on the chart is the Currency Scanner. This application is very effective and will provide you with a much-needed boost in your operations to identify reliable trends. At first, we are not sure how reliable a trend is. You will receive great help to find opportunities with the Currency Scanner .

The Common Sense, The Less Common of Senses

The central idea of ​​technical analysis consists in determining the price situation of a market, that is, in which phase of the pattern of its cycle it is currently conjugated with the collective thinking of the masses and the possible traps that the market would have prepared to remove. the capital at stake by the public.
To carry out a precise technical analysis, you will use the support and resistance lines, which can be static (horizontal) or dynamic (projecting an angle with respect to the horizontal axis).
Your common sense prevails here.
If you show a 10-year-old a chart, they will be able to tell you if the price is going up or down. You will most likely have no idea how to draw the lines, but you will be able to establish the general trend. Simply using your common sense.
By introducing indicators and other gadgets , the simplicity and effectiveness of the technical analysis created by your common sense evaporates.
The following graph conceptually shows you all the possible situations in which you could draw these lines to carry out your technical analysis of the place. You can clearly observe a downtrend delimited by its dynamic trend line and an uptrend on the right side with its respective dynamic delimitation.
https://preview.redd.it/5iehg0r6guv51.png?width=500&format=png&auto=webp&s=84c265a5d35da7ea970792c4bf40fe20b33bd8bd

Forex Charts Analysis

I want to remind you that the formations or patterns that develop on the charts (triangles, wedges, pennants, boxes, etc.) only work to execute trades that have initially been confirmed by the static support and resistance lines and to read the collective thinking of the masses.
Chart formations work, but you must know the Language of Price to determine when the Specialists will exploit a chartist figure, or when they will allow it to run. In fact, you will learn with the Language that you can operate a chart figure in any direction.
Much of the "mentalization" that the masses receive is to believe that the figures are made to be respected. Which is an inefficient way of working. Simply because you could wait days or months for a perfect chart figure to occur in order to perform a reliable trade. When in fact there are dozens every day.

Japanese Candles

Of all the tools you have to carry out technical analysis, perhaps the best known and most popular is the Japanese technique of candles (candlesticks).
Candles are mainly used to identify reversal points on the chart without resorting to confirmation of horizontal trend lines and only using a previous bar or candle breaks.
Its correct use is subject to a multi-time analysis (multiple temporalities) and a general evaluation of the context proposed by the market in general at the time of each scenario.
Later I will show you all the important details to take into account so that you use Japanese candles in a simple and very effective way.
Do not forget ... Trading in your beginnings based on formations (chartism) and candlestick patterns conjugated with hundreds of tools and technical indicators, constitutes the perfect path to your failure. Before using any strategy or technique I recommend you focus on learning the Price Language, which includes 3 basic things:
  • The Price: structure and dynamics
  • Market sentiment: relative strength, external shocks, etc.
  • Psychology: flexible mindset and risk acceptance
After you acquire this solid foundation, I guarantee that you will be able to trade any trading system that exists, any strategy, technique or chart figure in a profitable and consistent manner.
Specialists make money every day at the expense of the collective behavior caused by the use of these strategies and techniques. With which you will only manage to lose your capital and your time by putting the cart in front of the horse.
People who do the opposite, at best become,
... Philosophers of Speculation, or indocile Robot Assistants or Expert Advisors.
To make money in any market condition, range or trend, you must use the technical analysis based on the Price Language and combine it with a correct psychological reading of the price. This knowledge can only be acquired through proper education and lots of supervised practice. Like any other career in life.
I hope you've found this guide helpful!
submitted by kayakero to makemoneyforexreddit [link] [comments]

CMV: Regarding new economic plan that would create an open system of accountability and without increasing the debt.

Currently there are 250,000 people in Las Vegas, NV that will not be able to pay their rent for September. Let's say a total of $125,000 million dollars would take care of their rent situation. I came up with that number by dividing $125,000 by $500. I know rents are higher. This is for illustrative purposes.
This is a very difficult time for just about everyone at the moment. We are looking for answers that we just don’t have. Now is the time to come together as a unit and take part in something bigger than it’s individual parts. I am talking about a new way of financial thinking that creates a win, win, win, situation. Renters make up forty percent of households and thirty eight percent of renters are estimated to be unemployed right now. Eviction notices could be mailed as soon as next month. This is a crisis that will affect the entire country. But there is something that we can do about it, but it takes all of our voices in unity to make it happen. This is a collective action that can be implemented immediately. Now is the time to go beyond thinking out of the box and thinking out of our universe.
Big banks and financial institutions were responsible for the 2007 housing collapse which devastated the entire world economy. In 2008, the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act was signed into law, creating a $700 billion program to purchase devalued assets from banks. This was called the Troubled Asset Relief Program, or TARP. Later, President Obama would direct $75 billion in funds from TARP to help reduce interest payments for homeowners. That means homeowners received around 10% of the direct relief that banks and corporations did, according to Business Insider. It’s now time for the financial institutions to do their share and make up for the last financial debacle.
The financial markets are experiencing all time highs and billionaires got $637 billion dollars richer in the last few months. Somethings definitely out of whack here and I will show you how we fix this. I said we, meaning the millions of people around the world with one voice helping to implement The One Cent More Plan. For any financial movement to be sustainable it must be transparent for all to see where the money is being used and not exploited by a few. That’s why no one organization is responsible for the money involved and each transaction is in the block-chain ledger for all to see at anytime.
This is how it works for renters, landlords and the banks. For the purpose of this example let’s use Cindy as a renter who lives in Las Vegas and lost her job and can’t pay next months rent. She has notified her landlord and he is trying to be as courteous as possible, but he also has a mortgage to pay on his apartment building which has ten units. Some of the other tenants have lost their jobs as well. As you can see this is a common occurrence in Las Vegas at the moment. This is where the bank steps in as the lovable George Bailey types which they will become. I know what you are thinking. Their more like Mr. Potter than George in it’s a Wonderful Life. But you will soon see that it’s in their best interest to be more like George in the long run. If you haven’t seen the movie, I suggest you do. It’s one of my favorites.
I will start with the New York Stock Exchange. The average daily volume for the last three months was 1,123,989,426 shares which equates to a staggering 22,479,788,520 shares per month. What if for each share an additional fee of one cent were added. This would result in $11,239,894.26 dollars per day going into the The One Cent More Plan Fund. You know at the end of each day the total amount that the fund should have simply by looking at the end of day total volume for the market. Multiply that by the number of trading days in the month and it equals 224,797,885.20 dollars. This is just one market. Now let’s say Cindy is a beneficiary of The One Cent More Plan Fund which is setup for the sole purpose of assisting with rent for those who can’t pay. Her rent was 750 dollars she would receive 500 dollars for rent and nothing out of her pocket. But Cindy wouldn’t get a direct payment. She would receive a receipt contract from her bank with a block-chain transaction number which she can look up on the internet to verify that it had been paid. Her landlord would also receive from his bank a receipt contract only because he owes the bank his mortgage payment. If he had no mortgage the payment would go directly to him. His payment would also be on the block-chain. So, Cindy’s rent is paid for the month of September. Her landlord is happy although he doesn’t get his normal amount of 750 dollars, it’s still better than having to go through the hassle of evicting a good tenant and ending up with no rent at all!! And the landlords bank is happy that the mortgage is being paid.
Here is the Ethereum Blockchain Ledger
So how much would it cost to do the same for the other people who can’t pay their rent. This is just one example with one market. As you can see there are no real losers in this equation. A one cent transaction fee on every stock sold is not a lot to fight over. Once Cindy finds a job she would not receive the entire $500 for rent only $300. The remaining $200 would stay in the fund to sustain it. And by the way this is a temporary transaction fee until more people get back to work and the economy starts to recover. It is estimated that $21 trillion dollars is hidden in offshore accounts by the wealthy. Companies in the United States have an estimated $2.1 trillion. If companies just brought back that money and donated the interest alone from it this would have a huge impact on the economy and not increase the national debt at all! When you don’t have customers with money to buy your product it will really begin to feel like 1929 again in a hurry. This could snowball quickly. We don’t have time for negotiations over a stimulus package. Big banks and corporations could really turn their image around and be the true heroes if they wanted to be. The money is there folks we just have to make them accountable with our voices. We have seen how social change can happen all around the world. Let’s not miss this opportunity today right now. I haven’t even spoken about the largest market in the world and that is Forex. If we just took a small portion each day from the six trillion that is traded each day it would help us stop evictions around the world and give people hope.
Banks are already using block-chain technology as we speak. This doesn’t require building brand new infrastructure. As I just showed you this can be done with existing bank accounts. Payments can be made in seconds. I can send my sister money through Zelle in minutes. Their should be no lag time as to when payments can be made. So who is going to foot the bill for making this happen. The banks of course and without any transaction fee whatsoever.
I look forward to all your comments and suggestions with an open mind.
​
Thanks,,
chronus80
submitted by chronus80 to changemyview [link] [comments]

Chance Me: CS Major

Reposting because I didn't get input last time.
Demographics: Indian. Male. From ProspeFrisco Texas. Middle/Upper class area. I would say my high school is very competitive.
Intended Major(s): Computer Science
ACT/SAT/SAT II: SAT: Have not taken a real test. I have taken three practice test all resulted 1440+. Prepping for 1500+, but consider my score to be a flat 1400 for now.
UW GPA and Rank: UW: 3.981 Rank: 12/979
Coursework:
Freshmen Year:
- Honors French 1 (Highest Level that year available to me )
- HonoGT Geometry (Highest Level that year available to me )
- Honors Computer Science 1
- Honors Biology (Highest Level that year available to me )
- AP Human (Highest Level that year available to me ) (4)
- Honors English 1 (Highest Level that year available to me )
- Outdoor Education (Required)
- Digital Art and Animation (Required)
Sophomore Year:
- Honors English 2 (Highest Level that year available to me )
- Honors French 2 (Highest Level that year available to me )
- AP Computer Science A (Highest Level that year available to me ) (5)
- AP Computer Science Principles (Highest Level that year available to me ) (4)
- AP World History (Highest Level that year available to me )
- AP Biology (Highest Level that year available to me ) (3) <-- Not sending this score
- Honors Chemistry (Highest Level that year available to me )
- Honors Algebra 2 (Highest Level that year available to me )
- Academic Level Architecture (Highest Level that year available to me )
Junior Year:
- AP English 3 (Highest Level that year available to me )
- Independent Studies in Video Games (AP Level but not AP) (Highest Level that year available to me )
- Honors UIL Math Prep
- Ap Physics 1 (Highest Level that year available to me ) (5)
- Academic Level US History
- AP Chemistry (Highest Level that year available to me ) (4)
- AP Environmental (Highest Level that year available to me ) (5)
- Honors Pre-Cal (Highest Level that year available to me )
Senior Year (will take upcoming year):
- Honors Computer Science 3 (Highest Level that year available to me )
- Honors Computer Science 2 (Highest Level that year available to me )
- AP English 4 (Highest Level that year available to me )
- AP Gov/Econ (Highest Level that year available to me )
- AP Physics C (Highest Level that year available to me )
- AP Calc BC (Highest Level that year available to me )
- AP Stats (Highest Level that year available to me )
- Still Deciding but not AP for sure.
Awards:
- Adobe Certified Associate - Visual Design using Adobe Photoshop CC2015
- Aloha Math Competition Certificate.
- UIL Math Competition Certificate.
- Multiple Student of the month award
Extracurriculars:
Essays/LORs:
Essays, I have not started.
Letter of Rec: I have three incoming from my teachers. English/CounseloComputer Science/ Math (waiting for response)
Schools:
- MIT,
- Brown University
- Caltech
- Carnegie Mellon
- Columbia University
- Cornell University
- Duke University
- Georgia Institute
- Hamilton
- Harvard University
- Johns Hopkins University
- Princeton University
- Purdue University
- Rice University
- Stanford
- UMich
- UT Austin
- UT Dallas
- Texas A&M
- UC Berkley
submitted by goyalyug000 to chanceme [link] [comments]

What are my chances?

Demographics: Indian. Male. From ProspeFrisco Texas. Middle/Upper class area. I would say my high school is very competitive.
Intended Major(s): Computer Science
ACT/SAT/SAT II: SAT: Have not taken a real test. I have taken three practice test all resulted 1440+. Prepping for 1500+, but consider my score to be a flat 1400 for now.
UW GPA and Rank: UW: 3.981 Rank: 12/979
Coursework:
Freshmen Year:
- Honors French 1 (Highest Level that year available to me )
- HonoGT Geometry (Highest Level that year available to me )
- Honors Computer Science 1
- Honors Biology (Highest Level that year available to me )
- AP Human (Highest Level that year available to me ) (4)
- Honors English 1 (Highest Level that year available to me )
- Outdoor Education (Required)
- Digital Art and Animation (Required)
Sophomore Year:
- Honors English 2 (Highest Level that year available to me )
- Honors French 2 (Highest Level that year available to me )
- AP Computer Science A (Highest Level that year available to me ) (5)
- AP Computer Science Principles (Highest Level that year available to me ) (4)
- AP World History (Highest Level that year available to me )
- AP Biology (Highest Level that year available to me ) (3) <-- Not sending this score
- Honors Chemistry (Highest Level that year available to me )
- Honors Algebra 2 (Highest Level that year available to me )
- Academic Level Architecture (Highest Level that year available to me )
Junior Year:
- AP English 3 (Highest Level that year available to me )
- Independent Studies in Video Games (AP Level but not AP) (Highest Level that year available to me )
- Honors UIL Math Prep
- Ap Physics 1 (Highest Level that year available to me ) (5)
- Academic Level US History
- AP Chemistry (Highest Level that year available to me ) (4)
- AP Environmental (Highest Level that year available to me ) (5)
- Honors Pre-Cal (Highest Level that year available to me )
Senior Year (will take upcoming year):
- Honors Computer Science 3 (Highest Level that year available to me )
- Honors Computer Science 2 (Highest Level that year available to me )
- AP English 4 (Highest Level that year available to me )
- AP Gov/Econ (Highest Level that year available to me )
- AP Physics C (Highest Level that year available to me )
- AP Calc BC (Highest Level that year available to me )
- AP Stats (Highest Level that year available to me )
- Still Deciding but not AP for sure.
​
Awards:
- Adobe Certified Associate - Visual Design using Adobe Photoshop CC2015
- Aloha Math Competition Certificate.
- UIL Math Competition Certificate.
- Multiple Student of the month award
Extracurriculars:
Essays/LORs:
Essays, I have not started.
Letter of Rec: I have three incoming from my teachers. English/CounseloComputer Science/ Math (waiting for response)
Schools:
- MIT,
- Brown University
- Caltech
- Carnegie Mellon
- Columbia University
- Cornell University
- Duke University
- Georgia Institute
- Hamilton
- Harvard University
- Johns Hopkins University
- Princeton University
- Purdue University
- Rice University
- Stanford
- UMich
- UT Austin
- UT Dallas
- Texas A&M
- UC Berkley
submitted by goyalyug000 to chanceme [link] [comments]

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submitted by ViralMedia007 to FREECoursesEveryday [link] [comments]

200 achievements of Modi Govt

  1. Fragile five to Fastest growing economy - India
  2. 11th largest to the 5th largest economy - India
  3. Share of world GDP from 2.43% in 2014 to 3.08% in 2018
  4. Average GDP 7.3% against 6.7% in previous regime
  5. Forex reserves from 300 bn USD in 2014 to 420 bn USD in 2018
  6. Doubling of FDI inflow from 36 bn USD in 2014 to 66 billion USD in 2018
  7. Inflation less than 2.3 % (Nov 18) against 10.1% in 2014
  8. Growth of sensex from 24,121.74 in 2014 to 36,395.03 on 12 Feb 19 (50.88%)
  9. Fiscal deficit under control
  10. Per capita income increased by 45% from Rs 86,647 in 2014 to Rs 1,25,397
  11. IT exemption from 2 lakh in 2014 to 5 lakh (effectively 9.85 lakh with home loan)
  12. Restaurant bills tax reduced from 18% in 2014 to 5%
  13. Transaction charges through card down from 1% to 0%, domestic money transfer fee down from Rs 5 in 2014 to zero
  14. Financial inclusion (32 crore bank accounts with 260 billion worth deposits). Almost 100% coverage from earlier 50%
  15. DBT (savings of 83000 crores @ 15000 crore annually), No of govt schemes DBT applied to increased from 34 in 2014 to 433, 2.7 lakh fake mid-day meal students, 3.3 crore fake LPG connections, 87 lakh fake MNREGA job cards, 3 crore fake ration cards eliminated
  16. Zero IT for businesses with turnover upto 60 lakhs
  17. GST exemplifying cooperative federalism, rates of 83 items down from pre-GST rates, out of 1211 items only 35 items in above 18% slab, 39% reduction of cost of basic household items. Average 1 lk crore monthly revenue through GST collection. Exempted for business upto 40 lk
  18. Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code, constitution of NCLT, 3 lakh crores of NPAs recovered, 66 cases resolved, 260 cases liquidated, resolution of stressed assets, 2100 companies pay back 83000 crore to banks settling their pending loan repayments
  19. 75 billion $ or Yen to Rupee exchange agreement with Japan
  20. 1 lakh shell companies deregistered, FCRA licenses of 4800 NGOs cancelled
  21. Fugitive Economic Offenders Bill, properties of economic fugitives seized and auctioned
  22. 1.9 lakh km of rural roads. Rural road connectivity at 91% from 55%
  23. 36 new airports, from 65 in 7 decades to 106, all states now in air connectivity map
  24. Effective international diplomacy following 59 visits to nations, 38 single, 10 double, 3 triple and 2 quadruple visits by PM.(Seen during Airstrikes,No Country opposed India)
  25. Benami Act for action against Money Laundering
  26. Rural sanitation coverage 95 % up from 39% (8.8 crore toilets)
  27. Solar energy capacity increased 8 fold from 2.63 GW to 22 GW, 19. 8.5 GW of biogas grid installed.
  28. Ganga waterway transportation, usage by shipping giant Maersk, cost of transportation reduced from 10/ton (road) / Rs 6/ton (rail) to Re 1/ton
  29. More than 2.4 crore households lit up, rural electricity coverage to households up from 70 to 95%, only 19836 homes remain (in Chhatisgarh) out of 2,48,09,235
  30. Electricity accessibility rank jump from 99 in 2014 to 26 in 2019
  31. 7 crore new gas connections to 3.5 crore households u/69000 conections per day, coverage 90% from 55%, 82% return for refill, 42% beneficiaries Dalits
  32. 14.4 crore mudra loans worth Rs 7 lakh crore disbursed
  33. 18000 remote villages connected with electricity
  34. 2.92 lakh km of optical fibre laid, 0.02% to 50% gram Panchayat connectivity
  35. Swachh bharat mission has saved, according to WHO, 3 lakh lives and will save 1.5 lakh lives per year.
  36. IT filers increase from 3.79 crore to 6.08 crore, enterprises registered for indirect tax up from 64 lk to 118 lakh
  37. Entry of India in global regimes Missile Technology Control regime (MTCR), WA (Wassenaar Arrangement) and Australia Group
  38. 17 crore soil health cards
  39. 1.5 crore houses built, 91.37 crore in rural areas and 13.5 lakh in urban areas against 25 lakh houses built between 2010-2014. House for all target year is 2022.
  40. 1,78,346 houses built in NE over existing 2875 houses built till 2014
  41. Home loan interest rate down from 10.3 % in 2014 to 8.4% in 2018, annual savings of Rs 47,160 for 30 lakhs over 30 years, no GST on affordable housing, 5% on remaining
  42. Trading agreement in rupee with Iran and UAE
  43. Common service centres up from 84k to 3 Lakh
  44. OROP implemented after 43 years, 35000 crores disbursed to 8 crore veterans
  45. India's vaccination programme Indradhanush amongst 12 best practices of world
  46. 5035 Jan Aushadhi and - 1054 medicines under price control (60-90% discounts).
  47. More than 150 Amrit stores, reduction of cost of cromium cobalt Knee implant from 1.58-2.5 lakh to 54,720 and high flex implant from Rs181728 to 56490 (69%), 85% reduction in cardiac stent price to Rs 28000
  48. 87% reduction in 400 cancer drugs
  49. Rate of Interest on higher education loans dropped from 14.75 in 2013 to 10.88% in 2019, savings of 1.18 lakh on 10 lakh loan over tenure of 60 months, Rs 2000 savings on EMI
  50. Data revolution: Cost of 1 GB $0.26 in India against $12.37 in US, $6.66 in UK and $75.2 in Zimbabwe. Unlimited mobile+ 45 Gb data = Rs 150 against Rs 1000 in 2013; annual savings of 10,200
  51. Katra rail line work completed after 16 years
  52. Dhola Sadiya bridge work completed after 16 years
  53. Sardar Sarovar Dam work completed after 15 years
  54. Aadhaar act
  55. Pakyong airport completed after 10 years
  56. Chennai Nashri Tunnel after 10 years
  57. Assam NRC after 40 years
  58. National War Memorial after 50 years
  59. NE cpas after 60 years
  60. Kollam bypass after 43 years
  61. Indo-Bangladesh enclaves after 42 years
  62. Bansagar canal project after 40 years
  63. Bogibeel bridge after 23 years
  64. Western peri expressway after 15 years
  65. Kota Chambal bridge after 11 years
  66. Maibang-Lumding Stretch completed
  67. Delhi Meerut Expressway completed
  68. Ganga Expressway project (world's longest) underway
  69. Metros in Ahmedabad, Nagpur, Jaipur, Lucknow, Washermenpet
  70. All umanned level crossings eliminated
  71. Ayushman Bharat: annual 5 lakh health care to every family, 15.05 lakh hospital admissions for secondary/ tertiary treatment, 2.4 crore e-cards generated as on 10 Mar 19 in 170 days. Target 50 crore people.
  72. 59minutes loan portal: 92,000 loan applications of MSME amounting to 30,000 crores approved, 6000 crores sanctioned till Nov 18
  73. 87% of farming house (owning land of 2 hctrs) or 12 cr ppl to get kisaan sammaan nidhi of Rs 6000 pr year. Rs 5215 cr transferred directly to 2.6 crore farmers in 37 days (for households with holding less than 0.01 hectares incm per month so far was Rs 8136 agnst exp of 6594
  74. 1.5 million electric rickshaws
  75. Procurement of 36 Rafale on Government to Government Basis avoiding middlemen
  76. 05 billion$ S 400 Triumf air defence missile system deal with Russia
  77. 145 M777 howitzer deal
  78. 22 Apache AH 64E multi-role combat helos
  79. 200 KA-226T helicopters
  80. 56 EADS CASA C-295 transport aircraft
  81. 15 CH 47 Chinook tactical transport helicopters
  82. 2.3 lakh Bullet proof jackets
  83. 1.6 lakh Bullet-proof helmets
  84. 777 mn USD Barak 8 LRSAM contract
  85. 5 bn USD S-400 air defence systems
  86. 10 Heron TP armed drones
  87. 4 additional P8I MR aircraft
  88. 40 units of Laser sensor border fence installed
  89. 72,400 Sig Sauer Assault rifles
  90. 100 self-propelled K9 Vajra howitzers
  91. 700000 AK-103 Kalashnikov assault rifles indigenous facility
  92. Surgical strikes in Myanmar, across LoC and in Pakistan. Only Country to bomb a Nuclear Powered Country
  93. 240 million visitors at Kumbh Mela 2019, cost 4236 crores @ Rs 177 per tourist, revenue 1.2 Lakh crores
  94. 833 teraflop supercomputer Param Shivay by IIT BHU at Rs 32.5 crores
  95. Divisional status to Ladakh
  96. 470 bed ESIC hospital in Ennore
  97. 100 bed ESIC hospital in Tiruppur
  98. Namami Gange - Ganga is 30% cleaner, 83 out of 97 ganga towns and 4456 villages achieved ODF status, 08 out of 16 drains emptying 16 crore l sewage into Ganga tapped. Target date Mar 2020
  99. 5,45,122 ODF villages, 598 ODF districts, 27 ODF states/ villages
  100. RERA implementation
  101. Udaan scheme - flight cost down from Rs 5000/1000 km in 2013 to 3400/1000 km in 2018, 34 airports operationalised, small towns connected, all states on aerial
  102. Preventive conservation of 39275570 folios, curative conservation of 3656863 filios, digitisation of 2.83 lakh manuscripts consisting of 2.93 crore pages
  103. India is now world's largest 2-wheeler manufacturer, 2nd largest smartphone manufacturer (94% of mobiles sold now made in India), 4th largest automaker, 2nd largest steel producer
  104. 5100 m Mandvi Bridge in Goa in 3.5 years
  105. Ease of doing Business ranking jump from 134 in 2014 to 77 in 2019
  106. Therubali - Singapur Bridge No 588
  107. Restoration of Asurgarh Fort, Kalahandi
  108. GeM portal with 731431 product categories, 180,862 registered sellers and 32114 govt buyers
  109. 10% EWS reservation
  110. 40% of ongoing 700 NH projects completed, adding 40,039 km between 2014-18 against 91,287 km between 1947-2014
  111. Highway construction rate jumped from 12 km/day in 2014 to 27 km/day in 2019
  112. 101 terrorists and 11 offenders extradited
  113. 90,000 ex-partite Indians evacuated
  114. Chabahar port, Sittwe port and Duqm port
  115. Military installation in Seychelles
  116. International logistics agreements with US, France and Singapore
  117. Work underway on 25 MLD ZLD Common Effluent Treatment Plant at Gujarat Eco Textile Park and will save 25 million litres of water per day
  118. Beautification of 65 railway stations, all stations fitted with LED lights, wi-fi, multi-brand food centres, kiosks, executive lounges, lifts (445 from 97 in 2014), escalators (603 from 199 in 2014), travellators and ramps
  119. Record number of foot over bridges built
  120. 871 new train services
  121. 180 new rail lines
  122. Dedicated railway freight corridor - 2 sections completed
  123. 100% electrification of railways underway, first solar powered railway station (Guwahati). First solar powered train (world's second), savings of Rs 40 Lakhs and 90,000 ltrs diesel per year
  124. Make in India semi-high-speed trains - Tejas, Gatiman and Vande Bharat
  125. Humsafar and Antodaya trains, Deen Dayalu and Anubhuti coaches, UDAY double decker, glass dome Vistadome coaches
  126. Project Swarn and Project Utkrisht to upgrade Rajdhani/Shatabdi and Mail/Express respectively
  127. Largest coach production in world at ICF, Chennai
  128. No more human extreta on railway tracks. Installation of 1.37 lakh out of 2.5 lakh completed in Jun 18.
  129. 400 wi-fi railway stations (Aug 18)
  130. 80% reduction in rail accidents
  131. 10 high speed rail corridors underway, target date 2025-26
  132. Export of world class customised coaches from MCF, Rae Bareli
  133. LIC and Air India register profit
  134. 2300 km rail tracks constructed, speed jumped from 4.1 km/day in 2014 to 6.53 km/day in 2018
  135. Neem coating of urea
  136. Gokul mission - record 160 million ton milk production
  137. Online availability of CBSE and NCERT books
  138. 10 crore LED bulbs distributed, 5000 crore savings
  139. Investment in urban infrastructure jumped from 157703 crores to 795500 crores
  140. Statue of Unity to commemorate Iron Man of India
  141. Rs 2509 crore sales in Khadi
  142. 482.36 million digital transactions worth Rs 74,978 crores in Oct 2018 against 0.3 million transactions worth Rs 90 crores in Nov 2016
  143. 30% increase in ATMs, 208% increase of PoS machines from 10.81 lakh in May 14 to 33.32 lakh in Aug 18, 111% increase in credit cards from 1.94 crore in May 14 to 4.10 crore in Aug 18, 144% increase in debit cards from 40.17 crore to 98.02 crore
  144. Ease of Doing Business Index 142 (2014) to 100 (2018)
  145. Ease of getting electricity index 99 (2014) to 26 (2018)
  146. UN's e-govt index 118 (2014) to 97(2018)
  147. Globalisation index 112 to 107 (2018)
  148. Innovation index 76 to 60 (2018)
  149. Competitiveness index 71 to 39
  150. Logistics performance index 54 to 35
  151. Global peace index 141 to 137
  152. DBR ranking 100 to 77
  153. India ranks 3rd in global start up ecosystem
  154. 06 crore jobs in MSME sector based on CII data
  155. 448 million formal jobs based on EPFO, NPS and PPF data
  156. 10 crore jobs in entrepreneurship via mudra and other schemes
  157. 80% increase in tax payers, 51.3 % increase in gross tax revenue
  158. Black Money report card - Voluntary income declaration scheme (Rs 65250 crore), IT search and survey operations (35,460 crore), Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Yojana(5000 crore), Benami transactions Act (4300 crore), Black Money and Imposition of Tax Act (4100 crore)
160 Rs 6000 financial assiatence for pregnant women
161/1 . Sagarmala: port capacity increase from 8 to 14.7 lakh ton, cargo up from 89 to 116 MMT 8 new national waterways including ganga waterway NW-1 and Brahmaputra waterway NW-2.
161/2. domestic cruise service between Mumbai and Goa, ro-ro services on Ghoga-Dahej reducing travel distance from 294 to 31 km
161/3. New international cruise terminals at Chennai and Goa, railway line between Haridaspur and Paradip underway, LNG import terminal at Kamarajar port, Oil berth ai Jawahar Dweep,Coal berth at Mangalore port
161/4 . deep draft Iron ore berth at Paradip berth, JNPT SEZ, Kandla and Paradip smart industrial port city, largest dry dock and international ship repair facility at CSL, modernisation of 17 fishing harbours
  1. 800 km Delhi-Mumbai Expressway underway
  2. Replacement of bio-toilets with upgraded vacuum bio toilets in trains underway. Order for 500 placed on experimental basis.
  3. No terror strikes in hinterland
  4. 103 new KVs
  5. 62 new Navodaya Vidyalayas
  6. 6 new IITs against 16 in previous 57 years
  7. 6 new IIMs against 13 in previous 57 years
  8. 7 IIITs against 7 in previous 57 years
  9. 02 new IISER
  10. 12 new AIIMS against 7 in previous 57 years.
  11. 141 new universities against 30 in previous 57 years
  12. 01 new NIT
  13. Life Insurances @ Rs 12 annual and @ Rs 12 monthly premiums
  14. Atal Pension Yojana
  15. Pension to 42 crore people of unorganised sector
  16. Ambedkar memorial
  17. BHIM application for digital payments
  18. Khelo India Initiative for tracking of athletes' development, Rs 5 lk per annum scholarship for 1000 budding athletes per year for eight years each; monthly Rs 50000 out-of -pocket exptr, 2000 PETs, salary cap of coaches doubled from Rs 1-2 lk per month, target 15 yrs
  19. Special Task Force for Olympics
  20. RERA Act
  21. Bullet train maiden project
182/1. Rs 6.92 lakh crore Bharatmala project, 44 economic corridors with 9000 km road, 2000 km port connectivity, 9000km roads to connect district HQs with NH,
182/2. 2000 km road with Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh and Myanmar, opening up of 185 choke points, road development to char dham, 12 greenfield expressways spanning 1900 km
  1. 36 murtis retrieved and brought back to India in 2014-2019 under India Pride Project against 02 between 2000-2013, 02 in 90s, 03 in 80s, 01 in 70s and nil in 50s and 60s
  2. Unemployment rate 3.8% against 13.8 % in 2013
  3. India is a less-cash society now
  4. Develpment of Trincomalee and Columbo port while checkmating China's Hambantota by taking operations of near by (15 km away) Mattala Rajapaksha International Airport
  5. Plugging the 'double taxation avoidance' black money loophole through a new tax agreement with Mauritius
  6. Deal with Switzerland for automatic tax data sharing from 01 Jan 2019
189/1 Varanasi - Varanasi ring road phase 1 completed, phase 2 underway, inland waterways terminal, Babatpur airport highway, 140 MLD Dinaput STP, facelift to railway station, big cow shelter for stray cattle, BPO centre, piped gas project, Varanasi-Balia rail project,
189/2. Vande Bharat Express, Kashi Vishwanath temple - Ganga Ghat corridor project, renovation of all bathings ghats, LED illuminations of ghats and major roads, underground electricity cabling,
189/3. new sewage plants, 02 cancer treatment facilities, 65th to 29th rank in swachhata sarvekshan (2016), 90% ODF district.
  1. Creation of 100 Smart cities, 100 crore per year per city for 05 years, 500 acres for retrofitting, 50 acres for redevelopment, 250 acres for green field projects, 10% of energy from renewable resources, 80% of green building construction, special purpose vehicles.
191/1 Development of 500 AMRUT cities underway, urbanization project of rejuvenation and transformation which includes beach front development, prevention of beach erosion, improvement of water supply, replacement of pipelines,
191/2. New sewerage connections, greenery and open spaces, digital and smart facilities, e-governance, LED streetlights, public transport, storm water drainage projects in a phased manner, Target date 2022
  1. Increase in Child Sex Ratio (CSR) in 104 BBBP (Beti Bachao Beti Padhao) districts, anti-natal care registration in 119 districts and institutional deliveries in 146 out of total 640 districts as in Mar 18. CSR of Haryana increased from 871 to 914.
  2. International Yoga Day
  3. Aspirational Districts Programme: 115 'backward' districts placed under 'prabharis' and for competitive development on the basis of 49 performance indicators, target year 2022.
195/1. Make in India: 16.4 lakh crore investment committments, 1.5 lakh crore investment inquiries, 60 bn USD FDI, 26 sectors covered, 23 positions jump in World Bank's Doing Business Report (DBR), 32 places in WEF's Global Competitiveness Index (GCI),
195/2 19 places in Logistics Performance Index, 42 places in Ease of Doing Business index, schemes include Bharatmala, Sagarmala, dedicate freight corridors, industrial corridors, UDAN-RCS, Bharat Broadband Network, Digital India.
  1. 251 Passport Seva Kendras (PSKs) and Post Office Passport Seva kendras (POPSKs) against 77 till 2014, target of one PSK every 50 km across India.
  2. Unanimous election of Justice Dalveer Bhandari to ICJ forcing UK to pull out own nominee Christopher Greenwood, demonstrating India's clout in international arena.
  3. India Post Payments Bank: India's biggest banking outreach with 1.55 lakh post offices (2.5 times banking network) linked to IPPB system
  4. Philip Kotler award, Seoul Peace prize, Champion of the Earth Award, Grand Collar of the State of Palestine, Amir Abdulla Khan Award, King Abdulaziz Sash award, Amir Amanullah Khan award.
  5. 1900 gifts and memorabilia received by Modi auctioned and 11.7 crores added to Namami Gange fund, 1.4 c of Seoul Peace award also to Nammami Gange.
New Adds
  1. Removal of article 370 and thereby also 35a after several decades.
  2. Giving citizenship to persecuted minorities in Pakistan, Bangladesh and Afghanistan through passing of CAA.
  3. Trust for creation of Ram Mandir underway.
  4. Abolishment of Haj subsidy.
  5. Abolishment and criminalization of instant triple talak.
  6. Deal with Bodo community.
  7. Getting Maulana Masood Azhar listed as an UN designated terrorist.
​
Source - https://www.reddit.com/IndiaRWResources/comments/bgkus6/200_achievements_of_modi_govt/
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List more achievements in the comment section and lets make the list bigger, a big thank you to our fallen kar sevak u/Alive_Firefighter
submitted by justchillar to Chodi [link] [comments]

Hibiscus Petroleum Berhad (5199.KL)

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https://preview.redd.it/gp18bjnlabr41.jpg?width=768&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=6054e7f52e8d52da403016139ae43e0e799abf15
Download PDF of this article here: https://docdro.id/6eLgUPo
In light of the recent fall in oil prices due to the Saudi-Russian dispute and dampening demand for oil due to the lockdowns implemented globally, O&G stocks have taken a severe beating, falling approximately 50% from their highs at the beginning of the year. Not spared from this onslaught is Hibiscus Petroleum Berhad (Hibiscus), a listed oil and gas (O&G) exploration and production (E&P) company.
Why invest in O&G stocks in this particularly uncertain period? For one, valuations of these stocks have fallen to multi-year lows, bringing the potential ROI on these stocks to attractive levels. Oil prices are cyclical, and are bound to return to the mean given a sufficiently long time horizon. The trick is to find those companies who can survive through this downturn and emerge into “normal” profitability once oil prices rebound.
In this article, I will explore the upsides and downsides of investing in Hibiscus. I will do my best to cater this report to newcomers to the O&G industry – rather than address exclusively experts and veterans of the O&G sector. As an equity analyst, I aim to provide a view on the company primarily, and will generally refrain from providing macro views on oil or opinions about secular trends of the sector. I hope you enjoy reading it!
Stock code: 5199.KL
Stock name: Hibiscus Petroleum Berhad
Financial information and financial reports: https://www.malaysiastock.biz/Corporate-Infomation.aspx?securityCode=5199
Company website: https://www.hibiscuspetroleum.com/
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Company Snapshot

Hibiscus Petroleum Berhad (5199.KL) is an oil and gas (O&G) upstream exploration and production (E&P) company located in Malaysia. As an E&P company, their business can be basically described as:
· looking for oil,
· drawing it out of the ground, and
· selling it on global oil markets.
This means Hibiscus’s profits are particularly exposed to fluctuating oil prices. With oil prices falling to sub-$30 from about $60 at the beginning of the year, Hibiscus’s stock price has also fallen by about 50% YTD – from around RM 1.00 to RM 0.45 (as of 5 April 2020).
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While the company is domiciled in Malaysia, its two main oil producing fields are located in both Malaysia and the UK. The Malaysian oil field is commonly referred to as the North Sabah field, while the UK oil field is commonly referred to as the Anasuria oil field. Hibiscus has licenses to other oil fields in different parts of the world, notably the Marigold/Sunflower oil fields in the UK and the VIC cluster in Australia, but its revenues and profits mainly stem from the former two oil producing fields.
Given that it’s a small player and has only two primary producing oil fields, it’s not surprising that Hibiscus sells its oil to a concentrated pool of customers, with 2 of them representing 80% of its revenues (i.e. Petronas and BP). Fortunately, both these customers are oil supermajors, and are unlikely to default on their obligations despite low oil prices.
At RM 0.45 per share, the market capitalization is RM 714.7m and it has a trailing PE ratio of about 5x. It doesn’t carry any debt, and it hasn’t paid a dividend in its listing history. The MD, Mr. Kenneth Gerard Pereira, owns about 10% of the company’s outstanding shares.
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Reserves (Total recoverable oil) & Production (bbl/day)

To begin analyzing the company, it’s necessary to understand a little of the industry jargon. We’ll start with Reserves and Production.
In general, there are three types of categories for a company’s recoverable oil volumes – Reserves, Contingent Resources and Prospective Resources. Reserves are those oil fields which are “commercial”, which is defined as below:
As defined by the SPE PRMS, Reserves are “… quantities of petroleum anticipated to be commercially recoverable by application of development projects to known accumulations from a given date forward under defined conditions.” Therefore, Reserves must be discovered (by drilling, recoverable (with current technology), remaining in the subsurface (at the effective date of the evaluation) and “commercial” based on the development project proposed.)
Note that Reserves are associated with development projects. To be considered as “commercial”, there must be a firm intention to proceed with the project in a reasonable time frame (typically 5 years, and such intention must be based upon all of the following criteria:)
- A reasonable assessment of the future economics of the development project meeting defined investment and operating criteria; - A reasonable expectation that there will be a market for all or at least the expected sales quantities of production required to justify development; - Evidence that the necessary production and transportation facilities are available or can be made available; and - Evidence that legal, contractual, environmental and other social and economic concerns will allow for the actual implementation of the recovery project being evaluated.
Contingent Resources and Prospective Resources are further defined as below:
- Contingent Resources: potentially recoverable volumes associated with a development plan that targets discovered volumes but is not (yet commercial (as defined above); and) - Prospective Resources: potentially recoverable volumes associated with a development plan that targets as yet undiscovered volumes.
In the industry lingo, we generally refer to Reserves as ‘P’ and Contingent Resources as ‘C’. These ‘P’ and ‘C’ resources can be further categorized into 1P/2P/3P resources and 1C/2C/3C resources, each referring to a low/medium/high estimate of the company’s potential recoverable oil volumes:
- Low/1C/1P estimate: there should be reasonable certainty that volumes actually recovered will equal or exceed the estimate; - Best/2C/2P estimate: there should be an equal likelihood of the actual volumes of petroleum being larger or smaller than the estimate; and - High/3C/3P estimate: there is a low probability that the estimate will be exceeded.
Hence in the E&P industry, it is easy to see why most investors and analysts refer to the 2P estimate as the best estimate for a company’s actual recoverable oil volumes. This is because 2P reserves (‘2P’ referring to ‘Proved and Probable’) are a middle estimate of the recoverable oil volumes legally recognized as “commercial”.
However, there’s nothing stopping you from including 2C resources (riskier) or utilizing 1P resources (conservative) as your estimate for total recoverable oil volumes, depending on your risk appetite. In this instance, the company has provided a snapshot of its 2P and 2C resources in its analyst presentation:
https://preview.redd.it/o8qejdyc8br41.png?width=710&format=png&auto=webp&s=b3ab9be8f83badf0206adc982feda3a558d43e78
Basically, what the company is saying here is that by 2021, it will have classified as 2P reserves at least 23.7 million bbl from its Anasuria field and 20.5 million bbl from its North Sabah field – for total 2P reserves of 44.2 million bbl (we are ignoring the Australian VIC cluster as it is only estimated to reach first oil by 2022).
Furthermore, the company is stating that they have discovered (but not yet legally classified as “commercial”) a further 71 million bbl of oil from both the Anasuria and North Sabah fields, as well as the Marigold/Sunflower fields. If we include these 2C resources, the total potential recoverable oil volumes could exceed 100 million bbl.
In this report, we shall explore all valuation scenarios giving consideration to both 2P and 2C resources.
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The company further targets a 2021 production rate of 20,000 bbl (LTM: 8,000 bbl), which includes 5,000 bbl from its Anasuria field (LTM: 2,500 bbl) and 7,000 bbl from its North Sabah field (LTM: 5,300 bbl).
This is a substantial increase in forecasted production from both existing and prospective oil fields. If it materializes, annual production rate could be as high as 7,300 mmbbl, and 2021 revenues (given FY20 USD/bbl of $60) could exceed RM 1.5 billion (FY20: RM 988 million).
However, this targeted forecast is quite a stretch from current production levels. Nevertheless, we shall consider all provided information in estimating a valuation for Hibiscus.
To understand Hibiscus’s oil production capacity and forecast its revenues and profits, we need to have a better appreciation of the performance of its two main cash-generating assets – the North Sabah field and the Anasuria field.
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North Sabah oil field
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Hibiscus owns a 50% interest in the North Sabah field together with its partner Petronas, and has production rights over the field up to year 2040. The asset contains 4 oil fields, namely the St Joseph field, South Furious field, SF 30 field and Barton field.
For the sake of brevity, we shall not delve deep into the operational aspects of the fields or the contractual nature of its production sharing contract (PSC). We’ll just focus on the factors which relate to its financial performance. These are:
· Average uptime
· Total oil sold
· Average realized oil price
· Average OPEX per bbl
With regards to average uptime, we can see that the company maintains relative high facility availability, exceeding 90% uptime in all quarters of the LTM with exception of Jul-Sep 2019. The dip in average uptime was due to production enhancement projects and maintenance activities undertaken to improve the production capacity of the St Joseph and SF30 oil fields.
Hence, we can conclude that management has a good handle on operational performance. It also implies that there is little room for further improvement in production resulting from increased uptime.
As North Sabah is under a production sharing contract (PSC), there is a distinction between gross oil production and net oil production. The former relates to total oil drawn out of the ground, whereas the latter refers to Hibiscus’s share of oil production after taxes, royalties and expenses are accounted for. In this case, we want to pay attention to net oil production, not gross.
We can arrive at Hibiscus’s total oil sold for the last twelve months (LTM) by adding up the total oil sold for each of the last 4 quarters. Summing up the figures yields total oil sold for the LTM of approximately 2,075,305 bbl.
Then, we can arrive at an average realized oil price over the LTM by averaging the average realized oil price for the last 4 quarters, giving us an average realized oil price over the LTM of USD 68.57/bbl. We can do the same for average OPEX per bbl, giving us an average OPEX per bbl over the LTM of USD 13.23/bbl.
Thus, we can sum up the above financial performance of the North Sabah field with the following figures:
· Total oil sold: 2,075,305 bbl
· Average realized oil price: USD 68.57/bbl
· Average OPEX per bbl: USD 13.23/bbl
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Anasuria oil field
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Doing the same exercise as above for the Anasuria field, we arrive at the following financial performance for the Anasuria field:
· Total oil sold: 1,073,304 bbl
· Average realized oil price: USD 63.57/bbl
· Average OPEX per bbl: USD 23.22/bbl
As gas production is relatively immaterial, and to be conservative, we shall only consider the crude oil production from the Anasuria field in forecasting revenues.
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Valuation (Method 1)

Putting the figures from both oil fields together, we get the following data:
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Given that we have determined LTM EBITDA of RM 632m, the next step would be to subtract ITDA (interest, tax, depreciation & amortization) from it to obtain estimated LTM Net Profit. Using FY2020’s ITDA of approximately RM 318m as a guideline, we arrive at an estimated LTM Net Profit of RM 314m (FY20: 230m). Given the current market capitalization of RM 714.7m, this implies a trailing LTM PE of 2.3x.
Performing a sensitivity analysis given different oil prices, we arrive at the following net profit table for the company under different oil price scenarios, assuming oil production rate and ITDA remain constant:
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From the above exercise, it becomes apparent that Hibiscus has a breakeven oil price of about USD 41.8863/bbl, and has a lot of operating leverage given the exponential rate of increase in its Net Profit with each consequent increase in oil prices.
Considering that the oil production rate (EBITDA) is likely to increase faster than ITDA’s proportion to revenues (fixed costs), at an implied PE of 4.33x, it seems likely that an investment in Hibiscus will be profitable over the next 10 years (with the assumption that oil prices will revert to the mean in the long-term).
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Valuation (Method 2)

Of course, there are a lot of assumptions behind the above method of valuation. Hence, it would be prudent to perform multiple methods of valuation and compare the figures to one another.
As opposed to the profit/loss assessment in Valuation (Method 1), another way of performing a valuation would be to estimate its balance sheet value, i.e. total revenues from 2P Reserves, and assign a reasonable margin to it.
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From the above, we understand that Hibiscus’s 2P reserves from the North Sabah and Anasuria fields alone are approximately 44.2 mmbbl (we ignore contribution from Australia’s VIC cluster as it hasn’t been developed yet).
Doing a similar sensitivity analysis of different oil prices as above, we arrive at the following estimated total revenues and accumulated net profit:
https://preview.redd.it/h8hubrmw8br41.png?width=450&format=png&auto=webp&s=6d23f0f9c3dafda89e758b815072ba335467f33e
Let’s assume that the above average of RM 9.68 billion in total realizable revenues from current 2P reserves holds true. If we assign a conservative Net Profit margin of 15% (FY20: 23%; past 5 years average: 16%), we arrive at estimated accumulated Net Profit from 2P Reserves of RM 1.452 billion. Given the current market capitalization of RM 714 million, we might be able to say that the equity is worth about twice the current share price.
However, it is understandable that some readers might feel that the figures used in the above estimate (e.g. net profit margin of 15%) were randomly plucked from the sky. So how do we reconcile them with figures from the financial statements? Fortunately, there appears to be a way to do just that.
Intangible Assets
I refer you to a figure in the financial statements which provides a shortcut to the valuation of 2P Reserves. This is the carrying value of Intangible Assets on the Balance Sheet.
As of 2QFY21, that amount was RM 1,468,860,000 (i.e. RM 1.468 billion).
https://preview.redd.it/hse8ttb09br41.png?width=881&format=png&auto=webp&s=82e48b5961c905fe9273cb6346368de60202ebec
Quite coincidentally, one might observe that this figure is dangerously close to the estimated accumulated Net Profit from 2P Reserves of RM 1.452 billion we calculated earlier. But why would this amount matter at all?
To answer that, I refer you to the notes of the Annual Report FY20 (AR20). On page 148 of the AR20, we find the following two paragraphs:
E&E assets comprise of rights and concession and conventional studies. Following the acquisition of a concession right to explore a licensed area, the costs incurred such as geological and geophysical surveys, drilling, commercial appraisal costs and other directly attributable costs of exploration and appraisal including technical and administrative costs, are capitalised as conventional studies, presented as intangible assets.
E&E assets are assessed for impairment when facts and circumstances suggest that the carrying amount of an E&E asset may exceed its recoverable amount. The Group will allocate E&E assets to cash generating unit (“CGU”s or groups of CGUs for the purpose of assessing such assets for impairment. Each CGU or group of units to which an E&E asset is allocated will not be larger than an operating segment as disclosed in Note 39 to the financial statements.)
Hence, we can determine that firstly, the intangible asset value represents capitalized costs of acquisition of the oil fields, including technical exploration costs and costs of acquiring the relevant licenses. Secondly, an impairment review will be carried out when “the carrying amount of an E&E asset may exceed its recoverable amount”, with E&E assets being allocated to “cash generating units” (CGU) for the purposes of assessment.
On page 169 of the AR20, we find the following:
Carrying amounts of the Group’s intangible assets, oil and gas assets and FPSO are reviewed for possible impairment annually including any indicators of impairment. For the purpose of assessing impairment, assets are grouped at the lowest level CGUs for which there is a separately identifiable cash flow available. These CGUs are based on operating areas, represented by the 2011 North Sabah EOR PSC (“North Sabah”, the Anasuria Cluster, the Marigold and Sunflower fields, the VIC/P57 exploration permit (“VIC/P57”) and the VIC/L31 production license (“VIC/L31”).)
So apparently, the CGUs that have been assigned refer to the respective oil producing fields, two of which include the North Sabah field and the Anasuria field. In order to perform the impairment review, estimates of future cash flow will be made by management to assess the “recoverable amount” (as described above), subject to assumptions and an appropriate discount rate.
Hence, what we can gather up to now is that management will estimate future recoverable cash flows from a CGU (i.e. the North Sabah and Anasuria oil fields), compare that to their carrying value, and perform an impairment if their future recoverable cash flows are less than their carrying value. In other words, if estimated accumulated profits from the North Sabah and Anasuria oil fields are less than their carrying value, an impairment is required.
So where do we find the carrying values for the North Sabah and Anasuria oil fields? Further down on page 184 in the AR20, we see the following:
Included in rights and concession are the carrying amounts of producing field licenses in the Anasuria Cluster amounting to RM668,211,518 (2018: RM687,664,530, producing field licenses in North Sabah amounting to RM471,031,008 (2018: RM414,333,116))
Hence, we can determine that the carrying values for the North Sabah and Anasuria oil fields are RM 471m and RM 668m respectively. But where do we find the future recoverable cash flows of the fields as estimated by management, and what are the assumptions used in that calculation?
Fortunately, we find just that on page 185:
17 INTANGIBLE ASSETS (CONTINUED)
(a Anasuria Cluster)
The Directors have concluded that there is no impairment indicator for Anasuria Cluster during the current financial year. In the previous financial year, due to uncertainties in crude oil prices, the Group has assessed the recoverable amount of the intangible assets, oil and gas assets and FPSO relating to the Anasuria Cluster. The recoverable amount is determined using the FVLCTS model based on discounted cash flows (“DCF” derived from the expected cash in/outflow pattern over the production lives.)
The key assumptions used to determine the recoverable amount for the Anasuria Cluster were as follows:
(i Discount rate of 10%;)
(ii Future cost inflation factor of 2% per annum;)
(iii Oil price forecast based on the oil price forward curve from independent parties; and,)
(iv Oil production profile based on the assessment by independent oil and gas reserve experts.)
Based on the assessments performed, the Directors concluded that the recoverable amount calculated based on the valuation model is higher than the carrying amount.
(b North Sabah)
The acquisition of the North Sabah assets was completed in the previous financial year. Details of the acquisition are as disclosed in Note 15 to the financial statements.
The Directors have concluded that there is no impairment indicator for North Sabah during the current financial year.
Here, we can see that the recoverable amount of the Anasuria field was estimated based on a DCF of expected future cash flows over the production life of the asset. The key assumptions used by management all seem appropriate, including a discount rate of 10% and oil price and oil production estimates based on independent assessment. From there, management concludes that the recoverable amount of the Anasuria field is higher than its carrying amount (i.e. no impairment required). Likewise, for the North Sabah field.
How do we interpret this? Basically, what management is saying is that given a 10% discount rate and independent oil price and oil production estimates, the accumulated profits (i.e. recoverable amount) from both the North Sabah and the Anasuria fields exceed their carrying amounts of RM 471m and RM 668m respectively.
In other words, according to management’s own estimates, the carrying value of the Intangible Assets of RM 1.468 billion approximates the accumulated Net Profit recoverable from 2P reserves.
To conclude Valuation (Method 2), we arrive at the following:
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Our estimates Management estimates
Accumulated Net Profit from 2P Reserves RM 1.452 billion RM 1.468 billion
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Financials

By now, we have established the basic economics of Hibiscus’s business, including its revenues (i.e. oil production and oil price scenarios), costs (OPEX, ITDA), profitability (breakeven, future earnings potential) and balance sheet value (2P reserves, valuation). Moving on, we want to gain a deeper understanding of the 3 statements to anticipate any blind spots and risks. We’ll refer to the financial statements of both the FY20 annual report and the 2Q21 quarterly report in this analysis.
For the sake of brevity, I’ll only point out those line items which need extra attention, and skip over the rest. Feel free to go through the financial statements on your own to gain a better familiarity of the business.
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Income Statement
First, we’ll start with the Income Statement on page 135 of the AR20. Revenues are straightforward, as we’ve discussed above. Cost of Sales and Administrative Expenses fall under the jurisdiction of OPEX, which we’ve also seen earlier. Other Expenses are mostly made up of Depreciation & Amortization of RM 115m.
Finance Costs are where things start to get tricky. Why does a company which carries no debt have such huge amounts of finance costs? The reason can be found in Note 8, where it is revealed that the bulk of finance costs relate to the unwinding of discount of provision for decommissioning costs of RM 25m (Note 32).
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This actually refers to the expected future costs of restoring the Anasuria and North Sabah fields to their original condition once the oil reserves have been depleted. Accounting standards require the company to provide for these decommissioning costs as they are estimable and probable. The way the decommissioning costs are accounted for is the same as an amortized loan, where the initial carrying value is recognized as a liability and the discount rate applied is reversed each year as an expense on the Income Statement. However, these expenses are largely non-cash in nature and do not necessitate a cash outflow every year (FY20: RM 69m).
Unwinding of discount on non-current other payables of RM 12m relate to contractual payments to the North Sabah sellers. We will discuss it later.
Taxation is another tricky subject, and is even more significant than Finance Costs at RM 161m. In gist, Hibiscus is subject to the 38% PITA (Petroleum Income Tax Act) under Malaysian jurisdiction, and the 30% Petroleum tax + 10% Supplementary tax under UK jurisdiction. Of the RM 161m, RM 41m of it relates to deferred tax which originates from the difference between tax treatment and accounting treatment on capitalized assets (accelerated depreciation vs straight-line depreciation). Nonetheless, what you should take away from this is that the tax expense is a tangible expense and material to breakeven analysis.
Fortunately, tax is a variable expense, and should not materially impact the cash flow of Hibiscus in today’s low oil price environment.
Note: Cash outflows for Tax Paid in FY20 was RM 97m, substantially below the RM 161m tax expense.
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Balance Sheet
The balance sheet of Hibiscus is unexciting; I’ll just bring your attention to those line items which need additional scrutiny. I’ll use the figures in the latest 2Q21 quarterly report (2Q21) and refer to the notes in AR20 for clarity.
We’ve already discussed Intangible Assets in the section above, so I won’t dwell on it again.
Moving on, the company has Equipment of RM 582m, largely relating to O&G assets (e.g. the Anasuria FPSO vessel and CAPEX incurred on production enhancement projects). Restricted cash and bank balances represent contractual obligations for decommissioning costs of the Anasuria Cluster, and are inaccessible for use in operations.
Inventories are relatively low, despite Hibiscus being an E&P company, so forex fluctuations on carrying value of inventories are relatively immaterial. Trade receivables largely relate to entitlements from Petronas and BP (both oil supermajors), and are hence quite safe from impairment. Other receivables, deposits and prepayments are significant as they relate to security deposits placed with sellers of the oil fields acquired; these should be ignored for cash flow purposes.
Note: Total cash and bank balances do not include approximately RM 105 m proceeds from the North Sabah December 2019 offtake (which was received in January 2020)
Cash and bank balances of RM 90m do not include RM 105m of proceeds from offtake received in 3Q21 (Jan 2020). Hence, the actual cash and bank balances as of 2Q21 approximate RM 200m.
Liabilities are a little more interesting. First, I’ll draw your attention to the significant Deferred tax liabilities of RM 457m. These largely relate to the amortization of CAPEX (i.e. Equipment and capitalized E&E expenses), which is given an accelerated depreciation treatment for tax purposes.
The way this works is that the government gives Hibiscus a favorable tax treatment on capital expenditures incurred via an accelerated depreciation schedule, so that the taxable income is less than usual. However, this leads to the taxable depreciation being utilized quicker than accounting depreciation, hence the tax payable merely deferred to a later period – when the tax depreciation runs out but accounting depreciation remains. Given the capital intensive nature of the business, it is understandable why Deferred tax liabilities are so large.
We’ve discussed Provision for decommissioning costs under the Finance Costs section earlier. They are also quite significant at RM 266m.
Notably, the Other Payables and Accruals are a hefty RM 431m. What do they relate to? Basically, they are contractual obligations to the sellers of the oil fields which are only payable upon oil prices reaching certain thresholds. Hence, while they are current in nature, they will only become payable when oil prices recover to previous highs, and are hence not an immediate cash outflow concern given today’s low oil prices.
Cash Flow Statement
There is nothing in the cash flow statement which warrants concern.
Notably, the company generated OCF of approximately RM 500m in FY20 and RM 116m in 2Q21. It further incurred RM 330m and RM 234m of CAPEX in FY20 and 2Q21 respectively, largely owing to production enhancement projects to increase the production rate of the Anasuria and North Sabah fields, which according to management estimates are accretive to ROI.
Tax paid was RM 97m in FY20 and RM 61m in 2Q21 (tax expense: RM 161m and RM 62m respectively).
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Risks

There are a few obvious and not-so-obvious risks that one should be aware of before investing in Hibiscus. We shall not consider operational risks (e.g. uptime, OPEX) as they are outside the jurisdiction of the equity analyst. Instead, we shall focus on the financial and strategic risks largely outside the control of management. The main ones are:
· Oil prices remaining subdued for long periods of time
· Fluctuation of exchange rates
· Customer concentration risk
· 2P Reserves being less than estimated
· Significant current and non-current liabilities
· Potential issuance of equity
Oil prices remaining subdued
Of topmost concern in the minds of most analysts is whether Hibiscus has the wherewithal to sustain itself through this period of low oil prices (sub-$30). A quick and dirty estimate of annual cash outflow (i.e. burn rate) assuming a $20 oil world and historical production rates is between RM 50m-70m per year, which considering the RM 200m cash balance implies about 3-4 years of sustainability before the company runs out of cash and has to rely on external assistance for financing.
Table 1: Hibiscus EBITDA at different oil price and exchange rates
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The above table shows different EBITDA scenarios (RM ‘m) given different oil prices (left column) and USD:MYR exchange rates (top row). Currently, oil prices are $27 and USD:MYR is 1:4.36.
Given conservative assumptions of average OPEX/bbl of $20 (current: $15), we can safely say that the company will be loss-making as long as oil remains at $20 or below (red). However, we can see that once oil prices hit $25, the company can tank the lower-end estimate of the annual burn rate of RM 50m (orange), while at RM $27 it can sufficiently muddle through the higher-end estimate of the annual burn rate of RM 70m (green).
Hence, we can assume that as long as the average oil price over the next 3-4 years remains above $25, Hibiscus should come out of this fine without the need for any external financing.
Customer Concentration Risk
With regards to customer concentration risk, there is not much the analyst or investor can do except to accept the risk. Fortunately, 80% of revenues can be attributed to two oil supermajors (Petronas and BP), hence the risk of default on contractual obligations and trade receivables seems to be quite diminished.
2P Reserves being less than estimated
2P Reserves being less than estimated is another risk that one should keep in mind. Fortunately, the current market cap is merely RM 714m – at half of estimated recoverable amounts of RM 1.468 billion – so there’s a decent margin of safety. In addition, there are other mitigating factors which shall be discussed in the next section (‘Opportunities’).
Significant non-current and current liabilities
The significant non-current and current liabilities have been addressed in the previous section. It has been determined that they pose no threat to immediate cash flow due to them being long-term in nature (e.g. decommissioning costs, deferred tax, etc). Hence, for the purpose of assessing going concern, their amounts should not be a cause for concern.
Potential issuance of equity
Finally, we come to the possibility of external financing being required in this low oil price environment. While the company should last 3-4 years on existing cash reserves, there is always the risk of other black swan events materializing (e.g. coronavirus) or simply oil prices remaining muted for longer than 4 years.
Furthermore, management has hinted that they wish to acquire new oil assets at presently depressed prices to increase daily production rate to a targeted 20,000 bbl by end-2021. They have room to acquire debt, but they may also wish to issue equity for this purpose. Hence, the possibility of dilution to existing shareholders cannot be entirely ruled out.
However, given management’s historical track record of prioritizing ROI and optimal capital allocation, and in consideration of the fact that the MD owns 10% of outstanding shares, there is some assurance that any potential acquisitions will be accretive to EPS and therefore valuations.
​

Opportunities

As with the existence of risk, the presence of material opportunities also looms over the company. Some of them are discussed below:
· Increased Daily Oil Production Rate
· Inclusion of 2C Resources
· Future oil prices exceeding $50 and effects from coronavirus dissipating
Increased Daily Oil Production Rate
The first and most obvious opportunity is the potential for increased production rate. We’ve seen in the last quarter (2Q21) that the North Sabah field increased its daily production rate by approximately 20% as a result of production enhancement projects (infill drilling), lowering OPEX/bbl as a result. To vastly oversimplify, infill drilling is the process of maximizing well density by drilling in the spaces between existing wells to improve oil production.
The same improvements are being undertaken at the Anasuria field via infill drilling, subsea debottlenecking, water injection and sidetracking of existing wells. Without boring you with industry jargon, this basically means future production rate is likely to improve going forward.
By how much can the oil production rate be improved by? Management estimates in their analyst presentation that enhancements in the Anasuria field will be able to yield 5,000 bbl/day by 2021 (current: 2,500 bbl/day).
Similarly, improvements in the North Sabah field is expected to yield 7,000 bbl/day by 2021 (current: 5,300 bbl/day).
This implies a total 2021 expected daily production rate from the two fields alone of 12,000 bbl/day (current: 8,000 bbl/day). That’s a 50% increase in yields which we haven’t factored into our valuation yet.
Furthermore, we haven’t considered any production from existing 2C resources (e.g. Marigold/Sunflower) or any potential acquisitions which may occur in the future. By management estimates, this can potentially increase production by another 8,000 bbl/day, bringing total production to 20,000 bbl/day.
While this seems like a stretch of the imagination, it pays to keep them in mind when forecasting future revenues and valuations.
Just to play around with the numbers, I’ve come up with a sensitivity analysis of possible annual EBITDA at different oil prices and daily oil production rates:
Table 2: Hibiscus EBITDA at different oil price and daily oil production rates
https://preview.redd.it/jnpfhr5n9br41.png?width=814&format=png&auto=webp&s=bbe4b512bc17f576d87529651140cc74cde3d159
The left column represents different oil prices while the top row represents different daily oil production rates.
The green column represents EBITDA at current daily production rate of 8,000 bbl/day; the orange column represents EBITDA at targeted daily production rate of 12,000 bbl/day; while the purple column represents EBITDA at maximum daily production rate of 20,000 bbl/day.
Even conservatively assuming increased estimated annual ITDA of RM 500m (FY20: RM 318m), and long-term average oil prices of $50 (FY20: $60), the estimated Net Profit and P/E ratio is potentially lucrative at daily oil production rates of 12,000 bbl/day and above.
2C Resources
Since we’re on the topic of improved daily oil production rate, it bears to pay in mind the relatively enormous potential from Hibiscus’s 2C Resources. North Sabah’s 2C Resources alone exceed 30 mmbbl; while those from the yet undiagnosed Marigold/Sunflower fields also reach 30 mmbbl. Altogether, 2C Resources exceed 70 mmbbl, which dwarfs the 44 mmbbl of 2P Reserves we have considered up to this point in our valuation estimates.
To refresh your memory, 2C Resources represents oil volumes which have been discovered but are not yet classified as “commercial”. This means that there is reasonable certainty of the oil being recoverable, as opposed to simply being in the very early stages of exploration. So, to be conservative, we will imagine that only 50% of 2C Resources are eligible for reclassification to 2P reserves, i.e. 35 mmbbl of oil.
https://preview.redd.it/mto11iz7abr41.png?width=375&format=png&auto=webp&s=e9028ab0816b3d3e25067447f2c70acd3ebfc41a
This additional 35 mmbbl of oil represents an 80% increase to existing 2P reserves. Assuming the daily oil production rate increases similarly by 80%, we will arrive at 14,400 bbl/day of oil production. According to Table 2 above, this would yield an EBITDA of roughly RM 630m assuming $50 oil.
Comparing that estimated EBITDA to FY20’s actual EBITDA:
FY20 FY21 (incl. 2C) Difference
Daily oil production (bbl/day) 8,626 14,400 +66%
Average oil price (USD/bbl) $68.57 $50 -27%
Average OPEX/bbl (USD) $16.64 $20 +20%
EBITDA (RM ‘m) 632 630 -
Hence, even conservatively assuming lower oil prices and higher OPEX/bbl (which should decrease in the presence of higher oil volumes) than last year, we get approximately the same EBITDA as FY20.
For the sake of completeness, let’s assume that Hibiscus issues twice the no. of existing shares over the next 10 years, effectively diluting shareholders by 50%. Even without accounting for the possibility of the acquisition of new oil fields, at the current market capitalization of RM 714m, the prospective P/E would be about 10x. Not too shabby.
Future oil prices exceeding $50 and effects from coronavirus dissipating
Hibiscus shares have recently been hit by a one-two punch from oil prices cratering from $60 to $30, as a result of both the Saudi-Russian dispute and depressed demand for oil due to coronavirus. This has massively increased supply and at the same time hugely depressed demand for oil (due to the globally coordinated lockdowns being implemented).
Given a long enough timeframe, I fully expect OPEC+ to come to an agreement and the economic effects from the coronavirus to dissipate, allowing oil prices to rebound. As we equity investors are aware, oil prices are cyclical and are bound to recover over the next 10 years.
When it does, valuations of O&G stocks (including Hibiscus’s) are likely to improve as investors overshoot expectations and begin to forecast higher oil prices into perpetuity, as they always tend to do in good times. When that time arrives, Hibiscus’s valuations are likely to become overoptimistic as all O&G stocks tend to do during oil upcycles, resulting in valuations far exceeding reasonable estimates of future earnings. If you can hold the shares up until then, it’s likely you will make much more on your investment than what we’ve been estimating.

Conclusion

Wrapping up what we’ve discussed so far, we can conclude that Hibiscus’s market capitalization of RM 714m far undershoots reasonable estimates of fair value even under conservative assumptions of recoverable oil volumes and long-term average oil prices. As a value investor, I hesitate to assign a target share price, but it’s safe to say that this stock is worth at least RM 1.00 (current: RM 0.45). Risk is relatively contained and the upside far exceeds the downside. While I have no opinion on the short-term trajectory of oil prices, I can safely recommend this stock as a long-term Buy based on fundamental research.
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