V tem poglavju bom predstavil možne pripomočke, vitamine in dodatke in razne posege, ki vam lahko pomagajo zmanjšati simptome ali jih upajmo popolnoma odstraniti. Nekateri so lahko dostopni v skoraj vsaki trgovini, nekateri posegi dragi in posameznikom nedostopni, nekateri pa stvar dogovora z vašim osebnim zdravnikom ali specialistom. Naj poudarim, da so to samo priporočila in nikakor ne zamenjava zdravljenja, ki vam ga je predpisal zdravnik. Pred vsako odločitvijo za katerokoli od mojih napisanih priporočil se prej posvetujte z zdravnikom ali farmacevtom. Če se odločite za kakšen dodatek ali vitamin, najprej poizkusite najmanjšo možno dozo in ugotovite, kako vaše telo odreagira na dan dodatek in šele nato povišajte odmerek na dnevno določeno vrednost.
Kar bi vam najprej rad svetoval in kar sem poudaril že v eni izmed prejšnjih tem je, da poslušajte vaše telo, ne pustite, da vas drugi posamezniki ali zdravniki poskušajo prepričati, da z vami ni ničesar narobe in da bodo vaše trenutne težave z zdravjem kar izzvenele. Long covid je resna bolezen, skupek mnogih simptomov, ki lahko popolnoma zmanjša kvaliteto vašega življenja in brez pomoči nikakor ne bo popolnoma izginila.

V nekaterih in seveda v najboljšem primeru je posledica vaših simptomov pomanjkanje nekaterih vitaminov in mineralov in dobra novica je, da ko ugotovite, kaj vam primanjkuje, vzamete ta točno določen vitamin ali mineral in vaših problemov ne bo več. Koronavirusna bolezen namreč močno poveča človekove potrebe po vitaminih, mineralih in ostalih pomembnih dodatkov, zato je vaše telo po preboleli okužbi močno izčrpano. Zato je pomembno, da vašega osebnega zdravnika prepričate, da vam v primeru težav opravi celotno krvno sliko in skupaj ugotovite ali so vaše težave posledice kakšnega pomanjkanja življenjsko potrebnih snovi. In kateri so najpogostejši vitamini ali minerali po katerih večina ljudi poroča izboljšanje simptomov:

● vitamin D (pomemben dodatek že med samo okužbo, veliko ljudi, predvsem starejših ima pomanjkanje le tega, predoziranje le pri zelo visokih dozah)
● magnezij ( olajša težave predvsem tistim, ki imajo težave s krči, živčevjem, utrujenostjo, razmeroma varen kot dodatek)
● vitamin B1 (veliko ljudi poroča izboljšanje simptomov z dodatkom tega vitamina, najbolje v obliki benfothiamin, varen, predoziranje ni mogoče)
● vitamin B3 ( spet, veliko ljudi je poročalo izboljšanje nekaterih simptomov z dodatkom tega vitamina, vendar v obliki nikotinske kisline oz. "flush" niacin, priporočam za začetek zelo mali odmerek okoli 50 g in nato postopno povečanje, saj povzroči neprijeten občutek "pekoče kože" in rdečice, ki traja nekje pol do ene ure, predoziranje ni mogoče)
● vitamin B12 ( še eden izmed serije b vitaminov, pri katerem so z dodajanjem le tega posamezniki popolnoma ozdraveli, razmeroma varen, tudi kadar so vrednosti višje od priporočenih, ponavadi ne povzroča večjih težav)
● železo (predvsem anemični ljudje, ki jim primanjkuje železa so izboljšali svoje simptome z dodatki, vendar je izboljšanje postopno, saj se železo počasi akumulira v telesu kljub dodajanju, priporočeno laboratorijsko spremljanje med postopkom jemanja pripravkov)
● cink ( pomemben že v času aktivne okužbe, priporočena dnevna doza je okoli 30g na dan)
Seveda vrednosti vitaminov v krvi veliko težje dokažemo, saj jih splošne laboratorijske preiskave ne raziščejo, zato lahko sami poizkusite s dodajanjem katerega od teh vitaminov in ugotovite, če se vam vaše težave izboljšujejo. Morate pa vedeti, da to v večini primerov ne bo opazno že prvi dan, ampak v nekaj dneh ali tednih. Drugi vitamini in minerali, ki so nekaterim prinesli izboljšanje so vsi vitamini skupine B (B-komplex), C vitamin, selen, bor, natrij, kalij, K vitamin v kombinaciji s vitaminom D, itd...) Seveda se morate zavedati, da nikoli ne pretiravajte z dodatki in vitamini, ker vam lahko v skrajnem primeru povzročijo poslabšanje simptomov namesto občutnega izboljšanja, kot npr. preveč vitamina B6 lahko povzroči simptome nevropatije ( pekoč ali boleč občutek na telesu ). Vsekakor pa sam mislim, da je v prvi vrsti najvarnejše eksperimentirati ravno s temi dodatki, kot posegati po raznih nepreverjenih zdravilih v upanju, da vam težave magično izginejo.

Zdravljenja oz. postopki, ki vam lahko olajšajo simptome, ki jih doživljate:

● HBOT (hiperbarična komora) je metoda, kjer ste med postopkom "zaprti" v neprodušni komori, kjer dihate čisti kisik, na vas pa deluje pritisk, ki povzroči, da vaš vdihan kisik potisne globlje v tkiva, ki so zaradi bolezni pri normalni izmenjavi kisika ovirane. Po izraelski študiji so sodelujoči v eksperimentu po 40 terapijah z 2 ata pritiska 90 min poročali pomembno izboljšanje predvsem pri simptomih težjega dihanja, utrujenosti ali možganske megle
● akupunktura (tukaj se sicer mnenja krešejo, vendar pa mnogi poročajo o izboljšanju nekaterih simptomov dolgega kovida)
● infrardeča savna ( še en postopek pri katerem lahko izboljšate vaše počutje )
● blokada živcev stelatnih ganglijev ( postopek pri katerem vbrizgajo anestetik v področje vratu pod nadzorom ultrazvoka) je metoda, ki se je vedno več ljudi poslužuje pri izboljšanju simptomov, saj naj bi le ta resetirala avtonomni živčni sistem in prinesla izboljšanje na več področjih, predvsem zmanjšanje anksioznosti in pa disautonomije AŽS, kot je npr. sindrom posturalne ortostatske tahikardije, kjer vam, kadar vstanete iz ležečega ali sedečega položaja srce začne močno pospešeno biti
● masaža

Razni ostali dodatki, ki so po nekaterih podatkih pomagali nekaterim posameznikom:

● L- karnitin
● Kreatinin
● D-riboza
● Glutation
● Nac
● Nadh +
● L- lizin
● Kurkumin
● Alfa lipoična kislina (ALA)
● Omega 3 maščobne kisline
● Nattokinaza
● Resasti bradovec (Lion's mane)
● Melatonin
● Olje divjega origana
● L- glutamin
● Ašvaganda
● Jod
● DLPA
● Tavrin
● CBD olje
● Probiotiki in prebiotiki
● Olje črne kumine
● Ginkgo biloba
● L-arginin
● Tollovid (deluje na podoben način kot zdravilo Paxlovid)
● Kvercetin (naravni antihistaminik)
● Berberin
● Teanin
● Mačji krempelj
● Mucuna
Osebna top izbira med temi dodatki so zagotovo olje črne kumine, probiotiki, omega 3 in pa CBD olje. Še enkrat pa poudarjam, da ne promoviram nobenega izdelka, če se odločite, da preizkusite katerega od naštetih dodatkov, se prej posvetujte s prehrambenim strokovnjakom ali zdravnikom.

Stvari, ki jih lahko storite sami doma:

● DIETA Dieta ima dokazane dobre učinke na vaše telo med samim okrevanjem med to boleznijo, večina prisega na antihistaminsko ali protivnetno dieto, ker daje telesu več možnosti, da se posveti okrevanju. Najpomembnejše stvari, ki se jih boste morali odpovedati so sladkor, alkohol in gluten, nekateri pa odpravijo tudi vse mlečne izdelke z laktozo. Nekateri se lotijo še ekstremnejših diet, kot je npr. samo presna (surova) hrana, keto dieta ali pa samo mesna dieta, kjer jedo samo meso, kar naj bi po nekaterih podatkih "čudežno" pomagalo premagovati avtoimuna obolenja. Sto ljudi, sto čudi, seveda je ma vam, da najdete tisto, ki vam najbolj ustreza in pomaga pri obvladovanju simptomov.
● POSTENJE (FASTING) Posamezniki, ki se lotijo tega, poročajo o splošnem izboljšanju zdravja in umiritvi simptomov. Na splošno je poanta fastinga nekakšen post, kjer je dovoljeno piti samo vodo z dodatki mineralov in vitaminov, brez kančka zaužite trde hrane, kar naj bi dalo telesu čas in energijo, da obnovi mrtve celice, zmanjša vnetja, bolj stabilni hormoni in inzulin itd... Večina poroča izboljšanje simptomov že po 48 urah neprekinjenega posta, čeprav obstajajo lažji načini postenja, ki prav tako lahko prinesejo dobre rezultate. Pred tem postopkov se posvetujte s prehranskim strokovnjakom ali zdravnikom.
● JOGA, TAI-CHI, RAZGIBAVANJE (stretching) Vse to vsekakor pomaga k boljšem počutju in boljši prekrvavitvi telesa. Pazite le, da ne pride do poškodb in pa da to opravljate v okviru svojih zmožnosti, še posebej, če vas muči utrujenost, ker lahko s preveliko količino aktivnosti vaše težave še poglobi.
● POČITEK Najpomembnejši del, ki ga morate izvajati redno, še posebej, če je eden izmed vaših simptomov nenehna utrujenost, boleče telo, občutek teže v telesu, brez energije in šibkost. Počivajte, počivajte in še enkrat počivajte, če je potrebno in mogoče ves dan in noč, dokler težave ne izzvenijo ali se izboljšajo in nato počasi in previdno vsakih nekaj dni dodajajte res manjšo količino dodatnega napora. Ker si resnično ne želite, da se vaša utrujenost razvije v kronično utrujenost. Več si lahko preberete na internetu pod oznako "pacing".
● MISELNE IGRE Predvsem v pomoč ljudem, ki jih muči možganska megla, da z njimi poskušajo "obuditi" kognitivne sposobnosti.
● POGOVOR Z DRUŽINSKIMI ČLANI Pomembno je, da se odkrito pogovorite z njimi, da vas poskušajo razumeti in vam pomagajo v tem vašem težkem obdobju okrevanja. Nekateri izmed vas boste potrebovali pomoč celo pri osnovnih potrebah, kot je pripravljanje obrokov, čiščenje in celo osebna higiena. Prosite jih, naj bodo potrpežljivi, ker spremembe verjetno ne bodo vidne čez noč, verjamem pa, da boste z njihovo pomočjo in vašo vztrajnostjo, obstoječimi in prihajajočimi oblikami zdravljenja ponovno zadovoljni zakorakali v prihodnost
● HLADNA PRHA ( Cold shower ) - metoda, s katero boste zmanjšali vaš stres, okrepili imunski sistem in vsekakor izboljšali vaše splošno počutje. Poskusite, najprej se tuširajte s toplo vodo in na koncu dodajte mrzel tuš, za začetek nekje 30 s, v naslednjih dneh ta čas povečujte.
● VAJE ZA STIMULACIJO VAGUSNEGA ŽIVCA skupina vaj, ki jih lahko izvajate sami doma in ki pripomorejo k stimulaciji živca, ki vpliva na delovanje srca, možganov, črevesja... izvajajte vaje, ki ga umirijo in so lahke in dostopne na youtube platformi npr. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=L1HCG3BGK8I&t=2s

ZDRAVILA Trenutno na voljo ne obstaja ravno velika količina zdravil, še večji pa je problem, ker si strokovnjaki še vedno niso enotni, kaj je v resnici izvorni problem dolgega kovida. Po najnovejših podatkih naj bi se najbolj nagibali k teoriji "vztrajajočega" virusa v telesu ( viral persistence ), kar bi po domače pomenilo, da je virus še vedno dokaj živ v našem telesu, kjer se pridno razmnožuje in nam povzroča kopico problemov, imunski sistem pa ga žal ne zmore locirati in uničiti. Druga teorija so majhni mikrostrdki v krvi, ki preprečujejo dostop kisika v pomembne organe in jih z splošnimi laboratorijskimi izvidi ne moremo dokazati ( trenutno to počno le v laboratoriju v Nemčiji in Afriki ), tretja teorija pa so povišane vrednosti autoantiteles, kar posplošeno pomeni, da se je imunski sistem obrnil proti nam in nas več čas "bombandira" s temi autoantitelesi in napada naše zdravo tkivo ( laboratorij v Nemčiji lahko dokaže povišane vrednosti le teh), po nekaterih podatkih naj bi kar 50 % long covidnih pacientov imelo povišane te vrednosti. Med ostale trpine pa se prištevajo tudi ljudje, ki se jim stanje poboljša z jemanjem dodatkov in vitaminov in pa posamezniki, ki jim je kovid "prebudil" speče bakterije in viruse v telesu, ki so čakali na trenutek, da je imunski sistem zmeden in oslabljen ( candida, EBV, herpes virusi, borelija, citomegalovirus itd...). Seznam testnih zdravil, ki lahko ali ne pomagajo in vam jih lahko predpiše samo zdavnik:

● LDN (low dose Naxeltrone) ali Revia, je eno izmed zdravil, ki se primarno uporablja pri zdravljenje odvisnikov od alkohola. In kaj naj bi to storilo za nas, se sprašujete? Nekako so po "nesreči" ugotovili, da zelo majhne količine tega zdravila, govorim o 2 ali 4,5 mg drugače 50 mg zdravila. Zdravilo poveča raven endorfinov v krvi, kar zmanjša vnetja v telesu in modulira imunski sistem, da ponovno vzpostavi ravnovesje. Predvsem je uporabno za paciente z možgansko meglo in utrujenostjo.
● PREDNISON glukokortikoidno zdravilo, ki zatira delovanje imunskega sistema in zmanjša vnetja v telesu
● LUVOX (Fluvoxamine) antidepresant in je sigma -1 receptor agonist in prav tako pripomore k zmanjšanju vnetja v telesu
● IVERMECTIN kljub temu, da študije niso naklonjene temu zdravilu in vam ga večina zdravnikov ne bo priporočala, je kljub temu dokaj varen in ogromno zadovoljnih uporabnikov, ki jim je po njihovih besedah "magično" pomagal celo popolnoma ozdraveti. Placebo? Presodite sami, res pa je, da v Sloveniji tega zdravila od zdravnika verjetno ne boste dobili
●TRIKOAGULANTNA TERAPIJA poskusno zdravljenje ljudi v prej opisani skupini ljudi, ki imajo v telesu mikro krvne strdke, ki pa jih z našimi mikroskopi ne morejo ugotoviti. V Afriki so opravili študijo manjše skupine pacientov, ki so imeli v krvi te mikrostrdke in so se jih lotili razstapljati s trikoagulantno terapijo, ki vključuje aspirin, Plavix in Eliquis. Po terapiji so poročali izboljšanje vseh simptomov danih udeležencev preiskave
● IMUNOSUPRESIVNA ZDRAVILA zdravila, ki zavirajo delovanje imunskega sistema
● IBUDILAST še eno izmed testnih zdravil, pri katerem so ugotovili izboljšanje nekaterih simptomov pri long covidnih pacientih
● IVIG (intravenozni imunoglubin) so pripravki, narejeni iz protiteles, pridobljenih iz človeške plazme zdravih ljudi
● RAZNA ANTIVIRUSNA ZDRAVILA med katera spadajo predvsem Paxlovid, Molnupiravir, Maraviroc in so v nekaterih primerih pokazala izboljšanje, še posebej, če je gonilo bolezni skriti virusni rezervoar v telesu, vendar pa se pogosto zgodi, da se po prenehanju zdravljenja simptomi vrnejo nazaj.
● ALFA in BETA BLOKATORJI so zdravila, ki znižujejo raven vašega krvnega tlaka in utripa, zdravnik naj vam ga predpiše, če je eden izmed vaših simptomov povišan krvni tlak ali če kažete znake posturalne ortostatske tahikardije ( srčni utrip naraste za 30 utripov kadar vstanete )
● ANTIHISTAMINIKI še ena zanimiva skupina zdravil, ki marsikateremu long covidnemu pacientu olajša trpljenje, še posebej, če je eden izmed njihovih simptomov bolezni mastocitoza, kar na splošno pomeni alergija ( sproščanje histamimov v krvi ). Poznamo dve vrsti antihistaminikov: H1 antihistaminiki: claritin, aerius, allegra, zyrtec H2 antihistaminiki: Famotidine, ranitidine, tagamet
● KLORFENAMIN je H1 antihistaminik, posebej poglavje tukaj pa si je prislužil, ker so mnogi poročali močno izboljšanje simptomov na vseh področjih, 4 mg dnevno zvečer, ker ima blažji sedativni učinek.

OSTALA PREIZKUSNA ZDRAVLJENJA

● PLAZMAFEREZA postopek pri katerem iz krvi odstranijo del plazme, namenjen naj bi bil predvsem tistim long covidnim pacientom, ki imajo presežek autoantiteles v krvi, potrebno je večkratna ponovitev postopka.
● IMUNOADSORPCIJA postopek, ki ga opravljajo samo v Nemčiji, pri katerem celotno krvno plazmo prečistijo vseh autoantiteles in s tem izboljšajo ali odpravijo večino simptomov, slaba stran je invazivnost preiskave in cena, ki se giblje okoli 14000 eurov + ostali stroški, saj je potrebno preiskavo ponoviti petkrat v 10 dneh.
● HELP-AFEREZA še eden izmed postopkov "pranja" krvi, pri katerem pa se osredotočajo odstranitvi mikrokrvnih strdkov iz krvi, vendar moram poudariti, da je postopek drag in uspešen le v manjšem odstotku.
● BC007 James Bond med potencialnimi zdravili za long covidne bolnike, vendar še vedno v postopku preizkusov. Z njim so uspešno pozdravili pet kovidnih pacientov, kar se sliši malo, vendar vseeno 100% uspešnost, res pa je, da se je pri enem od pacientov bolezen vrnila, ker se je ponovno okužil. Deluje tako, da se veže na autoantitelesa v krvi in jih uniči. Trenutno vseeno najbolj obetajoče zdravilo tako za long covidne paciente kot tiste, ki trpijo za kronično utrujenostjo.
● RSLV-132 še eno zdravilo v poizkusni fazi podobno BC007, ki je tudi v drugi fazi preizkusov v Ameriki
Seveda sem zagotovo pozabil pripisati katerega od zdravil ali dodatkov, ki jih ljudje in strokovnjaki po svetu preizkušajo, da bi izboljšali pacientovo kvaliteteto življenja, vsak mesec prihajajo podatki o novih zdravilih, ki jih razvijajo, zato srčno upam, da bodo kmalu na voljo učinkovita zdravljenja za vse oblike dolgega kovida, kajti tisti, ki ta trenutek trpijo zaradi te zahrbtne bolezni dobro vedo, kako pomembno je zdravje in kako uničujoča je bolezen. Upam, da vam bo katera od teh stvari pomagala izboljšati, preprečiti ali celo pozdraviti katerega od vaših simptomov te bolezni, seveda še enkrat poudarjam, da so to le smernice, pred postopki ali jemanjem zdravil in dodatkov se le posvetujte s strokovnjaki, ker si nobeden ne želi, da se vam stanje še poslabša. Želim vam čimprejšnje okrevanje, za razna vprašanja pa bom vedno dosegljiv.

Because there is no barriers to being a trader. Want to start trading? Sure! Find a random broker and deposit minimum 10 dollars to start trading forex, stocks, options and futures.
Want to be a doctor? 7 years of med school minimum. Want to be a dentist? 4 years of dentistry school. Want to be a lawyer? Pass the bar exam. Want to be an engineer of any sorts? Get an engineering degree in 3-4 years. Want to be a blue collar worker? At least go for an apprenticeship for 6-12 months minimum.
Why do 90% of traders fail? Because there is no barrier to entry and all the shitheads think they are gonna make it like they did on their 100000% ROI demo account.
Stop dreaming and put in effort and you might have a chance at not getting margin called.

I've been learning about forex and trading in general for a while now and I have reached a dead end. Some guidance would be very helpful.
In trading, it seems like almost every content creator is out there trying to rip you off. Time becomes irrelevant and you would waste 6-12 months before realizing that you're listening to the wrong person.
What I can't wrap my head around is how 90% of the content out there revolves around technical analysis and some basic fundamentals. But what about economic models and trying to make sense of the market data using quantitative measures to get an actual directional bias that would guide your thought process?
It seems like everyone is just talking about support/resistance and double bottoms and whatever. But these things aren't quantifiable. How can you base your entire forex career on speculative and baseless principles?
Backtesting strategies that rely on some random indicators and lines without using economics or finances to derive your decision is pretty much another way of saying gambling, to me at least.
I have looked more into trading and how it's actually done, and I was informed that getting certificates like the CFA, FRM, CMT, and learning about data analytics would be the best way to go about doing this.
My question is
Am I in the wrong here? And if so, how do you guys see Forex, and is it worth pursuing as a career rather than starting a business?

This post will teach you the basics of how to properly conceptualize options in your mind.

It will then teach you how to translate the idea of what an option is into what you see in your brokerage.

I say this because if you want to trade options, you need to firstly understand and be able to conceptualize what an option is. As traders we are trying to create a sustainable way to generate returns on our time and capital. Just like any other business, we need to first understand the product we are working with. This post goes over the basics.

Simply put, options are a financial instrument.

They are not a strategy. They are not inherently better than stocks, or futures, or forex, or bonds.
They serve a particular purpose in the market, just like each of the others.
The reason many smart retail traders are attracted to options is because of what they give you exposure to.
Or more simply put*: the different ways you can make money trading them.*
As you dive deeper into the product, you will come to realize that they are an extremely versatile product that can let you express almost any view or idea you have in the market. They are pretty cool.
But in order to dive deep into options, you first need to be able to conceptualize what an option is. Let's get started.

There are 6 characteristics of an option.

Regardless of what option you are trading, they all have the same 6 characteristics that define them.
These characteristics are:

An option is a contract
Created between two people
That gives the purchaser the right to buy or sell a stock
At a set price
In a set time frame
For a premium

These 6 characteristics will help you conceptualize what an option is and how it works. Let's break them down!

1) An option is a contract..

When you buy or sell an option, you are not trading the stock itself. The options market is actually separate from the stock market. When you trade in the stock market, you are actually exchanging a piece of the company with others. But in the options market, when you make a trade, you are creating a contract.

2) Created between two people..

Most people think about option trading as "them VS the market". They aren't really wrong when saying that, because the market determines the prices of the options you see, but I do think people internalize that wrong.
When a we say it's "you VS the market", it's not the same as "you VS the house" at a casino.
You see, trading is not like blackjack, where all the players sit down and play against the casino.
Rather, it is more like poker, where all the players are playing against each other at the same table, betting on the events that will be unfolding.
So whenever you are placing a trade, if you break a market down to it's micro transactions, there is actually someone on the other side of that trade.
In the options market, there are two players in every transaction: The person who writes/creates the contract (seller) and the person who purchases the contract (buyer).
Whether you are the buyer or the seller, there are many different players that could be on the other side of your option contract, but we will save that for another post.

3) That gives the purchaser the right to buy or sell a stock..

The contract that the option buyer purchases gives them the right to buy or sell a stock.
This also means that by selling an option, you have an obligation to fill the order if the buyer chooses to exercise the contract.

4) At a set price..

In the options world, this is called the strike price. So for example, you might buy an option contract from someone that gives you the right to buy Apple stock at $160.
This is written into the contract. Different contracts will have different strike prices.
Now let's stop and think about this for a second. Would it make sense for an option contract to go on forever? If they did, it wouldn't really make sense to sell them (you'd have a lifetime of risk, for one time pay!).
So that brings us to the next characteristic of an option.

5) In a set time frame..

Options don't last forever. The contracts have a deadline, at which time they expire. Going back to our Apple example, you might buy an option contract that gives you the right to buy Apple at $160 in the next 30 days.
But there is one more thing we need to take into consideration. We know why someone would buy an option now. It gives them the right to buy or sell stock, at a set price, within some timeframe..
But why would anyone sell an option? Why would someone give you that right?

6) For a premium!

Purchasing options is not free. The reason someone would sell an option is because they get paid to do it.
So if we revisit our (hypothetical) Apple example, this is what the full picture would look like:
You could buy an option contract from someone that gives you the right to buy Apple at $160 in the next 30 days for a price of $10.

Now that we can visualize what an option looks like, let's learn some industry lingo.

Let's turn the picture we created into what it actually looks like when you are looking at the options market.

1. Contract = option chain.

You go into your brokerage to see it. It is literally a list of all the different contracts you can trade for a stock. When you want to buy or sell a contract, you come here and you pick the one you want to buy or sell.

https://preview.redd.it/v4cagtzprx2a1.png?width=2626&format=png&auto=webp&s=2d4dcde996618a7768dc7c559266da56048cf37e

2. Two people = bid/ask.

The way you can really understand that there is someone on the other side of you trade is the bid and ask. these are the prices that someone is willing to either buy a contract at (bid) or sell a contract at (ask). Every contract has a bid and an ask price.
Think of it like you are standing in a market, and someone is standing there saying "ill buy an apple contract for 1 dollar" and someone else is there saying "ill sell an apple contract for $2".
If you want to buy an option, you engage with the person on the ask side. If you want to sell an option, you engage with the person on the bid side. And sometimes, someone might actually meet you in the middle if you try to buy or sell somewhere in between those two price!
The buyers and sellers act as supply and demand for the contract, and depending on the buying and selling pressure, that's how we get the "market price" for the contract!

https://preview.redd.it/ospymawsrx2a1.png?width=2624&format=png&auto=webp&s=f4038ac9481ae53fa7ae3a3f5db3a6453e618b63

3. Right to buy, right to sell = calls and puts.

A call is what we call an option contract that gives the buyer the right to buy a stock.
A put is what we call an option contract that gives the buyer the right to sell a stock.
On most brokerage set ups, the left side of the option chain will be the calls and the right side will be the puts.

https://preview.redd.it/1eouf5avrx2a1.png?width=2620&format=png&auto=webp&s=19514ec8a76e7065feb5cb0f6887351814d5a8ef

4. A given price = strike price

When you look at an option chain, each row is different contract that is listed. Each of these contracts that you see will have a number in the middle of the chain. $115, $120, $125... etc.
These are the prices that the contract gives the buyer the right to get the stock at! Each contract has a different stock price that the contract is based on.
Each strike price is the price you have the right to buy/sell the stock at for the options on that row.

https://preview.redd.it/luxqf8oxrx2a1.png?width=2626&format=png&auto=webp&s=2d997e70b3363f26eb55cddb36ddd24004c0ada6

5. Time frame = expiration date

Not all option contracts expire at the same time. Depending on the stock, you could have options that expire in 1 day, 7 days, 30 days... 2 years.. the list goes on.
When you look at the option chain, you will see that there are a bunch of different contracts listed under different dates. The date you see are the expirations for those contracts!
When you select the expiration you want to look at, it will open up the list of all the options expiring on that date.

https://preview.redd.it/1cwhdyvzrx2a1.png?width=2622&format=png&auto=webp&s=1969d0619c151ca2f833ff331c2d4a8ac2e82568

6. Premium = Price

For each contract, there is a price associated with them. The price what someone is either willing to buy or sell the contracts for! Where do you see the price on the option chain? Well, it's the bid and the ask! You can see how much someone is willing to pay for a contract, or how much someone is willing to sell it for, right on your brokerage.
There is a lot that goes into pricing options, but for now, all you need to remember is that options are not free. There is a price associated with them.
Imagine you are standing in a marketplace. The bid is like someone else standing there looking to buy a call option for (as in the below picture) $11.90.
The ask is someone else in the marketplace saying that they will sell that same option for $12.60.
There is a gap between what the buyer wants to pay and what the seller will accept. You can sometimes purchase or sell in the middle of these two by making an offer in the middle! Trying to get something for the best price is what we call "working your order".

https://preview.redd.it/nfjs0v04sx2a1.png?width=2616&format=png&auto=webp&s=50bce48ba2faa842c953968a31a86c7bc5b72377

Conclusion

So let's recap the 6 characteristics of what an option is by writing out a sentence for our Apple example.
You want to buy a call on Apple's option chain that lets you buy Apple at a strike price of $160. The contract will expire in December 2021. There is someone willing to sell it to you at the "ask" price for that contract, for a premium of $15.
I hope this post makes it clear what an option contract is. With this as a basic understanding of how the product functions, we can move forward into some of the intricacies related to the product and the opportunities that they create.
Happy trading,
~ A.G.

Since I'm getting tagged below a lot of posts, I'll explain this very briefly until I get a better handle on what's going to happen.

https://preview.redd.it/wl3ehuxxv1z91.png?width=1400&format=png&auto=webp&s=bea2220193e8a7f867ff422a412fbbfab9ca4e1b
Tokenized GME is now on a VERY volatile exchange.
It was trading mainly on DeFiChain DEX and FTX.
Decentralized (DEX) and Centralized (CEX)
80-90% of the volume was GME/USD on FTX. Centralized exchange. Nice and stable.
Since FTX is fucked, 100% of the volume is now on DeFiChain. Decentralized.
It now trades against DUSD instead of USD.
DUSD is unstable
Don't get too excited about price movements. It was easier to convert and affect USD based stocks before. Now, it has to be converted to USD to make that happen, which adds another layer to the equation. FOREX markets
DUSD = Decentralized United States Dollar
USD = United States Dollar

https://preview.redd.it/d1tyzq9nw1z91.png?width=964&format=png&auto=webp&s=ba1b91b20426563849172de3434c5d17392a1156
I'm working on a massive post to explain a lot of this and a lot of what I've found recently. It will be at least another week. Enjoy the show in the meantime.
Teasers:
- FTX is definitely not the only one going down
- This is WAY beyond crypto
I'M RETARDED! DON'T YOU DARE FUCKING LISTEN TO ME, OR ASSUME IN ANY WAY THAT THIS IS SOME SORT OF FINANCIAL ADVICE!

Hey, I observe this industry from the sidelines and even tried to pass prop firm challenges a couple of times. Did it twice - passed the first stage, and blew the accounts during the second.
What's different in my situation is that I earn money writing about trading, as a financial journalist, so for the last two years, I've had plenty of time to do research and learn. I did the work people with normal 9-5 jobs do in decades (that's no joke, I've seen plenty examples like this), because I was, more or less, forced to. And here is the thing: the more I know, the less realistic gaining an edge in the markets is. I don't take seriously people that say that "they are profitable", because the company I work for tries to find scams on the daily basis. We hear that someone made money, yet there is no never any reliable proof. If there is a proof, it is fabricated (there is a simple way to produce fake results on one of the popular platforms - if someone is not knowledgeable, that's the way to go, he will fall for it and buy your course).
You may ask - why won't you become Forex guru then? Well, that is obvious - I am not a thief.
But the funny thing is, most of the people seem to believe it. Everyday I see someone claiming that making 10% in 30 days during the prop challenge, is "really easy" or "not easy, yet achievable", while in reality, that's pure insanity. Majority of pro fund managers don't beat the market, and we are talking about Ivy League guys. If it comes to actively managed funds, they lose most of the times. If you do make 10% per months and can sustain it, you would trade for Goldman in no time.
But if it comes to prop challenges, you have to make 100%. Yes - 100% of your drawdown, then, if you risk "only 1% per trade", in reality, you are risking 10% of your account per single trade and 10 losses in a row is not something that happens rarely. Actually, you need to lose only 5% of your "account" and 50% (!) of your drawdown, to find yourself in a terrible situation. Now, you have to make 100% to go back to square one and then - make another 100% of that to pass the challenge. It has nothing to do with real prop trading. It is gambling and people, who pass, do it by sheer luck. I know it, because I've passed phase I two times.
Therefore, I am starting to lose hope that it is really possible at all.
Some claim that they've passed and sustained the accounts with "Smart Money Concepts", yet I am not stupid enough to believe in what ICT is saying. His setups are re-named, retail technical analysis and IPDA is one, big conspiracy theory. There is no proof that the decentralized Forex works like this. Financial illiteracy and not giving a shit about market structure (I'm not talking price structure here) makes people think, that they "trade with the banks". They don't know what real Market Marking is. They don't know how HFTs work and that majority of institution's trades are not directional and have so called "delta neutral".
I would just like to know if there are people who think like me, yet they are actually trading with these props. Gained an edge and somehow, they make a living out of it for some time. I'm writing this because markets always fascinated me and I love doing research, trying to understand them. Yet knowing how they work and having an edge are two, separate things and sometimes I think, that it is just not possible at all, and we are all nothing but fools.
PART II
I've decided to write a quick part II of the original post, because I think that it might be complementary.
As you may know or not, financial journaling is full of failed/developing traders or investors (from what I remember, Tom Dante was a journalist back in the days and he might be some kind of exception here). It's not about me, I am fresh there and achieved nothing special so far. It's about the other people. Almost all of them have really big experience with trading/investing. While I was entering this space, I was almost sure, that I will find many profitable traders here. Yet I've found no one trading for a living or no one that could provide any reliable proof.
And here is my point - if these are the people that live and breathe the markets - writing news articles, doing macro researches and constantly learning and so on, yet they could not make it as traders, what are the chances, that a normal guy will achieve this? Living a normal life and treating trading as a hobby?
Do you think that these guys don't know SM Concepts? That they never used Fibonacci? That you have some secret that they don't know? They educate traders, teaching them about the interest rates and central bank policies. Some of them take these ICT teachings, repack it and write about it, and they learn it during the process. Do you think they are mentally retarded and can't use it themselves? Can't backtest? Can't draw order block or apply simple logic to the chart? Most of you will dislike it, because it is challenging your dream, but I don't mean to be negative. If all of this is negative, it's negative for me first and foremost, because after all this work, I am exhausted and I've learned many useless things, just to end up nowhere so far.
At first, I thought that I am better than anyone else. As I said, I've made my first money on the betting exchange and I was pretty good at it. Mechanics was basically similar to the Futures market. 90% of the people there were losing traders as well, and I was one of the few, so I thought that it will be the same on the financial market. Yet it was not. It is different kind of market. As close to efficiency, as it is possible, and I am simply not sure, if there is any inefficiency that can be exploited by humans in the short term. And that is really sad, because I wasn't there for money, but for the game. I've seen charts as some kind of complicated puzzles and still try to see them that way, but there is the risk I can't ignore anymore - that there is no mystery in this. Just chaos, that to the imperfect, human eye, seems orderly. "Fugazi!", as Mark Hanna said. Fairy dust.
EDIT:
The second part of this post just got banned. See? They just don't want you to know. Sleep, and while you are asleep - lose more money so the industry can eat ;)

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https://preview.redd.it/2ipcxmuhmg4a1.png?width=1000&format=png&auto=webp&s=2069814be932ddf8b869718661dea0d6310e186b
This article was taken from my blog www.trading-methods.com
In this article, I will show you the best swing trading indicators and how you can use them to trade for a consistent income.

How does Swing Trading work?

Let’s take a look at the swing trading method before we start the analysis. Swing Trading is a trading strategy that consists of different strategies and habits which share some common characteristics closely associated with the period in trading. While mainly used in forex and shares trading, crypto has the potential for other uses. Using swing trading you can have a position open for a few days/weeks if the trend continues to your advantage. The traders will likely close their positions if trends reverse themselves.

Table of content

Best Swing Trading Indicators

I have compiled the best swing trading indicators that stand out for their simplicity and efficiency of trading signals. However, it’s worth mentioning that they can by no means guarantee you constant profits. This is mainly due to the fact that technical indicators don’t predict the future, but help you to better understand the present and the past Here are the most popular and reliable technical indicators used in swing trading.
Swing Trading Works Before getting more in-depth with analyzing the best indicators for swing trading, let’s go back to the swing trading process. Swing trading is a trading style that comprises various strategies and behaviors that share some common aspects closely related to the time of a trade.

Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)

The MACD is a trend indicator, i.e. it shows you when a trend change in a stock is imminent.
MACD is a momentum indicator oscillator.
Whether it’s going to break out to the upside or to the downside. When you first add the MACD to your chart, it looks like the picture below.

Now it’s important that you don’t change these settings unless you have a specific reason to do so. We know that swing trading and day trading are often about self-fulfilling prophecies. What I mean by this is that often many swings or day traders see the same pattern at the same time and use that pattern to enter the trade.
If enough traders do this at the same time, they create enough buying pressure to drive the stock higher and create a self-fulfilling feedback loop.
You should always use the default settings 12, 26, and 9 because the point of these indicators is that you see what everyone else sees too
let’s dive a little deeper into what the MACD actually is. The MACD calculates by subtracting the 26-EMA from the 12-EMA (exponential moving average) and creating a constantly updated line that resembles a moving average).

Swing trading indicators

Also, a 9-day EMA add to the MACD line to indicate buy or sell signals. The most common way to use MACD as a swing trading indicator is to look for divergences or a crossing of the center line of the histogram.
At least, in theory, MACD indicates buying opportunities when it crosses above zero,
when it crosses below zero it indicates selling or shorting opportunities.
if you’re looking for a simple swing trading strategy for beginners, you can essentially wait for the red bars to cross and become green bars, then enter a trade and buy when that happens.
it shows you that the stock has a lot of power and momentum.

What does the MACD tell you?

The MACD consider one of the best swing trading indicators, but you need to understand how to use it and what it tells you.
I see a lot of people using it in a way that’s too simple
if it was as simple as I just described it.
if it was as simple as I just described it and you just bought a stock every time it changed from red to green, we’d all be billionaires right now.
That’s not the case, of course.
So what the MACD tells you from a more advanced perspective is that it tells you the change in momentum of a stock.
when the Moving Average Convergence Divergence shows the difference between a 12-period moving average and a 26-period moving average), it’s always greater than zero.
it’s just telling you that the most recent asset’s price change, the 12-day price movement,
is stronger than the 26-day price movement before that, so simply put, it’s showing you that the stock is gaining momentum.
Recent asset’s price action is stronger than in the past, if the green bars keep growing and getting bigger,
it shows you that the stock is getting even stronger and the momentum for swing trading is increasing,
i.e. that you can catch the momentum.
this is really one of the best swing trading indicators I use regularly.

Is MACD good for swing trading?

Moving average convergence varies between trading platforms. This tool helps identify new patterns of behavior, be that bullish or bearish. Because the trading of the trend is the most important strategy.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The next swing trading indicator discussed in this article is the relative strength index (rsi).
The RSI developed by J. Wells Wilder is actually a momentum oscillator that simply measures the speed and change of price movements.
Swing traders prefer this indicator because it quickly detects a trend, the overbought and oversold levels. The rsi traditionally fluctuates between 0 and 100. the rsi is considered overbought when it’s above 70 and oversold when it’s below 30. Signals are generated by looking for divergences and breakdowns.
RSI can use to identify the general trend

UP Trend

In an uptrend or bull market, the RSI tends to stay in the 40 to 90 range, with the 40 to 50 range typically acting as support.

Down Trend

During a downtrend or bear market, the rsi tends to stay between 10 and 60, with the 50 or 60 zones serving as resistance.
These ranges vary depending on your settings and the strength of the underlying trend of the stock or market.
Usually, people use RSI as a kind of warning sign: If the stock is very high,
it probably can’t go any higher because it’s overbought.
On the other hand, if the RSI of a stock is super low, say at 20 or 30,
then the RSI is so oversold that it may be wise to buy the stock before the reversal.
A better way to use the RSI is to look for discrepancies between the indicator and the actual price movement of the stock.

RSI discrepancy

A Relative strength index discrepancy occurs when a stock price rises but the rsi falls. It can also occur the other way around when a stock price is falling and the rsi is rising.
This discrepancy in the rsi of the stock price is a pretty strong signal that something isn’t quite right.
if the price of stock continues to rise, but the rsi, which actually measures the momentum indicator,
is falling, this trend obviously cannot continue.
RSI uses volume and buying pressure to predict fluctuations and momentum.

Volume weighted average price (VWAP)

The next technical indicator we’ll look at is the VWAP.
One of the best indicators to learn is, It’s usually used for day trading,
but I also use it regularly for swing trading.
the volume-weighted average price (VWAP) is a trading indicator calculated by multiplying the number of shares purchased by the share price and then dividing by the total number of shares purchased.
basically, it shows the average price of a stock based on the volume traded at a given price. It’s usually calculated and displayed on your chart within a one-day time frame and looks similar to a moving average), although it’s a much slower and lagging indicator.

Many swing traders use the strategy of buying the stock if it closes the day above the VWAP,
and selling or shorting the stock if it closes the day below the VWAP.
As a swing trading indicator, it’s important to understand swing trading indicators that the VWAP often acts as a support and resistance level.
When it acts as a support line, it means that stock often falls to the VWAP,
hits the outlook up, then bounces off it and goes back up, finding support at that line.
On the other hand, if a stock is trending up, it’ll sometimes go up to the VWAP, but then not be able to break through it
If a stock is above the VWAP for an extended period of time,
that’s a very good sign of strength and could be an indication that we should buy the stock for a swing trade if there are also other positive indicators that we can use.

Simple moving averages (SMA)

A simple moving average) is a technical indicator or tool,
that tracks the price of a security over a period of time and plots it on a line.
This essentially “smooths out” price fluctuations, giving an investor a general idea of where the trend is going.
Using simple moving averages to determine trends can help an investor better identify buy and sell signals.
To create a simple moving average chart, first, choose a time frame. A frame can be any period of time – such as a day, a week, or even a month. For this example, we define a time period as a day.
We create a moving average using a 20-day chart. We take the prices of each day and add them together. Then we divide that number by our time frame, which in this case is 20.
This gives us today’s 20-day average price,
which is a short-term moving time frame that can be used by active traders.
To create a moving average, each day we omit the last day in the time frame and add today.
A 20-day moving average can help determine short-term uptrends, downtrends, and sideways trends.
By looking at a security’s moving average in relation to its current price, you can identify potential buy signals.

SMA Example

For example, if a price breaks an upward-moving average, it could mean it’s a good time to buy a stock.
Another buy signal could be a support bounce.
This is when the moving average of a security serves as a support level for the price.
If the price falls to the moving average and then rises again, this can be used as a buy signal.
Conversely, moving averages can help investors identify when to sell a position.
For example, if the price of a stock rises to the moving average and then bounces back, this can be a sell signal.
Looking at a simple moving average over a short-term time frame can be very helpful, but it also has its drawbacks.

SMA Whipsaws

One thing to be aware of is whipsaws. A whipsaw is when the stock crosses the moving average, which gives a signal, and then quickly reverses, which gives the opposite signal.
A short-term time frame, such as 20 days, usually indicates more swings, which is why some investors prefer to use medium- and long-term time frames.
For example, medium-term charts with a 50-day SMA show a smoother average and have fewer buy and sell signals.
As a result, investors can stay in a trade longer. Long-term trends, like those of a 200-day SMA, are even smoother.
Consequently, these types of moving average lines react quickly to the price changes of securities.
This is helpful for active traders who want to place short-term trades.
It’s also important to know that moving averages don’t predict future trends but only confirm established trends.
Despite these drawbacks, moving averages are a powerful technical analysis tool that you can use to determine trends and identify buy and sell signals.

Understanding the limitations of swing trading indicators

The indicators for trading in this article are a good starting point. Trading indicator indicators aren’t superior to most technical analyses and are never considered the holy grail. It cannot guarantee that the profits that are produced by trading indicators will be rewarded. These are some factors that affect a trader’s success in swing trading.
Swing traders operate with larger timeframes, they are not interested in short-term price volatility the same as day traders do. For swing traders, the only thing that matters is that swing highs go higher in a bullish market while swing lows go lower in a bearish market.

Final Thoughts

I have highlighted some of the best indicators for swing trading in this article.
Within the context of financial markets, Price patterns and trends based on historical performance are then used to identify signals according to things like market sentiment and psychology.
Most traders use swing trading as their most common trading style along with day trading and position trading.
It is usually used in the daily chart and larger timeframes. For beginners, this trading style is less intimidating as it’s less hectic than day trading but comfortable enough to profit from price fluctuations. Traders who prefer this type of trading style usually rely on swing trading indicators, as it’s important for them to show the support and resistance levels when the trend changes.

Happy Tuesday, Barkada --

The PSE gained 68 points to 6355 ▲1.1%

Thanks to Spyfrat's Call for the meme appreciation, and to Jing for the trauma bonding over our unmet DDMPR expectations.
There is a lot of reading for me to do on the quarterly earnings reports, and I will definitely be taking a deeper dive on a few stocks (like MONDE) over the coming days. Let me know if there are any stocks that you'd like to see covered and I'll see what I can do!
Shout-outs to rethon-ji, John, Stephen Chiong, Makisig Tan, Pao, Jonathan Burac, Just’n, LanAustria, CubicTrade, Palaboy Trader, mArQo, arkitrader, Lance Nazal, Grumpy Trader, Chip Sillesa, Dividend Pinoy | PGG, Rolex Jodieres, leaf, and Jing for the retweets, and to Padilla GJ, Genesis Umali, Evolves.co and Mike Ting for the FB shares!

▌In today's MB:

DITO forex losses climb to ₱6-B in Q3
PSE: Twenty companies seeking Q3 reporting deadline extension
MREIT declares slightly lower Q3 div
Phoenix Petroleum Q3 profit ▼1,051% y/y

▌Daily meme | Subscribe (it's free) | Today's email

▌Main stories covered:

[Q3] DITO forex losses climb to ₱6-B in Q3... DITO CME [DITO 2.81 ▼2.09%] [link] reported Q3 profit down 88% y/y, and down 28% q/q, to a net loss of ₱11 billion. DITO’s 9M profit is down 174% y/y to a net loss of ₱26 billion, driven largely by the degrading value of the Philippine Peso relative to the US Dollar, and the unrealized foreign exchange losses that DITO has accumulated on its huge outstanding dollar-denominated debts. DITO noted ₱2.9 billion in unrealized forex losses in Q1, ₱4.4 billion in Q2, and now another ₱6 billion in Q3, for a total of ₱13.3 billion since the start of the year. DITO said that it had 13.1 million subscribers at the end of Q3 (up 36% from Q2), and that they generated an average revenue per user (ARPU) of ₱77.3 per month. The ARPU figure is down 4.6% from DITO’s H1/22 ARPU of ₱81/month. DITO’s current ratio (current assets / current liabilities) at the end of Q3 was 0.02. For reference, DITO’s competitors, Globe [GLO 2212.00 ▼3.83%] and SMART [TEL 1544.00 ▲0.92%] have current ratios that bounce between 0.33 and 0.45.

MB: In the management discussion and analysis section of the financial statements, DITO’s management says that “despite its reported capital deficiency, management is confident that [DITO] can continue as a going concern as management believes that [DITO’s] ability to continue as a going concern is dependent upon its ability to generate sufficient cash flows to meet its maturing obligations.” It’s kind of a weird wording. Maybe I’m being too picky, but it feels like DITO’s management is not explicitly stating that they believe they will generate enough cash flow to meet maturing obligations, only that they believe that DITO’s ability to avoid bankruptcy will depend on its ability to do that. It’s true that their subscriber count is growing quite quickly, but the amount of revenue that they’re getting from each of those subscribers is low and going lower over time. Sure, GLO’s ARPU was only about ₱80/month for 88 million subscribers, and TEL’s ARPU was about ₱106/month for 68 million subscribers. And those are fully mature businesses that have already built out their initial networks. The point is that it’s not like DITO just has to survive for a few more years before it passes through some magical barrier where costs fall dramatically and profits start to skyrocket. Once the initial build-out is done, it’s still going to need to have a significant yearly budget for capex to keep pace and keep growing. It’s low-cost strategy is going to keep its ARPU low, which will suppress revenues. That debt isn’t going anywhere. And while Udenna and China have “committed” to infuse additional capital into Dito Tel, Dennis Uy’s companies are bleeding out the ears, so it’s not like there’s a cash cow in the group that can serve as a gold farm for Udenna’s portion of that commitment.

[Q3] Twenty companies now seeking a Q3 earnings report deadline extension... The list of companies that are seeking deadline extensions from the PSE exploded in size yesterday, as the PSE’s deadline for submission of Q3 earnings reports came and went. There are now 20 companies that are unable to comply with the PSE’s reporting requirements, up from just eight the day before. COL Financial [COL 3.17 unch] (still consolidating) and CTS Global [CTS 0.86 ▼1.15%] (more time to finalize and get approvals) started the request fest last week, followed by National Reinsurance [NRCP 0.64 ▼1.54%] (still reviewing and finalizing), LBC Express [LBC 16.10 unch] (still reviewing data), TKC Metals [T 0.51 ▼1.92%] (still finalizing financial statements), STI Education [STI 0.32 ▼1.54%] (skeleton administrative crews hit by dengue and COVID outbreaks), Benguet Corp [BC 4.05 ▼3.57%] (still writing management’s discussion section), and Haus Talk [HTI 0.83 ▼2.35%] (still finalization and consolidating). Then, yesterday, we saw applications filed by SOCResources [SOC 0.47 unch] (still finalizing), ATN Holdings [ATN 0.36 unch] (accounting department needs time), Cirtek [TECH 2.46 ▲0.41%] (still reviewing data), Vantage Equities [V 0.73 unch] (finalizing data and getting signatures), Manila Bulletin [MB 0.39 ▲4.00%] (still reviewing data and getting signatures), Alsons Consolidated [ACR 0.79 ▲1.28%] (still finalizing and getting approvals), Transpacific Broadband Group [T 0.51 ▼1.92%]BGI (accountant needs more time), Central Azucarera de Tarlac [CAT 9.50 unch] (still reviewing data), Steniel Manufacturing [STN suspended] (needs more time), AgriNurture [ANI 7.69 ▼0.26%] (still reviewing data), Greenergy [GREEN 1.63 ▼0.61%] (still reviewing data), and Manila Mining [MA 0.01 unch] (communication problems with Surigao del Norte). All of the companies committed to submitting proper financial reports on or before November 21.

MB: Delays happen because life is unpredictable and chaotic, and any accountant (or person married to an accountant) will tell you that preparation and consolidation of financial statements is something that is difficult to rush. You can’t just wander down into the harshly-lit, under-decorated accounting department and say things like “WORK HARDER!” There is only so much time you can make up with additional overtime hours or temp workers. So, on some level, I am understanding when things come up and conspire to make for a delay. As a default though, as an investor, I start by looking at a request for an extension as a failure of process. A failure to schedule the resources needed to do the things that you need to do, in the timeframe that you need to do them. Sometimes a delay is because there’s been a huge transaction (like an acquisition or sale) close to the reporting deadline, but that kind of event is usually pretty obvious and is something that we all know can’t be solved by “process” alone. That said, the vast majority of the “reasons” given to justify an extension here boil down to some tautological version of “we need more time to finish the reports because the reports aren’t finished yet.” Only STI seemed to provide a detailed outline of the circumstances that conspired to cause its delay, in such a way that could allow an investor to gain comfort that the management team seems to understand the problem well enough to prevent it from happening in the future.

[NOTES] Quick takes from around the market...

MREIT [MREIT 11.90 ▼0.50%] [link] MREIT declared a Q3/22 dividend of ₱0.2444, payable on December 15 to shareholders of record as of November 25. The dividend has an annualized yield of 8.22% based on the previous closing price, which is -0.97% smaller than Q3's pre-dividend annualized yield of 8.3%. Relative to MREIT's IPO price, the dividend increased MREIT's total stock and dividend return to -18.55%, up from its pre-dividend total return of -20.06%.

MB Quick Take: C-c-c-combo breaker! While it’s only a slight step back, the lower div breaks MREIT’s streak of dividend increases that started back in Q1 of this year. MREIT’s net income was down almost 7% q/q, and shareholders still aren’t getting the benefit of the dividend-increasing property-for-share swap that MREIT and Megaworld [MEG 2.12 ▲2.91%] negotiated in April; the transaction is on-hold, awaiting approval from the SEC.

Phoenix Petroleum [PNX 8.49 unch] [link] Q3 profit ▼1051% y/y (▼761% q/q) to a net loss of ₱0.95 billion. 9M profit ▼734% y/y to net loss of ₱1.1 billion. PNX said that its liquified natural gas trading business was the “bright spot” in its portfolio, increasing 11% q/q with strong demand in both Viet Nam and the Philippines. Otherwise, PNX said that the “exceedingly challenging macroeconomic backdrop” of volatile oil markets, inflation, peso weakness, higher interest rates, and lower demand, caused its domestic fuel volume to “sharply drop” (-44%) and its overseas trading desk to “take a breather” (-35%).

MB Quick Take: PNX is just a gasoline reseller, so it lives and dies by demand for gas and its ability to monetize access to that gas. Unfortunately for PNX, the price of gas increased dramatically during the year, and demand for that gas has dropped off a cliff. That’s a terrible combination for a business that relies on volume and site visits to keep revenues cycling and keep stations profitable. Sentiment seems to be that oil prices are headed for $100/barrel again soon, and that “upside” risk is growing, so it doesn’t look like this part of the equation will turn in PNX’s favor any time soon.

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The End game has begun. Stagflationary 1972-73 Price pump or Deflationary 2008 bust.? I am prepared for both ;)

Disclaimer :
Apologies beforehand for a lot of verbose because of the final newsletter. For quick read up i suggest reading "Tl;dr section" ( headings ) and for the reasons behind it are included in the detailed "Experiment section".

Intro:

“I felt a great disturbance in the force as if millions of voices slowly and wildly got together and then there was an uprising against the government and the financial institutions”

Sorry guys, I was supposed to send this the day before yesterday ( great movie ) but unfortunately I got caught up in a celebration we are having over here.
So it's the start of the weekend. Y’all know what that means. I'm not talking about having a party lol, that is for me. You guys have to decipher this long post so that you can protect yourself from the upcoming danger that I am seeing. In short you’re fucked if you don’t read this especially institutions and hedge funds. Just for this week please avoid strip clubs. This one's for you guys because you read my post. ( I like to think so )
Retail public especially retards i don’t have words for you guys. You guys can chill this weekend because all you do is sh9t on my post. Might as well sh9t on this too. I don’t care since all you’re obsessed with is Ryan Cohen and $BBBY. So when you’re finally over him after getting drunk this weekend then you can go ahead and read this post. Could be worth your time.

As for people asking me why I don't give my opinions regarding meme stocks. Well folks the reason is simple. We are still in a bear market according to my calculations. So it's written somewhere in the gospel of investing that bear markets are the opportunities to analyze value companies, not meme companies which are about to be purge in the upcoming mega crash as an offering to please the gods of stock market.
Yes you “You-tube” folks the crash hasn’t even started yet. We still have -53% to go from here till March 2023 as my base case. Don't even ask me about my worst case. For that just open the Dow Jones 1929-1932 chart.

Tl;dr and Td;du folks : ( Too long didn't read, Too dumb didn’t understand )
We have already discussed this : Buy 4 months/2 months/1 months puts i.e Dec 30/Oct 29/Sept 29 at the money with strike price near about "200 day moving average = 200dMA" in $SPY last week of august if it comes.
It already did one time on August 16 and i think the top is already in. So you’re gonna profit regardless.
Invalidation would be three white soldier candles above 200dMA of course in daily chart. For positions go scroll down. ( I will make you work for it at-least. xD )

We have a long way to go friends.

Now for those folks who want a detailed explanation about everything let’s dive in.
Respected Traders and Investors,

How are you guys doing? It’s been a long time hasn’t it. God I was gone for a while and had Ni-san use my Reddit account for a few days. First of all, I'm gonna apologize for the Shzio post by my brother Itachi. Man, it felt like it messed up my brains for a while there. It was so damn trippy. So I highly highly advise you guys not to go and read it a second time. Please, it's for your own health.
Regardless i love my brother analysis coz he thinks like no other normal people do in the world of trading/investing. So, I take full responsibility for my actions and if things don't go as planned out in the above charts ( i.e the mega crash doesn’t happen you know ) then you’re not gonna hear from us.
P.s. We promised you that we will do these posts only in bear markets. Even if the USA goes into depression for 10 to 15 years we will post in a week or two until we visit ath ( all time high ) once again. One may ask why not do this stuff in the bull market? Guys you have to understand we are not bull market specialists. For bull markets it's generally advised to follow moon boys on twitter, tik-tok, You-tube etc. They are more educated and well informed than us in that department with a huge audience behind them. ( They spend so much on marketing lol )

Recap : Predictions 2022 so far.
I don’t usually like to do this because my readers already know about this but it’s time to back-test how accurate we ( i.e. me and my brother ) have been this whole time especially to show random people who are new to reading these kinds of posts especially when it’s season finale.

We predicted the March 16 post Fomc rally.

https://preview.redd.it/6n7xv1xs52j91.png?width=1851&format=png&auto=webp&s=ef518b9218d0bc29d830fc61927009ece8a66438

We predicted the April top. Thought it was gonna last two to three days more but it lasted just one.

https://preview.redd.it/ictvxtex52j91.png?width=622&format=png&auto=webp&s=1905d15b9028016b853e12dd817097c285d2eac7

Then we predicted June Fomc bottom which we already mentioned in our first letter. Does “Dante cash deployment $SPX $3600-3700 at trend based 1 fib” ring a bell. ( But then later i said to just sell above 2% because Cpi 8.8% est and Atlanta Fed Gdp -2.1% est scared the sh9t out of me and i changed my strategy from "Riding to the top of the Bear market rally" to "Shorting at the top of bear market rally" )

https://preview.redd.it/brojy4p462j91.png?width=743&format=png&auto=webp&s=a96db2532fe7643a3b03e3f2293102e8c28a06e2

And now we finally did the same for August top at 15/16 i.e. 200dMA/ 50-61.8% fib retrace which is just a follow up to above June Fomc bottom. post.

https://preview.redd.it/da60ccei62j91.png?width=818&format=png&auto=webp&s=ce9e342a4a1f31b7ed9cd4931c8511bdd9368ae5

And then there were bond, commodity, Dxy calls that we are not even mentioning.
What this all means is that the stock markets have been performing as we had hoped for since February which is like 6-7 months ago. So i guess we are not a broken clock and actually do provide the exact days or should i say the time horizon.

Am I a member of secret society i.e. "Illuminati” or have contacts in "Pay pal mafia" ?
No guys. I am not a member of secret society nor do i have any contacts. My brother do though. I do want to manage the portfolio of wealthy clients like my brother someday but I'm too lazy. I just want to take bets and watch anime and Tv shows my entire life. I just finished West world and now i guess i will watch episode 1 of “House of dragons”. ( Why did that producer said bad things about Emilia. Hmm ) As for anime recommendation man its getting hard to find good ones. I'm just waiting for Chainsaw man now.

About my self.
Before all of this I was a Computer Science student whose only good skill was learning a hybrid application development platform called Flutter ( By Google ) but now I just write detailed and boring posts on Wall Street bets about anything that comes to my mind for you guys. My predictions come right because of you folks so thank you for taking trades and also I just basically copy pasted 2008 charts ( 32nd death week ) like I do with Git-hub while programming.

Now will I be wrong in the future?
Of course I will be. I’m no economist. I just make cases i.e stock market = 1972-73 or 2008 and just bet on them. Also a big hedge fund guy might find my post someday and take the opposite trade against me wrecking people who followed my advice.
Hence i always tell you guys “Do your own research“ “This is not financial advice” even though it will be right most of the time. You absolutely should not follow anybody w/o checking out at-least 10 other guys.

Why take my advice ?
So now that we have cleared some of the confusion which I couldn't in my Wsb guest talk appearance you might be thinking why we should even consider your advice in the top 10 folks we watch. You’re a nobody. Well folks in my defense i would say it's because I gradually improved myself. Earlier my posts were shitty but now they are getting better especially my T.A. And I'm also learning economics day by day. Do you know guys I didn't wanted to write this as final post coz I was actually busy working on other post like “Deciphering Stagflation 70's” and “Thermodynamics in Economics” as my farewell post. Yes it's true guys the US economy is one giant open system. That’s how Elon Musk and Jerome Powell do calculations about economics. xD
Well enough spoilers about the next season. I know you guys are getting bored. So lets now finally jump in what i wanted to actually talk about.

Experiment :
Deriving conclusions about Nasdaq, S&P500 and rest other asset classes using other asset classes on weekly and monthly charts. I know it sounds insane right now but you will see. So just trust me on this. (My grammar is so poor)

Tools :”
I mean the Technicals i will be using today includes :
-> Candle sticks
-> Elliot wave with Fibonacci
-> Stochastic Rsi
-> My favorite which never ever lies : Pvt(O)
-> At last my “Ketlner channels”

Procedure :

Step 1 : Forex Markets

Eur-usd

Eur-usd : Have you ever seen such a bearish chart in your life both on a weekly and monthly basis? I mean as much as I love European countries but I have to say your Eur-usd charts sucks equally much. Putin owns you guys this winter. Italy and Germany are already suffering so much with 10x bills gas + electricity if compared with 2021 so i can't even imagine about countries like Spain, Greece etc. Okay so I'm gonna stop myself now with the pessimism and dive into Technicals.

Weekly Time Frame Analysis : ( Left chart )

Eur-usd bull traders have to stop this deadly weekly close otherwise the whole world is f’ed.
Elliot wave C wants to go 1.618 i.e. 0.924.
Stochastic RSI are about to cross weekly and go down.
Pvt(O) if it crosses the blue line and heads down means game over.’
We aren’t even testing the Ketlner red upper band. That’s how bearish we are.

Monthly Time Frame Analysis : ( Right chart )

Eur-usd bull traders couldn't stop monthly support i.e 1.03. Rejected it, retested it from below and rejected it again. The double top at 1.24 was deadly too coz you know when we break the support at 1.03 you go down equally much. Hence those red vertical lines.
Elliot wave C wants to go 1.618 i.e. 0.81487 so is 0.834 vertical red line support.
Stochastic RSI is in deep water. You ain't coming out of there any time soon before weekly readjusts.
Pvt(O) wants to do nothing and stay flat for a while.
We are hanging on the Ketlner upper red band.

Result : I can confidently say with 1000% certainty that Eur-usd is going down. Thank you madam Lagarde. You’re doing such a fine job by selling German Bund and buying Italian bonds. Congratulations to you and your PEP tool (Lol, guys this woman is bat-sh9t crazy)

Gbp-usd

Gbp-usd : Well first Sir Mr Bailey. I have to say I'm a big fan of your honesty if you are reading this. I mean in today's world it's hard to find someone that honest in a government job. So guys we know inflation is double digit’s over here ( heading to 13% or was it 15% in coming months ) and in September the Bank of England is going with 50 bps. So we already know that Uk is gonna have more than 2Q of -ve Gdp. I hope you Uk folks survive considering you're gonna lose jobs, probably go into economic depression because recession is everybody’s base case even of Mr Bailey. So enough details let’s do analysis.

Weekly Time Frame Analysis : ( Left chart )

Gbp-usd is in a huge IHS pattern but that doesn’t mean it will go to the upside that easily. Currently the price is testing right shoulder at 1.19. If it breaks then the price will test the head 1.14 and if it doesn’t break and holds then the price will go to 1.42 to test the neckline. After that we shall see whether the IHS breaks or not. Also the volume is supporting the down move.
There is no Elliot wave here. But the key thing to note is that if 1.14 breaks then you’re heading to 0.87 levels. Reason being two vertical red lines should be equal.
Stochastic RSI has crossed weekly and is about to go down.
Pvt(O) if it crosses the blue line and heads down means game over. If it doesn’t break only then you have a chance of at-least going to the neckline.
The price action has occupied the whole Ketlner red band. Meaning we are in a bearish downtrend.

Monthly Time Frame Analysis : ( Right chart )

Just remember we are in the box lock of 1.14 to 1.42 range. The increasing volume is also supporting this downwards move. If i don't take any wicks into consideration then it looks like the price has broken 61.8% fib and would likely head downwards to 1 fib cause there is no support of candle closing. So watch out for monthly close here as well and an eye on higher high volume. Also don't forget those red vertical lines. 1.72 - 1.42 , 1.42 - 1.14, so 1.14 - XXX. Do the math.
12345 was completed in Oct 2007 ( Yah that old ) From then we are in the ABC corrective wave. Elliot wave C is still deciding what’s gonna happen with IHS. If it breaks down you’re looking at 0.95.
Stochastic RSI is in deep water. You ain't coming out of here any time soon.
Pvt(O) wants to do nothing and stay flat.
We are hanging on the Ketlner red upper band.

Result : I can confidently say Gbp-usd is going down. Mr Soros if you’re listening to this, let's break the “Bank of England” once again. Just for good old times sake.

Usd-Jpy

Usd-jpy : If i tell you anything about this forex pair I’m probably Bs’ing you. It’s true guys. Even Mr Kuruda the governor of Boj doesn’t know where the Usd-jpy is gonna go. But what we can speculate is if the dollar becomes so much stronger due to the weakness in the Eur-usd equation then Dxy is gonna pump past 110 and the dollar becomes stronger. Got it. So I could easily play this approach into my thesis by telling you yes this pair is just gonna go up. But I will not do that. Instead I'm gonna play a devil’s advocate here saying Usd-jpy will go down. So let’s analyze things which are a total waste of your and my time because I'm gonna reverse this forex you will see how.

Weekly Time Frame Analysis : ( Left chart )

Traders watch the 136. It’s a critical resistance. A clean break of it would mean 148 otherwise we go 125.
Elliott wave 12345 is complete at 136 and now we go for the ABC corrective wave. A will hit you at 116 and the rest is just a made up wave.
Stochastic RSI is on bottom and will go up.
Pvt(O) too looks like it could go up.
Here in this Ketlner channel we are hanging on a lower green band. That’s how bullish we are but I have chosen to take the bear case.

Monthly Time Frame Analysis : ( Right chart )

Traders watch the monthly close. If it closes above 136 we go to 148 otherwise down.
Elliott wave 12345 is complete at 136 wave. Entire ABC is made up because it all depends on the monthly close.
Stochastic RSI is on top flying and looks overbought but who can argue with their unlimited bond buying which in turn has caused the parabolic move.
Pvt(O) too looks like it could touch the blue line. If it crosses we fall, if not we go up.
Here in this Ketlner channel we are on an upper green band. That’s how extremely bullish we are but I have chosen to take the bear case.

So since I took the bear case it doesn't look like any bearish to me. Don't you agree? So our devil in devil’s advocate looks weak. So to fit our thesis lets reverse this. This is kinda like physics or Math kind of stuff where we proof things by assuming inverse.

Result : I cannot confidently say but I will say Jpy-usd is going up to 148 at my favorite dot com times where Dxy went 120. Hence i’m selling my Yen trust with ticker $FXY.

Step 2 : DXY. A basket of forex currencies.

You must be wondering, I'm gonna introduce another colorful RGB crayon drawing chart on both weekly and monthly. Sorry to disappoint you folks but I'm not doing that. Instead let’s use our brains.
We know that US dollar Index i.e. Dxy is used to measure the value of the dollar a/g basket of 6 currencies. The Euro, Swiss Franc, Japanese Yen, Canadian Dollar, British pound and Swedish krona. Now I'm not gonna explain you here why dollar is global reserve currency or dollar has more liquidity so let’s just assume that.

So what happens now is when Eur-usd becomes weaker, investors usually go risk off and buy the safest asset in the world i.e Dollar. Hence the Dxy goes stronger which suggests the dollar is getting stronger coz european buddies will exchange for dollars coz its very liquid and due to interest rate differentials. ( Remember Gbp-usd is an exception to interest rate differential coz what's happening over there is interest rates will go up but their currency is still losing its strength )

We have discussed a thesis in past letters already and came to a conclusion and I quote.
“Eur-usd is a mirror image of the Dxy chart.” Remember this for your lifetime. Especially you Gen-z.

I wasn’t gonna post a chart but then I realized I should for new folks who are lazy to read past posts. Eur-usd breaks parity and goes 0.80 levels Dxy will be 120 for sure. In monthly Dxy is super bullish. And on a weekly basis it's trying to close above 107 i believe. Hence your Voldemort asset class dropped -8% i guess. Right ?

Mirror chart : DXY vs Eur-usd

Result : I can confidently say Dollar or DXY is getting stronger in comparison to Euro, Gbp and Jpy. Hence DXY to 120 is back on the table according to the “20yrs of wyckoff accumulation” pattern. If you cleanly break 110-112 i must say equities especially the Spx is gonna visit to my $3200 level.
Now some Cnbc or Bloomberg guys who stole my research and didn’t gave me credit 2-3 months ago used to come on tv and say things like “Oh in 2018 Spx visited 200wMA so it makes sense that this cycle which is even more tightening compared to last makes sense to visit this range.”
So folks now the Spx has shifted its 200wMA/50mMA = $3500-$3600. But these clowns oops economists don't know that we should take a look at the monthly chart. Once you open that. Your pants are about to drop coz in the last tightening we visited not 200wMA but 100 monthly moving average i.e 100mMA. Yeah let’s go visit makachev vs oliviera in oct 23rd ufc 280. So if we cross paths over there I will tell you we are going to Spx $2873 i.e. somewhere around $2800-2900 which my close friend Dr Burry suggested too. Hence he sold + he is shorting coz he has relieved every moment in 2008. So he knows what’s coming next. You guys don’t.

Step 3 :Eur-usd Implied Fed funds 100-CME:GEZ2023 ( Not gonna use Elliot wave + Fib trend starting here now )

This is like gonna be super high level stuff even far above my pay grade. Only Zoltan can explain this using repo markets but since he is busy I will try to explain it in a funny way. So if you might have watched Cnbc this past week two economists were arguing about how Fed funds have priced in 4% already but one might be saying no it has only priced in 3.4-3.5%. So who is right?

If you watch “Everything money” by my suggestion then Mo came to the conclusion that the reason he is saying 4% is because the Fed is doing QT + rate hikes which Mo still does not believe.

So who is right and what is the right explanation for 4% ?
Imo they both are right but the explanation is wrong. The reason one should present about the 4% Fed funds argument is that in Eur-usd implied Fed funds went to 4%. Hence the market has priced 4% in the euro dollar banking system. But if you take only the dollar banking system in Usa then we look at yields of 2 yr and 10 yr which are hinting that Fed funds 3.4-3.5% is already priced in by the markets.

Eur-usd implied Fed funds.

Monthly and weekly time frame analysis :

Both look strong on a monthly and weekly basis. If monthly candle closes above resistance i.e. 3.50 this month then we are looking past 4% Eur-usd implied fed funds
Stochastic Rsi on weekly and crossed and is heading up while on monthly they are about to cross and hover above for a while.
Pvt(O) on weekly looks promising as compared to monthly.
Both of them don’t wanna lose their lower green Ketlner band.

Result : I can confidently say that we are going up here technically. So J. Powell, could you please back me up on this. Zoltan agrees with me. Snyder doesn’t.
( Just remember implied fed funds can go up due to Eur-usd weakness. So its kinda like indirect interest rate hike for markets. Add QT on top of that. Hence Fed is dovish in Fomc minutes for rate hikes )

Step 4 : HYG & LQD : The corporate bonds

HYG

Hyg : This product is designed to replicate a benchmark which provides a broad representation of the U.S. dollar-denominated high yield liquid corporate bond market. The high yield bond space has been cracked wide open by ETFs, as these products have offered numerous ways for investors to take advantage of this space. High yields can be a great addition to a yield-starved portfolio, as they can offer yields into the double digits for those willing to take on the risks that come along with it. The high returns come from riskier bond choices who have to pay out higher ratios to compensate investors for high risks. This means that the holdings of these ETFs will have higher chances of defaults, and could potentially leave investors out to dry. But those who have done their homework on the holdings of a particular “junk” bond fund have the ability to generate strong returns from these powerful products. HYG keeps most of its assets inside of the U.S., though it does offer a slice of international exposure as well. The ETF is dominated by corporate bonds, the majority of which have investment grades between B and BB. This product will make a great income addition to any investor who is fully aware of the risks a high yield bond product carries.

Weekly time frame analysis :

Weekly is gonna print bearish engulfing candle. Also there is a volume divergence. Price going up but volume going down which leads to fall. Trend line break candles will be the nail on the coffin.
Stochastic Rsi on weekly crossed and now are heading down.
Pvt(O) on weekly is also done after releasing supply and now will head down to accumulation..
Ketlner middle line changing band rejected the price action suggesting bearish continuation.

Monthly time frame analysis :

Monthly rejected its previous to previous top of the candle and is gonna print another st. down red monthly. Again price ascending volume declining.
But interestingly stochastic Rsi on monthly going up..
Pvt(O) on monthly also about to cross its blue line later sometimes.
As for Ketlner, well it's pretty much occupying the entire red lower band.

LQD : I leave it up to you guys. Cmon at least do one.

Result : I cannot confidently say that we are going down on a monthly time frame ( i need to see more data ) but yah sure on weekly we are going down because of that deadly candle that folks have been talking about.

Step 5 : IEI/HYG : Government bond price / Corporate bond price.

IEI/HYG : Double check below thing.

IEI/HYG : If it goes up then credit spreads are widening. ( Bad thing i.e risk off )
IEI/HYG : If it goes down then credit spreads are tightening. ( Good thing i.e. risk on )

Weekly time frame analysis :

Weekly is about to print a bullish engulfing candle. Also volume isn’t supporting downwards move i.e. price is going down but volume is going down as well.
Stochastic Rsi on weekly crossed and now are heading up.
Can't comment about Pvt(O) weekly. Mixed signals
Ketlner middle line changing band supported the price action and is green. Meaning bullish continuation

Monthly time frame analysis :

No complete data on monthly that we can make assumptions.
But stochastic Rsi crossed on monthly and suggested going down.
Pvt(O) flat.
As for Ketlner, well we had rejection from an extremely bullish green band i.e. we haven't gotten permission for capitulation but we got support from middle Ketlner to make the price go up again.

Result : I cannot confidently say that we are going up on a monthly time frame ( i need to see more data ) but yah sure on weekly we are going up.

Step 6 : ( Super scary ) : Velocity of m2 or m1 money supply i.e v = us gdp / m1 or m2.

Velocity of M2

This is a very debatable topic. Only the pros have the right to argue about this stuff and no one else. Peter lynch once told me during my time travel visit that people worry that the velocity of money supply is going up way too fast then we are gonna have depression and if the velocity of money supply goes down then too we are gonna have depression. So which one is it?

Anyways Q3 2020 : 1.149 was the highest reading. Currently we are trying to break it. Q2 2022 : 1.147

"The velocity of money is the frequency at which one unit of currency is used to purchase domestically- produced goods and services within a given time period. In other words, it is the number of times one dollar is spent to buy goods and services per unit of time. If the velocity of money is increasing, then more transactions are occurring between individuals in an economy. This is called an expanding economy." ~ By Fred website.

So go out there and ask your banking friends and tell them please explain the concept of money supply in today's terms. Not an old term. So I too went to my brother for advice. He told me “ F off “

Result : “F off”

Step 7 : Gold

We are not gonna do weekly and monthly time frame analysis on this. Some of you guys may be like “Dude, I'm an old man with agricultural land. I wanna own gold like my ancestors from 18th century coz i believe in stagflation, parabolic move, end of the world, negative debasement hedge blah blah” So i need charts.

Old man's Gold :
Old man you need to chill. We are gonna use our brain like Peter Schiff. So we know, gold doesn't love that his nemesis dollar is going up. Now if you can tell me how high Dxy will go up then i can tell you that the top of Dxy will be the bottom of Gold. Also gold doesn’t love financial crisis or bank runs. In my world gold is a phoenix who rises from ashes. Meaning if we plunge into the abyss then gold is gonna drag us out of there first. Then indices move and other asset classes.

Digital Gold :
As for young folks, you love the King of Voldemort asset class don’t you? So go buy it at amazon bottom i.e. $4-5k or my favorite Richard heart level -83% i.e 10,690. Or if you really don't have the patience like probably 99% of the entire world population you buy some % of this commodity for whatever reasons these guys are selling you at $20k. I shall rest my case now.

Result : Dollar i.e. Dxy up = Gold down and vice versa.

Step 8 : TLT/JNK : It’s kinda like IEI/HYG

Can you guys do this please?
Hint : Bullish divergence on weekly and monthly. Meaning TLT ( 20yr treasury bond etf by black rock ) buying over Junk bonds i.e. JNK

Step 9 : US Oil.

Let's go Brandon and the government. Just how much are you gonna manipulate the best inflation hedge alive. You guys have already killed my Gold. Yes you J.P. Morgan traders, I hate you. May your bank dies in upcoming crash and have Panic of 2023 just like Knickbocker crisis in 1907. Only then I shall have my vengeance a/g those rumors you circulated back in the days.
So guys you probably would know this that our Usa Government try to manipulate oil market just to please people and ask for votes. These are some of their stupid tactics.

Releasing SPR ( i.e. Strategic petroleum reserve ) in the market.
Pressurizing Saudis to find oil. ( Btw Saudi Armaco alone made profits greater than all Usa mega cap tech combined )
Windfall taxes on Oil companies.
Distributing E.V. credits to people. But even E.V. companies are smart. They instead increase their price. Ford I mean what the f you guys are doing.

This is the most manipulated market I have ever seen in my 100 yr+ of lifetime. So traders if your conclusion from my above observation was that we should short Oil lemme tell you something in double quotes.
“Be afraid of Putin’s Winter Oil boogeyman”. "Contango is a dangerous thing that futures creates"

You don’t short Oil in winter. Period. Heck you shouldn’t even trade Oil. Only the expert can do this because it's called “Widow Maker” i.e. the losses in this commodity trading could be catastrophic planetary devastation like.

Tip : Btw currently oil is in downwards wedge and it could break to upside and we go up in winter but Oil too like gold doesn't love Dxy going up. So kinda mixed signals i guess. Let's see who shall prevail bulls or bears of oil.

Result : Dollar i.e. Dxy up = Oil down and vice versa but Winter is coming/ Contango = Maybe Oil up.

Step 10 : Powell curve i.e.10 yr - 3 month, 2 yr - 3 month ( Pvt(o) and Elliot wave doesn't work here )

Do you guys remember the talk we had with Powell earlier this year when he was trying to explain us that the inversion of the 10 yr - 2 yr curve doesn't mean anything and unless the near term curve inverts it's all okay. Well folks Powell near time curves are close to getting inverted. Therefore you’re seeing these Fed officials talk dovish recently. Coz if they invert Fed will lose their remaining 0.0000001% credibility. So let’s analyze them on a weekly time frame because on a monthly time frame they look super super bearish to me and there is no chance that the curve won’t invert at some point later on.

J Powell/ Fed Curves : Us10y-Us03m , Us02y-Us03m

Weekly time frame analysis :

The current weekly candle in both curves are going to close lower than previous week which could suggest further downside risk.
Stochastic Rsi on 10yr-3m looks flat dead whereas on 2yr-3m it looks like it is rising.
MacD in both of them is showing us that the downwards declining move is losing its strength.
As for Ketlner, well in both of them they are staying in the lower red band suggesting they are still in a bearish trend.

Larry Summers former Fed chairman came recently to Bloomberg saying that the Fed has shown in latest minutes that they don’t even know what they are doing. Hence they Bs’ing us in their statement. I mean guys just read these hawkish and dovish points yourself. Also do check out the hidden statements in minutes which are pieces of advice for billionaires about liquidity and t-bills. Don’t forget my warning about bank runs. They are coming. My bet is Well’s Fargo Oct 2022/23 = Lehman brothers Oct 2008 or you could also go with lowest read by a bank in Fed stress test.

Hawkish vs Dovish vs Billionaire's ( Highlighted in blue ) Fed minutes.

As for individual bonds and overall yield curve :

Bonds :

Well 10 yr yields looks so good on both weekly and monthly time frame. So we go up in yields.
2 yr yields look so good on weekly and waiting for monthly close making it bullish. Meaning on September Fed is gonna be dead. ( Yields will rise meaning bond prices go down with stocks )

Note : Once again i'm telling yields is going up due to Eur-usd down i.e. Dxy up and markets front running 95B/m QT. We are quite unsure about rate hikes coz its nearly 50-50 b/w 50 and 75 bps. It will all depend on Cpi and Jobs data in September.

Institutions and Hf’s are also buying Chinese bonds like crazy or maybe Chinese themselves because of fear of recession and growth slowdown i.e. flight to safety trade. They have deflationary recession but the thing is they have balance sheet recession. So their government is creating a liquidity trap by cutting rates. But don't forget they can always do exuberance amount of liquidity coz they have very less inflation. In Usa you're getting rekt in both stocks and bonds.

Yield curve :

As for the entire yield curve here look at these beauties that Powell has created in these charts.

Credits : Eurodollar University. By Jeff Snyder

Note : Yield should be higher if the time horizon is higher. Meaning shorter end like 2 yr to 5 yr should yield less than 10 yr and 20 yr normally due to unknown risks associated in far future. But look here in these charts. A 52 w t-bill is yielding more than 20 yr and 10 yr bonds. That’s insane. It tells us there is a danger in next 1-2yrs as compared to far in future. The curve has gone banana's b/w 26 w t-bill to 10 yr bond. After 10 yr to 20 yr curve looks so good and why won't it. Because after the most horrible decade in entire history of Usa will come a little less horrible decade. Haha.

Result : I can confidently say yields are going up in respective bonds. But will basic yield curve i.e us10y-us02y will steepen or invert more is out of my pay grade.

Step 11 : VIX. It looks so ready to pop anytime.

I mean what do i even say here. This whole year traders are buying Vix calls in 20 and shorting equities and as the Vix goes 30 they sell their calls and buy puts. Meanwhile longing their equities position.
So smart Vix traders, it's time to integrate the mega crash in your calculations. Meaning do the first phase of second part but leave tf out of second phase of second part i.e. don't buy puts on Vix and don't try to long equity in 30 coz this time folks are going to promised Vix 40+.

Result : Vix is going up. Reason : It's mid terms + Putin x Jinpig x Biden at G8 = Volatility in Sept - Nov.

Conclusion :

Financial derivation = Take those steps into consideration that you are confident in your analysis.

So I chose my Eur-usd pokemon.
Reason : I am quite confident in my analysis and Lagarde. Plus Fed minutes made a commentary about this that dollar is looking so strong as comparison to Euro. Maybe this too played a part in their recent dovish commentary.

Assuming : Eur usd is going down coz Europe is f’ed. ( We were most confident about this in all of our steps. Also my birdie told me 0.93 eur-usd traders have risen from their grave in options market )

Above assumption ( proving in step 1 t.a. ) will mean :

Dxy go up due to the mirror chart theory. ( 0.80-0.90 levels in eur-usd = 120 move in Dxy )

So now equities, commodities, metals and rest other asset class will fall down.

But what about bonds?

Well when the dollar strengthens then the countries who have dollar denominated debts have to sell their bonds and buy new bonds to refinance. Something like that. I think i butchered it. But yah it happens. Other reason being when dollar strengthens due to ext factors then its kinda like a rate hike. So since bonds don't like rate hike they sell off. Now add QT on top of it i.e 95B/m + Us treasury will issue more long term bonds and cut treasury bill issuance. So 10yr to 20yr bond yields will go up.
So now remains the case for 2yr bonds. The Fed will hike rates but it's kinda hinting that they won't go aggressive now coz they don't wanna overshoot and bring depression. Hence the 2yr bond will not go up more than the back end i.e. 10yr bond. Meaning us10y-us02y will move from inversion territory to steepening territory.
T-bills is getting bought more instead of rrp. Hence t-bills are trading below rrp. Meaning billionaires or banks fear about incoming liquidity crisis or collateral shortage. So t-bills it is or cashola. Or you could go to a money market fund and park your money there coz banks don't give you anything. Let's cause bank run together next year.

Also vix will pop up in this scenario due to asset classes being sold off

The velocity of m2 is gonna go up suggesting economy expands. Nope. Imo its suggesting dollar milkshake theory coz m2 is going down. Less dollars will be in circulation but exchanges will remain same. ( Long shot. I really don't know. Just guessing )

Final Result :

Every step we proved above using technical analysis on weekly and monthly time frame is being backed by my financial derivation except one thing. Will us10y-us02y curve invert more or steepen.? Coz steepening is bad for dollar strength whereas more inversion is good for dollar strength i.e. Dxy.
P.s. I think i'm so confused. Damn these bonds are tough to read.

Note : I forgot Dr copper. Lol. Why is it going up when Gold and other metals is going down?
*** Illuminati said : "Coz Dxy move up or bond yields move up is not because of rate hikes. They all are priced in. It's because of pseudo rate hikes on the Global market that is causing dollar to strengthen. This is due to QT + Eur-usd , Gbp-usd going down. Throw Japanese yen in there too but its chart is going up coz its Usd-jpy pair not Jpy-usd. Just like i said before too.

Farewell :
Thank you guys for your patience in reading an 8yr old post with naruto references w/o even mentioning Naruto anywhere coz Itachi stole the show. xD I am so tired guys coz i was busy writing stuff for you guys whatever was coming to my mind and leaving no mistake in my final calculations.
Take care guys. I hope one of you becomes a billionaire in this Wsb group and then pump meme stock for future generations. So suck the life out of me in the comments section. I will reply to every single one of your queries one last time.
( Now playing David Guetta : Just one last time )

Again like i always say. Don't forget your friends and family. Call them once every week. Be humble, stay safe and eat healthy.

With lots of love
Regards
Uchiha

x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x
THE END

Sayonara...!!!

Ruforum 2020 - exeq.schmalz-shop.ru

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ULTIMATE Guide to Selling Options Profitably (PART 3) : The 6 Characteristics of an Option

This post will teach you the basics of how to properly conceptualize options in your mind.

It will then teach you how to translate the idea of what an option is into what you see in your brokerage.

Simply put, options are a financial instrument.

There are 6 characteristics of an option.

1) An option is a contract..

2) Created between two people..

3) That gives the purchaser the right to buy or sell a stock..

4) At a set price..

5) In a set time frame..

6) For a premium!

Now that we can visualize what an option looks like, let's learn some industry lingo.

1. Contract = option chain.

2. Two people = bid/ask.

3. Right to buy, right to sell = calls and puts.

4. A given price = strike price

5. Time frame = expiration date

6. Premium = Price

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