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![]() | First and foremost I would like to thank u/Naughty_Funkle_1992 & u/089jonas for their posts listed below: submitted by travis_b13 to Superstonk [link] [comments] https://www.reddit.com/Superstonk/comments/yjexhh/big_numbers_leaked_arechegos_basket_swaps/ https://www.reddit.com/Superstonk/comments/yi9b27/found_this_in_a_whistleblower_document_attached/ I decided to dive into the data that was listed in the lawsuit/comments, and boy of boy. It lists quite the information. I am also making the data public for everyone to see, and it can be found here: EDIT: WARNING!!! It has come to my attention that clicking on a Google dock can be tracked back to your google account if you are signed in (potentially doxing you). Click the next link at your own risk. EDIT 2: I edited the link to be a published link. It appears to be safer, but it can't be copied. I will gladly send anyone the link to the google sheets upon request (in case they want to copy the data) https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQRPJHxuuUxDt3cq7jtaKq3vTOtzYibSrBMfNsQ_OSyo6sZNC9ILR4oc5HITi9nQj9supfF4oHQBa1G/pubhtml Disclaimer: I am highly regarded, and I believe blue crayons taste the best, so take this as you want it. Alright, Let's go. I first input all the data form the two posts listed above into an Excel workbook. As an accountant, I thought it would be best to reconcile the two together to find any discrepancies between the numbers. The first thing I noticed is the Nominal value of the swaps did not add up perfectly between the two posts. However, since the post that has all they day by u/Naughty_Funkle_1992 had the Swaps broken down by Swap Counterparty and by the baskets, I decided to lean on that data a little more. For full disclosure the difference in the total Nominal value between the two posts was/is $525M (or about 1%), so both data sets are good enough to work with. Findings:
Table 1 Remember this is a hypothetical. There could have been ten to twenty stocks in those swaps, so let's try to find more reasonable numbers: Table 2 These appear somewhat more realistic, but again, we don't know what we don't know, and what we don't know is what comprised of those swaps. These are just hypothetical based on the data that we currently have. We can dive deeper though. We know that there are several counterparties to the swaps (at least six for these basket swaps), and we also know that these numbers only refer to Archegos. They do not contain the data for our friendly-neighborhood criminal Kenneth Griffin (who lied under oath to Congress, everyone) and Citadel, Virtu, State Street, etc. But what we do know is Credit Suisse seems to be on the hook for a lot of these swaps, so I'm assuming they are SC5 and/or SC6 from above. Diving deeper, we can extract the current nominal value of the swaps based on today's closing price. We can do that by taking the share count from above and multiplying by today's closing price of $26.64. Nominal value of swaps Let's have some fun and see the bigger percentages of the swaps. I give you: Nominal value of higher hypothetical percentages So if all the basket swaps (which probably vary from basket to basket by the way) all had 5% of GME, the nominal value today is $3.5B, but if they had 25% that nominal value would be $17B. It may not sound like a huge number in the grand scheme of things, but remember that retail has locked up $2.35B (as of today's closing price of $26.64 (which would be $3B if the price was closer to $34)). Also, this number is actually really high when considering that GME's market cap is only $8.1B today. Furthermore, this is only Archegos's swaps and doesn't include any data into swaps by Citadel, Virtu, State Street, etc., and Archegos is a drop in the bucket compared to how big those firms are. So even if Archegos was their size and they all were fairly equally short and if we only use the 5% from above and multiply it by 4 to include the three other firms just mentioned.... drum roll.... $14B minimal in swaps holding GME (almost twice the current market cap). Conclusion: There is definitely more data that can be extracted from what I have put together, but I only did what I could in a short amount of time, as I'm supposed to be working; however, I thought it was important to point out some data that I put together and share it with everyone. I also believe that this post right here is why the CFTC won't release swap data and isn't making anyone report swaps until 2025. It's because there are apes out there like me that love data and can decipher it down very quickly and methodically. In short, GME is definitely going to moon, and short r fuk, hedgies r fuk, and we moon soon. Power to the Players LFG! Cheers. |
![]() | Hello, submitted by bjean07 to u/bjean07 [link] [comments] This is a spreadsheet I made to easily keep track of my investments. I've decided to share it for free as a give back to the community. 𝐅𝐞𝐚𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞𝐬 ------------- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gIlkqdGDb8s 𝐇𝐨𝐰 𝐢𝐭 𝐰𝐨𝐫𝐤𝐬 (𝐆𝐮𝐢𝐝𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐜𝐥𝐮𝐝𝐞𝐝) -------------------------------------------
https://preview.redd.it/d1bvgiwp37y81.jpg?width=2700&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=90fcd61a71622af14c9b7f77cf5a7327187d7883 https://preview.redd.it/1tpypowp37y81.jpg?width=2700&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=8fa6aaa9ed872443c8a78da9b6789153cc205d2f https://preview.redd.it/lt6vdvwp37y81.jpg?width=2700&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b16babda036211fc1f05d215902ef6cc475907d5 https://preview.redd.it/vjb0bowp37y81.jpg?width=2700&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=49a92628e96751e9dadfb73f4d2c0e96a575f6b3 https://preview.redd.it/ougi2pwp37y81.jpg?width=2700&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=451592985bd401f9156c68df5a6cb771d00f2c2a 𝟏𝟕 𝐓𝐚𝐛𝐬/𝐒𝐡𝐞𝐞𝐭𝐬 ---------------------- (w/Automatic calculation unless stated otherwise) ✦ Dashboard ✦ Portfolio ✦ Desired Portfolio (Manual Input) ✦ Pies ✦ Allocation ✦ Tickers Info (Manual Input) ✦ Crypto and NFT Portfolios ✦ Transactions/Trades/Dividends History (Manual Input) ✦ Returns ✦ Dividends ✦ Calculators ✦ Valuation ✦ Screener ✦ Annual Reports ✦ Watchlist (Manual Input) ✦ Customization and Info ✦ Guide 𝐃𝐨𝐰𝐧𝐥𝐨𝐚𝐝 𝐋𝐢𝐧𝐤 ---------------------- https://www.dropbox.com/t/g2Bs0Ne0NsfcGdYj Scan Result: https://www.virustotal.com/gui/file/e83b9af6ae942d814bd061a12efca7d50aef634754c3e8a3456ad24be74090cd |
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